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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Uncle Liam
Gelding✓✓Course + distance winner
Uncle Liam: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 2 Sep 2026 · HamiltonBacked by 11.9pp
Class 6 · Soft
Opening price 6.00SP 3.50
|
Jockey
Lauren Young(5)
Trainer
Jim Goldie🔵 SP VALUE
|
2 | 9-9 | 57 | - | 4 |
Latest
81541
|
18d |
OP 2.38-26.1% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-58.9% vs avg
|
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| 2 |
Taylormade Lad
Gelding |
Jockey
Connor Beasley
Trainer
Michael Dods⚪ NO EDGE
|
8 | 9-9 | 57 | - | 4 |
Latest
35572
|
24d |
OP 7.80↑ 4.50(42.3%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+2.1% vs avg
|
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| NR |
Ned Broy
Gelding1st p
Ned Broy: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 31 Jul 2026 · Newcastle (AW)Backed by 8.8pp
Class 6 · Standard / Slow
Opening price 7.00SP 4.33
|
Jockey
Andrew Mullen
Trainer
Iain Jardine⚪ NO EDGE
|
6 | 10-2 | 64 | P | 5 |
Latest
62351
|
51d |
OP 5.50(Live) |
No current fixed odds
-92.4% vs avg
|
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| 9 |
Flying Moonlight
Gelding |
Jockey
Greg Fairley
Trainer
Sandy Thomson⚪ NO EDGE
|
5 | 8-9 | 50 | - | 3 |
Latest
77332
|
43d |
OP 5.50-9.1% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-27.3% vs avg
|
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| 4 |
Farabove The Limit
Gelding
Farabove The Limit: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 27 Aug 2026 · CarlisleBacked by 2.8pp
Class 6 · Good
Opening price 13.00SP 9.50
|
Jockey
Sam James
Trainer
Phillip Makin🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
7 | 9-7 | 62 | - | 3 |
Latest
38491
|
24d |
OP 9.60↑ 5.50(42.7%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-62.8% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Wootton's Gal
|
Jockey
Oisin Orr
Trainer
Richard & Peter Fahey⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-6 | 61 | - | 3 |
Latest
52495
|
18d |
OP 11.00↑ 7.00(36.4%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-67.7% vs avg
|
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| 6 |
Dandy's Angel
1st p✓✓Course + distance winner |
Jockey
Jason Hart
Trainer
John Wainwright🔵 SP VALUE
|
4 | 8-13 | 47 | P | 9 |
Latest
03662
|
18d |
OP 9.00-5.6% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-56.8% vs avg
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| 7 |
Storm On Jura
|
Jockey
Rhys Elliott(5)
Trainer
Jim Goldie🔵 SP VALUE
|
9 | 8-12 | 46 | - | 4 |
Latest
48088
|
6d |
OP 41.00+17.1% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+59.1% vs avg
|
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| NR |
Duleek Street
Gelding1st htp |
Jockey
M. P. Sheehy
Trainer
John McConnell
|
1 | 8-11 | 41 | HTP | 8 |
Latest
8977
|
413d |
OP 15.00-6560% live |
No current fixed odds
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Goldie | 1696 | 175 | 554 | 10% | 0.84 |
| Michael Dods | 532 | 61 | 208 | 11% | 0.73 |
| Iain Jardine | 654 | 77 | 230 | 12% | 0.93 |
| Phillip Makin | 74 | 11 | 32 | 15% | 1.01 |
| Richard & Peter Fahey | 31 | 3 | 16 | 10% | 0.73 |
| John Wainwright | 198 | 16 | 46 | 8% | 0.97 |
| John McConnell | 21 | 3 | 10 | 14% | 0.87 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Goldie | 42 | 5 | 12% | 6 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| Michael Dods | 36 | 4 | 11% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Iain Jardine | 28 | 1 | 4% | 3 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Sandy Thomson | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Phillip Makin | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Richard & Peter Fahey | 56 | 3 | 5% | 6 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| John Wainwright | 4 | 1 | 25% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| John McConnell | 21 | 1 | 5% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
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