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OPEN MARKET FORM →| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,672 |
| 2–4pp | 40% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,305 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,051 |
| 6–8pp | 41% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 7,192 |
| 8–10pp | 40% | 31% | 26% | 17% | 5,231 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,111 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,292 |
| 15pp+ | 39% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,968 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,030 |
| 2–4pp | 55% | 51% | 42% | 34% | 914 |
| 4–6pp | 56% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 723 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 39% | 27% | 672 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 511 |
| 10–12pp | 47% | 44% | 33% | 22% | 592 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 43% | 32% | 22% | 529 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 27% | 18% | 591 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,621 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,511 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,755 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,126 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 21% | 1,832 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,309 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 18% | 1,158 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,098 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 45% | 36% | 28% | 18% | 3,589 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 36% | 28% | 16% | 3,058 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,407 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,026 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 28% | 22% | 14% | 1,553 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,258 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 870 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 720 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 11,432 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,822 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,166 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,368 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,335 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 11% | 952 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 10% | 735 |
| 15pp+ | 33% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 559 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Pride of Toledo
✓Distance winner5thBest on going |
Jockey
Callum Rodriguez
Trainer
Clive Cox🔵 SP VALUE
|
8 | 9-9 | 85 | - | 2 |
Latest
5145
|
20d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-57.9% vs avg
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| 3 |
Washington Royale
✓Distance winner4thBest on going
Washington Royale: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 31 Aug 2026 · ChepstowBacked by 5.3pp
Class 4 · Good To Soft
Opening price 3.40SP 2.88
|
Jockey
Kevin Stott
Trainer
Michael Appleby🔵 SP VALUE
|
10 | 9-3 | 79 | - | 2 |
Latest
45518
|
20d |
OP 9.00↑ 6.00(33.3%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-63.8% vs avg
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| 5 |
Tumishi
✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Tumishi: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 27 Aug 2026 · Ffos LasBacked by 17.8pp
Class 4 · Good
Opening price 2.50SP 1.73
|
Jockey
Daniel Muscutt
Trainer
James Fanshawe⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-3 | 79 | - | 2 |
Latest
4317
|
20d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-24% vs avg
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| 2 |
Pure Mint
✓Distance winner6thBest on going
Pure Mint: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 27 Jul 2026 · RiponBacked by 3.2pp
Class 4 · Good To Firm
Opening price 2.25SP 2.10
|
Jockey
Harry Davies
Trainer
Simon & Ed Crisford⚪ NO EDGE
|
6 | 9-8 | 84 | - | 2 |
Latest
16
|
27d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+146.4% vs avg
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| 6 |
Kingdom of Kush
4thBest on going |
Jockey
Ray Dawson
Trainer
Roger Varian⚪ NO EDGE
|
1 | 9-0 | 76 | - | 2 |
Latest
24
|
15d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+108.8% vs avg
|
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| 10 |
Horndean
1st t |
Jockey
Sean Levey
Trainer
Adam Kirby⚪ NO EDGE
|
9 | 8-10 | 72 | T | 2 |
Latest
3462
|
21d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+15.9% vs avg
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| 8 |
Farasan
|
Jockey
William Buick
Trainer
John & Thady Gosden🔵 SP VALUE
|
5 | 9-0 | 76 | - | 2 |
Latest
644
|
17d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+162.9% vs avg
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| 4 |
Undercover Affair
Gelding2ndBest on going
Undercover Affair: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 13 Jul 2026 · WindsorBacked by 6.2pp
Class 4 · Good To Firm
Opening price 3.50SP 2.88
7 Jun 2026 · GoodwoodBacked by 8.1pp
Class 3 · Soft
Opening price 2.75SP 2.25
|
Jockey
Marco Ghiani
Trainer
David Evans🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
7 | 9-3 | 79 | - | 2 |
Latest
31857
|
34d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+155% vs avg
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| 7 |
Donna Beauty
1st h✓Distance winner
Donna Beauty: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 11 Sep 2026 · ChesterBacked by 10.4pp
Class 5 · Good To Soft
Opening price 3.85SP 2.75
|
Jockey
Callum Shepherd
Trainer
Charlie Johnston⚪ NO EDGE
|
2 | 9-0 | 76 | H | 2 |
Latest
671
|
20d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+84.4% vs avg
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| 9 |
Musical Force
✓Distance winner
Musical Force: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 18 Aug 2026 · Lingfield (AW)Backed by 3.8pp
Class 4 · Standard
Opening price 11.50SP 8.00
|
Jockey
Kaiya Fraser
Trainer
Harry Eustace🟢 BACK EARLY
|
4 | 8-11 | 73 | - | 2 |
Latest
931
|
44d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+144.3% vs avg
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clive Cox | 315 | 47 | 119 | 15% | 1.02 |
| Michael Appleby | 624 | 94 | 201 | 15% | 1.24 |
| James Fanshawe | 430 | 68 | 180 | 16% | 1 |
| Simon & Ed Crisford | 83 | 13 | 46 | 16% | 0.77 |
| Roger Varian | 272 | 54 | 139 | 20% | 0.93 |
| Adam Kirby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| John & Thady Gosden | 73 | 16 | 35 | 22% | 0.85 |
| David Evans | 502 | 49 | 147 | 10% | 0.96 |
| Charlie Johnston | 51 | 2 | 13 | 4% | 0.29 |
| Harry Eustace | 44 | 7 | 19 | 16% | 1.07 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clive Cox | 24 | 5 | 21% | 2 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Michael Appleby | 23 | 4 | 17% | 3 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| James Fanshawe | 13 | 3 | 23% | 2 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Simon & Ed Crisford | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Roger Varian | 25 | 3 | 12% | 3 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Adam Kirby | 16 | 1 | 6% | 1 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| John & Thady Gosden | 26 | 5 | 19% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| David Evans | 20 | 1 | 5% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Charlie Johnston | 45 | 6 | 13% | 1 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Harry Eustace | 18 | 0 | 0% | 3 (0W) | 2 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.