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OPEN MARKET FORM →| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,618 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,263 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,015 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 7,154 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,209 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,096 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,280 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,957 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,052 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 912 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 715 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 40% | 27% | 669 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 507 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 587 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 44% | 32% | 23% | 527 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 26% | 18% | 589 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,604 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 2,504 |
| 4–6pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,754 |
| 6–8pp | 49% | 39% | 34% | 22% | 2,119 |
| 8–10pp | 46% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,830 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 17% | 1,310 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,156 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,096 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 3,569 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 3,053 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,402 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,009 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,545 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,254 |
| 12–15pp | 36% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 866 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 716 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,393 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,794 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,144 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,357 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 23% | 20% | 10% | 1,327 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 945 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 731 |
| 15pp+ | 34% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 556 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |
Cairdeas
Gelding2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Kieran O'Neill
Trainer
Paul Midgley🟢 BACK EARLY
|
10 | 9-7 | 65 | - | 4 |
Latest
52040
|
31d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-39% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Royal Accord
Gelding✓Distance winner7thBest on going |
Jockey
Marco Ghiani
Trainer
Peter Chapple-Hyam⚪ NO EDGE
|
11 | 9-9 | 67 | - | 4 |
Latest
20973
|
36d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-71.8% vs avg
|
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| 13 |
Thunderous Love
1st p✓✓Course + distance winner5thBest on going |
Jockey
Rob Hornby
Trainer
Jonathan Portman🟢 BACK EARLY
|
2 | 9-4 | 62 | P | 5 |
Latest
92294
|
15d |
OP 9.00↑ 6.50(27.8%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+65.2% vs avg
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| 4 |
Ingleby Archie
Gelding✓✓Course + distance winner✓Going winner
Ingleby Archie: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 20 Jun 2026 · NottinghamBacked by 11.1pp
Class 5 · Good
Opening price 4.50SP 3.00
|
Jockey
Jack Garritty
Trainer
Adrian Nicholls⚪ NO EDGE
|
5 | 9-10 | 68 | - | 5 |
Latest
13587
|
14d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+159.4% vs avg
|
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| 7 |
Tiriac
Gelding✓Distance winner6thBest on going |
Jockey
Oisin McSweeney
Trainer
Paul Midgley🟢 BACK EARLY
|
12 | 9-8 | 66 | - | 6 |
Latest
05656
|
18d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+28.9% vs avg
|
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| 10 |
Act of Violence
Gelding1st t✓Distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Silvestre De Sousa
Trainer
Tony Carroll🟢 BACK EARLY
|
9 | 9-5 | 63 | T | 5 |
Latest
41324
|
10d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+257.8% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Spirit of Applause
Gelding1st b✓Distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
David Allan
Trainer
Tim Easterby🟢 BACK EARLY
|
1 | 9-10 | 68 | B | 6 |
Latest
02245
|
16d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+204.5% vs avg
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| 14 |
Trafalger
Gelding1st tp2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Benoit de la Sayette
Trainer
Ben Case⚪ NO EDGE
|
8 | 9-2 | 60 | TP | 5 |
Latest
58552
|
19d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+226.4% vs avg
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| 2 |
Bright
Gelding✓Distance winner12thBest on going
Bright: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 29 Dec 2025 · Newcastle (AW)Backed by 9.8pp
Class 4 · Standard
Opening price 7.50SP 4.33
|
Jockey
Ray Dawson
Trainer
Mark Loughnane⚪ NO EDGE
|
4 | 9-12 | 70 | - | 6 |
Latest
07870
|
47d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+170.6% vs avg
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| 8 |
Imelda
3rdBest on going |
Jockey
Daniel Muscutt
Trainer
David Loughnane⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-7 | 66 | - | 3 |
Latest
23340
|
20d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+252.6% vs avg
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| 11 |
Crystal Dagger
1st v |
Jockey
Taryn Langley(5)
Trainer
Joey Ramsden🔵 SP VALUE
|
15 | 9-4 | 62 | V | 4 |
Latest
68488
|
72d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+311% vs avg
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| 1 |
Havanagreattime
Gelding✓Distance winner |
Jockey
James Sullivan
Trainer
Ruth Carr🟢 BACK EARLY
|
13 | 9-12 | 70 | - | 5 |
Latest
90980
|
13d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+44.8% vs avg
|
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| 15 |
Melissa Honey
✓✓Course + distance winner2ndBest on going
Melissa Honey: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 11 Aug 2026 · NottinghamBacked by 5.7pp
Class 5 · Good To Firm
Opening price 8.00SP 5.50
4 Jul 2026 · LeicesterBacked by 4.4pp
Class 6 · Good To Firm
Opening price 2.50SP 2.25
6 Jun 2026 · DoncasterBacked by 8.9pp
Class 6 · Good To Firm
Opening price 9.00SP 5.00
|
Jockey
David Probert
Trainer
Michael Herrington⚪ NO EDGE
|
14 | 9-0 | 58 | - | 4 |
Latest
21312
|
12d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+1032.3% vs avg
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| 12 |
Perineighs
11thBest on going |
Jockey
Dale Swift
Trainer
Seb Spencer⚪ NO EDGE
|
6 | 9-4 | 63 | - | 3 |
Latest
43094
|
26d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+252.3% vs avg
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| 6 |
Taaklam
Gelding1st p✓Distance winner5thBest on going
Taaklam: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 31 Aug 2026 · Southwell (AW)Backed by 8.3pp
Class 6 · Standard
Opening price 7.20SP 4.50
|
Jockey
Sean Dylan Bowen
Trainer
Harriet Bethell⚪ NO EDGE
|
7 | 9-8 | 67 | P | 3 |
Latest
57619
|
23d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+1717% vs avg
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Midgley | 224 | 30 | 97 | 13% | 0.96 |
| Peter Chapple-Hyam | 121 | 20 | 55 | 17% | 0.96 |
| Jonathan Portman | 144 | 8 | 37 | 6% | 0.56 |
| Adrian Nicholls | 40 | 4 | 15 | 10% | 0.62 |
| Tony Carroll | 314 | 17 | 70 | 5% | 0.65 |
| Tim Easterby | 619 | 56 | 192 | 9% | 0.82 |
| Ben Case | 14 | 2 | 7 | 14% | 1.42 |
| Mark Loughnane | 116 | 7 | 33 | 6% | 0.82 |
| David Loughnane | 91 | 10 | 23 | 11% | 1.11 |
| Joey Ramsden | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| Ruth Carr | 182 | 12 | 59 | 7% | 0.59 |
| Michael Herrington | 28 | 4 | 9 | 14% | 1.54 |
| Seb Spencer | 14 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 0 |
| Harriet Bethell | 16 | 2 | 4 | 12% | 0.89 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Midgley | 10 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Peter Chapple-Hyam | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Jonathan Portman | 17 | 1 | 6% | 3 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| Adrian Nicholls | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Tony Carroll | 36 | 5 | 14% | 4 (1W) | 2 (1W) |
| Tim Easterby | 104 | 19 | 18% | 19 (9W) | 7 (2W) |
| Ben Case | 3 | 1 | 33% | 1 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Mark Loughnane | 14 | 0 | 0% | 3 (0W) | 2 (0W) |
| David Loughnane | 11 | 0 | 0% | 4 (0W) | 2 (0W) |
| Joey Ramsden | 9 | 1 | 11% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Ruth Carr | 37 | 9 | 24% | 4 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| Michael Herrington | 14 | 3 | 21% | 5 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Seb Spencer | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Harriet Bethell | 11 | 2 | 18% | 3 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.