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| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 19,150 |
| 2–4pp | 39% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 12,949 |
| 4–6pp | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 9,752 |
| 6–8pp | 42% | 32% | 25% | 16% | 6,957 |
| 8–10pp | 41% | 32% | 26% | 17% | 5,061 |
| 10–12pp | 40% | 32% | 25% | 15% | 3,985 |
| 12–15pp | 39% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 3,176 |
| 15pp+ | 40% | 32% | 24% | 15% | 2,853 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 56% | 49% | 43% | 33% | 1,010 |
| 2–4pp | 56% | 52% | 42% | 34% | 894 |
| 4–6pp | 55% | 50% | 41% | 29% | 707 |
| 6–8pp | 53% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 648 |
| 8–10pp | 54% | 46% | 41% | 30% | 488 |
| 10–12pp | 46% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 564 |
| 12–15pp | 46% | 43% | 32% | 23% | 505 |
| 15pp+ | 43% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 565 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 48% | 40% | 33% | 22% | 3,524 |
| 2–4pp | 45% | 39% | 31% | 23% | 2,441 |
| 4–6pp | 42% | 35% | 28% | 20% | 2,655 |
| 6–8pp | 48% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 2,052 |
| 8–10pp | 45% | 37% | 30% | 20% | 1,776 |
| 10–12pp | 44% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 1,269 |
| 12–15pp | 44% | 35% | 29% | 19% | 1,117 |
| 15pp+ | 44% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 1,053 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 3,529 |
| 2–4pp | 47% | 35% | 28% | 16% | 2,969 |
| 4–6pp | 44% | 33% | 26% | 15% | 2,344 |
| 6–8pp | 38% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 1,949 |
| 8–10pp | 36% | 29% | 22% | 15% | 1,508 |
| 10–12pp | 35% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 1,224 |
| 12–15pp | 37% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 841 |
| 15pp+ | 37% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 695 |
| Already Shortened | +1pp | +2pp | +3pp | +5pp | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2pp | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11,087 |
| 2–4pp | 32% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 6,645 |
| 4–6pp | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 4,046 |
| 6–8pp | 36% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 2,308 |
| 8–10pp | 35% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 1,289 |
| 10–12pp | 37% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 928 |
| 12–15pp | 30% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 713 |
| 15pp+ | 35% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 540 |
This guide shows you the exact historical probabilities of a horse's price continuing to shorten after it has already made an initial move. Every calculation is permanently anchored to the horse's Opening Price, and each runner is strictly limited to one observation per move band to ensure completely unbiased, accurate data.
Prices, form, fair odds and connections at a glance. Click any horse name to open its complete intelligence.
| MF / No. ▲▼ | Runner | Connections | Draw | Weight | OR | Headgear | Age | Form | Last run | Market move | Best Fixed Odds ▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Space Dreamer
✓Distance winner
Space Dreamer: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 23 Aug 2026 · BrightonBacked by 3.7pp
Class 5 · Good To Firm
Opening price 4.70SP 4.00
|
Jockey
Harry Vigors(5)
Trainer
Ollie Sangster🔵 SP VALUE
|
2 | 9-11 | 77 | - | 2 |
Latest
5511
|
8d |
OP 4.00(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-49.2% vs avg
|
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| 2 |
The Resdev Roman
✓Distance winner
The Resdev Roman: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 1 Sep 2026 · RiponBacked by 3.2pp
Class 4 · Soft
Opening price 17.00SP 11.00
|
Jockey
Joanna Mason
Trainer
Michael & David Easterby🟡 BACK BY 10AM
|
6 | 9-9 | 75 | - | 2 |
Latest
771
|
19d |
OP 3.00-50% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-88.7% vs avg
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| 4 |
Pj's Corner
✓Distance winner
Pj's Corner: wins after market supportThese are previous wins where the horse shortened between its recorded opening price and SP. Probability points (pp) measure the change in its implied chance. 29 Aug 2026 · ChepstowBacked by 8.2pp
Class 5 · Good To Soft
Opening price 4.90SP 3.50
|
Jockey
Tom Marquand
Trainer
Dylan Cunha⚪ NO EDGE
|
1 | 9-7 | 73 | - | 2 |
Latest
53116
|
8d |
OP 5.00(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-78.9% vs avg
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| 6 |
Prosperity Angel
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Andrew Mullen
Trainer
Ben Haslam⚪ NO EDGE
|
5 | 9-5 | 71 | - | 2 |
Latest
313
|
24d |
OP 7.40↑ 5.50(25.7%) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-59.3% vs avg
|
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| 5 |
Concert Pitch
✓Distance winner |
Jockey
Harry Russell
Trainer
Brian Ellison🔵 SP VALUE
|
4 | 9-6 | 72 | - | 2 |
Latest
22216
|
15d |
OP 7.00-21.4% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-63.5% vs avg
|
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| 7 |
Aura of Melania
|
Jockey
Mark Winn
Trainer
Roger Fell⚪ NO EDGE
|
7 | 8-12 | 64 | - | 2 |
Latest
45322
|
12d |
OP 7.50-20% live |
Best fixed odds · live database
-43.6% vs avg
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| 3 |
Fantasy Force
Gelding1st b |
Jockey
M. P. Sheehy
Trainer
Adrian Keatley⚪ NO EDGE
|
3 | 9-9 | 75 | B | 2 |
Latest
3500
|
32d |
OP 11.00(Live) |
Best fixed odds · live database
-17% vs avg
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| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win % | A/E Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Sangster | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 |
| Michael & David Easterby | 93 | 11 | 35 | 12% | 0.84 |
| Ben Haslam | 117 | 14 | 46 | 12% | 0.91 |
| Brian Ellison | 208 | 17 | 70 | 8% | 0.63 |
| Roger Fell | 103 | 14 | 37 | 14% | 0.94 |
| Adrian Keatley | 47 | 5 | 12 | 11% | 0.63 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate | 30%+ Backed | 50%+ Backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Sangster | 23 | 2 | 9% | 2 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Michael & David Easterby | 48 | 3 | 6% | 5 (1W) | 1 (0W) |
| Dylan Cunha | 29 | 2 | 7% | 4 (1W) | 2 (1W) |
| Ben Haslam | 8 | 1 | 13% | 1 (0W) | 1 (0W) |
| Brian Ellison | 31 | 3 | 10% | 6 (0W) | 2 (0W) |
| Roger Fell | 15 | 1 | 7% | 3 (1W) | 0 (0W) |
| Adrian Keatley | 15 | 2 | 13% | 2 (0W) | 0 (0W) |
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