Market Form Morning Brief: Thursday 24 September 2026
Thursday 24 September 2026 · bookmaker prices only · historical context from the Market Form database.
Official non-runner price effects are measured and removed from signal calculations. Genuine market movement before and after each withdrawal is retained.
1. The market in 60 seconds
Strongest support: Poetic Twist — 13:39 Perth · 15/8 → 6/5 · +10.97pp.
Biggest drift: Awordinyourear — 14:32 Listowel · 5/2 → 100/1 · -28.42pp.
2. Three moves you need to know
Only 1 of 6 previous runs showed stronger support.
Historical percentile: 83th.
The stronger historical move was: 2nd at Windsor (29 Aug 26).
Historical delivery level: 1.74pp+. At that level or stronger, 3/4 finished first or second (75%). Today: reached.
Trainer context: Michael Keady has a baseline win rate of 5.6%. At 5pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 4/13 (30.8%) — an uplift of +25.2 points.
Only 1 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support.
Historical percentile: 86th.
The stronger historical move was: 2nd at Ayr (10 Feb 26).
Trainer context: Gordon Elliott has a baseline win rate of 12.9%. At 10pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 22/49 (44.9%) — an uplift of +32 points.
Strongest support recorded across 4 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
Historical delivery level: 2.69pp+. At that level or stronger, 2/3 finished first or second (67%). Today: reached.
Trainer context: Tom Clover has a baseline win rate of 15.9%. At 5pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 10/39 (25.6%) — an uplift of +9.7 points.
3. The market warning
Largest drift recorded across 4 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
A drift is not automatically a lay. The point is whether today's weakness resembles the markets in which this horse has previously failed — or whether it has historically ignored market weakness.
4. Trainer money: which yards are attracting support?
Strongest: Love Me Tender (16:52 Listowel) at +10.27pp.
Strongest: Chief Sunday (17:10 Perth) at +8.44pp.
Yard baseline: 9.5%. When receiving 5pp+ support by 1pm: 5/41 won (12.2%).
Strongest: Poetic Twist (13:39 Perth) at +10.97pp.
Yard baseline: 12.9%. When receiving 10pp+ support by 1pm: 22/49 won (44.9%).
5. The race everyone should open
This is the most active race in the 9am snapshot: 10 meaningful market signals, including 0 supported and 10 drifting runners.
Key market activity: Boston Rajj (-20.88pp) · Aurea Fortuna (-16.93pp) · Ripsnorter (-13.58pp) · Mart Lane (-5.56pp).
6. The historical signal of the morning
Today's move sits in the 100th historical percentile for this horse at the comparable morning stage. Only 0 of 4 previous runs produced a stronger move.
7. What to watch before 1pm
- Crowned — if support reaches 10pp+, this yard's historical win rate rises to 60%.
- Poetic Twist — watch whether the early move holds, strengthens or gives ground back as more bookmaker money arrives.
- Fuel The Jet — if support reaches 10pp+, this yard's historical win rate rises to 42.9%.
Every runner. Live bookmaker prices. Historical market comparisons. Trainer behaviour. Delivery levels. The full market journey as it develops through the day.
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