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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Archers Bay
✓✓Course + distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Ryan Moore
Trainer
Marco Botti🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-4 | 100 | - | 3 |
Latest
39413
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+10306.3% vs avg
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Castlemont
Gelding✓Distance winner
Castlemont: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 3 Sep 2026 · Southwell (AW)Backed by 9.4pp
Class 3 · Standard
Opening price 1.52SP 1.33
|
Jockey
Billy Loughnane
Trainer
Charlie Appleby🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-4 | 98 | - | 3 |
Latest
11
|
22d | — |
No current fixed odds
+47358.4% vs avg
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Evanesco
✓✓Course + distance winner4thBest on going
Evanesco: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 21 Aug 2026 · HamiltonBacked by 3.9pp
Class 2 · Good To Soft
Opening price 7.00SP 5.50
3 May 2026 · NewmarketBacked by 1.8pp
Class 3 · Good To Firm
Opening price 5.50SP 5.00
|
Jockey
Trainer
Charlie Johnston⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-4 | 104 | - | 3 |
Latest
75315
|
13d | — |
No current fixed odds
+13156.9% vs avg
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Fortitudine
Gelding |
Jockey
William Buick
Trainer
Charlie Appleby🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-4 | 105 | - | 3 |
Latest
11
|
23d | — |
No current fixed odds
+34647.8% vs avg
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Golden Knight
✓Course winner6thBest on going
Golden Knight: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 10 Jul 2026 · AscotBacked by 14.9pp
Class 4 · Good To Firm
Opening price 4.33SP 2.63
|
Jockey
Trainer
Ed Walker🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 9-4 | 89 | - | 3 |
Latest
16013
|
41d | — |
No current fixed odds
+7994% vs avg
|
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Guildmaster
Gelding3rdBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
John & Thady Gosden🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-4 | 98 | - | 3 |
Latest
13787
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+5921.7% vs avg
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Infraad
✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Infraad: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 29 Jul 2026 · GoodwoodBacked by 4.4pp
Class 2 · Good To Firm
Opening price 4.50SP 3.75
29 Apr 2026 · PontefractBacked by 24.5pp
Class 3 · Good
Opening price 3.00SP 1.73
|
Jockey
Tom Marquand
Trainer
William Haggas🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-4 | 106 | - | 3 |
Latest
31311
|
34d | — |
No current fixed odds
+38771.6% vs avg
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Kokbastau
✓Distance winner
Kokbastau: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 12 Aug 2026 · Kempton (AW)Backed by 7.0pp
Class 3 · Standard / Slow
Opening price 2.10SP 1.83
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Jockey
Ray Dawson
Trainer
Roger Varian🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 9-4 | 106 | - | 3 |
Latest
63111
|
27d | — |
No current fixed odds
+27746.7% vs avg
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Rose Ghaiyyath
|
Jockey
Billy Loughnane
Trainer
Richard Hughes⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 8-13 | 98 | - | 3 |
Latest
40693
|
43d | — |
No current fixed odds
+1821.2% vs avg
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Turty Tree
✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Turty Tree: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 5 Sep 2026 · AscotBacked by 0.5pp
Class 2 · Good To Firm
Opening price 21.00SP 19.00
|
Jockey
Trainer
Andrew Balding⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-4 | 93 | - | 3 |
Latest
41261
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+16629% vs avg
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Botti | 193 | 17 | 55 | 9% | 0.92 |
| Charlie Appleby | 718 | 203 | 419 | 28% | 1.11 |
| Charlie Johnston | 122 | 12 | 38 | 10% | 0.95 |
| Ed Walker | 250 | 25 | 76 | 10% | 0.92 |
| John & Thady Gosden | 312 | 42 | 129 | 13% | 0.78 |
| William Haggas | 1026 | 113 | 308 | 11% | 0.82 |
| Roger Varian | 564 | 72 | 200 | 13% | 0.86 |
| Richard Hughes | 118 | 11 | 33 | 9% | 0.89 |
| Andrew Balding | 878 | 96 | 305 | 11% | 0.87 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Botti | 13 | 2 | 15% | 6 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Charlie Appleby | 22 | 12 | 55% | 2 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Charlie Johnston | 33 | 3 | 9% | 4 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| Ed Walker | 41 | 4 | 10% | 7 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| John & Thady Gosden | 35 | 7 | 20% | 1 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| William Haggas | 70 | 16 | 23% | 14 (4W) | 2 (1W) |
| Roger Varian | 25 | 3 | 12% | 4 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Richard Hughes | 43 | 2 | 5% | 7 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
| Andrew Balding | 88 | 17 | 19% | 15 (3W) | 2 (1W) |
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