HOW TO READ THE LIVE MARKET

Across 7 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 2 runs. The trainer evidence is important here: At 10pp+: Open→1PM 2/13 won (15.4%); Open→SP 1/9 won (11.1%). The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 2 to Class 3, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Nap Hand has shortened from 10/3 to 6/4, which is strong support (+13.28pp). Context verdict: the support is visible, but the evidence is not strong enough to materially improve the betting case because the trainer normally wins about 14 in every 100 runners and about 15 in every 100 when backed like this, which is not a big enough improvement to strengthen the bet materially and the horse’s comparable record does not yet provide strong outcome confirmation.

4 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Under comparable market conditions it has finished first or second in 4 of 4 runs, including 2 wins. It is also stepping up from Class 4 to Class 3, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Eternal Angel is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Across 4 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 2/9 won (22.2%), compared with the yard's normal 18% strike rate. It is also stepping up from Class 4 to Class 3, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Mojito des Mottes has moved from 15/8 to 11/4, a significant drift (-13.90pp). Context verdict: despite the size of the move, the evidence is not strong enough to make this drift a serious concern because the trainer normally wins about 18 in every 100 runners and still wins about 22 in every 100 when they drift like this, so this weakness has not reduced the yard’s success and there is not enough comparable horse evidence to show that this degree of weakness harms its performance.

3 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Gower Prince is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

6 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Zillow is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.