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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Audience
Gelding✓✓Course + distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
David O'Meara🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-6 | 106 | - | 7 |
Latest
92332
|
13d | — |
No current fixed odds
+5076.2% vs avg
|
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Colori Forever
✓Going winner
Colori Forever: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 8 May 2026 · AscotBacked by 12.5pp
Class 2 · Good
Opening price 4.50SP 2.88
5 Apr 2026 · Southwell (AW)Backed by 19.8pp
Class 4 · Standard
Opening price 2.63SP 1.73
|
Jockey
Marco Ghiani
Trainer
Marco Botti🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-2 | 103 | - | 3 |
Latest
21025
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+15028.7% vs avg
|
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Diego Ventura
Gelding✓Distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Trainer
Hamad Al Jehani⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-6 | 107 | - | 4 |
Latest
67141
|
26d | — |
No current fixed odds
+6789.7% vs avg
|
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Distant Storm
✓✓Course + distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
Charlie Appleby🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-2 | 114 | - | 3 |
Latest
13321
|
47d | — |
No current fixed odds
+19880% vs avg
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Hankelow
✓✓Course + distance winner |
Jockey
Clifford Lee
Trainer
K. R. Burke⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-2 | 112 | - | 3 |
Latest
13094
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+15884% vs avg
|
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Isaac Newton
✓Distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien
|
0 | 9-2 | 110 | - | 3 |
Latest
16314
|
13d | — |
No current fixed odds
+16162.8% vs avg
|
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Jonquil
✓Distance winner9thBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
Andrew Balding⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-6 | 110 | - | 4 |
Latest
19738
|
34d | — |
No current fixed odds
+9354.9% vs avg
|
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Persica
Gelding✓✓Course + distance winner2ndBest on going
Persica: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 5 Sep 2026 · HaydockBacked by 7.8pp
Class 1 · Heavy
Opening price 5.80SP 4.00
18 Jul 2026 · NewburyBacked by 7.6pp
Class 1 · Good To Firm
Opening price 2.50SP 2.10
|
Jockey
James Doyle
Trainer
Richard Hannon🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 9-6 | 114 | - | 5 |
Latest
52131
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+15242.3% vs avg
|
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Talk of New York
✓✓Course + distance winner✓Going winner
Talk of New York: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 28 May 2026 · SandownBacked by 5.6pp
Class 1 · Good
Opening price 2.38SP 2.10
|
Jockey
William Buick
Trainer
Charlie Appleby🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-2 | 116 | - | 3 |
Latest
31132
|
56d | — |
No current fixed odds
+34259.4% vs avg
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The Lost King
Gelding✓Distance winner
The Lost King: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 20 Aug 2026 · YorkBacked by 4.9pp
Class 2 · Good To Soft
Opening price 14.50SP 8.50
11 Jul 2026 · YorkBacked by 9.7pp
Class 2 · Good To Firm
Opening price 8.00SP 4.50
7 Mar 2026 · Wolverhampton (AW)Backed by 12.5pp
Class 2 · Standard
Opening price 8.00SP 4.00
|
Jockey
Oisin Murphy
Trainer
Andrew Balding⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-6 | 110 | - | 4 |
Latest
40112
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+10330.4% vs avg
|
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Wild Desert
|
Jockey
Trainer
Charlie Appleby🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-2 | 102 | - | 3 |
Latest
32606
|
47d | — |
No current fixed odds
+11317.1% vs avg
|
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Zeus Olympios
✓✓Course + distance winner3rdBest on going |
Jockey
Clifford Lee
Trainer
K. R. Burke⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-9 | 119 | - | 4 |
Latest
33412
|
40d | — |
No current fixed odds
+15370.4% vs avg
|
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David O'Meara | 220 | 12 | 45 | 5% | 0.54 |
| Marco Botti | 193 | 17 | 55 | 9% | 0.92 |
| Hamad Al Jehani | 12 | 2 | 4 | 17% | 1.01 |
| Charlie Appleby | 718 | 203 | 419 | 28% | 1.11 |
| K. R. Burke | 352 | 33 | 105 | 9% | 0.94 |
| Aidan O'Brien | 558 | 81 | 226 | 15% | 0.8 |
| Andrew Balding | 878 | 96 | 305 | 11% | 0.87 |
| Richard Hannon | 807 | 71 | 265 | 9% | 0.78 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David O'Meara | 54 | 5 | 9% | 11 (0W) | 3 (0W) |
| Marco Botti | 13 | 2 | 15% | 6 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Hamad Al Jehani | 13 | 3 | 23% | 2 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Charlie Appleby | 22 | 12 | 55% | 2 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| K. R. Burke | 62 | 11 | 18% | 9 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Aidan O'Brien | 65 | 6 | 9% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Andrew Balding | 88 | 17 | 19% | 15 (3W) | 2 (1W) |
| Richard Hannon | 59 | 2 | 3% | 10 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
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