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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Aachen
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
3
|
42d | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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| 2 |
Aix La Chapelle
✓Course winner |
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
1
|
65d | — |
No current fixed odds
+26120.5% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Albany County
Albany County: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 19 Sep 2026 · Gowran Park (IRE)Backed by 19.1pp
Class unavailable · Yielding To Soft
Opening price 1.91SP 1.40
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
4
|
41d | — |
No current fixed odds
+9256.9% vs avg
|
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| 4 |
Alfred Wallace
Alfred Wallace: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 29 Aug 2026 · SandownBacked by 4.9pp
Class 1 · Good To Soft
Opening price 4.60SP 3.75
31 May 2026 · ThirskBacked by 11.9pp
Class 3 · Good
Opening price 6.00SP 3.50
|
Jockey
Trainer
Ed Walker🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 9-5 | 97 | - | 2 |
Latest
10514
|
38d | — |
No current fixed odds
+10221.8% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Benown
|
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
2
|
48d | — |
No current fixed odds
+2838.2% vs avg
|
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| 6 |
Breath Of Paradise
|
Jockey
Trainer
Mrs J. Harrington
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
43
|
41d | — |
No current fixed odds
+5023.1% vs avg
|
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| 7 |
Choctaw Nation
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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|
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| 8 |
City of Dubai
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Trainer
P. Twomey
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
125
|
35d | — |
No current fixed odds
+16550% vs avg
|
|
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| 9 |
Dancinginthecity
|
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
2
|
41d | — |
No current fixed odds
+19643.1% vs avg
|
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| 10 |
Darkness Falls
Darkness Falls: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 12 Sep 2026 · Leopardstown (IRE)Backed by 10.0pp
Class 1 · Good
Opening price 2.50SP 2.00
29 Aug 2026 · Curragh (IRE)Backed by 15.8pp
Class unavailable · Good
Opening price 2.38SP 1.73
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
3
|
65d | — |
No current fixed odds
+54341.4% vs avg
|
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| 11 |
Dawnmore
|
Jockey
Trainer
J S Bolger⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
+16550% vs avg
|
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|
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| 12 |
Drumbeat
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
63
|
51d | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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| 13 |
Francillon
|
Jockey
Trainer
G. M. Lyons
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
24
|
51d | — |
No current fixed odds
+22690.9% vs avg
|
|
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|
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| 14 |
Green Dreamer
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
513
|
35d | — |
No current fixed odds
+14171.4% vs avg
|
|
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|
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| 15 |
Haffner
Haffner: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 19 Aug 2026 · YorkBacked by 6.1pp
Class 1 · Good
Opening price 2.78SP 2.38
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | 110 | - | 2 |
Latest
2121
|
38d | — |
No current fixed odds
+13174% vs avg
|
|
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| 16 |
Hmas Perth
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
3
|
61d | — |
No current fixed odds
+19880% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 17 |
Ile de France
✓Distance winner
Ile de France: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 15 Aug 2026 · Dundalk (IRE)Backed by 10.3pp
Class unavailable · Standard
Opening price 2.38SP 1.91
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
51
|
42d | — |
No current fixed odds
+10527.7% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 18 |
Invincible Mind
|
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
+24875% vs avg
|
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 19 |
Iveagh House
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
4
|
35d | — |
No current fixed odds
+13220% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 20 |
Jesus Green
|
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
2
|
51d | — |
No current fixed odds
+7584.6% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 21 |
Kensington Oval
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 22 |
Kingdom Of Camelot
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 23 |
Lake Lugano
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
0
|
48d | — |
No current fixed odds
+2838.2% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
|
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| 24 |
Leadlight
|
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
46
|
56d | — |
No current fixed odds
+14352.1% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 25 |
Loughrea N Roll
|
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
3
|
48d | — |
No current fixed odds
+5776.5% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 26 |
Magna Cum Laude
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
0
|
42d | — |
No current fixed odds
+28442.9% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 27 |
Maleo Matteo
|
Jockey
Trainer
D K Weld⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
0
|
35d | — |
No current fixed odds
+3742.3% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 28 |
Nola Soul
Nola Soul: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 18 Jun 2026 · AscotBacked by 10.5pp
Class 1 · Good To Firm
Opening price 13.00SP 5.50
|
Jockey
Trainer
J A Stack⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
114
|
35d | — |
No current fixed odds
+14171.4% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
|
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| 29 |
