Market Form Morning Brief: Sunday 20 September 2026
Sunday 20 September 2026 · bookmaker prices only · historical context from the Market Form database.
Official non-runner price effects are measured and removed from signal calculations. Genuine market movement before and after each withdrawal is retained.
1. The market in 60 seconds
Strongest support: Siorai — 02:08 Plumpton · 6/5 → 4/6 · +14.43pp.
Biggest drift: Majestic Force — 02:48 Listowel · 2/1 → 4/1 · -13.33pp.
2. Three moves you need to know
Strongest support recorded across 5 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
Trainer context: Harry Derham has a baseline win rate of 18.8%. At 10pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 5/20 (25%) — an uplift of +6.2 points.
Strongest support recorded across 3 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
Strongest support recorded across 5 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
Trainer context: John J Nallen has a baseline win rate of 16.1%. At 5pp+ support by 1pm, that record is 3/13 (23.1%) — an uplift of +7 points.
3. The market warning
Largest drift recorded across 3 previous 10am market snapshots.
Historical percentile: 100th.
A drift is not automatically a lay. The point is whether today's weakness resembles the markets in which this horse has previously failed — or whether it has historically ignored market weakness.
4. Trainer money: which yards are attracting support?
Strongest: Run Ted Run (03:48 Listowel) at +11.49pp.
Strongest: Siorai (02:08 Plumpton) at +14.43pp.
Yard baseline: 18.8%. When receiving 10pp+ support by 1pm: 5/20 won (25%).
Strongest: Tumbling In (02:48 Listowel) at +10.73pp.
5. The race everyone should open
This is the most active race in the 9am snapshot: 7 meaningful market signals, including 0 supported and 7 drifting runners.
Key market activity: Boomtown Rock (-4.06pp) · Paidi's Pet (-4.17pp) · Cloneen To The Max (-4.32pp) · Green Hint (-6.17pp).
6. The historical signal of the morning
Today's move sits in the 100th historical percentile for this horse at the comparable morning stage. Only 0 of 5 previous runs produced a stronger move.
7. What to watch before 1pm
- Siorai — watch whether the early move holds, strengthens or gives ground back as more bookmaker money arrives.
- Tumbling In — watch whether the early move holds, strengthens or gives ground back as more bookmaker money arrives.
- Minella Buoy — if support reaches 10pp+, this yard's historical win rate rises to 66.7%.
Every runner. Live bookmaker prices. Historical market comparisons. Trainer behaviour. Delivery levels. The full market journey as it develops through the day.
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