National Hunt trainer-course intelligence

Know which trainers strengthen.At the courses where it matters.

These are specific trainer × course × discipline patterns. Each one shows what happened when that trainer’s runners received visible support—and whether value remained at the recorded 10AM price.

Evidence rebuilt 26 October 2026, 05:43
01 · Match the evidenceTrainer, course and code

All three must match today’s runner.

02 · Learn the triggerNote the required +pp

Support is measured in probability points.

03 · Set notificationsChoose the +pp alert

Let the Live Terminal monitor the market.

04 · Check the edgeJudge today’s price

Use the sample, 10AM ROI and A/E before acting.

Clear value remained11

Positive 10AM ROI with trigger-price A/E of at least 1.05.

Price-sensitive0

Support mattered, but the entry price required care.

Price edge gone1

The strike rate rose, but blind backing was not profitable.

11 course and discipline patterns

Clear value remained

These patterns retained positive historical value at the recorded 10AM price.

W P Mullins

Punchestown (IRE)
Chase3pp+ trigger
Normal SR14.6%
Supported SR41.7%
10AM ROI+88.2%
10AM A/E1.52

What this meansW P Mullins’s chase runners at Punchestown (IRE) normally won 14.6% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 5 of 12 races—a 41.7% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +10.6 points, +88.2% ROI and 1.52 A/E.

Punchestown (IRE) · Chase

W P Mullins

Normal course record8/5514.6% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support5/1241.7% strike rate; uplift of +27.1pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+10.6 pts+88.2% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.52Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When W P Mullins had a chase runner at Punchestown (IRE) supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 12 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Dan Skelton

Uttoxeter
Chase3pp+ trigger
Normal SR34.6%
Supported SR60%
10AM ROI+47.2%
10AM A/E1.32

What this meansDan Skelton’s chase runners at Uttoxeter normally won 34.6% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 6 of 10 races—a 60% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +4.7 points, +47.2% ROI and 1.32 A/E.

Uttoxeter · Chase

Dan Skelton

Normal course record9/2634.6% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support6/1060% strike rate; uplift of +25.4pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+4.7 pts+47.2% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.32Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Dan Skelton had a chase runner at Uttoxeter supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 10 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Mickey Bowen

Cartmel
Chase3pp+ trigger
Normal SR19.1%
Supported SR33.3%
10AM ROI+6.3%
10AM A/E1.15

What this meansMickey Bowen’s chase runners at Cartmel normally won 19.1% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 4 of 12 races—a 33.3% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +0.8 points, +6.3% ROI and 1.15 A/E.

Cartmel · Chase

Mickey Bowen

Normal course record4/2119.1% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support4/1233.3% strike rate; uplift of +14.3pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+0.8 pts+6.3% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.15Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Mickey Bowen had a chase runner at Cartmel supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 12 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

R Mike Smith

Perth
Hurdle3pp+ trigger
Normal SR9.5%
Supported SR23.1%
10AM ROI+84.6%
10AM A/E1.32

What this meansR Mike Smith’s hurdle runners at Perth normally won 9.5% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 3 of 13 races—a 23.1% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +11 points, +84.6% ROI and 1.32 A/E.

Perth · Hurdle

R Mike Smith

Normal course record4/429.5% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support3/1323.1% strike rate; uplift of +13.6pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+11 pts+84.6% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.32Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When R Mike Smith had a hurdle runner at Perth supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 13 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Dan Skelton

Newton Abbot
Hurdle3pp+ trigger
Normal SR43.3%
Supported SR72.7%
10AM ROI+76.4%
10AM A/E1.48

What this meansDan Skelton’s hurdle runners at Newton Abbot normally won 43.3% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 8 of 11 races—a 72.7% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +8.4 points, +76.4% ROI and 1.48 A/E.

Newton Abbot · Hurdle

Dan Skelton

Normal course record13/3043.3% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support8/1172.7% strike rate; uplift of +29.4pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+8.4 pts+76.4% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.48Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Dan Skelton had a hurdle runner at Newton Abbot supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 11 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Chris Gordon

Plumpton
Hurdle3pp+ trigger
Normal SR32%
Supported SR40%
10AM ROI+57.5%
10AM A/E1.48

What this meansChris Gordon’s hurdle runners at Plumpton normally won 32% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 4 of 10 races—a 40% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +5.8 points, +57.5% ROI and 1.48 A/E.

Plumpton · Hurdle

Chris Gordon

Normal course record8/2532% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support4/1040% strike rate; uplift of +8pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+5.8 pts+57.5% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.48Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Chris Gordon had a hurdle runner at Plumpton supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 10 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Donald McCain

Bangor-on-Dee
Hurdle3pp+ trigger
Normal SR15.4%
Supported SR33.3%
10AM ROI+55.6%
10AM A/E1.44

What this meansDonald McCain’s hurdle runners at Bangor-on-Dee normally won 15.4% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 3 of 9 races—a 33.3% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +5 points, +55.6% ROI and 1.44 A/E.

