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OPEN MARKET FORM →| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,618 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,263 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,015 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 7,154 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,209 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,096 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,280 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,957 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,052 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 912 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 715 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 40% | 27% | 669 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 507 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 587 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 44% | 32% | 23% | 527 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 26% | 18% | 589 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,604 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 2,504 |
| 4–6pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,754 |
| 6–8pp | 49% | 39% | 34% | 22% | 2,119 |
| 8–10pp | 46% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,830 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 17% | 1,310 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,156 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,096 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 3,569 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 3,053 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,402 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,009 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,545 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,254 |
| 12–15pp | 36% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 866 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 716 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,393 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,794 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,144 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,357 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 23% | 20% | 10% | 1,327 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 945 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 731 |
| 15pp+ | 34% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 556 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Celestias Comet
1st h✓✓Course + distance winner5thBest on going
Celestias Comet: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 4 Jul 2026 · NottinghamBacked by 4.0pp
Class 5 · Good To Firm
Opening price 3.25SP 2.88
|
Jockey
Jonny Peate
Trainer
James Fanshawe⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 10-0 | 70 | H | 4 |
Latest
65517
|
64d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-26.5% vs avg
|
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| 4 |
Pleasant Man
Gelding1st p7thBest on going
Pleasant Man: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 20 Jun 2026 · DoncasterBacked by 9.8pp
Class 5 · Good To Firm
Opening price 7.50SP 4.33
|
Jockey
Taryn Langley(5)
Trainer
Joey Ramsden🔵 SP VALUE
|
7 | 9-13 | 69 | P | 8 |
Latest
31385
|
6d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+170.4% vs avg
|
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| 12 |
Crimson Rambler
Gelding1st b2ndBest on going
Crimson Rambler: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 9 Mar 2026 · Wolverhampton (AW)Backed by 15.4pp
Class 6 · Standard
Opening price 2.25SP 1.67
|
Jockey
Liam Wright(3)
Trainer
Matt Crawley⚪ NO EDGE
|
9 | 9-3 | 63 | B | 3 |
Latest
93255
|
24d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+599.6% vs avg
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| 7 |
Garden Oasis
Gelding1st b✓Distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
David Allan
Trainer
Tim Easterby🟢 BACK EARLY
|
2 | 9-10 | 66 | B | 11 |
Latest
23375
|
14d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+315.7% vs avg
|
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| 6 |
Didaar
Gelding1st p✓✓Course + distance winner |
Jockey
Jack Dace(5)
Trainer
Gihan Arnolda⚪ NO EDGE
|
12 | 9-11 | 67 | P | 5 |
Latest
67135
|
56d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+579.7% vs avg
|
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| 9 |
New Bay Star
Gelding10thBest on going |
Jockey
Ray Dawson
Trainer
Michael Appleby🔵 SP VALUE
|
11 | 9-7 | 67 | - | 3 |
Latest
32060
|
14d |
OP 15.00↑ 9.50(36.7%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+500% vs avg
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| 2 |
Crimson Road
Gelding✓Distance winner5thBest on going
Crimson Road: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 9 Aug 2026 · ChepstowBacked by 13.6pp
Class 5 · Good To Firm
Opening price 2.75SP 2.00
24 Jul 2026 · ChepstowBacked by 8.5pp
Class 6 · Good To Firm
Opening price 5.50SP 3.75
|
Jockey
Adam Wedge
Trainer
John & Rhys Flint🔵 SP VALUE
|
1 | 10-0 | 70 | - | 5 |
Latest
94111
|
38d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+333.8% vs avg
|
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| 8 |
Expressionless
Gelding1st p✓Course winner✓Going winner
Expressionless: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 13 Apr 2026 · LeicesterBacked by 2.2pp
Class 5 · Good
Opening price 3.50SP 3.25
|
Jockey
Joanna Mason
Trainer
Dylan Cunha⚪ NO EDGE
|
14 | 9-8 | 64 | P | 6 |
Latest
58358
|
27d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+868.8% vs avg
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| 14 |
Mohaab
✓✓Course + distance winner6thBest on going |
Jockey
David Probert
Trainer
William Muir & Chris Grassick🟢 BACK EARLY
|
5 | 9-0 | 60 | - | 3 |
Latest
42706
|
15d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+982.2% vs avg
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| 5 |
Public Enemy
Gelding5thBest on going |
Jockey
Alistair Rawlinson
Trainer
Edward Smyth-Osbourne⚪ NO EDGE
|
8 | 9-12 | 68 | - | 5 |
Latest
436
|
162d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+639% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Renesmee
1st p✓✓Course + distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Kyle McHugh(7)
Trainer
Michael Keady⚪ NO EDGE
|
13 | 9-13 | 69 | P | 6 |
Latest
06582
|
13d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+188.7% vs avg
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| 13 |
Roman Secret
✓Distance winner
Roman Secret: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 11 Aug 2026 · Lingfield (AW)Backed by 3.1pp
Class 6 · Standard
Opening price 19.00SP 12.00
|
Jockey
Alec Voikhansky
Trainer
Lawrence Mullaney🔵 SP VALUE
|
4 | 9-1 | 57 | - | 5 |
Latest
63815
|
23d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+381% vs avg
|
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| 10 |
Taradif
Gelding1st t |
Jockey
Sean Levey
Trainer
Jessica Macey⚪ NO EDGE
|
6 | 9-7 | 67 | T | 3 |
Latest
58736
|
31d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+102% vs avg
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| 11 |
Why Not Me
|
Jockey
Marco Ghiani
Trainer
Stuart Williams⚪ NO EDGE
|
10 | 9-4 | 60 | - | 4 |
Latest
243
|
31d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+759.6% vs avg
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Fanshawe | 430 | 68 | 180 | 16% | 1 |
| Joey Ramsden | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| Matt Crawley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 |
| Tim Easterby | 619 | 56 | 192 | 9% | 0.82 |
| Gihan Arnolda | 2 | 1 | 2 | 50% | 2.48 |
| Michael Appleby | 624 | 94 | 201 | 15% | 1.24 |
| John & Rhys Flint | 4 | 1 | 1 | 25% | 3.3 |
| Dylan Cunha | 46 | 8 | 18 | 17% | 1.11 |
| William Muir & Chris Grassick | 42 | 9 | 17 | 21% | 2.03 |
| Edward Smyth-Osbourne | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 |
| Michael Keady | 20 | 2 | 7 | 10% | 1.02 |
| Lawrence Mullaney | 35 | 3 | 9 | 9% | 0.83 |
| Jessica Macey | 33 | 2 | 9 | 6% | 0.64 |
| Stuart Williams | 245 | 16 | 69 | 7% | 0.62 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Fanshawe | 13 | 3 | 23% | 2 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Joey Ramsden | 9 | 1 | 11% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Matt Crawley | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Tim Easterby | 104 | 19 | 18% | 19 (9W) | 7 (2W) |
| Gihan Arnolda | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Michael Appleby | 23 | 4 | 17% | 3 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| John & Rhys Flint | 0 | 0 | None% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Dylan Cunha | 26 | 6 | 23% | 8 (4W) | 2 (2W) |
| William Muir & Chris Grassick | 14 | 1 | 7% | 4 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
| Edward Smyth-Osbourne | 5 | 1 | 20% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Michael Keady | 9 | 2 | 22% | 3 (2W) | 0 (0W) |
| Lawrence Mullaney | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Jessica Macey | 9 | 1 | 11% | 2 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Stuart Williams | 26 | 5 | 19% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.