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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,618 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,263 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,015 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 7,154 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,209 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,096 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,280 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,957 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,052 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 912 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 715 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 40% | 27% | 669 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 507 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 587 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 44% | 32% | 23% | 527 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 26% | 18% | 589 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,604 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 2,504 |
| 4–6pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,754 |
| 6–8pp | 49% | 39% | 34% | 22% | 2,119 |
| 8–10pp | 46% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,830 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 17% | 1,310 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,156 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,096 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 3,569 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 3,053 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,402 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,009 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,545 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,254 |
| 12–15pp | 36% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 866 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 716 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,393 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,794 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,144 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,357 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 23% | 20% | 10% | 1,327 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 945 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 731 |
| 15pp+ | 34% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 556 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
Rocky's Howya
Gelding1st tv✓✓Course + distance winner✓Going winner
Rocky's Howya: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 26 Aug 2026 · Bellewstown (IRE)Backed by 2.2pp
Class unavailable · Good
Opening price 5.00SP 4.50
14 May 2026 · Clonmel (IRE)Backed by 4.1pp
Class unavailable · Good To Yielding
Opening price 3.75SP 3.25
12 Mar 2026 · Limerick (IRE)Backed by 17.8pp
Class unavailable · Heavy
Opening price 2.50SP 1.73
4 Mar 2026 · Naas (IRE)Backed by 17.5pp
Class unavailable · Soft To Heavy
Opening price 2.63SP 1.80
10 Feb 2026 · Limerick (IRE)Backed by 25.0pp
Class unavailable · Heavy
Opening price 12.00SP 3.00
|
Jockey
Kevin Healy
Trainer
Declan Queally⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 11-2 | 116 | TV | 10 |
Latest
10101
|
36d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-60.1% vs avg
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| 8 |
Allo Al Khawaneej
Gelding1st p3rdBest on going |
Jockey
Philip Byrnes
Trainer
C Byrnes🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 10-10 | 108 | P | 6 |
Latest
87403
|
36d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-75.4% vs avg
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| 12 |
Black Heather
Gelding4thBest on going |
Jockey
Alix Balfe(7)
Trainer
Gavin Cromwell🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 10-6 | 116 | - | 7 |
Latest
635P
|
29d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-35.6% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Rich Belief
Gelding1st tb✓Distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Ben Harvey
Trainer
Karl Thornton🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 11-2 | 113 | TB | 9 |
Latest
71332
|
15d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-44.1% vs avg
|
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| NR |
Holy Joe
Gelding1st h✓✓Course + distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Jack Kennedy
Trainer
Gordon Elliott🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 11-4 | 111 | H | 6 |
Latest
U115P
|
13d | — |
No current fixed odds
-32.2% vs avg
|
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| 11 |
Tullyveery Lad
Gelding1st b✓Distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Donagh Meyler
Trainer
R P Cody🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 10-10 | 102 | B | 10 |
Latest
02U55
|
46d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-15.3% vs avg
|
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| 15 |
Shanroe
Gelding1st t10thBest on going |
Jockey
Daniel King
Trainer
Karl Thornton🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 10-6 | 106 | T | 12 |
Latest
8P80
|
12d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-44.1% vs avg
|
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| 10 |
Migdam
Gelding4thBest on going |
Jockey
Phillip Enright
Trainer
James Andrew Fahey⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 10-10 | 108 | - | 7 |
Latest
51874
|
13d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-24.3% vs avg
|
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| 14 |
Plontier
1st tp✓Distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Danny Power(7)
Trainer
Terence O'Brien🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 10-6 | 119 | TP | 10 |
Latest
4670
|
40d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-19.5% vs avg
|
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| NR |
Warm In Gorey
Gelding1st b✓Distance winner3rdBest on going |
Jockey
Conor Clarke(7)
Trainer
P J Rothwell🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 10-12 | 94 | B | 8 |
Latest
33660
|
8d | — |
No current fixed odds
+94.9% vs avg
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| 2 |
Jackson Lamb
Gelding✓Distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Alex Harvey
Trainer
John McConnell
|
0 | 11-8 | 116 | - | 7 |
Latest
75250
|
13d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+120.1% vs avg
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| 13 |
Hello Johnjoe
1st t7thBest on going |
Jockey
Josh Williamson(3)
Trainer
Andrew McNamara⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 10-6 | 84 | T | 5 |
Latest
3P67P
|
13d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+454.8% vs avg
|
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| 1 |
Eclipse Chaser
Gelding7thBest on going |
Jockey
Ricky Doyle
Trainer
C W J Farrell🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 12-0 | 119 | - | 6 |
Latest
P387P
|
27d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+445.9% vs avg
|
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| 4 |
Andys Flame
Gelding1st tb✓Distance winner3rdBest on going |
Jockey
Tiernan Power Roche
Trainer
John McConnell
|
0 | 11-2 | 103 | TB | 9 |
Latest
46030
|
64d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+148% vs avg
|
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| 9 |
Marlpark
Gelding✓Course winner |
Jockey
Brian Barry(7)
Trainer
John Patrick Ryan🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 10-10 | 83 | - | 7 |
Latest
04PFP
|
69d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+425.1% vs avg
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Queally | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| C Byrnes | 9 | 3 | 33% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Gavin Cromwell | 48 | 1 | 2% | 3 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Karl Thornton | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Gordon Elliott | 41 | 3 | 7% | 5 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| R P Cody | 6 | 1 | 17% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| James Andrew Fahey | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Terence O'Brien | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| P J Rothwell | 24 | 2 | 8% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| John McConnell | 22 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Andrew McNamara | 11 | 1 | 9% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| C W J Farrell | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| John Patrick Ryan | 18 | 2 | 11% | 3 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.