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ALLBACKED 💰DRIFTERS
01 · Strongest support
Racing silks
Son
50
13:50 Ascot
+0.45pp
True move after NR adjustment · 17/2 → 8/1
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Favourites currently holding
No short-priced upcoming runner has weakened by at least 2 probability points.
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
13:50Ascot • 0m7f0y • Class 4 • Going: Good
5 runners
Market Intelligence
Strongest support: The Bitter Moose (+0.17 probability points)
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Racing silksSonDraw 13
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Jockey: Mr Thomas Easterby(3)
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
Horse & Trainer Evidence
When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 151/1143; first seen between 10am and 1pm 66/1143; first seen after 1pm 34/1143.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/12; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/12; first seen after 1pm 0/12.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.45pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 45/186 won (24.2%); Open→SP 47/195 won (24.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 34.1% (29/85).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral
Last run13 days ago · 19 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
Usually attracts bookmaker support
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 12 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 9/1 | Avg: 11/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (50%)
13:50Ascot
Opened 17/2Market avg 8/1
17/2 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 17/2
PRICE MOVE
+0.45pp (+4.1%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
58th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE58th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
5 of 12 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Beverley on 29 Aug 2026 (+7.02pp); finished 2nd at Carlisle on 19 Aug 2026 (+3.03pp); finished 6th at York on 25 Jul 2026 (+1.39pp); finished 13th at York on 10 Jul 2026 (+0.55pp); and finished 4th at Musselburgh on 30 Jun 2026 (+11.11pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 4.1% • +0.45 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Musselburgh, 30 Jun 2026 — 4th • open 7/2 → final 7/4 (+14.14pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS
17/2 9.5 decimal 7Bet
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → 1pm1pmLast → SP/NowSP / currentFinishTotal pp
AscotToday7f · Class 4 · Good · 18 runners17/2—No checkpoint——No checkpoint—+0.45ppOpen → now8/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.45pp
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 5 of 12 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Son is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Haydock · 09 May 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Ascot · previous Haydock✓Trip (within ½f): 7f✓Ground: Good✓Class: Class 4
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
All 4 previous top-two finishes came with support of 0.9pp+.
At 0.9pp+: 4/8 finished 1st or 2nd (50%).
Today: +0.45pp — trigger not reached.
Possible next price: 9/1
12 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
Racing silksRock OperaDraw 12
Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey
Jockey: Mr Eireann Cagney
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
Horse & Trainer Evidence
When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 76/608; first seen between 10am and 1pm 28/608; first seen after 1pm 15/608.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/9; first seen after 1pm 1/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.08pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 21/84 won (25%); Open→SP 24/79 won (30.4%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 35.5% (11/31).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral
Last run29 days ago · 3 Sep 2026
Distance changeUp 0.9f from last run
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 9/2 | Avg: 7/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (44%)
13:50Ascot
Opened 12/1Market avg 12/1
12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.08pp (+1.0%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
6 of 9 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 10th at Southwell (AW) on 03 Sep 2026 (+2.46pp); finished 11th at Doncaster on 15 Aug 2026 (+7.07pp); finished 9th at York on 11 Jul 2026 (+5.38pp); finished 1st at Pontefract on 02 Jun 2026 (+2.80pp); finished 4th at Hamilton on 17 May 2026 (+2.31pp); and finished 3rd at Thirsk on 02 May 2026 (+1.52pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 1% • +0.08 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Doncaster, 15 Aug 2026 — 11th • open 8/1 → final 4/1 (+8.89pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS
12/1 13 decimal 7Bet
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → 1pm1pmLast → SP/NowSP / currentFinishTotal pp
AscotToday7f · Class 4 · Good · 18 runners12/1—No checkpoint——No checkpoint—+0.08ppOpen → now12/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.08pp
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

