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OPEN MARKET FORM →| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,672 |
| 2–4pp | 40% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,305 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,051 |
| 6–8pp | 41% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 7,192 |
| 8–10pp | 40% | 31% | 26% | 17% | 5,231 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,111 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,292 |
| 15pp+ | 39% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,968 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,030 |
| 2–4pp | 55% | 51% | 42% | 34% | 914 |
| 4–6pp | 56% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 723 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 39% | 27% | 672 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 511 |
| 10–12pp | 47% | 44% | 33% | 22% | 592 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 43% | 32% | 22% | 529 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 27% | 18% | 591 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,621 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,511 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,755 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,126 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 21% | 1,832 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,309 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 18% | 1,158 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,098 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 45% | 36% | 28% | 18% | 3,589 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 36% | 28% | 16% | 3,058 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,407 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,026 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 28% | 22% | 14% | 1,553 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,258 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 870 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 720 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 11,432 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,822 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,166 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,368 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,335 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 11% | 952 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 10% | 735 |
| 15pp+ | 33% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 559 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
Urban Warrior
Gelding1st p4thBest on going
Urban Warrior: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 5 Aug 2026 · YarmouthBacked by 8.6pp
Class 6 · Good To Firm
Opening price 4.50SP 3.25
|
Jockey
Marco Ghiani
Trainer
Stuart Williams⚪ NO EDGE
|
8 | 9-12 | 57 | P | 4 |
Latest
43315
|
27d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-35.1% vs avg
|
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| NR |
Noble Grace
✓Going winner |
Jockey
Rob Hornby
Trainer
Warren Greatrex🔵 SP VALUE
|
10 | 10-0 | 59 | - | 5 |
Latest
74137
|
18d | — |
No current fixed odds
-89.3% vs avg
|
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| 9 |
Sir Griflet
Gelding1st t5thBest on going |
Jockey
Callum Shepherd
Trainer
Dylan Cunha⚪ NO EDGE
|
5 | 9-0 | 54 | T | 3 |
Latest
04336
|
9d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-89.4% vs avg
|
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| 8 |
Corsican Caper
Gelding✓Going winner |
Jockey
Sean Dylan Bowen
Trainer
Kevin & Lauren Frost🟢 BACK EARLY
|
4 | 9-2 | 47 | - | 6 |
Latest
69435
|
20d |
OP 6.00↑ 4.00(33.3%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-83.1% vs avg
|
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| NR |
Pacific Storm
Gelding1st v5thBest on going |
Jockey
Jack Dace(5)
Trainer
David Menuisier⚪ NO EDGE
|
11 | 9-5 | 59 | V | 3 |
Latest
575
|
35d | — |
No current fixed odds
-70.9% vs avg
|
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| 4 |
Regally Blonde
1st b✓Course winner5thBest on going |
Jockey
Jonny Peate
Trainer
Ben Case⚪ NO EDGE
|
7 | 9-6 | 51 | B | 7 |
Latest
34514
|
30d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-24.1% vs avg
|
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| 6 |
Al's River
Gelding1st p6thBest on going |
Jockey
Daniel Muscutt
Trainer
James Horton🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
9 | 9-2 | 56 | P | 3 |
Latest
64835
|
13d |
OP 13.00↑ 9.50(26.9%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+51.8% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Damzon
Damzon: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 8 Jan 2026 · Chelmsford (AW)Backed by 4.9pp
Class 6 · Standard
Opening price 5.50SP 4.33
|
Jockey
Myla Coppins(5)
Trainer
Tony Carroll🟢 BACK EARLY
|
6 | 9-7 | 52 | - | 7 |
Latest
51435
|
217d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+166.3% vs avg
|
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| 12 |
N'Ion
Gelding |
Jockey
Kieran O'Neill
Trainer
Ian Williams🟢 BACK EARLY
|
12 | 8-5 | 38 | - | 3 |
Latest
60860
|
19d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-27.2% vs avg
|
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| 11 |
Lady Lauren
8thBest on going |
Jockey
Gina Mangan
Trainer
Ed de Giles⚪ NO EDGE
|
1 | 8-5 | 42 | - | 3 |
Latest
50658
|
19d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+127.7% vs avg
|
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| 7 |
Assured
1st p |
Jockey
Taryn Langley(5)
Trainer
Tom Gretton⚪ NO EDGE
|
2 | 9-2 | 47 | P | 5 |
Latest
76055
|
51d |
OP 81.00↑ 19.00(76.5%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+48% vs avg
|
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| 10 |
Stopherandgo
4thBest on going |
Jockey
Kaiya Fraser
Trainer
David Flood⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-0 | 34 | - | 9 |
Latest
07469
|
9d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-21.7% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Williams | 245 | 16 | 69 | 7% | 0.62 |
| Warren Greatrex | 18 | 2 | 6 | 11% | 0.77 |
| Dylan Cunha | 46 | 8 | 18 | 17% | 1.11 |
| Kevin & Lauren Frost | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14% | 1.09 |
| David Menuisier | 74 | 10 | 22 | 14% | 1.04 |
| Ben Case | 14 | 2 | 7 | 14% | 1.42 |
| James Horton | 22 | 2 | 6 | 9% | 0.72 |
| Tony Carroll | 314 | 17 | 70 | 5% | 0.65 |
| Ian Williams | 268 | 26 | 83 | 10% | 0.88 |
| Ed de Giles | 99 | 12 | 30 | 12% | 1.04 |
| Tom Gretton | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| David Flood | 9 | 1 | 2 | 11% | 1.47 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Williams | 26 | 5 | 19% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Warren Greatrex | 12 | 1 | 8% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Dylan Cunha | 26 | 6 | 23% | 8 (4W) | 2 (2W) |
| Kevin & Lauren Frost | 10 | 2 | 20% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| David Menuisier | 7 | 2 | 29% | 2 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Ben Case | 3 | 1 | 33% | 1 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| James Horton | 8 | 1 | 13% | 2 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Tony Carroll | 36 | 5 | 14% | 4 (1W) | 2 (1W) |
| Ian Williams | 25 | 3 | 12% | 6 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
| Ed de Giles | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Tom Gretton | 0 | 0 | None% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| David Flood | 10 | 1 | 10% | 1 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.