Market Form® · A guide to our ratings
Every runner rated.
A clearer view of the market.
Market Form brings the evidence behind a price move into one clear rating, helping you identify the runners whose market deserves a closer look.
We rate every runner in the field on a 0–100 scale. Each horse’s rating reflects its own market behaviour and the available evidence behind that behaviour.
Illustrative rating
Strong positive market evidence
Start with 50. Read the evidence.
50 is our neutral starting point. Meaningful market activity and supporting historical evidence can move the score higher or lower. The final score is rounded and kept within 0–100.
An MF rating of 88 does not mean an 88% chance of winning. The rating measures market evidence. A horse rated 50 can win; a horse rated 88 can lose.
A neutral score can mean there has been no meaningful market signal, that the evidence is mixed, or that a non-runner adjustment is still awaiting reliable prices.
What goes into the rating?
We combine today’s market with the horse’s previous behaviour and the trainer’s comparable record. Each part contributes in context; the same price move can mean different things for different horses.
The average price move
We use the average fixed-odds market across the eligible bookmakers available to us. We assess whether the horse has attracted meaningful support or shown meaningful weakness relative to its opening position.
The size of the move matters. Small changes alone do not create a strong directional rating.
How the move developed
We consider the available stages of the horse’s price journey. Support that weakens later, or a drift that partly reverses, can change the contribution from today’s market.
The rating can therefore change before the race as the evidence develops.
What happened in comparable markets?
When supported, has this horse previously finished first or second under comparable market conditions? Have those outcomes included wins?
When drifting, has it repeatedly failed to finish first or second—or shown that it can still perform despite market weakness? The available sample helps determine how much weight that record carries.
Does this trainer’s market mean more?
We compare the trainer’s win rate under matching market conditions with their normal eligible win rate. Support is more persuasive when comparable supported runners have performed better than that baseline.
Trainer evidence can also add caution. Sample size matters: a small record contributes less than a substantial comparable record.
Is this an unusual move for this horse?
We compare today’s move with the horse’s previous recorded moves in the same direction. Its strongest recorded support or largest recorded drift can carry more significance than familiar, routine behaviour.
That comparison supports the wider assessment; it does not replace the horse’s outcomes or trainer evidence.
Class, course, distance and going
A class drop can strengthen an already supported case. A step up in class can add caution.
Alongside meaningful support and a comparable successful record, matching the course, distance, going and class of a previous successful run can provide a modest additional contribution. A class drop alone does not create a high rating.
Repeat signals and continuation
A confirmed repeat signal can reinforce support when the horse has a previous comparable win.
Eligible historical evidence that support tends to continue after 10am can also add a small reinforcement when the sample and corroborating evidence meet the same requirements used by the Live Terminal.
Separate genuine support from a reshaped market
A withdrawal can shorten the remaining runners’ prices without new support arriving for them. We adjust for measured non-runner price effects while retaining genuine movement.
If reliable prices needed for that adjustment are still missing, the rating remains neutral at 50 until the adjustment can be completed.
The evidence must tell a consistent story.
After combining the contributions, we apply consistency checks so the number supports the market assessment. Significant trainer support can establish a positive grade. Repeated failures under comparable drift conditions can strengthen a negative grade.
Conflicting evidence matters too. A trainer warning can limit a positive score, while a horse that has previously performed despite drifting may warrant a more balanced assessment.
Why a horse might reach the high 80s
A particularly strong combination could include:
- Meaningful support in today’s average market.
- Multiple comparable runs, all finishing first or second, including a win.
- A substantial matching trainer sample showing a meaningful improvement on the trainer’s normal win rate.
- A drop in class accompanying that support.
When the qualifying evidence aligns in this way, the engine can establish a rating of at least 88. The score reflects the strength of that combined case.
“Top-rated” and “high-rated” mean different things.
Top-rated: a comparison within the race
The top-rated runner has the highest MF score in its own field. That score could be 88—or it could be neutral 50.
Several horses can share the highest score. We show joint leaders together and do not invent a tie-breaker.
High-rated: strong evidence on the scale
A score in the Strong Positive band, from 80 to 100, describes particularly strong combined market evidence.
A race full of neutral ratings has no strong positive selection simply because some runners appear at the top.
How to use the ratings
- Open the meeting and race.Compare the ratings across the whole field and identify the highest score, including any joint leaders.
- Check the grade as well as the rank.A top score of 50 tells a different story from a top score of 88.
- Read the evidence behind the number.Look at the horse’s comparable outcomes, the trainer effect and today’s market context.
- Follow the outcome.Use the results guide to see how the saved pre-off ratings performed, including the runners that finished outside the first three.
Your questions answered
Why do the ratings change before the race?
Prices and market evidence develop during the day. New support, a reversal or a completed non-runner adjustment can alter the assessment. The results guide uses the saved rating from before the scheduled off; completed races are not rated again using their result.
Does a bigger price shortening always mean a higher rating?
No. The horse’s comparable record, matching trainer evidence, class and other eligible context can strengthen or weaken the case. A large move with poor supporting evidence does not automatically deserve a high score.
What is the difference between rating and confidence?
The rating describes the direction and strength of the combined market evidence. Confidence describes the depth of the usable evidence behind it. A substantial matching trainer record can support the assessment even when the horse’s own comparable history is limited.
Are the ratings based on one bookmaker?
They use the eligible average fixed-odds market available to us, rather than a single bookmaker’s price. The available bookmaker coverage can vary by horse and race.
How do you count results when horses share the top rating?
The daily review counts each completed race once when reporting whether the highest rating included the winner. All joint leaders are considered, and ties are disclosed. Races with pending top-rated results are excluded from the headline percentages until those results are known.
Does a high rating tell me the horse is good value?
The MF rating grades market evidence. It does not calculate fair odds or a percentage chance of winning. Use the score and its explanation alongside your assessment of the race and the price available.