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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
Thunderstorm Katie
✓✓Course + distance winner |
Jockey
Lauren Young(5)
Trainer
Jim Goldie🔵 SP VALUE
|
1 | 9-3 | 68 | - | 5 |
Latest
29162
|
3d |
OP 4.33+19.2% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-58.6% vs avg
|
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| 2 |
Persian Spirit
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Billy Loughnane
Trainer
Edward Bethell⚪ NO EDGE
|
7 | 9-13 | 78 | - | 4 |
Latest
14575
|
15d |
OP 4.33(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-27.8% vs avg
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| 7 |
Annie Edson Taylor
1st tp✓✓Course + distance winner
Annie Edson Taylor: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 2 Sep 2026 · HamiltonBacked by 4.3pp
Class 5 · Soft
Opening price 10.00SP 7.00
5 Jun 2026 · ThirskBacked by 5.6pp
Class 6 · Good
Opening price 13.00SP 7.50
|
Jockey
Sam James
Trainer
Phillip Makin🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
6 | 9-2 | 67 | TP | 5 |
Latest
61691
|
18d |
OP 4.50-33.3% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-48.6% vs avg
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| 3 |
Mae Amor
1st v✓✓Course + distance winner |
Jockey
Kaiya Fraser
Trainer
Rebecca Menzies⚪ NO EDGE
|
8 | 9-9 | 74 | V | 4 |
Latest
96434
|
18d |
OP 6.50-23.1% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-72.4% vs avg
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| 4 |
Call Me Betty
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Connor Beasley
Trainer
Michael Dods⚪ NO EDGE
|
9 | 9-9 | 74 | - | 4 |
Latest
60197
|
18d |
OP 21.00↑ 15.00(28.6%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+19.4% vs avg
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| 9 |
Iris Dancer
1st b✓✓Course + distance winner
Iris Dancer: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 11 Jul 2026 · HamiltonBacked by 4.6pp
Class 5 · Good
Opening price 6.50SP 5.00
10 Jun 2026 · HamiltonBacked by 5.6pp
Class 5 · Good To Soft
Opening price 9.00SP 6.00
|
Jockey
Rowan Scott
Trainer
Tristan Davidson🟢 BACK EARLY
|
3 | 8-11 | 62 | B | 8 |
Latest
30959
|
18d |
OP 12.00+16.7% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-9.1% vs avg
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| 5 |
Lily Pearl
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Warren Fentiman(3)
Trainer
Richard & Peter Fahey⚪ NO EDGE
|
2 | 9-6 | 73 | - | 3 |
Latest
41395
|
18d |
OP 11.00-36.4% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-8.2% vs avg
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| 8 |
Pickersgill
✓Distance winner
Pickersgill: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 7 Apr 2026 · Southwell (AW)Backed by 1.9pp
Class 5 · Standard
Opening price 3.75SP 3.50
|
Jockey
M. P. Sheehy
Trainer
Iain Jardine⚪ NO EDGE
|
4 | 9-0 | 65 | - | 4 |
Latest
28398
|
8d |
OP 29.00(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
+110.9% vs avg
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| NR |
Jannas Journey
✓✓Course + distance winner6thBest on going
Jannas Journey: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 4 Jul 2026 · CarlisleBacked by 6.8pp
Class 4 · Good
Opening price 5.50SP 4.00
|
Jockey
Rhys Elliott(5)
Trainer
Jim Goldie🔵 SP VALUE
|
5 | 10-0 | 79 | - | 5 |
Latest
14936
|
1d |
OP 4.33-22971.6% live |
No current fixed odds
+7516.7% vs avg
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Goldie | 1696 | 175 | 554 | 10% | 0.84 |
| Edward Bethell | 69 | 19 | 47 | 28% | 1.07 |
| Phillip Makin | 74 | 11 | 32 | 15% | 1.01 |
| Rebecca Menzies | 89 | 10 | 33 | 11% | 1.02 |
| Michael Dods | 532 | 61 | 208 | 11% | 0.73 |
| Tristan Davidson | 91 | 19 | 39 | 21% | 1.28 |
| Richard & Peter Fahey | 31 | 3 | 16 | 10% | 0.73 |
| Iain Jardine | 654 | 77 | 230 | 12% | 0.93 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Goldie | 42 | 5 | 12% | 6 (1W) | 1 (1W) |
| Edward Bethell | 30 | 5 | 17% | 8 (2W) | 0 (0W) |
| Phillip Makin | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Rebecca Menzies | 18 | 2 | 11% | 1 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Michael Dods | 36 | 4 | 11% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Tristan Davidson | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
| Richard & Peter Fahey | 56 | 3 | 5% | 6 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Iain Jardine | 28 | 1 | 4% | 3 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
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