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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Maximising
Gelding✓Distance winner
Maximising: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 29 Aug 2026 · WindsorBacked by 4.2pp
Class 4 · Soft
Opening price 4.80SP 4.00
|
Jockey
Billy Loughnane
Trainer
Kevin Philippart de Foy⚪ NO EDGE
|
5 | 9-13 | 84 | - | 4 |
Latest
48221
|
22d |
OP 3.75-15.5% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-9.9% vs avg
|
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| 6 |
Time Loop
1st h |
Jockey
Tom Marquand
Trainer
William Haggas🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
4 | 9-12 | 83 | H | 5 |
Latest
24844
|
17d |
OP 5.50(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-25.1% vs avg
|
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| 7 |
Monoceros
Gelding✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Andrew Mullen
Trainer
Iain Jardine⚪ NO EDGE
|
7 | 9-9 | 84 | - | 3 |
Latest
35951
|
15d |
OP 5.00-20% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-73.2% vs avg
|
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| 10 |
Krissy
Krissy: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 22 Jun 2026 · MusselburghBacked by 11.1pp
Class 5 · Good
Opening price 9.00SP 4.50
29 May 2026 · CarlisleBacked by 3.0pp
Class 6 · Good
Opening price 1.57SP 1.50
21 May 2026 · MusselburghBacked by 25.4pp
Class 6 · Good
Opening price 2.50SP 1.53
|
Jockey
Rhys Elliott(5)
Trainer
Jim Goldie🔵 SP VALUE
|
10 | 9-4 | 75 | - | 5 |
Latest
14922
|
3d |
OP 12.00↑ 7.50(37.5%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+25.2% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Military Leader
Gelding1st b✓Distance winner
Military Leader: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 14 Aug 2026 · ThirskBacked by 7.8pp
Class 5 · Good
Opening price 3.50SP 2.75
|
Jockey
Sam James
Trainer
Phillip Makin🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
11 | 9-12 | 83 | B | 5 |
Latest
22212
|
15d |
OP 7.00-28.6% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+85.2% vs avg
|
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| 11 |
Matter of Britain
Gelding✓✓Course + distance winner |
Jockey
Daniel Tudhope
Trainer
David O'Meara🔵 SP VALUE
|
12 | 9-4 | 79 | - | 3 |
Latest
231
|
40d |
OP 6.00-100% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+24.1% vs avg
|
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| 12 |
Good Morning Alex
Gelding✓✓Course + distance winner |
Jockey
Connor Beasley
Trainer
David & Nicola Barron⚪ NO EDGE
|
2 | 8-13 | 70 | - | 5 |
Latest
85005
|
8d |
OP 17.50↑ 13.00(25.7%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-35.8% vs avg
|
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| 8 |
Vincenzo Peruggia
Gelding1st v |
Jockey
Rowan Scott
Trainer
Charlie Johnston⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-9 | 84 | V | 3 |
Latest
70044
|
10d |
OP 8.00-112.5% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-41% vs avg
|
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| 9 |
Lucky Camino
Gelding✓✓Course + distance winner
Lucky Camino: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 11 Jul 2026 · HamiltonBacked by 6.7pp
Class 4 · Good
Opening price 3.00SP 2.50
|
Jockey
Kevin Stott
Trainer
Hugo Palmer🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
8 | 9-8 | 83 | - | 3 |
Latest
23137
|
17d |
OP 24.00↑ 12.00(50%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+107.7% vs avg
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| 2 |
Cadarn
Gelding1st t✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Shane Gray
Trainer
Kevin Ryan⚪ NO EDGE
|
9 | 10-0 | 85 | T | 5 |
Latest
50138
|
40d |
OP 19.00-52.6% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+33.3% vs avg
|
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| 3 |
Rajapour
Gelding1st tp✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Mark Winn
Trainer
David O'Meara🔵 SP VALUE
|
1 | 9-13 | 84 | TP | 6 |
Latest
1F517
|
14d |
OP 19.00-52.6% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
+177.8% vs avg
|
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| NR |
Empire of Light
Gelding✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Oliver Stammers
Trainer
Grant Tuer⚪ NO EDGE
|
6 | 10-0 | 85 | - | 5 |
Latest
11100
|
14d | — |
No current fixed odds
+5864.2% vs avg
|
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Philippart de Foy | 8 | 3 | 6 | 38% | 1.22 |
| William Haggas | 115 | 35 | 82 | 30% | 0.91 |
| Iain Jardine | 654 | 77 | 230 | 12% | 0.93 |
| Jim Goldie | 1696 | 175 | 554 | 10% | 0.84 |
| Phillip Makin | 74 | 11 | 32 | 15% | 1.01 |
| David O'Meara | 422 | 73 | 202 | 17% | 0.9 |
| David & Nicola Barron | 36 | 5 | 11 | 14% | 0.93 |
| Charlie Johnston | 171 | 21 | 69 | 12% | 0.78 |
| Hugo Palmer | 57 | 14 | 27 | 25% | 1.12 |
| Kevin Ryan | 695 | 136 | 324 | 20% | 1.11 |
| Grant Tuer | 71 | 8 | 30 | 11% | 0.74 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Philippart de Foy | 11 | 1 | 9% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| William Haggas | 70 | 16 | 23% | 14 (4W) | 2 (1W) |
| Iain Jardine | 28 | 1 | 4% | 3 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Jim Goldie | 42 | 5 | 12% | 6 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| Phillip Makin | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| David O'Meara | 54 | 5 | 9% | 11 (0W) | 3 (0W) |
| David & Nicola Barron | 14 | 1 | 7% | 2 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Charlie Johnston | 33 | 3 | 9% | 4 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| Hugo Palmer | 45 | 3 | 7% | 5 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
| Kevin Ryan | 44 | 2 | 5% | 10 (1W) | 2 (0W) |
| Grant Tuer | 17 | 0 | 0% | 3 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
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