Oklahoma
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
237
|
36d | — |
No current fixed odds
+27345.1% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 30 |
One Number
✓Distance winner
One Number: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 20 Aug 2026 · Lingfield (AW)Backed by 2.9pp
Class 3 · Standard
Opening price 1.90SP 1.80
|
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | 100 | - | 2 |
Latest
20351
|
37d | — |
No current fixed odds
+15128.7% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 31 |
Overhead Drive
|
Jockey
Trainer
John Joseph Murphy
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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| 32 |
Paraguay
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 33 |
Porto Vecchio
✓Course winner |
Jockey
Trainer
D K Weld⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
1
|
70d | — |
No current fixed odds
+4657.1% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 34 |
Princeton
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 35 |
Raging Bull
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
7
|
48d | — |
No current fixed odds
+5157.9% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 36 |
Selosse
|
Jockey
Trainer
Mrs J. Harrington
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
5
|
35d | — |
No current fixed odds
+10415.8% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 37 |
Sergei Diaghilev
✓✓Course + distance winner
Sergei Diaghilev: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 23 May 2026 · Curragh (IRE)Backed by 14.3pp
Class unavailable · Good
Opening price 2.63SP 1.91
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | 100 | - | 2 |
Latest
191
|
50d | — |
No current fixed odds
+32073.9% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 38 |
Shakespeare
✓Course winner
Shakespeare: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 9 Aug 2026 · Curragh (IRE)Backed by 7.1pp
Class unavailable · Good To Firm
Opening price 1.83SP 1.62
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
321
|
48d | — |
No current fixed odds
+18955.8% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 39 |
Sonny Parvenue
Sonny Parvenue: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 14 Jun 2026 · SalisburyBacked by 11.1pp
Class 3 · Good
Opening price 3.00SP 2.25
|
Jockey
Trainer
Richard Hannon🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 9-5 | 86 | - | 2 |
Latest
18
|
64d | — |
No current fixed odds
+7992.3% vs avg
|
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| 40 |
South Dakota
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | 95 | - | 2 |
Latest
4433
|
54d | — |
No current fixed odds
+21101.2% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 41 |
State Banquet
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 42 |
Supreme Justice
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 43 |
Sword Salute
Sword Salute: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 30 May 2026 · LingfieldBacked by 16.9pp
Class 4 · Good To Firm
Opening price 3.50SP 2.20
|
Jockey
Trainer
Charlie Johnston⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | 91 | - | 2 |
Latest
3101
|
58d | — |
No current fixed odds
+3688.4% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 44 |
Thomas Chippendale
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
36
|
41d | — |
No current fixed odds
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 45 |
Tommy Quick
|
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
7
|
41d | — |
No current fixed odds
+1858.8% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 46 |
Trean
Trean: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 27 Jul 2026 · Galway (IRE)Backed by 4.0pp
Class unavailable · Yielding
Opening price 5.50SP 4.50
|
Jockey
Trainer
P. Twomey
|
0 | 9-5 | 104 | - | 2 |
Latest
3013
|
38d | — |
No current fixed odds
+10121% vs avg
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 47 |
True Sovereign
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 48 |
Venetian Power
✓Distance winner
Venetian Power: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 15 Jul 2026 · Killarney (IRE)Backed by 6.7pp
Class unavailable · Good
Opening price 7.50SP 5.00
|
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
415
|
50d | — |
No current fixed odds
+10059.3% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 49 |
Victory Speech
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
21
|
56d | — |
No current fixed odds
+2336.6% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 50 |
Wall Street
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
1
|
51d | — |
No current fixed odds
+12387.5% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 51 |
Warrawood
|
Jockey
Trainer
Daniel McLoughlin⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 52 |
Wassily Kandinsky
|
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 | - | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
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| 53 |
Zarak Pasha
✓Course winner |
Jockey
Trainer
Joseph Patrick O'Brien🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | - | - | 2 |
Latest
421
|
41d | — |
No current fixed odds
+1858.8% vs avg
|
|
Click View to load this runner’s Market Form intelligence.
|
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Brien | 65 | 6 | 9% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Ed Walker | 41 | 4 | 10% | 7 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Joseph Patrick O'Brien | 75 | 12 | 16% | 6 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
| Mrs J. Harrington | 30 | 3 | 10% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| P. Twomey | 9 | 3 | 33% | 1 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| J S Bolger | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| G. M. Lyons | 16 | 2 | 13% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| D K Weld | 16 | 2 | 13% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| J A Stack | 9 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| John Joseph Murphy | 7 | 1 | 14% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Richard Hannon | 59 | 2 | 3% | 10 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
| Charlie Johnston | 33 | 3 | 9% | 4 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| Daniel McLoughlin | 13 | 1 | 8% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
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