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OPEN MARKET FORM →| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,672 |
| 2–4pp | 40% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,305 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,051 |
| 6–8pp | 41% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 7,192 |
| 8–10pp | 40% | 31% | 26% | 17% | 5,231 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,111 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,292 |
| 15pp+ | 39% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,968 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,030 |
| 2–4pp | 55% | 51% | 42% | 34% | 914 |
| 4–6pp | 56% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 723 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 39% | 27% | 672 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 511 |
| 10–12pp | 47% | 44% | 33% | 22% | 592 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 43% | 32% | 22% | 529 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 27% | 18% | 591 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,621 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,511 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,755 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,126 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 21% | 1,832 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,309 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 18% | 1,158 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,098 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 45% | 36% | 28% | 18% | 3,589 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 36% | 28% | 16% | 3,058 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,407 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,026 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 28% | 22% | 14% | 1,553 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,258 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 870 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 720 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 11,432 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,822 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,166 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,368 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,335 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 11% | 952 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 10% | 735 |
| 15pp+ | 33% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 559 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |
Thi Qar
|
Jockey
William Buick
Trainer
John & Thady Gosden🔵 SP VALUE
|
4 | 9-2 | 84 | - | 2 |
Latest
22
|
28d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-61% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Empress Jingu
5thBest on going |
Jockey
Rob Hornby
Trainer
Andrew Balding🟢 BACK EARLY
|
6 | 9-2 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
53
|
20d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+25.9% vs avg
|
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| 1 |
Avebury Ring
|
Jockey
James Doyle
Trainer
Ralph Beckett🔵 SP VALUE
|
5 | 9-2 | - | - | 2 | - |
OP 8.00↑ 5.50(31.2%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
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| 5 |
Princess Lottie
5thBest on going |
Jockey
Kevin Stott
Trainer
Philip McBride⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-2 | 73 | - | 2 |
Latest
542
|
27d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-58.8% vs avg
|
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| 4 |
Lavender Bay
1st h |
Jockey
Daniel Muscutt
Trainer
James Fanshawe⚪ NO EDGE
|
2 | 9-2 | - | H | 2 | - | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
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| 2 |
Bejewel
|
Jockey
Sean Levey
Trainer
Tom Ward🟢 BACK EARLY
|
1 | 9-2 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
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| 6 |
Sweet Katarina
8thBest on going |
Jockey
David Probert
Trainer
William Muir & Chris Grassick🟢 BACK EARLY
|
7 | 9-2 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
98
|
27d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+42.6% vs avg
|
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John & Thady Gosden | 73 | 16 | 35 | 22% | 0.85 |
| Andrew Balding | 228 | 27 | 89 | 12% | 0.86 |
| Ralph Beckett | 374 | 67 | 163 | 18% | 0.99 |
| Philip McBride | 61 | 5 | 16 | 8% | 0.76 |
| James Fanshawe | 430 | 68 | 180 | 16% | 1 |
| Tom Ward | 37 | 8 | 17 | 22% | 1.46 |
| William Muir & Chris Grassick | 42 | 9 | 17 | 21% | 2.03 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John & Thady Gosden | 26 | 5 | 19% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Andrew Balding | 66 | 9 | 14% | 7 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Ralph Beckett | 46 | 10 | 22% | 6 (0W) | 2 (0W) |
| Philip McBride | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| James Fanshawe | 13 | 3 | 23% | 2 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Tom Ward | 12 | 1 | 8% | 5 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| William Muir & Chris Grassick | 14 | 1 | 7% | 4 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.