DC Market Intelligence Report –Aug 7, 2026
Yesterday ran 46 races / 369 runners / 46 winners. The strong steam filter (≥15% contraction from 10am → final) threw up a clear pattern: several aggressive collapses from big early prices, with Sligo and Southwell (AW) doing most of the damage.
Biggest contractions (10am → final):
– Saoirses Choice (Sligo): 51.00 → 15.00 (70.6%) | SP 15.00
– An Lachin Beag (Sligo): 29.00 → 11.00 (62.1%) | SP 11.00
– Titainium (Southwell AW): 26.00 → 10.00 (61.5%) | SP 8.50
– Mr Caulfield (Sligo): 29.00 → 13.00 (55.2%) | SP 15.00
– Fox Walk (Sligo): 11.00 → 5.00 (54.5%) | SP 4.33
– Thomas Tallis (Southwell AW): 26.00 → 12.00 (53.8%) | SP 12.00
Then a second tier of decisive halving-type moves:
– Magnum Cor (Leopardstown): 6.50 → 3.25 (50.0%) | SP 2.88
– Auburn Avenue (Chepstow): 13.00 → 6.50 (50.0%) | SP 6.00
– Let’s Dream (Southwell AW): 34.00 → 17.00 (50.0%) | SP 15.00
– Dingwall (Southwell AW): 9.50 → 5.00 (47.4%) | SP 5.00
– You Make Me Smile (Sligo): 10.00 → 5.50 (45.0%) | SP 6.00
– Omni Man (Leopardstown): 34.00 → 19.00 (44.1%) | SP 17.00
– Junkyard Dog (Southwell AW): 17.00 → 9.50 (44.1%) | SP 10.00
– The Holy Apostle (Leopardstown): 26.00 → 15.00 (42.3%) | SP 15.00
– Foscarini (Brighton): 7.50 → 4.33 (42.3%) | SP 4.00
Execution note: a few of these moves didn’t just shorten—they shifted materially into a different win-probability bracket (e.g., 51s into 15s; 26s into 10–12s). That’s “opinion money”, not background noise.
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## 2) Landed vs Went Astray – keep it ruthless
### Landed (steam + win)
Only one of the listed strong steamers in the recap set actually won:
– Junkyard Dog (Southwell AW): 17.00 → 9.50 (44.1%) | SP 10.00 | won
That’s the cold read: the day produced plenty of heat, but conversion at the very top of the steam table was poor.
Separately, the “Landed” list shows multiple winners that steamed (but not necessarily meeting the “strong” threshold presented above). Those included:
– Ethical Diamond (Leopardstown): 2.63 → 1.91 (27.4%) | SP 2.10 | won
– Hear The Drums (Southwell AW): 6.00 → 4.00 (33.3%) | SP 3.75 | won
– Solar Edge (Chepstow): 4.50 → 3.00 (33.3%) | SP 2.88 | won
– Dream Of Ithaca (Brighton): 4.00 → 2.75 (31.3%) | SP 2.88 | won
– Serenity Dream (Brighton): 7.50 → 5.00 (33.3%) | SP 5.00 | won
(plus others in the provided landed list)
Takeaway: winners existed in the steam universe, but the hardest/most dramatic collapses were not the ones cashing.
### Went astray (steam + loss)
The “false steamer” list is essentially the story of the day: the biggest collapses failed.
Key damage points:
– Saoirses Choice: 51.00 → 15.00 (70.6%) | pos 9
– Titainium: 26.00 → 10.00 (61.5%) | pos 6
– Mr Caulfield: 29.00 → 13.00 (55.2%) | pos 2 (closest of the major plunges)
– Fox Walk: 11.00 → 5.00 (54.5%) | pos 3
– Thomas Tallis: 26.00 → 12.00 (53.8%) | pos 3
– Magnum Cor: 6.50 → 3.25 (50.0%) | pos 4
– Auburn Avenue: 13.00 → 6.50 (50.0%) | pos 5
– Let’s Dream: 34.00 → 17.00 (50.0%) | pos 10
– Dingwall: 9.50 → 5.00 (47.4%) | pos 2
– You Make Me Smile: 10.00 → 5.50 (45.0%) | pos 3
The blunt assessment: the market was active, but the headline steam didn’t equal results. If you chased every collapse blindly, yesterday was a reminder of what that costs.
