Gamble brewing at Down Royal?
Two Oliver runners backed at Down Royal: is a gamble brewing?
Four Andrew Oliver runners backed at Down Royal — is a gamble brewing?
One horse shortening in the market is worth a look. Four from the same stable at one meeting demands a closer one.
Market Form’s Stable Intent screen has flagged four Andrew Oliver runners attracting support at Down Royal today:
| Race | Horse | Opening price | Latest Bet365 price shown |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:34 | Essence Of Time | 5/1 | 5/2 |
| 16:19 | Chapel Island | 8/1 | 5/1 |
| 16:50 | Connecteo | 7/1 | 4/1 |
| 17:25 | Youcansaythatagain | 15/2 | 13/2 |
Prices are those captured in Market Form’s screenshot this morning and may have changed.
There is another detail here: Essence Of Time and Connecteo are both recorded as owned and trained by A Oliver. With those two runners attracting particularly strong support, it is fair to ask whether something is afoot. It is not possible to establish from a price move who placed the bets or what the trainer expects.
This is where the stable’s history adds context. Across Market Form’s recorded trainer days, Oliver averages 0.8 supported runners per day. Today there are four. The platform also records a winner on 33.3% of days when two or more of the stable’s runners were backed.
The size of the moves matters too. Market Form shows a +11.90 percentage point true move for Essence Of Time and +7.50 points for Connecteo. In its historical Open-to-10am data, Oliver runners attracting at least five points of support won four of 13; those attracting at least ten points won one of two. Those are striking figures, although the samples are far too small to treat as a reliable prediction.
There is a useful note of restraint in the horses’ own histories. Essence Of Time was previously backed by ten points or more and finished seventh. Connecteo was previously backed by five points or more and finished fourth. The money has been wrong before.
So, is this a planned stable gamble? We cannot know that from the market. What we can see is an unusually busy morning of support for Oliver, including two horses he also owns. Keep an eye on whether the backing holds across bookmakers as the races approach. Today’s results will tell us whether the market spotted something — or got carried away.
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