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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Empirestateofmind
Gelding1st b✓Distance winner
Empirestateofmind: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 18 Sep 2026 · AyrBacked by 2.2pp
Class 5 · Soft
Opening price 9.00SP 7.50
|
Jockey
Jason Hart
Trainer
John & Sean Quinn⚪ NO EDGE
|
5 | 9-13 | 64 | B | 8 |
Latest
95001
|
2d |
OP 3.75+6.7% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-84.1% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Motawaared
Gelding1st p |
Jockey
Paul Mulrennan
Trainer
Jim Goldie🔵 SP VALUE
|
9 | 9-5 | 60 | P | 4 |
Latest
54222
|
2d |
OP 3.75(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-68.9% vs avg
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| 2 |
Tee Aitch Aye
Gelding1st p✓✓Course + distance winner
Tee Aitch Aye: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 2 Sep 2026 · HamiltonBacked by 13.6pp
Class 6 · Soft
Opening price 4.10SP 2.63
|
Jockey
Andrew Mullen
Trainer
Iain Jardine⚪ NO EDGE
|
1 | 9-12 | 67 | P | 5 |
Latest
76321
|
18d |
OP 6.00↑ 4.50(25%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-47.8% vs avg
|
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| 1 |
Draupnir
Gelding |
Jockey
Joanna Mason
Trainer
Michael & David Easterby🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
2 | 10-0 | 69 | - | 4 |
Latest
37052
|
19d |
OP 7.50-6.7% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-38.4% vs avg
|
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| 8 |
Bradbury
Gelding1st t/ce
Bradbury: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 15 Jun 2026 · WetherbyBacked by 5.6pp
Class 6 · Good To Firm
Opening price 2.25SP 2.00
8 Jun 2026 · LeicesterBacked by 1.0pp
Class 6 · Good
Opening price 2.25SP 2.20
|
Jockey
Billy Loughnane
Trainer
Edward Bethell⚪ NO EDGE
|
8 | 9-1 | 61 | T/CE | 3 |
Latest
11636
|
40d |
OP 9.00-44.4% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+347.5% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Epidavros
1st b✓✓Course + distance winner |
Jockey
Connor Beasley
Trainer
Katie Scott🔵 SP VALUE
|
4 | 9-9 | 64 | B | 5 |
Latest
43548
|
24d |
OP 6.00-150% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+130.8% vs avg
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| 9 |
Port Darwin
Gelding✓✓Course + distance winner
Port Darwin: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 17 Jun 2026 · HamiltonBacked by 7.7pp
Class 6 · Good To Soft
Opening price 13.00SP 6.50
|
Jockey
Rowan Scott
Trainer
Charlie Johnston⚪ NO EDGE
|
6 | 9-1 | 61 | - | 3 |
Latest
55148
|
11d |
OP 7.00-171.4% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+79.2% vs avg
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| 7 |
Ibn Altheeb
Gelding1st b✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Sam James
Trainer
Iain Jardine⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-3 | 63 | B | 3 |
Latest
03400
|
18d |
OP 23.00-78.3% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+53.7% vs avg
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| 6 |
Sogniamo
1st tp✓✓Course + distance winner |
Jockey
Conor Whiteley(5)
Trainer
David O'Meara🔵 SP VALUE
|
7 | 9-4 | 64 | TP | 3 |
Latest
17568
|
29d |
OP 51.00+19.6% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+54.7% vs avg
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John & Sean Quinn | 24 | 3 | 8 | 12% | 0.89 |
| Jim Goldie | 1696 | 175 | 554 | 10% | 0.84 |
| Iain Jardine | 654 | 77 | 230 | 12% | 0.93 |
| Michael & David Easterby | 93 | 11 | 35 | 12% | 0.84 |
| Edward Bethell | 69 | 19 | 47 | 28% | 1.07 |
| Katie Scott | 131 | 10 | 37 | 8% | 0.63 |
| Charlie Johnston | 171 | 21 | 69 | 12% | 0.78 |
| David O'Meara | 422 | 73 | 202 | 17% | 0.9 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John & Sean Quinn | 19 | 3 | 16% | 4 (0W) | 3 (0W) |
| Jim Goldie | 42 | 5 | 12% | 6 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| Iain Jardine | 28 | 1 | 4% | 3 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Michael & David Easterby | 48 | 3 | 6% | 5 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Edward Bethell | 30 | 5 | 17% | 8 (2W) | 0 (0W) |
| Katie Scott | 10 | 2 | 20% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Charlie Johnston | 33 | 3 | 9% | 4 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| David O'Meara | 54 | 5 | 9% | 11 (0W) | 3 (0W) |
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