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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,618 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,263 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,015 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 7,154 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,209 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,096 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,280 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,957 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,052 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 912 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 715 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 40% | 27% | 669 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 507 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 587 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 44% | 32% | 23% | 527 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 26% | 18% | 589 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,604 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 2,504 |
| 4–6pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,754 |
| 6–8pp | 49% | 39% | 34% | 22% | 2,119 |
| 8–10pp | 46% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,830 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 17% | 1,310 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,156 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,096 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 3,569 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 3,053 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,402 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,009 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,545 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,254 |
| 12–15pp | 36% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 866 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 716 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,393 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,794 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,144 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,357 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 23% | 20% | 10% | 1,327 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 945 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 731 |
| 15pp+ | 34% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 556 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |
Demanding Gerry
1st t4thBest on going |
Jockey
Conor Smithers(7)
Trainer
James Andrew Fahey⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 10-7 | 83 | T | 7 |
Latest
24P45
|
12d |
OP 6.50↑ 4.00(38.5%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-47.1% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Sallap
1st t✓Course winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Phillip Enright
Trainer
S Curling⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 11-12 | 102 | T | 6 |
Latest
11552
|
12d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-52.9% vs avg
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| 10 |
Princess Felicia
✓Going winner
Princess Felicia: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 24 Aug 2026 · Ballinrobe (IRE)Backed by 1.9pp
Class unavailable · Good
Opening price 4.33SP 4.00
|
Jockey
Peter Smithers(5)
Trainer
David Harry Kelly🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 10-7 | 83 | - | 7 |
Latest
3210
|
24d |
OP 9.00↑ 5.50(38.9%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+33.3% vs avg
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| 5 |
Eaglewood
5thBest on going |
Jockey
Danny Mullins
Trainer
Leonard Paul Flynn
|
0 | 11-5 | 95 | - | 6 |
Latest
03095
|
41d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-89% vs avg
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| 12 |
Misty Cove
1st t3rdBest on going |
Jockey
Alix Balfe(7)
Trainer
Gavin Cromwell🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 10-0 | 95 | T | 3 |
Latest
534
|
20d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-59.2% vs avg
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| NR |
Tasmanian Girl
1st t5thBest on going |
Jockey
Michael Kenneally
Trainer
Declan Queally⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 10-1 | 77 | T | 6 |
Latest
0P965
|
43d | — |
No current fixed odds
-79.1% vs avg
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| 7 |
Mount Shenshan
1st t✓Course winner5thBest on going |
Jockey
Sean Cleary-Farrell(7)
Trainer
Thomas Mullins🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 10-9 | 85 | T | 8 |
Latest
35606
|
42d |
OP 17.00↑ 10.00(41.2%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-35.5% vs avg
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| 4 |
Golden Wings
7thBest on going |
Jockey
Jack Kennedy
Trainer
Gordon Elliott🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 11-10 | 100 | - | 5 |
Latest
3P070
|
34d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-30.4% vs avg
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| 1 |
Courtmac Gesture
|
Jockey
Alan O'Sullivan(5)
Trainer
Colin Motherway
|
0 | 11-12 | 102 | - | 5 |
Latest
F6430
|
179d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+109% vs avg
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| 6 |
Mia In Milan
5thBest on going |
Jockey
Sam Ewing
Trainer
D E Fitzgerald
|
0 | 11-1 | 91 | - | 5 |
Latest
0058
|
20d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-47.3% vs avg
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| 2 |
Crossbar Getaway
|
Jockey
Aidan Kelly
Trainer
James Andrew Fahey⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 11-12 | 102 | - | 6 |
Latest
34927
|
116d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+531.1% vs avg
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| 9 |
Feet On The Ground
3rdBest on going |
Jockey
Mike O'Connor
Trainer
James William Hannon
|
0 | 10-7 | 83 | - | 8 |
Latest
P367P
|
13d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+655.1% vs avg
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Andrew Fahey | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| S Curling | 11 | 3 | 27% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| David Harry Kelly | 10 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Leonard Paul Flynn | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Gavin Cromwell | 48 | 1 | 2% | 3 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Declan Queally | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Thomas Mullins | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Gordon Elliott | 41 | 3 | 7% | 5 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Colin Motherway | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| D E Fitzgerald | 0 | 0 | None% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| James William Hannon | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.