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OPEN MARKET FORM →| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,618 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,263 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,015 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 7,154 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,209 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,096 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,280 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,957 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,052 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 912 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 715 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 40% | 27% | 669 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 507 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 587 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 44% | 32% | 23% | 527 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 26% | 18% | 589 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,604 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 2,504 |
| 4–6pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,754 |
| 6–8pp | 49% | 39% | 34% | 22% | 2,119 |
| 8–10pp | 46% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,830 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 17% | 1,310 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,156 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,096 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 3,569 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 3,053 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,402 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,009 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,545 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,254 |
| 12–15pp | 36% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 866 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 716 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,393 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,794 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,144 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,357 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 23% | 20% | 10% | 1,327 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 945 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 731 |
| 15pp+ | 34% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 556 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
Kaindy
Gelding
Kaindy: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 26 Aug 2026 · Kempton (AW)Backed by 11.4pp
Class 4 · Standard / Slow
Opening price 1.39SP 1.20
|
Jockey
Ray Dawson
Trainer
Roger Varian⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-11 | 85 | - | 3 |
Latest
72312
|
21d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-24.5% vs avg
|
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| NR |
Caim
1st p |
Jockey
Callum Shepherd
Trainer
Edward Bethell⚪ NO EDGE
|
7 | 9-11 | 85 | P | 3 |
Latest
12496
|
26d | — |
No current fixed odds
+119.7% vs avg
|
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| NR |
The Sweet Escape
Gelding1st t✓✓Course + distance winner✓Going winner
The Sweet Escape: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 14 Jul 2026 · BeverleyBacked by 10.3pp
Class 5 · Good To Firm
Opening price 2.38SP 1.91
3 Jul 2026 · BeverleyBacked by 8.9pp
Class 6 · Good To Firm
Opening price 7.50SP 4.50
8 Apr 2026 · NottinghamBacked by 6.6pp
Class 6 · Good
Opening price 13.00SP 7.00
|
Jockey
Laura Pearson
Trainer
David Loughnane⚪ NO EDGE
|
4 | 9-5 | 76 | T | 4 |
Latest
11210
|
26d | — |
No current fixed odds
+119.7% vs avg
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| 1 |
Empire of Light
Gelding✓Distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Oliver Stammers
Trainer
Grant Tuer⚪ NO EDGE
|
1 | 10-0 | 85 | - | 5 |
Latest
11100
|
25d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+13.4% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Itsatenfromlen
Wind SurgeryGelding1st t |
Jockey
Silvestre De Sousa
Trainer
Ivan Furtado🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
2 | 9-12 | 83 | T | 4 |
Latest
07190
|
265d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
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| 8 |
Eagle Bay
Gelding✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Eagle Bay: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 27 Jun 2026 · ChesterBacked by 1.0pp
Class 3 · Good
Opening price 2.25SP 2.20
5 Jun 2026 · ThirskBacked by 4.7pp
Class 5 · Good To Soft
Opening price 2.10SP 1.91
|
Jockey
Sean Dylan Bowen
Trainer
Harriet Bethell⚪ NO EDGE
|
8 | 9-8 | 82 | - | 3 |
Latest
31175
|
19d |
OP 17.00↑ 12.00(29.4%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+2052.8% vs avg
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| 10 |
Phantom Watch
Gelding1st v✓Distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
David Probert
Trainer
Hugo Palmer🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
6 | 9-1 | 75 | V | 3 |
Latest
41252
|
17d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+1321.9% vs avg
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| 2 |
Revelance
✓Distance winner
Revelance: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 6 Aug 2026 · ChepstowBacked by 8.6pp
Class 4 · Good To Firm
Opening price 5.00SP 3.50
|
Jockey
James Doyle
Trainer
Ralph Beckett🔵 SP VALUE
|
11 | 10-0 | 85 | - | 4 |
Latest
97616
|
31d |
OP 6.50↑ 4.00(38.5%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+1138.1% vs avg
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| 7 |
Rogue Defence
Gelding✓Distance winner
Rogue Defence: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 6 Jul 2026 · Lingfield (AW)Backed by 6.4pp
Class 5 · Standard
Opening price 2.63SP 2.25
28 Apr 2026 · Lingfield (AW)Backed by 1.5pp
Class 4 · Standard
Opening price 6.00SP 5.50
|
Jockey
Harry Davies
Trainer
Jack Jones🟢 BACK EARLY
|
10 | 9-10 | 84 | - | 3 |
Latest
15143
|
21d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+1096.7% vs avg
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| 6 |
We Dare To Dream
Gelding |
Jockey
Mark Winn
Trainer
David O'Meara🔵 SP VALUE
|
5 | 9-11 | 82 | - | 4 |
Latest
20060
|
358d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
|
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| 11 |
West Byfleet
Gelding2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Rob Hornby
Trainer
Jack Channon🔵 SP VALUE
|
9 | 9-0 | 74 | - | 3 |
Latest
0245
|
87d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+267.3% vs avg
|
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Varian | 272 | 54 | 139 | 20% | 0.93 |
| Edward Bethell | 54 | 12 | 27 | 22% | 1.21 |
| David Loughnane | 91 | 10 | 23 | 11% | 1.11 |
| Grant Tuer | 18 | 2 | 4 | 11% | 0.98 |
| Ivan Furtado | 107 | 7 | 25 | 7% | 0.63 |
| Harriet Bethell | 16 | 2 | 4 | 12% | 0.89 |
| Hugo Palmer | 129 | 14 | 50 | 11% | 0.68 |
| Ralph Beckett | 374 | 67 | 163 | 18% | 0.99 |
| Jack Jones | 30 | 2 | 6 | 7% | 0.67 |
| David O'Meara | 169 | 17 | 62 | 10% | 0.63 |
| Jack Channon | 31 | 7 | 14 | 23% | 1.3 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Varian | 25 | 3 | 12% | 3 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Edward Bethell | 37 | 4 | 11% | 10 (2W) | 1 (0W) |
| David Loughnane | 11 | 0 | 0% | 4 (0W) | 2 (0W) |
| Grant Tuer | 13 | 1 | 8% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Ivan Furtado | 24 | 1 | 4% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Harriet Bethell | 11 | 2 | 18% | 3 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Hugo Palmer | 38 | 3 | 8% | 3 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Ralph Beckett | 46 | 10 | 22% | 6 (0W) | 2 (0W) |
| Jack Jones | 12 | 4 | 33% | 3 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| David O'Meara | 53 | 4 | 8% | 5 (1W) | 2 (1W) |
| Jack Channon | 18 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.