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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
French Diablo
Gelding5thBest on going
French Diablo: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 12 Jul 2026 · StratfordBacked by 4.1pp
Class 5 · Good To Firm
Opening price 3.75SP 3.25
|
Jockey
David Bass
Trainer
Max Comley⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 10-12 | 81 | - | 4 |
Latest
P31P5
|
10d |
OP 4.30↑ 2.90(32.6%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-67.5% vs avg
|
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| 2 |
Mancero
Gelding1st v✓Going winner
Mancero: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 22 Jul 2026 · WorcesterBacked by 7.7pp
Class 5 · Good
Opening price 6.50SP 4.33
|
Jockey
Sean Bowen
Trainer
David Pipe🟢 BACK EARLY
|
0 | 12-0 | 97 | V | 4 |
Latest
1P218
|
32d |
OP 3.50(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-51.4% vs avg
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| 3 |
Jefe Triunfo
Gelding1st p4thBest on going |
Jockey
Freddie Gordon
Trainer
Chris Gordon⚪ NO EDGE
|
0 | 11-12 | 90 | P | 7 |
Latest
80754
|
14d |
OP 3.50-28.6% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-61.7% vs avg
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| NR |
Camino Rocio
Wind SurgeryGelding1st p4thBest on going |
Jockey
Harry Skelton
Trainer
Dan Skelton🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 12-0 | 92 | P | 8 |
Latest
222P4
|
12d |
OP 5.00(Live) |
No current fixed odds
-38.8% vs avg
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| 4 |
Pooroldmackley
Gelding4thBest on going |
Jockey
Miss Eleanor Williams(7)
Trainer
Mrs C. Williams
|
0 | 11-5 | 83 | - | 7 |
Latest
PF744
|
72d |
OP 8.20↑ 6.00(26.8%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-56.8% vs avg
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| 5 |
Stage Show
Wind SurgeryGelding1st tp✓Going winner |
Jockey
Isabelle Ryder(5)
Trainer
Alexandra Dunn🔵 SP VALUE
|
0 | 10-12 | 76 | TP | 6 |
Latest
41656
|
52d |
OP 11.00↑ 7.50(31.8%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-64.3% vs avg
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| 7 |
Glorious Mist
1st p4thBest on going |
Jockey
Marc Goldstein
Trainer
Michelle Bryant
|
0 | 10-2 | 64 | P | 9 |
Latest
9PPF4
|
23d |
OP 67.00(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+9.8% vs avg
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Comley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 |
| David Pipe | 230 | 43 | 114 | 19% | 0.85 |
| Chris Gordon | 659 | 120 | 316 | 18% | 0.99 |
| Dan Skelton | 113 | 20 | 49 | 18% | 0.72 |
| Alexandra Dunn | 53 | 5 | 20 | 9% | 0.74 |
| Michelle Bryant | 77 | 2 | 16 | 3% | 0.44 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Comley | 4 | 1 | 25% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| David Pipe | 10 | 1 | 10% | 2 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Chris Gordon | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Dan Skelton | 25 | 8 | 32% | 3 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Mrs C. Williams | 8 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Alexandra Dunn | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Michelle Bryant | 0 | 0 | None% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
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