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OPEN MARKET FORM →| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,618 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,263 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,015 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 7,154 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,209 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,096 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,280 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,957 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,052 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 912 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 715 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 40% | 27% | 669 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 507 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 587 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 44% | 32% | 23% | 527 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 26% | 18% | 589 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,604 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 2,504 |
| 4–6pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,754 |
| 6–8pp | 49% | 39% | 34% | 22% | 2,119 |
| 8–10pp | 46% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,830 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 17% | 1,310 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,156 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,096 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 3,569 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 3,053 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,402 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,009 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,545 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,254 |
| 12–15pp | 36% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 866 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 716 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,393 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,794 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,144 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,357 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 23% | 20% | 10% | 1,327 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 945 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 731 |
| 15pp+ | 34% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 556 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Caelum
✓Going winner
Caelum: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 1 Oct 2026 · NottinghamBacked by 17.3pp
Class 4 · Good
Opening price 2.25SP 1.62
|
Jockey
Kevin Stott
Trainer
Kevin Ryan⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-7 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
2
|
28d |
OP 2.25↑ 1.53(32%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-70.5% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Viking Barbie
2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Callum Rodriguez
Trainer
Ollie Sangster🔵 SP VALUE
|
1 | 9-2 | 69 | - | 2 |
Latest
32435
|
31d |
OP 5.00↑ 3.00(40%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-56.3% vs avg
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| NR |
Lady Branksome
2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Callum Shepherd
Trainer
Michael Bell🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
5 | 9-2 | 76 | - | 2 |
Latest
526
|
111d | — |
No current fixed odds
0% vs avg
|
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| 2 |
Crimson Blaze
2ndBest on going |
Jockey
William Buick
Trainer
Richard Hughes⚪ NO EDGE
|
4 | 9-2 | 64 | - | 2 |
Latest
68643
|
18d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-13.6% vs avg
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| 4 |
Runaway Lucy
4thBest on going |
Jockey
Dale Swift
Trainer
Brian Ellison🔵 SP VALUE
|
2 | 9-2 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
8
|
15d |
OP 101.00↑ 71.00(29.7%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+125.4% vs avg
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ryan | 316 | 33 | 123 | 10% | 0.76 |
| Ollie Sangster | 13 | 2 | 10 | 15% | 0.67 |
| Michael Bell | 616 | 73 | 222 | 12% | 0.9 |
| Richard Hughes | 51 | 4 | 17 | 8% | 0.53 |
| Brian Ellison | 210 | 15 | 67 | 7% | 0.63 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ryan | 44 | 6 | 14% | 11 (3W) | 3 (0W) |
| Ollie Sangster | 20 | 1 | 5% | 4 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Michael Bell | 20 | 2 | 10% | 3 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Richard Hughes | 30 | 5 | 17% | 7 (2W) | 1 (0W) |
| Brian Ellison | 28 | 2 | 7% | 7 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.