Market Form Morning Brief: Sunday 27 September 2026
Sunday 27 September 2026 · bookmaker prices only · historical context from the Market Form database.
Official non-runner price effects are measured and removed from signal calculations. Genuine market movement before and after each withdrawal is retained.
1. The market in 60 seconds
Strongest support: Silent Force — 15:34 Ffos Las · 4/7 → 2/5 · +7.73pp.
Biggest drift: Call Time — 14:24 Ffos Las NR-ADJUSTED · 5/6 → 10/11 · -12.17pp.
2. Three moves you need to know
Strongest support recorded across 11 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
Trainer context: David Flood has a baseline win rate of 10.9%. At 5pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 2/5 (40%) — an uplift of +29.1 points.
Strongest support recorded across 9 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
Trainer context: Mark Rimell has a baseline win rate of 9%. At 5pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 2/14 (14.3%) — an uplift of +5.3 points.
Trainer context: Andrew Balding has a baseline win rate of 19.4%. At 5pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 67/186 (36%) — an uplift of +16.6 points.
3. The market warning
Largest drift recorded across 6 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
A drift is not automatically a lay. The point is whether today's weakness resembles the markets in which this horse has previously failed — or whether it has historically ignored market weakness.
4. Trainer money: which yards are attracting support?
Strongest: Silent Force (15:34 Ffos Las) at +7.73pp.
Yard baseline: 19.4%. When receiving 5pp+ support by 1pm: 67/186 won (36%).
Strongest: Quite Cheeky (14:12 Epsom) at +7.67pp.
Yard baseline: 19.3%. When receiving 5pp+ support by 1pm: 38/123 won (30.9%).
Strongest: Pride Eye (17:19 Ffos Las) at +6.82pp.
Yard baseline: 9%. When receiving 5pp+ support by 1pm: 2/14 won (14.3%).
5. The race everyone should open
This is the most active race in the 9am snapshot: 4 meaningful market signals, including 2 supported and 2 drifting runners.
Key market activity: Pride Eye (+6.82pp) · The Ormer Gatherer (+4.17pp) · Wellwhatshappenin (-7.43pp) · Georg Zhukov (-7.22pp).
6. The historical signal of the morning
Today's move sits in the 100th historical percentile for this horse at the comparable morning stage. Only 0 of 6 previous runs produced a stronger move.
7. What to watch before 1pm
- Music And Song — if support reaches 10pp+, this yard's historical win rate rises to 66.7%.
- Pride Eye — if support reaches 10pp+, this yard's historical win rate rises to 20%.
- Silent Force — if support reaches 10pp+, this yard's historical win rate rises to 40%.
Every runner. Live bookmaker prices. Historical market comparisons. Trainer behaviour. Delivery levels. The full market journey as it develops through the day.
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