Serious Stable Gamble Detected: Bearwith Backed by 25.3pp at Southwell (AW)
Market Form® has detected exceptional market support for Bearwith in the 2026-09-24 20:30:00 Southwell (AW).
The price has moved from 9.00 to 2.75. After accounting for declared non-runners, that represents a genuine move of +25.25 probability points. The alert was recorded at 21:30:52.
Why this move matters
A move of this size is far beyond ordinary market fluctuation. It means the market-implied chance attached to the runner has increased by more than 25 percentage points from its true opening position.
No measurable non-runner price effect has been included in the reported move.
Trainer market context
In the historical Market Form sample, Harriet Bethell has had 1 runners supported by at least 20pp from opening price to SP. 1 won, a strike rate of 100.0%, for an SP return of +2.25 points. The stable’s like-for-like baseline strike rate is 18.4%.
Horse-specific evidence
Bearwith has previously been backed in 4 recorded races. The recorded finishing positions were 5th, 1st, 4th, 3rd.
How to use this alert
This is evidence of exceptional market support, not a recommendation to back the horse blindly. Price, race conditions and the wider form picture should still be considered. Market Form identifies what the move means and removes the distortion caused by non-runners.