LIVE MARKET PRESSURE ⓘ
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01 · Strongest support
Nap Hand
56
04:08 Plumpton
+13.28pp
True move after NR adjustment · 10/3 → 6/4
02 · Repeat evidence
Nap Hand
56
04:08 Plumpton
Signal active
Today’s market has matched a previous successful movement pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Mojito des Mottes
58
04:08 Plumpton
-13.90pp
True move after NR adjustment · 15/8 → 11/4
LIVE MARKET TERMINAL: MARKET FORM ACTIVE

HOW TO READ THE LIVE MARKET

Work through the terminal in this order. Start with market weakness, then demand positive historical evidence before treating support as significant. The strongest case is where the horse and trainer evidence agree.

01MARKET WEAKNESSFind weak favourites
02HORSE EVIDENCEFind a positive market profile
03SUPPORT LEVELCheck historical trigger points
04TRAINER CONTEXTMatch support to an increased strike rate
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Hamilton 🔒Listowel 🔒Plumpton ✓
ALLBACKED 💰DRIFTERS
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
04:08Plumpton • 1m7f195y • Class 3
4 runners
Market Intelligence
Weakest support: Mojito des Mottes (-13.90 probability points)
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

Trainer: Ben Pauling
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is -13.90pp, placing it in this yard's 10pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 2/9 won (22.2%), compared with the yard's normal 18% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (9 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.
⬆ CLASS RISE
Market Form rating58/100 · Neutral
Last run29 days ago · 22 Aug 2026
Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
2 historical matches

2/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Mid
Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 20/1 | Avg: 12/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.
Best at SP (50%)
04:08Plumpton
Opened 15/8Market avg 11/4
5/2 ↑ 11/4 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2 ↑ 11/4 ↓ 5/2 ↑ 11/4 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2 ↑ 11/4
PRICE MOVE
-13.90pp (-67.5%)
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -26.2% • -7.16pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +6.74pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 6/4 @ 07:59
NR @ 07:59: 2/1 → 6/4 (+6.74pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -13.90pp
Move evidence
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Largest drift recorded across 4 previous runs.
BEST FIXED ODDS
11/4 3.75 decimal 10 Bet
MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 4 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 2/9 won (22.2%), compared with the yard's normal 18% strike rate. It is also stepping up from Class 4 to Class 3, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Mojito des Mottes has moved from 15/8 to 11/4, a significant drift (-13.90pp). Context verdict: despite the size of the move, the evidence is not strong enough to make this drift a serious concern because the trainer normally wins about 18 in every 100 runners and still wins about 22 in every 100 when they drift like this, so this weakness has not reduced the yard’s success and there is not enough comparable horse evidence to show that this degree of weakness harms its performance.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: -13.90pp
Possible next price: 3/1
4 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
LIMITED DATA — 1 SIMILAR RUNThis is one previous example only. It is an early clue, not a proven repeat pattern.
⚠️ Signal fading — move now below trigger

Trainer: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill
Jockey: Benjamin Macey(5)
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is -2.47pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating53/100 · Neutral
Last run15 days ago · 5 Sep 2026
Distance changeDown 1.1f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
1 qualifying historical matches

1/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: 2/1 → 14/1 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.
Early money horse (25%)
04:08Plumpton
Opened 8/1Market avg 8/1
8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1
PRICE MOVE
-2.47pp (-28.6%)
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -1.8% • -0.19pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +2.28pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 15/2 @ 07:59
NR @ 07:59: 10/1 → 15/2 (+2.28pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -2.47pp
Move evidence
25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
3 of 4 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 1st at Market Rasen on 15 Aug 2026 (-7.62pp); finished 2nd at Newton Abbot on 06 May 2026 (-3.92pp); and finished 2nd at Market Rasen on 05 Apr 2026 (-10.91pp).
Limited data: 1 similar run only.
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/1 10 decimal William Hill
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Gower Prince is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Limited data: one similar run only.
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: -2.47pp
Possible next price: 8/1
4 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
Zillow

Trainer: Faye Bramley
Jockey: Harry Kimber
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.29pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating45/100 · Neutral
Last run22 days ago · 29 Aug 2026
Distance changeDown 1.3f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
1 historical matches

0/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.
Early money horse (29%)
04:08Plumpton
Opened 33/1Market avg 28/1
28/1 → 28/1 ↓ 22/1 ↑ 28/1 → 28/1 ↓ 25/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 22/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 28/1
PRICE MOVE
-0.29pp (-11.7%)
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +18.4% • +0.63pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.92pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 28/1 @ 07:59
NR @ 07:59: 40/1 → 28/1 (+0.92pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -0.29pp
Move evidence
14th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
6 of 7 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 10th at Cartmel on 29 Aug 2026 (-2.40pp); had no recorded finishing position at Uttoxeter on 26 Jul 2026 (-1.31pp); finished 7th at Cartmel on 28 Jun 2026 (-6.55pp); finished 15th at Fairyhouse (IRE) on 04 Apr 2026 (-0.92pp); finished 18th at Cheltenham on 13 Mar 2026 (-2.35pp); and had no recorded finishing position at Leopardstown (IRE) on 01 Feb 2026 (-3.44pp).
BEST FIXED ODDS
33/1 34 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

6 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Zillow is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.
Today: -0.29pp
Possible next price: 33/1
7 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
Edelak
NON-RUNNERNR @ 07:59
ACTIONABLE RACE READVISIBLE DRIFT — BUT NO ACTIONABLE NEGATIVE

Mojito des Mottes is the only notable weakness, but the drift is unusual for this horse but is not fully corroborated elsewhere. Actionable read: do not oppose Mojito des Mottes from the drift alone.

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