6 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Rock Opera is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Pontefract · 02 Jun 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Ascot · previous Pontefract×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f · previous 6f✓Ground: Good✓Class: Class 4
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: +0.08pp
Possible next price: 12/1
9 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Mr Jack Loughnane(7)
🟢 Needs Support (17%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.
Horse & Trainer Evidence
When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard Hannon (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 94/764; first seen between 10am and 1pm 47/764; first seen after 1pm 34/764.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/12; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/12; first seen after 1pm 0/12.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.35pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 29/121 won (24%); Open→SP 31/138 won (22.5%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 28.8% (19/66).
⬆ CLASS RISE
Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral
Last run8 days ago · 24 Sep 2026
Distance changeDown 1f from last run
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 12 | Fixed-odds range: 5/6 → 17/2 | Avg: 9/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (33%)
13:50Ascot
Opened 16/1Market avg 16/1
16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 ↑ 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.35pp (+5.6%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
58th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE58th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
5 of 12 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 4th at Newmarket on 24 Sep 2026 (+1.57pp); finished 2nd at York on 23 May 2026 (+0.76pp); finished 2nd at Bath on 29 Apr 2026 (+22.62pp); finished 10th at Southwell (AW) on 07 Apr 2026 (+2.31pp); and finished 2nd at Lingfield (AW) on 07 Feb 2026 (+13.89pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 5.6% • +0.35 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Bath, 29 Apr 2026 — 2nd • open 3/1 → final 5/6 (+29.64pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS
16/1 17 decimal 7Bet
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → 1pm1pmLast → SP/NowSP / currentFinishTotal pp
AscotToday7f · Class 4 · Good · 18 runners16/1—No checkpoint——No checkpoint—+0.35ppOpen → now16/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.35pp
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 5 of 12 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Signcastle City is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: York · 23 May 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Ascot · previous York✓Trip (within ½f): 7f✓Ground: Good✓Class: Class 4
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.
Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

  • Lingfield (AW), 12 May 2026 — 3rd • open 11/2 → 1pm 7/2 → final 11/2
  • Lingfield (AW), 07 Feb 2026 — 2nd • open 11/1 → 10am 7/2 → final 4/1
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
All 3 previous top-two finishes came with support of 2.19pp+.
At 2.19pp+: 3/6 finished 1st or 2nd (50%).
Today: +0.35pp — trigger not reached.
Possible next price: 18/1
12 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
Trainer: Iain Jardine
Jockey: Mr Lucas Murphy(5)
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
Horse & Trainer Evidence
When has support appeared?

Trainer Iain Jardine (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 45/472; first seen between 10am and 1pm 26/472; first seen after 1pm 9/472.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.02pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/60 won (25%); Open→SP 11/54 won (20.4%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 26.1% (6/23).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral
Last run48 days ago · 15 Aug 2026
Distance changeUp 1f from last run
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 11/1 | Avg: 7/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (60%)
13:50Ascot
Opened 25/1Market avg 25/1
25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 25/1 → 25/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.02pp (+0.5%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
40th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE40th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
3 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 1st at Ayr on 05 Jul 2026 (+2.20pp); finished 1st at Carlisle on 24 Jun 2026 (+1.67pp); and finished 6th at Hamilton on 17 May 2026 (+0.40pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 0.5% • +0.02 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Carlisle, 24 Jun 2026 — 1st • open 14/1 → final 11/1 (+1.67pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS
28/1 29 decimal Bet365
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → 1pm1pmLast → SP/NowSP / currentFinishTotal pp
AscotToday7f · Class 4 · Good · 18 runners25/1—No checkpoint——No checkpoint—+0.02ppOpen → now25/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.02pp
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Who Wants Me is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Carlisle · 24 Jun 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Ascot · previous Carlisle✓Trip (within ½f): 7f×Ground: Today Good · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 4
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: +0.02pp
Possible next price: 25/1
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
Trainer: Patrick Chamings
Jockey: Mr Frederick Tett
Horse & Trainer Evidence
When has support appeared?

Trainer Patrick Chamings (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 4/91; first seen between 10am and 1pm 6/91; first seen after 1pm 2/91.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.17pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/9 won (11.1%); Open→SP 1/8 won (12.5%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
⬆ CLASS RISE
Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral
Last run11 days ago · 21 Sep 2026
Distance changeUp 1f from last run
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (43%)
13:50Ascot
Opened 33/1Market avg 33/1
33/1 → 33/1 → 33/1 → 33/1 → 33/1 → 33/1 → 33/1 ↑ 40/1 ↓ 33/1 ↑ 33/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.17pp (+5.7%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
71th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE71st HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
2 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 6th at Leicester on 21 Sep 2026 (+2.78pp); and finished 3rd at Lingfield (AW) on 20 Aug 2026 (+2.67pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 5.7% • +0.17 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Leicester, 21 Sep 2026 — 6th • open 16/1 → final 11/1 (+2.78pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS
40/1 41 decimal Bet365
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → 1pm1pmLast → SP/NowSP / currentFinishTotal pp
AscotToday7f · Class 4 · Good · 18 runners33/1—No checkpoint——No checkpoint—+0.17ppOpen → now33/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.17pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: The Bitter Moose is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
7 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.
Today: +0.17pp
Possible next price: 40/1
7 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Course record
Course evidence at Ascot is limited (2 runs without making the frame). Today's market is 66% bigger than usual against an average course SP profile of 20.5.
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
Race market overview as at 04:29
  • Supported0 of 18 runners at +4pp or more
  • Drifting0 of 18 runners at −4pp or worse
  • Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
  • Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.
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