LIVE MARKET PRESSURE ⓘ
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01 · Strongest support
Arcturus Flame
73
02:38 Plumpton
+11.60pp
True move after NR adjustment · 9/4 → 4/9
02 · Repeat evidence
Arcturus Flame
73
02:38 Plumpton
Signal active
Today’s market has matched a previous successful movement pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Favourites currently holding
No short-priced upcoming runner has weakened by at least 2 probability points.
LIVE MARKET TERMINAL: MARKET FORM ACTIVE

HOW TO READ THE LIVE MARKET

Work through the terminal in this order. Start with market weakness, then demand positive historical evidence before treating support as significant. The strongest case is where the horse and trainer evidence agree.

01MARKET WEAKNESSFind weak favourites
02HORSE EVIDENCEFind a positive market profile
03SUPPORT LEVELCheck historical trigger points
04TRAINER CONTEXTMatch support to an increased strike rate
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Hamilton 🔒Listowel 🔒Plumpton ✓
ALLBACKED 💰DRIFTERS
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
02:38Plumpton • 1m7f195y • Class 4
5 runners
Market Intelligence
Strongest support: Sangara (+0.88 probability points)
🟢 Needs Support (27%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.
REPEAT WINNER SIGNAL
TURF PROFILE
Triggered at 07:54
Now 31.5% bigger than the trigger move

This horse has previously delivered under similar market conditions, but the live terminal is live and the move may have faded out - confirmed signals are on the 10am and 1pm page.
⚠️ Signal fading — move now below trigger

Trainer: James Owen
Jockey: Jonathan Burke
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +11.60pp, placing it in this yard's 10pp+ band.
At 10pp+: Open→1PM 37/94 won (39.4%); Open→SP 38/92 won (41.3%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 60% (24/40).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating73/100 · Ranked #2 today
Last run22 days ago · 29 Aug 2026
Distance changeUp 1.9f from last run
Usually attracts bookmaker support
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
2 qualifying historical matches

2/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 11/10 → 15/8 | Avg: 6/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening in a way that has worked for this horse before. Check the sample size before relying on it.
Early money horse (43%)
02:38Plumpton
Opened 9/4Market avg 4/9
2/5 ↑ 1/2 ↓ 2/5 ↑ 4/9 → 4/9 → 4/9 ↑ 1/2 ↓ 2/5 ↑ 4/9 ↓ 2/5
PRICE MOVE
+11.60pp (+27.4%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +55.7% • +38.68pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +27.07pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 2/5 @ 10:39
NR @ 07:56: 6/4 → 8/13 (+22.92pp removed)
NR @ 10:39: 1/2 → 2/5 (+4.15pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +11.60pp
Move evidence
86th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 2nd at Yarmouth on 14 Aug 2026 (+15.99pp).
100% repeat place strike (2 qualifying runs)
Repeat pattern record: 2/2 placed • 0/2 won
When backed like this: 0/2 WON
BEST FIXED ODDS
1/2 1.5 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

James Owen runners in the matching 10pp+ band have won 38/92 (a 41.3% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 16.5% strike rate. Just 1 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Under comparable market conditions it has finished first or second in 2 of 2 runs, including 0 wins. Today’s move: Arcturus Flame has shortened from 9/4 to 4/9, which is strong support (+11.60pp). Context verdict: this support is meaningful to bettors because the trainer normally wins about 17 in every 100 runners, but wins about 41 in every 100 when backed like this.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Both previous top-two finishes came with support of 9.72pp+.
At 9.72pp+: 2/4 finished 1st or 2nd (50%).
Today: +11.60pp — trigger reached.
Gamble exhaustion: Some further shortening may remain, but the move is entering its exhaustion zone.
After a 10–12pp move: 44% shortened another 1pp • 37% another 2pp • 29% another 3pp • 18% another 5pp (n=1269)
Possible next price: 4/11
7 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.
Raulin

Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
Jockey: Caoilin Quinn
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +1.73pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 22/76 won (28.9%); Open→SP 19/79 won (24.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 37.9% (11/29).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating63/100 · Neutral
Last run27 days ago · 24 Aug 2026
Distance changeUp 4.4f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: 9/2 → 7/1 | Avg: 11/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (50%)
02:38Plumpton
Opened 9/2Market avg 15/8
15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 → 15/8 → 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 15/8
PRICE MOVE
+1.73pp (+8.7%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +47.2% • +16.24pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +14.52pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 2/1 @ 10:39
NR @ 07:56: 9/2 → 5/2 (+10.76pp removed)
NR @ 10:39: 5/2 → 2/1 (+3.76pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +1.73pp
Move evidence
83th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 6 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Pontefract on 08 Jun 2026 (+10.39pp).
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/4 3.25 decimal LiveScore Bet
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Raulin is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: +1.73pp
Possible next price: 2/1
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →

Trainer: Sheena West
Jockey: Marc Goldstein
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.88pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/7 won (14.3%); Open→SP 1/9 won (11.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 25% (1/4).
⬆ CLASS RISE
Market Form rating47/100 · Neutral
Last run19 days ago · 1 Sep 2026
Distance changeUp 5.9f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
Mid-market mover (33%)
02:38Plumpton
Opened 100/1Market avg 20/1
18/1 ↑ 20/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 20/1 → 20/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 22/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 20/1 → 20/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.88pp (+47.1%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +79.3% • +3.80pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +2.92pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 18/1 @ 10:39
NR @ 07:56: 66/1 → 25/1 (+2.32pp removed)
NR @ 10:39: 20/1 → 18/1 (+0.59pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.88pp
Move evidence
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest support recorded across 3 previous runs.
Built 13:55 → 14:05
BEST FIXED ODDS
25/1 26 decimal Unibet
MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 3 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. It is also stepping up from Class 6 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Sangara is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.
Today: +0.88pp
Possible next price: 22/1
3 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
Premier Tenor
NON-RUNNERNR @ 07:56
Padel Whacker
NON-RUNNERNR @ 10:39
ACTIONABLE RACE READONE RUNNER HAS THE CLEAREST POSITIVE CASE

Arcturus Flame leads the market because the trainer record improves materially and today’s support is unusual for this horse. Actionable read: the market-based preference is Arcturus Flame, subject to the form case and available price.

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