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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,618 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 15% | 13,263 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 10,015 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 7,154 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,209 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 4,096 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 3,280 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,957 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 1,052 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 912 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 30% | 715 |
| 6–8pp | 52% | 48% | 40% | 27% | 669 |
| 8–10pp | 53% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 507 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 587 |
| 12–15pp | 47% | 44% | 32% | 23% | 527 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 38% | 26% | 18% | 589 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,604 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 2,504 |
| 4–6pp | 43% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,754 |
| 6–8pp | 49% | 39% | 34% | 22% | 2,119 |
| 8–10pp | 46% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,830 |
| 10–12pp | 45% | 37% | 29% | 17% | 1,310 |
| 12–15pp | 43% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,156 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,096 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 3,569 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 3,053 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,402 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 2,009 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,545 |
| 10–12pp | 34% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,254 |
| 12–15pp | 36% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 866 |
| 15pp+ | 36% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 716 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,393 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 6,794 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,144 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,357 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 23% | 20% | 10% | 1,327 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 945 |
| 12–15pp | 28% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 731 |
| 15pp+ | 34% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 556 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Dairy Force
Gelding1st h2ndBest on going |
Jockey
James Smith(5)
Trainer
Gordon Elliott🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 11-7 | 105 | H | 7 |
Latest
53F62
|
13d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-37% vs avg
|
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| 11 |
Max Meridius
Gelding✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Max Meridius: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 21 Jul 2026 · Ballinrobe (IRE)Backed by 3.1pp
Class unavailable · Good
Opening price 5.00SP 4.33
|
Jockey
Danny Mullins
Trainer
Thomas Mullins🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 10-8 | 92 | - | 5 |
Latest
05105
|
52d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-83.1% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Vaureal
Gelding |
Jockey
Keith Donoghue
Trainer
Ian Patrick Donoghue⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 11-7 | 105 | - | 7 |
Latest
54251
|
116d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-58.7% vs avg
|
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| 2 |
Nelson Muntz
Gelding1st b2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Cian Quirke
Trainer
David Harry Kelly🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 12-1 | 113 | B | 7 |
Latest
43056
|
83d |
OP 8.00↑ 6.00(25%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-56.8% vs avg
|
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| 6 |
Kazakh d'Arthel
Gelding1st h8thBest on going |
Jockey
Mr R Sugrue(7)
Trainer
P J Rothwell🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 11-4 | 102 | H | 6 |
Latest
4F089
|
34d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+7.3% vs avg
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| 10 |
Home By The Sea
Gelding1st h4thBest on going |
Jockey
Richard Condon(5)
Trainer
P A Fahy⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 10-12 | 96 | H | 6 |
Latest
40650
|
12d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-84.1% vs avg
|
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| 8 |
Silly Mongoose
Gelding1st t7thBest on going |
Jockey
Alex Harvey
Trainer
Patrick T Foley🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 11-2 | 100 | T | 5 |
Latest
05107
|
69d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-20.8% vs avg
|
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| 9 |
Champagne Dawn
Gelding7thBest on going |
Jockey
Phillip Enright
Trainer
T J O'Mara
|
0 | 11-0 | 98 | - | 9 |
Latest
900P7
|
59d |
OP 34.00↑ 13.00(61.8%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-10.3% vs avg
|
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| 1 |
St Denis's Well
Gelding1st t✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Caragh Monaghan(7)
Trainer
Ian Patrick Donoghue⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 12-2 | 114 | T | 8 |
Latest
16P29
|
186d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+173.7% vs avg
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| 12 |
Kome Dans Un Reve
Gelding |
Jockey
Niall Moore(5)
Trainer
Philip Fenton🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 10-6 | 90 | - | 6 |
Latest
U8060
|
24d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
-76.2% vs avg
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| 7 |
Earthwatch
Gelding4thBest on going |
Jockey
Daniel King
Trainer
Denis Gerard Hogan🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 11-3 | 102 | - | 4 |
Latest
4446
|
15d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+15.3% vs avg
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| 3 |
Stepdance
9thBest on going |
Jockey
Mike O'Connor
Trainer
Henry de Bromhead🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 11-11 | 109 | - | 6 |
Latest
558P
|
35d | — |
Best fixed odds · live database
+279.6% vs avg
|
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Elliott | 41 | 3 | 7% | 5 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Thomas Mullins | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Ian Patrick Donoghue | 10 | 1 | 10% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| David Harry Kelly | 10 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| P J Rothwell | 24 | 2 | 8% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| P A Fahy | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Patrick T Foley | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| T J O'Mara | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Philip Fenton | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Denis Gerard Hogan | 21 | 3 | 14% | 3 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Henry de Bromhead | 53 | 3 | 6% | 5 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
Historical bookmaker-market evidence—not a tip or prediction.