Serious Stable Gamble Detected: Venetian Lion Backed by 26.8pp at Kempton (AW)
Market Form® has detected exceptional market support for Venetian Lion in the 2026-09-30 19:00:00 Kempton (AW).
The price has moved from 3.00 to 1.62. After accounting for declared non-runners, that represents a genuine move of +26.75 probability points. The alert was recorded at 19:50:03.
Why this move matters
A move of this size is far beyond ordinary market fluctuation. It means the market-implied chance attached to the runner has increased by more than 25 percentage points from its true opening position.
The raw move was +28.40pp. Market Form measured a +1.64pp non-runner effect and removed it before issuing this alert.
Trainer market context
In the historical Market Form sample, William Haggas has had 17 runners supported by at least 20pp from opening price to SP. 6 won, a strike rate of 35.3%, for an SP return of -6.74 points. The stable’s like-for-like baseline strike rate is 19.3%.
Horse-specific evidence
Market Form does not yet hold a meaningful previous-support sample for this horse.
How to use this alert
This is evidence of exceptional market support, not a recommendation to back the horse blindly. Price, race conditions and the wider form picture should still be considered. Market Form identifies what the move means and removes the distortion caused by non-runners.