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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,618 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,263 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,015 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 7,154 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,209 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,096 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,280 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,957 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,052 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 912 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 715 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 40% | 27% | 669 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 507 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 587 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 44% | 32% | 23% | 527 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 26% | 18% | 589 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,604 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 2,504 |
| 4–6pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,754 |
| 6–8pp | 49% | 39% | 34% | 22% | 2,119 |
| 8–10pp | 46% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,830 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 17% | 1,310 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,156 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,096 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 3,569 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 3,053 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,402 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,009 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,545 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,254 |
| 12–15pp | 36% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 866 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 716 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,393 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,794 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,144 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,357 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 23% | 20% | 10% | 1,327 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 945 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 731 |
| 15pp+ | 34% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 556 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Kashchei
Gelding1st p✓Going winner
Kashchei: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 18 Sep 2026 · Downpatrick (IRE)Backed by 3.9pp
Class unavailable · Good
Opening price 9.60SP 7.00
|
Jockey
Alan O'Sullivan(5)
Trainer
Cian Collins🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 11-12 | 119 | P | 6 |
Latest
31P21
|
13d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-86.6% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Louiescall
Gelding6thBest on going
Louiescall: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 16 Aug 2026 · Tramore (IRE)Backed by 1.0pp
Class unavailable · Good To Yielding
Opening price 7.50SP 7.00
|
Jockey
Daniel King
Trainer
David Harry Kelly🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 11-6 | 113 | - | 5 |
Latest
29281
|
10d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-66.2% vs avg
|
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| 2 |
Hopeful Hero
Gelding1st h✓Going winner |
Jockey
Donagh Meyler
Trainer
T Hogan
|
0 | 11-6 | 113 | H | 5 |
Latest
10324
|
12d |
OP 6.50↑ 4.50(30.8%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-15.6% vs avg
|
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| 4 |
St Lawrence's Well
Gelding1st h |
Jockey
Kevin Healy(7)
Trainer
Declan Queally⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 11-6 | 113 | H | 6 |
Latest
25F59
|
108d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-17.2% vs avg
|
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| 6 |
Star Cave
1st ht2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Simon Torrens
Trainer
Patrick T Foley🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 10-0 | 93 | HT | 6 |
Latest
22492
|
34d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-38.6% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Le Questionnaire
Gelding1st b6thBest on going |
Jockey
Sam Ewing
Trainer
Gordon Elliott🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 10-10 | 103 | B | 5 |
Latest
02266
|
69d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+53.2% vs avg
|
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cian Collins | 11 | 2 | 18% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| David Harry Kelly | 10 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| T Hogan | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Declan Queally | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Patrick T Foley | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Gordon Elliott | 41 | 3 | 7% | 5 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.