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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
Nap Hand
Gelding✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Nap Hand: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 15 Aug 2026 · PerthBacked by 4.9pp
Class 2 · Good
Opening price 8.50SP 6.00
|
Jockey
Fern O'Brien(5)
Trainer
Chris Gordon⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 11-2 | 118 | - | 6 |
Latest
38221
|
36d |
OP 4.33+42.3% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-75.1% vs avg
|
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| 4 |
Eternal Angel
Gelding1st h✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Eternal Angel: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 7 Jul 2026 · UttoxeterBacked by 25.4pp
Class 4 · Good
Opening price 2.50SP 1.53
25 May 2026 · HuntingdonBacked by 24.7pp
Class 4 · Good To Firm
Opening price 2.38SP 1.50
|
Jockey
Stan Sheppard
Trainer
Tom Lacey🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 11-4 | 120 | H | 6 |
Latest
12132
|
36d |
OP 4.90↑ 3.25(33.7%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+44.2% vs avg
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| NR |
Edelak
Gelding1st p✓Distance winner✓Going winner
Edelak: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 19 Jul 2026 · StratfordBacked by 11.1pp
Class 3 · Good To Firm
Opening price 2.25SP 1.80
28 Jun 2026 · UttoxeterBacked by 7.0pp
Class 4 · Good
Opening price 2.10SP 1.83
19 May 2026 · HuntingdonBacked by 13.5pp
Class 4 · Good To Firm
Opening price 1.62SP 1.33
|
Jockey
Harry Skelton
Trainer
Dan Skelton🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 12-0 | 132 | P | 4 |
Latest
11F11
|
13d |
OP 3.50-14.3% live |
No current fixed odds
+139.5% vs avg
|
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| 2 |
Mojito des Mottes
Gelding1st t2ndBest on going
Mojito des Mottes: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 22 Aug 2026 · Newton AbbotBacked by 3.4pp
Class 4 · Good To Firm
Opening price 5.30SP 4.50
|
Jockey
Harry Cobden
Trainer
Ben Pauling⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 11-8 | 126 | T | 4 |
Latest
442P1
|
29d |
OP 2.75-45.5% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-74.2% vs avg
|
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| 6 |
Gower Prince
Gelding1st h✓Distance winner✓Going winner |
Jockey
Benjamin Macey(5)
Trainer
Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
0 | 10-2 | 100 | H | 8 |
Latest
P2212
|
15d |
OP 8.50-17.6% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+29% vs avg
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| 3 |
Zillow
Gelding1st t✓Distance winner7thBest on going |
Jockey
Harry Kimber
Trainer
Faye Bramley🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 11-6 | 122 | T | 6 |
Latest
007P0
|
22d |
OP 34.00(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+16.4% vs avg
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You’re viewing the standard data tier. Pro members instantly unlock deep-dive market intelligence grids, historical signals, and smart movement graphs for every entry.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Gordon | 659 | 120 | 316 | 18% | 0.99 |
| Tom Lacey | 31 | 8 | 18 | 26% | 1.3 |
| Dan Skelton | 113 | 20 | 49 | 18% | 0.72 |
| Ben Pauling | 39 | 6 | 18 | 15% | 0.81 |
| Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Gordon | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Tom Lacey | 0 | 0 | None% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Dan Skelton | 25 | 8 | 32% | 3 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Ben Pauling | 4 | 1 | 25% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill | 17 | 5 | 29% | 2 (2W) | 0 (0W) |
| Faye Bramley | 9 | 1 | 11% | 2 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
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