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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Alobayyah
✓Distance winner3rdBest on going |
Jockey
Tom Marquand
Trainer
William Haggas🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-4 | 96 | - | 4 |
Latest
85317
|
48d | — |
No current fixed odds
+15468.8% vs avg
|
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Applesandpears
✓Distance winner8thBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
Edward Bethell⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-0 | 85 | - | 3 |
Latest
83661
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+9324.5% vs avg
|
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Arisaig
✓Distance winner2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Jamie Spencer
Trainer
Charlie Johnston⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-4 | 99 | - | 5 |
Latest
24837
|
62d | — |
No current fixed odds
+6910.5% vs avg
|
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|
Awaken
11thBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
George Boughey⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-0 | 99 | - | 3 |
Latest
00646
|
6d | — |
No current fixed odds
+4307.4% vs avg
|
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Blingy's Sister
6thBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
Hugo Palmer🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-0 | 91 | - | 3 |
Latest
43260
|
22d | — |
No current fixed odds
+3582.9% vs avg
|
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Crystal Flyer
2ndBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
Ben Haslam⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-4 | 92 | - | 5 |
Latest
97025
|
61d | — |
No current fixed odds
+1799.2% vs avg
|
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Darnation
✓Distance winner11thBest on going |
Jockey
Clifford Lee
Trainer
K. R. Burke⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-4 | 103 | - | 5 |
Latest
5600
|
12d | — |
No current fixed odds
+1391% vs avg
|
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Estissa
Estissa: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 23 Mar 2026 · Wolverhampton (AW)Backed by 9.7pp
Class 4 · Standard
Opening price 2.88SP 2.25
|
Jockey
Oisin Murphy
Trainer
James Fanshawe⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-0 | 98 | - | 3 |
Latest
21334
|
22d | — |
No current fixed odds
+15208% vs avg
|
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Gilding The Lily
✓Distance winner
Gilding The Lily: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 4 Sep 2026 · Kempton (AW)Backed by 1.2pp
Class 3 · Standard / Slow
Opening price 1.60SP 1.57
|
Jockey
William Buick
Trainer
John & Thady Gosden🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-0 | 87 | - | 3 |
Latest
211
|
21d | — |
No current fixed odds
+39753.7% vs avg
|
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Glyfada
✓Distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Ryan Moore
Trainer
Donnacha Aidan O'Brien⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-0 | 93 | - | 3 |
Latest
2115
|
98d | — |
No current fixed odds
+27942.1% vs avg
|
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Lizzana
✓Distance winner
Lizzana: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 31 Mar 2026 · Wolverhampton (AW)Backed by 10.7pp
Class 4 · Standard
Opening price 1.83SP 1.53
|
Jockey
Marco Ghiani
Trainer
Marco Botti🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 9-0 | 96 | - | 3 |
Latest
21123
|
96d | — |
No current fixed odds
+66500% vs avg
|
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Oolong Poobong
5thBest on going
Oolong Poobong: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 5 Sep 2026 · ThirskBacked by 10.6pp
Class 3 · Good To Soft
Opening price 3.40SP 2.50
|
Jockey
Trainer
Edward Bethell⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-4 | 92 | - | 4 |
Latest
45031
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+13109.9% vs avg
|
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Queen's Reign
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Kieran Shoemark
Trainer
Ed Walker🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 9-4 | 96 | - | 5 |
Latest
03263
|
24d | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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Quiescent
✓Course winner |
Jockey
Trainer
Hamad Al Jehani⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-0 | 104 | - | 3 |
Latest
11119
|
171d | — |
No current fixed odds
|
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Quisana
✓Distance winner4thBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
Eve Johnson Houghton🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-0 | 76 | - | 3 |
Latest
52132
|
17d | — |
No current fixed odds
+9101.3% vs avg
|
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Radiance
6thBest on going |
Jockey
Trainer
George Boughey⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-0 | 84 | - | 3 |
Latest
37936
|
6d | — |
No current fixed odds
+3267.4% vs avg
|
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Secret of Life
✓Distance winner
Secret of Life: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 4 Jul 2026 · SandownBacked by 8.6pp
Class 1 · Good To Firm
Opening price 5.00SP 3.50
21 May 2026 · HaydockBacked by 13.5pp
Class 4 · Soft
Opening price 3.50SP 2.38
|
Jockey
Rossa Ryan
Trainer
Ralph Beckett🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 9-3 | 104 | - | 3 |
Latest
1114
|
27d | — |
No current fixed odds
+28120.3% vs avg
|
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Song N Dance
✓Distance winner2ndBest on going
Song N Dance: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 7 Sep 2026 · Wolverhampton (AW)Backed by 10.0pp
Class 4 · Standard
Opening price 10.00SP 5.00
|
Jockey
Trainer
S. P. C. Woods
|
0 | 9-4 | 86 | - | 4 |
Latest
22501
|
18d | — |
No current fixed odds
+13970.4% vs avg
|
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Tryst
|
Jockey
Billy Loughnane
Trainer
George Boughey⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 9-0 | 92 | - | 3 |
Latest
61105
|
20d | — |
No current fixed odds
+13240% vs avg
|
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Haggas | 1026 | 113 | 308 | 11% | 0.82 |
| Edward Bethell | 26 | 1 | 7 | 4% | 0.31 |
| Charlie Johnston | 122 | 12 | 38 | 10% | 0.95 |
| George Boughey | 173 | 14 | 62 | 8% | 0.61 |
| Hugo Palmer | 260 | 24 | 84 | 9% | 0.72 |
| Ben Haslam | 3 | 2 | 2 | 67% | 2.3 |
| K. R. Burke | 352 | 33 | 105 | 9% | 0.94 |
| James Fanshawe | 568 | 50 | 153 | 9% | 0.79 |
| John & Thady Gosden | 312 | 42 | 129 | 13% | 0.78 |
| Donnacha Aidan O'Brien | 13 | 1 | 5 | 8% | 0.92 |
| Marco Botti | 193 | 17 | 55 | 9% | 0.92 |
| Ed Walker | 250 | 25 | 76 | 10% | 0.92 |
| Hamad Al Jehani | 12 | 2 | 4 | 17% | 1.01 |
| Eve Johnson Houghton | 165 | 14 | 40 | 8% | 0.93 |
| Ralph Beckett | 549 | 72 | 191 | 13% | 0.94 |
| S. P. C. Woods | 180 | 5 | 29 | 3% | 0.42 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Haggas | 70 | 16 | 23% | 14 (4W) | 2 (1W) |
| Edward Bethell | 30 | 5 | 17% | 8 (2W) | 0 (0W) |
| Charlie Johnston | 33 | 3 | 9% | 4 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| George Boughey | 38 | 7 | 18% | 4 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Hugo Palmer | 45 | 3 | 7% | 5 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
| Ben Haslam | 8 | 1 | 13% | 1 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| K. R. Burke | 62 | 11 | 18% | 9 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| James Fanshawe | 23 | 5 | 22% | 5 (2W) | 1 (1W) |
| John & Thady Gosden | 35 | 7 | 20% | 1 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Donnacha Aidan O'Brien | 12 | 3 | 25% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Marco Botti | 13 | 2 | 15% | 6 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Ed Walker | 41 | 4 | 10% | 7 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Hamad Al Jehani | 13 | 3 | 23% | 2 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Eve Johnson Houghton | 33 | 2 | 6% | 5 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Ralph Beckett | 47 | 6 | 13% | 7 (2W) | 2 (1W) |
| S. P. C. Woods | 8 | 1 | 13% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
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