LIVE MARKET PRESSURE ⓘ
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01 · Strongest support
Siorai
57
02:08 Plumpton
+7.79pp
True move after NR adjustment · 6/5 → 10/11
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Galeforcechopper
44
02:08 Plumpton
-15.70pp
True move after NR adjustment · 13/8 → 7/2
LIVE MARKET TERMINAL: MARKET FORM ACTIVE

HOW TO READ THE LIVE MARKET

Work through the terminal in this order. Start with market weakness, then demand positive historical evidence before treating support as significant. The strongest case is where the horse and trainer evidence agree.

01MARKET WEAKNESSFind weak favourites
02HORSE EVIDENCEFind a positive market profile
03SUPPORT LEVELCheck historical trigger points
04TRAINER CONTEXTMatch support to an increased strike rate
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Hamilton 🔒Listowel 🔒Plumpton ✓
ALLBACKED 💰DRIFTERS
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
02:08Plumpton • 1m7f195y • Class 5
3 runners
Market Intelligence
Strongest support: Getarose (+6.88 probability points)
Weakest support: Galeforcechopper (-15.70 probability points)
🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.
Siorai

Trainer: Harry Derham
Jockey: Paul O'Brien
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +7.79pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 14/43 won (32.6%); Open→SP 13/41 won (31.7%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 36.4% (8/22).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating57/100 · Neutral
Last run109 days ago · 3 Jun 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Early
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 11/10 → 9/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
Mid-market mover (40%)
02:08Plumpton
Opened 6/5Market avg 10/11
8/11 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 → 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ EVS ↓ 5/6 → 5/6 → 5/6
PRICE MOVE
+7.79pp (+14.6%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest support recorded across 5 previous runs.
Raw Open → Now price change: 14.6% • +7.79 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
EVS 2 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

Harry Derham runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 14/43 (a 32.6% Open→1PM strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 19.5% strike rate. Across 5 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. Today’s move: Siorai has shortened from 6/5 to 10/11, which is support (+7.79pp). Context verdict: this support is meaningful to bettors because the trainer normally wins about 20 in every 100 runners, but wins about 33 in every 100 when backed like this.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This price often moves during the day, so keep checking it. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: +7.79pp
Possible next price: 5/6
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →

Trainer: Mrs C. Williams
Jockey: Adam Wedge
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +6.88pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/0 won (0%); Open→SP 0/0 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating58/100 · Neutral
Last run169 days ago · 4 Apr 2026
Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
Mid-market mover (40%)
02:08Plumpton
Opened 11/4Market avg 2/1
2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 → 2/1 → 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 → 2/1 → 2/1 ↓ 7/4
PRICE MOVE
+6.88pp (+20.5%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest support recorded across 5 previous runs.
Raw Open → Now price change: 20.5% • +6.88 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/4 3.13 decimal Unibet
MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 5 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. The trainer evidence is important here: At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/0 won (0%); Open→SP 0/0 won (0%). Today’s move: Getarose has shortened from 11/4 to 2/1, which is support (+6.88pp). Context verdict: the support is visible, but the evidence is not strong enough to materially improve the betting case because there is no reliable matching trainer record yet and the horse’s comparable record does not yet provide strong outcome confirmation.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This price often moves during the day, so keep checking it. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.
Today: +6.88pp
Possible next price: 13/8
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →

Trainer: David Brace
Jockey: Liam Harrison
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is -15.70pp, placing it in this yard's 15pp+ 10am drift comparison.
There are no recorded trainer runners in the matching 15pp+ 10am drift band.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (0 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.
⬇ CLASS DROP
Market Form rating44/100 · Negative
Last run16 days ago · 4 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
3 historical matches

1/3 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: 100/1 → 100/1 | Avg: 100/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.
Late money horse (67%)
02:08Plumpton
Opened 13/8Market avg 7/2
7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 7/2 → 7/2
PRICE MOVE
-15.70pp (-70.3%)
Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.
Move evidence
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Largest drift recorded across 3 previous runs.
When drifting like this: failed 2/3Historical Drift Profile

04 Sep 26 | Worcester | Open: 40/1 → Final: 100/1 | SP: 100/1 | Fin: 1
22 Jul 26 | Worcester | Open: 40/1 → Final: 100/1 | SP: 100/1 | Fin: 9
17 Jun 26 | Worcester | Open: 50/1 → Final: 100/1 | SP: 100/1 | Fin: 6
Raw Open → Now price change: 70.3% • -15.70 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
7/2 4.5 decimal 10 Bet
MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 3 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: There are no recorded trainer runners in the matching 15pp+ 10am drift band. Despite dropping from Class 4 to Class 5, the market is still weakening. Today’s move: Galeforcechopper has moved from 13/8 to 7/2, a significant drift (-15.70pp). Context verdict: despite the size of the move, the evidence is not strong enough to make this drift a serious concern because there is no reliable matching trainer sample and there is not enough comparable horse evidence to show that this degree of weakness harms its performance.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (strong)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
3 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.
Today: -15.70pp
Possible next price: 7/2
3 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
ACTIONABLE RACE READSUPPORT HOLDS MORE WEIGHT THAN THE DRIFT

Siorai is the race’s clearest positive because the trainer record improves materially and today’s support is unusual for this horse. Galeforcechopper is less concerning because the drift is unusual for this horse but is not fully corroborated elsewhere. Actionable read: the market-based preference is Siorai; Galeforcechopper should not be treated as an automatic negative.

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