Bangor-on-Dee · Hurdle

Donald McCain

Normal course record6/3915.4% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support3/933.3% strike rate; uplift of +18.0pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+5 pts+55.6% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.44Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Donald McCain had a hurdle runner at Bangor-on-Dee supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 9 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Henrietta C Knight

Fontwell
Hurdle3pp+ trigger
Normal SR27.3%
Supported SR37.5%
10AM ROI+44.8%
10AM A/E1.48

What this meansHenrietta C Knight’s hurdle runners at Fontwell normally won 27.3% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 3 of 8 races—a 37.5% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +3.6 points, +44.8% ROI and 1.48 A/E.

Fontwell · Hurdle

Henrietta C Knight

Normal course record6/2227.3% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support3/837.5% strike rate; uplift of +10.2pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+3.6 pts+44.8% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.48Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Henrietta C Knight had a hurdle runner at Fontwell supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 8 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

Kelso
Hurdle3pp+ trigger
Normal SR11.1%
Supported SR50%
10AM ROI+40.5%
10AM A/E1.66

What this meansLucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore’s hurdle runners at Kelso normally won 11.1% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 4 of 8 races—a 50% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +3.2 points, +40.5% ROI and 1.66 A/E.

Kelso · Hurdle

Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

Normal course record4/3611.1% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support4/850% strike rate; uplift of +38.9pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+3.2 pts+40.5% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.66Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore had a hurdle runner at Kelso supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 8 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Dan Skelton

Stratford
Hurdle3pp+ trigger
Normal SR33.3%
Supported SR50%
10AM ROI+9.2%
10AM A/E1.14

What this meansDan Skelton’s hurdle runners at Stratford normally won 33.3% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 5 of 10 races—a 50% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +0.9 points, +9.2% ROI and 1.14 A/E.

Stratford · Hurdle

Dan Skelton

Normal course record9/2733.3% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support5/1050% strike rate; uplift of +16.7pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+0.9 pts+9.2% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.14Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Dan Skelton had a hurdle runner at Stratford supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 10 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Olly Murphy

Worcester
Hurdle3pp+ trigger
Normal SR27.8%
Supported SR40%
10AM ROI+4.2%
10AM A/E1.19

What this meansOlly Murphy’s hurdle runners at Worcester normally won 27.8% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 4 of 10 races—a 40% strike rate.

The edge was still available after the move became visible. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned +0.4 points, +4.2% ROI and 1.19 A/E.

Worcester · Hurdle

Olly Murphy

Normal course record10/3627.8% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support4/1040% strike rate; uplift of +12.2pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price+0.4 pts+4.2% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E1.19Winners met or exceeded the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Olly Murphy had a hurdle runner at Worcester supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 10 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

1 course and discipline patterns

The move was real—but the edge had gone

These are valuable warnings: the winning chance improved, but the 10AM price was historically too short.

Show 1 patterns

Olly Murphy

Market Rasen
Hurdle3pp+ trigger
Normal SR25%
Supported SR40%
10AM ROI-24%
10AM A/E0.96

What this meansOlly Murphy’s hurdle runners at Market Rasen normally won 25% of the time. After at least 3pp support, they won 4 of 10 races—a 40% strike rate.

Do not chase the move blindly. Backing at the recorded 10AM price returned -2.4 points, -24% ROI and 0.96 A/E.

Market Rasen · Hurdle

Olly Murphy

Normal course record5/2025% strike rate before applying the support rule.
After 3pp+ support4/1040% strike rate; uplift of +15pp.
Value at recorded 10AM price-2.4 pts-24% ROI from backing every supported qualifier.
Trigger-price A/E0.96Winners fell below the expectation implied by the recorded prices.

Evidence reading: When Olly Murphy had a hurdle runner at Market Rasen supported by at least 3 probability points, both the strike rate and the return at the recorded 10AM price improved.

Sample warning: This supported record contains 10 runners. Treat it as developing evidence for further investigation—not certainty or an instruction to back automatically. Large ROI figures can be affected by one or two bigger-priced winners.

Evidence window: latest 48 months · Bookmaker opening price to recorded 10AM price · £1 level stakes · Hurdle and Chase records assessed separately.

Match the trainer. Match the course. Set the trigger.

When all three conditions match—trainer, course and Hurdle or Chase—set the probability-point notification in the Live Terminal. When alerted, check the horse’s own Market Form and today’s available price.

Open Pro Terminal →Open Course Research →

Historical results do not guarantee future performance. Course evidence is a research and monitoring tool, not an instruction to back every runner that reaches a trigger.