Learn the trigger. Set the alert. Let Market Form watch the market.
Each trainer below has a specific support level where their historical Chase or Hurdle record materially strengthened.
Check whether the evidence applies to their Hurdle or Chase runners.
Note the required market move—for example, +3 probability points.
Open the Live Terminal, select notifications and choose the matching +pp trigger.
When the support appears, check the horse, race context and available price before acting.
Discover the evidence. Set the trigger. Let Market Form tell you when the pattern happens again.
Open the Pro Terminal →Know when supportgenuinely strengthens a yard.
A shortening price does not mean the same thing for every trainer. This research identifies the yards whose historical strike rate has strengthened materially when their runners received a defined level of 10AM market support.
Evidence last rebuilt: 26 October 2026, 05:31This is how often the trainer's runners normally won in that discipline across the evidence period.
The trigger is measured in probability points—not a potentially misleading percentage price change.
A/E compares winners with market expectation. Around 1.00 means results broadly matched the starting prices.
Hurdle trainer support evidence
Each yard appears at the first support level where its strike rate passed the evidence thresholds for sample size, improvement and A/E.
Jamie Snowden
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Jamie Snowden's hurdle runners normally won 21.4% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 20 of 41 races—a 48.8% strike rate and an improvement of +27.4 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +5.9 points (+14.3% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.21.
Sam England
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Sam England's hurdle runners normally won 14.6% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 8 of 21 races—a 38.1% strike rate and an improvement of +23.5 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +13.7 points (+65.4% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.54.
Anthony Honeyball
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Anthony Honeyball's hurdle runners normally won 16.5% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 9 of 24 races—a 37.5% strike rate and an improvement of +21 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +6.9 points (+28.8% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.29.
Tom Lacey
Strong support · 5pp+What this means in plain English Tom Lacey's hurdle runners normally won 12.8% of the time. When supported by at least 5 probability points, they won 7 of 21 races—a 33.3% strike rate and an improvement of +20.5 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: +2.8 points (+13.4% ROI), with an A/E of 1.00. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
Strong support · 5pp+What this means in plain English Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies's hurdle runners normally won 15.1% of the time. When supported by at least 5 probability points, they won 9 of 26 races—a 34.6% strike rate and an improvement of +19.6 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: +1.0 points (+3.9% ROI), with an A/E of 1.00. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Fergal O'Brien
Strong support · 5pp+What this means in plain English Fergal O'Brien's hurdle runners normally won 13.4% of the time. When supported by at least 5 probability points, they won 11 of 34 races—a 32.4% strike rate and an improvement of +19 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +20.4 points (+59.9% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.15.
Dan Skelton
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Dan Skelton's hurdle runners normally won 23.2% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 48 of 115 races—a 41.7% strike rate and an improvement of +18.6 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The move strengthened the strike rate, but blind backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -8.8 points (-7.7% ROI), with an A/E of 0.96. The signal needed additional horse and price context.
Olly Murphy
Strong support · 5pp+What this means in plain English Olly Murphy's hurdle runners normally won 20.8% of the time. When supported by at least 5 probability points, they won 26 of 66 races—a 39.4% strike rate and an improvement of +18.5 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: +3.9 points (+5.9% ROI), with an A/E of 1.01. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Joe Tizzard
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Joe Tizzard's hurdle runners normally won 13.4% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 9 of 30 races—a 30% strike rate and an improvement of +16.6 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +7.9 points (+26.2% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.17.
Henry De Bromhead
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Henry De Bromhead's hurdle runners normally won 14.3% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 16 of 52 races—a 30.8% strike rate and an improvement of +16.4 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: -0.8 points (-1.5% ROI), with an A/E of 1.06. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Gavin Cromwell
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Gavin Cromwell's hurdle runners normally won 9.9% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 8 of 31 races—a 25.8% strike rate and an improvement of +15.9 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The move strengthened the strike rate, but blind backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -9.8 points (-31.6% ROI), with an A/E of 0.94. The signal needed additional horse and price context.
Harry Derham
Strong support · 5pp+What this means in plain English Harry Derham's hurdle runners normally won 17.7% of the time. When supported by at least 5 probability points, they won 7 of 21 races—a 33.3% strike rate and an improvement of +15.6 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The move strengthened the strike rate, but blind backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -2.2 points (-10.5% ROI), with an A/E of 0.99. The signal needed additional horse and price context.
James Owen
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English James Owen's hurdle runners normally won 15.9% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 12 of 39 races—a 30.8% strike rate and an improvement of +14.8 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: +0.1 points (+0.3% ROI), with an A/E of 1.01. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Jonjo & A J O'Neill
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Jonjo & A J O'Neill's hurdle runners normally won 13.4% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 8 of 29 races—a 27.6% strike rate and an improvement of +14.2 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The move strengthened the strike rate, but blind backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -4.9 points (-16.9% ROI), with an A/E of 0.92. The signal needed additional horse and price context.
