Market Form Morning Brief: Monday 28 September 2026
Monday 28 September 2026 · bookmaker prices only · historical context from the Market Form database.
Official non-runner price effects are measured and removed from signal calculations. Genuine market movement before and after each withdrawal is retained.
1. The market in 60 seconds
Strongest support: Matiwo — 14:25 Newton Abbot NR-ADJUSTED · 4/5 → 2/7 · +21.14pp.
Biggest drift: Premier View — 13:24 Down Royal NR-ADJUSTED · 8/11 → 7/4 · -27.00pp.
2. Three moves you need to know
Strongest support recorded across 6 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
Trainer context: A Oliver has a baseline win rate of 8.3%. At 5pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 4/12 (33.3%) — an uplift of +25 points.
Strongest support recorded across 9 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
Historical delivery level: 0.75pp+. At that level or stronger, 3/3 finished first or second (100%). Today: reached.
Strongest support recorded across 4 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
Trainer context: Adam Kirby has a baseline win rate of 10%. At 10pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 3/14 (21.4%) — an uplift of +11.4 points.
3. The market warning
A drift is not automatically a lay. The point is whether today's weakness resembles the markets in which this horse has previously failed — or whether it has historically ignored market weakness.
4. Trainer money: which yards are attracting support?
Strongest: Essence Of Time (14:34 Down Royal) at +10.39pp.
Yard baseline: 8.3%. When receiving 10pp+ support by 1pm: 3/7 won (42.9%).
Strongest: Matiwo (14:25 Newton Abbot) at +21.14pp.
Strongest: Candy Warhol (17:00 Brighton) at +7.71pp.
Yard baseline: 6.4%. When receiving 5pp+ support by 1pm: 4/36 won (11.1%).
5. The race everyone should open
This is the most active race in the 9am snapshot: 5 meaningful market signals, including 2 supported and 3 drifting runners.
Key market activity: Supremissy (-8.97pp) · Great Profit (+8.18pp) · Impressor (-11.98pp) · Roach Power (+6.15pp).
6. The historical signal of the morning
All of this horse's recorded top-two evidence creates a delivery level of 0.75pp+. At that level or stronger, 3/3 finished first or second (100%). Today's move is +8.08pp.
7. What to watch before 1pm
- Connecteo — if support reaches 10pp+, this yard's historical win rate rises to 42.9%.
- The Anthony Gover — watch whether the early move holds, strengthens or gives ground back as more bookmaker money arrives.
- Danger Alert — if support reaches 15pp+, this yard's historical win rate rises to 40%.
Every runner. Live bookmaker prices. Historical market comparisons. Trainer behaviour. Delivery levels. The full market journey as it develops through the day.
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