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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brielle
✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Brielle: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 31 May 2026 · ThirskBacked by 2.3pp
Class 4 · Good
Opening price 13.00SP 10.00
|
Jockey
Trainer
David O'Meara🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-5 | 101 | - | 4 |
Latest
40161
|
69d | — |
No current fixed odds
+3792.2% vs avg
|
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Club Class
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Marco Ghiani
Trainer
James Fanshawe⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | 98 | - | 4 |
Latest
42220
|
36d | — |
No current fixed odds
+7412.2% vs avg
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Coedana
✓Distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Trainer
Edward Bethell⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | 105 | - | 4 |
Latest
32316
|
61d | — |
No current fixed odds
+12653.2% vs avg
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Frances Ethel
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Trainer
William Haggas🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-5 | 97 | - | 6 |
Latest
95244
|
22d | — |
No current fixed odds
+2838.2% vs avg
|
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Francophone
✓Course winner10thBest on going |
Jockey
Callum Shepherd
Trainer
Charlie Johnston⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | 100 | - | 5 |
Latest
40042
|
55d | — |
No current fixed odds
+4679.9% vs avg
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Inis Mor
✓Going winner |
Jockey
Oisin Murphy
Trainer
David Menuisier⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 8-12 | 110 | - | 3 |
Latest
01328
|
36d | — |
No current fixed odds
+6935.2% vs avg
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Lady Dora Mae
2ndBest on going
Lady Dora Mae: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 23 May 2026 · WindsorBacked by 1.5pp
Class 4 · Good To Firm
Opening price 6.00SP 5.50
2 Mar 2026 · Kempton (AW)Backed by 13.3pp
Class 5 · Standard To Slow
Opening price 3.75SP 2.50
23 Jan 2026 · Southwell (AW)Backed by 3.2pp
Class 3 · Standard
Opening price 1.83SP 1.73
|
Jockey
Billy Loughnane
Trainer
George Boughey⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 8-12 | 96 | - | 3 |
Latest
26229
|
35d | — |
No current fixed odds
+15082.4% vs avg
|
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Marazion
✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Marazion: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 11 May 2026 · Roscommon (IRE)Backed by 10.0pp
Class unavailable · Good
Opening price 6.00SP 3.75
|
Jockey
Trainer
Mrs J. Harrington
|
0 | 9-5 | 89 | - | 4 |
Latest
26651
|
22d | — |
No current fixed odds
+11317.1% vs avg
|
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Miss Wong
6thBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
David Simcock⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | 83 | - | 4 |
Latest
87656
|
9d | — |
No current fixed odds
+1436.9% vs avg
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|
On Message
✓Going winner |
Jockey
Hector Crouch
Trainer
Ralph Beckett🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 8-12 | 104 | - | 3 |
Latest
37414
|
18d | — |
No current fixed odds
+8780% vs avg
|
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Pierian
✓Distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Trainer
William Haggas🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 8-12 | 93 | - | 3 |
Latest
11401
|
23d | — |
No current fixed odds
+21589.1% vs avg
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Pinatique
|
Jockey
Trainer
Sir Mark Prescott Bt⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-5 | 86 | - | 4 |
Latest
96043
|
19d | — |
No current fixed odds
+5608.6% vs avg
|
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Prizeland
✓Distance winner
Prizeland: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 20 Aug 2026 · YorkBacked by 2.4pp
Class 1 · Good To Soft
Opening price 15.00SP 11.00
14 Apr 2026 · Lingfield (AW)Backed by 8.1pp
Class 3 · Standard
Opening price 1.80SP 1.57
|
Jockey
Trainer
Andrew Balding⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 8-12 | 108 | - | 3 |
Latest
25214
|
15d | — |
No current fixed odds
+14891% vs avg
|
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Ryka
✓✓Course + distance winner6thBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
David O'Meara🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-5 | 95 | - | 4 |
Latest
12168
|
36d | — |
No current fixed odds
+3742.3% vs avg
|
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Summerson
✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Summerson: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 28 Jul 2026 · Ffos LasBacked by 2.8pp
Class 3 · Good
Opening price 2.40SP 2.25
|
Jockey
Ray Dawson
Trainer
Roger Varian🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 8-12 | 96 | - | 3 |
Latest
2214
|
36d | — |
No current fixed odds
+19584.7% vs avg
|
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Sunshine Star
6thBest on going
Sunshine Star: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 4 Jun 2026 · Lingfield (AW)Backed by 13.5pp
Class 3 · Standard
Opening price 1.62SP 1.33
|
Jockey
Trainer
John & Thady Gosden🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 8-12 | 95 | - | 3 |
Latest
26124
|
55d | — |
No current fixed odds
+20975.9% vs avg
|
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Venetia
2ndBest on going
Venetia: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 7 Jun 2026 · GoodwoodBacked by 3.2pp
Class 1 · Soft
Opening price 17.00SP 11.00
|
Jockey
Trainer
Ralph Beckett🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 8-12 | 95 | - | 3 |
Latest
12187
|
40d | — |
No current fixed odds
+5192.7% vs avg
|
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Without Prejudice
✓Going winner
Without Prejudice: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 7 Sep 2026 · WindsorBacked by 8.6pp
Class 3 · Good
Opening price 1.40SP 1.25
|
Jockey
Trainer
John & Thady Gosden🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 8-12 | 92 | - | 3 |
Latest
11
|
18d | — |
No current fixed odds
+37957.1% vs avg
|
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David O'Meara | 220 | 12 | 45 | 5% | 0.54 |
| James Fanshawe | 568 | 50 | 153 | 9% | 0.79 |
| Edward Bethell | 26 | 1 | 7 | 4% | 0.31 |
| William Haggas | 1026 | 113 | 308 | 11% | 0.82 |
| Charlie Johnston | 122 | 12 | 38 | 10% | 0.95 |
| David Menuisier | 63 | 6 | 18 | 10% | 0.84 |
| George Boughey | 173 | 14 | 62 | 8% | 0.61 |
| Mrs J. Harrington | 37 | 2 | 8 | 5% | 0.53 |
| David Simcock | 300 | 24 | 69 | 8% | 0.82 |
| Ralph Beckett | 549 | 72 | 191 | 13% | 0.94 |
| Sir Mark Prescott Bt | 165 | 23 | 58 | 14% | 1.09 |
| Andrew Balding | 878 | 96 | 305 | 11% | 0.87 |
| Roger Varian | 564 | 72 | 200 | 13% | 0.86 |
| John & Thady Gosden | 312 | 42 | 129 | 13% | 0.78 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David O'Meara | 54 | 5 | 9% | 11 (0W) | 3 (0W) |
| James Fanshawe | 23 | 5 | 22% | 5 (2W) | 1 (1W) |
| Edward Bethell | 30 | 5 | 17% | 8 (2W) | 0 (0W) |
| William Haggas | 70 | 16 | 23% | 14 (4W) | 2 (1W) |
| Charlie Johnston | 33 | 3 | 9% | 4 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| David Menuisier | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| George Boughey | 38 | 7 | 18% | 4 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Mrs J. Harrington | 30 | 3 | 10% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| David Simcock | 14 | 2 | 14% | 2 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Ralph Beckett | 47 | 6 | 13% | 7 (2W) | 2 (1W) |
| Sir Mark Prescott Bt | 14 | 2 | 14% | 3 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Andrew Balding | 88 | 17 | 19% | 15 (3W) | 2 (1W) |
| Roger Varian | 25 | 3 | 12% | 4 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| John & Thady Gosden | 35 | 7 | 20% | 1 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
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