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore's hurdle runners normally won 9.5% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 10 of 43 races—a 23.3% strike rate and an improvement of +13.7 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The move strengthened the strike rate, but blind backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -9.3 points (-21.5% ROI), with an A/E of 1.00. The signal needed additional horse and price context.
Donald McCain
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Donald McCain's hurdle runners normally won 12.9% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 11 of 42 races—a 26.2% strike rate and an improvement of +13.3 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: +3.1 points (+7.3% ROI), with an A/E of 1.02. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Nicky Richards
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Nicky Richards's hurdle runners normally won 16.3% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 10 of 34 races—a 29.4% strike rate and an improvement of +13.1 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +1.5 points (+4.3% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.23.
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero's hurdle runners normally won 13.7% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 9 of 36 races—a 25% strike rate and an improvement of +11.3 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: +8.6 points (+23.8% ROI), with an A/E of 0.96. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Micky Hammond
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Micky Hammond's hurdle runners normally won 12.6% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 5 of 21 races—a 23.8% strike rate and an improvement of +11.2 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The move strengthened the strike rate, but blind backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -5.8 points (-27.8% ROI), with an A/E of 0.97. The signal needed additional horse and price context.
Neil Mulholland
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Neil Mulholland's hurdle runners normally won 11.8% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 11 of 49 races—a 22.4% strike rate and an improvement of +10.7 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: -1.2 points (-2.4% ROI), with an A/E of 0.98. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Declan Queally
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Declan Queally's hurdle runners normally won 12.8% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 5 of 22 races—a 22.7% strike rate and an improvement of +9.9 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: +3.3 points (+15.1% ROI), with an A/E of 1.01. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Adam Nicol
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Adam Nicol's hurdle runners normally won 16.5% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 6 of 23 races—a 26.1% strike rate and an improvement of +9.6 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +5.8 points (+25% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.15.
Alan King
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Alan King's hurdle runners normally won 18.5% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 7 of 25 races—a 28% strike rate and an improvement of +9.5 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The move strengthened the strike rate, but blind backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -5.3 points (-21.1% ROI), with an A/E of 0.97. The signal needed additional horse and price context.
Chase trainer support evidence
Each yard appears at the first support level where its strike rate passed the evidence thresholds for sample size, improvement and A/E.
W P Mullins
Major support · 8pp+What this means in plain English W P Mullins's chase runners normally won 18.5% of the time. When supported by at least 8 probability points, they won 9 of 20 races—a 45% strike rate and an improvement of +26.5 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The move strengthened the strike rate, but blind backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -0.1 points (-0.4% ROI), with an A/E of 0.93. The signal needed additional horse and price context.
Dan Skelton
Major support · 8pp+What this means in plain English Dan Skelton's chase runners normally won 24.2% of the time. When supported by at least 8 probability points, they won 12 of 25 races—a 48% strike rate and an improvement of +23.8 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The supported runners were close to break-even at the recorded 10AM price: +2.3 points (+9.1% ROI), with an A/E of 1.02. The move was meaningful, but entry price remained important.
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore's chase runners normally won 11.2% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 8 of 29 races—a 27.6% strike rate and an improvement of +16.4 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +7.4 points (+25.6% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.26.
Olly Murphy
Major support · 8pp+What this means in plain English Olly Murphy's chase runners normally won 19.3% of the time. When supported by at least 8 probability points, they won 7 of 20 races—a 35% strike rate and an improvement of +15.7 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +2.7 points (+13.3% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.07.
Joe Tizzard
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Joe Tizzard's chase runners normally won 18% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 8 of 25 races—a 32% strike rate and an improvement of +14 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +8.4 points (+33.7% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.18.
Nicky Henderson
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Nicky Henderson's chase runners normally won 20.6% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 7 of 21 races—a 33.3% strike rate and an improvement of +12.7 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +3.8 points (+18.1% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.13.
Ben Pauling
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Ben Pauling's chase runners normally won 27.7% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 11 of 28 races—a 39.3% strike rate and an improvement of +11.6 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +2 points (+7.1% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.28.
Sam England
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Sam England's chase runners normally won 24.6% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 7 of 20 races—a 35% strike rate and an improvement of +10.4 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? Yes—historically there was still value left after the support was visible. Backing every qualifier at its recorded 10AM price returned +14.5 points (+72.3% ROI), with a trigger-price A/E of 1.30.
Mickey Bowen
Noticeable support · 3pp+What this means in plain English Mickey Bowen's chase runners normally won 18.9% of the time. When supported by at least 3 probability points, they won 11 of 40 races—a 27.5% strike rate and an improvement of +8.6 points.
Was there still money left after the trigger? The move strengthened the strike rate, but blind backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -6.7 points (-16.9% ROI), with an A/E of 0.97. The signal needed additional horse and price context.
Know the trigger—then watch for it in today’s market.
Use the Live Terminal to monitor meaningful support in probability points. When one of these yards reaches its historical trigger, open the runner and judge the move alongside the horse’s own Market Form, race context and available price.
Historical results do not guarantee future performance. A stronger historical strike rate is evidence for further investigation—not an instruction to back every qualifying runner. Always consider the horse, race and available price.