HOW TO READ THE LIVE MARKET
Work through the terminal in this order. Start with market weakness, then demand positive historical evidence before treating support as significant. The strongest case is where the horse and trainer evidence agree.
INTELLIGENCE CONNECTING…
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Today's move is -7.32pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 5/22 won (22.7%), compared with the yard's normal 13.8% strike rate.
The sample is reliable enough to inspect, but the strike-rate fall is not large enough to call a serious trainer warning.
Move evidence
There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 5/22 won (22.7%), compared with the yard's normal 13.8% strike rate. Despite dropping from Class 4 to Class 5, the market is still weakening. Today’s move: Shane's Spirit has moved from 8/15 to 8/11, a developing drift (-7.32pp). Context verdict: despite the size of the move, the evidence is not strong enough to make this drift a serious concern because the trainer normally wins about 14 in every 100 runners and still wins about 23 in every 100 when they drift like this, so this weakness has not reduced the yard’s success and there is not enough comparable horse evidence to show that this degree of weakness harms its performance.
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
TIMING & CONTEXT
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Today's move is -3.33pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.
Move evidence
There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Missy Moises is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
TIMING & CONTEXT
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Today's move is -4.99pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.
Move evidence
There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Trainer-specific drift evidence begins at the -5pp band, which has not yet been reached. Today’s move: Company Charge has moved from 9/2 to 13/2, a developing drift (-4.99pp). Context verdict: despite the size of the move, the evidence is not strong enough to make this drift a serious concern because there is no reliable matching trainer sample and there is not enough comparable horse evidence to show that this degree of weakness harms its performance.
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
TIMING & CONTEXT
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Today's move is -1.91pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.
Move evidence
There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: On The Fly is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
TIMING & CONTEXT
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Today's move is -1.23pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.
Move evidence
There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Merci Vieil Ami is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
TIMING & CONTEXT
Shane's Spirit is the only notable weakness, but the drift is visible but lacks enough evidence to become a serious negative. Actionable read: do not oppose Shane's Spirit from the drift alone.
Get live market movement straight to your device.
Choose a horse and receive instant notifications when meaningful support or market weakness is detected.