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## 3) Trainer & Jockey Support – who the money followed repeatedly
### Trainers most supported (from strong steamers)
– Joseph Patrick O’Brien: 3 backed / 0 won
– W P Mullins: 2 backed / 2 won
– Noel C Kelly: 2 backed / 0 won
– Tim Easterby: 2 backed / 0 won
– John J Cullen: 2 backed / 0 won
– Stuart Williams: 2 backed / 0 won
Singles with perfect conversion (1 backed / 1 won):
– Iain Jardine, Scott Dixon, Tony Carroll, Richard & Peter Fahey, Christopher Mason, Charlie Fellowes
This is clean: Mullins was the only multi-runner yard where the support translated perfectly (2-from-2). The rest of the repeated stables drew money but didn’t deliver.
### Jockeys most supported (from strong steamers)
– Ben Coen: 2 backed / 1 won
– Dylan Browne McMonagle: 2 backed / 0 won
– Jason Hart: 2 backed / 0 won
– David Allan: 2 backed / 0 won
– J M Sheridan: 2 backed / 0 won
– Thomas O’Connor: 2 backed / 0 won
Singles with perfect conversion (1 backed / 1 won):
– Andrew Mullen, Christian Howarth, Brian Hayes, Jack Doughty, Oisin Orr, Gina Mangan
Read it as follows: repeated jockey support mostly didn’t pay yesterday, with the exception of Coen (split) and the single-hit winners.
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## 4) What It Means – practical execution & discipline, no fluff
1) Do not confuse size of move with certainty. Yesterday’s most violent contractions were the worst performers. The edge is in treating steam as information, not a “must back”.
2) Separate “steam quality” from “steam price”. Several winners came from the broader steamed cohort (e.g., 27–33% type moves), while the ultra-hard collapses (50–70%) mostly missed. That’s not a rule—just what yesterday priced in.
3) Respect stable patterns, but demand proof. W P Mullins (2/2) is the only repeat-supported trainer that actually converted cleanly. Everyone else on the repeat list took money without delivering. Use repeated support as a flag, not a trigger.
4) Process over hero bets. If you’re going to act on steam, yesterday argues for disciplined entry rules (price bands, staking limits, and consistent selection) rather than chasing the most dramatic chart on the board.
This is market intelligence, not a guarantee. Steam identifies where money went and when—nothing more.
CTA: Run today’s card through the Today’s Qualifiers Tool and focus on the clean, rule-compliant movers rather than the loudest plunges.
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### Data Appendix (auto)
– Report generated: 2026-08-07 22:10:05
– Yesterday: 2026-08-06
– Strong steamer threshold: 15%
– Races: 46
– Runners: 369
– Strong steamers listed: 20
– Landed: 11
– Missed: 47
– False steamers (listed): 10
– Trainers in support table: 12
– Jockeys in support table: 12
– Qualifiers provided today: 0
**Today CTA:** https://dc-network.co.uk
## 🟢 Today’s Live SP Qualifiers
Live qualifiers update automatically inside the tools below:
📉 10am Market Plunge List
Horses heavily backed last time and historically profitable to oppose next run.
📊 Market Form Lay Angles
Big drifters and weak market profiles to oppose at SP.
These tools update automatically throughout the day as qualifiers appear.
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### Data Appendix (auto)
– Report generated: 2026-08-07 22:10:05
– Yesterday: 2026-08-06
– Strong steamer threshold: 15%
– Races: 46
– Runners: 369
– Strong steamers listed: 20
– Landed: 11
– Missed: 47
– False steamers (listed): 10
– Trainers in support table: 12
– Jockeys in support table: 12
– Qualifiers provided today: 0
**Today CTA:** https://dc-network.co.uk
