LIVE MARKET PRESSURE ⓘ
Odds database updated: 13:48:23 • LIVE
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01 · Strongest support
Nap Hand
56
04:08 Plumpton
+13.28pp
True move after NR adjustment · 10/3 → 6/4
02 · Repeat evidence
Nap Hand
56
04:08 Plumpton
Signal active
Today’s market has matched a previous successful movement pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Galeforcechopper
44
02:08 Plumpton
-15.70pp
True move after NR adjustment · 13/8 → 7/2
LIVE MARKET TERMINAL: MARKET FORM ACTIVE

HOW TO READ THE LIVE MARKET

Work through the terminal in this order. Start with market weakness, then demand positive historical evidence before treating support as significant. The strongest case is where the horse and trainer evidence agree.

01MARKET WEAKNESSFind weak favourites
02HORSE EVIDENCEFind a positive market profile
03SUPPORT LEVELCheck historical trigger points
04TRAINER CONTEXTMatch support to an increased strike rate
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Hamilton 🔒Listowel 🔒Plumpton ✓
ALLBACKED 💰DRIFTERS
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
02:08Plumpton • 1m7f195y • Class 5
2 runners
Market Intelligence
Strongest support: Getarose (+6.88 probability points)
🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.
Siorai

Trainer: Harry Derham
Jockey: Paul O'Brien
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +7.79pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 14/43 won (32.6%); Open→SP 13/41 won (31.7%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 36.4% (8/22).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating57/100 · Neutral
Last run109 days ago · 3 Jun 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Early
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 11/10 → 9/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
Mid-market mover (40%)
02:08Plumpton
Opened 6/5Market avg 10/11
8/11 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 → 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ EVS ↓ 5/6 → 5/6 → 5/6
PRICE MOVE
+7.79pp (+14.6%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest support recorded across 5 previous runs.
Raw Open → Now price change: 14.6% • +7.79 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
EVS 2 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

Harry Derham runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 14/43 (a 32.6% Open→1PM strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 19.5% strike rate. Across 5 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. Today’s move: Siorai has shortened from 6/5 to 10/11, which is support (+7.79pp). Context verdict: this support is meaningful to bettors because the trainer normally wins about 20 in every 100 runners, but wins about 33 in every 100 when backed like this.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This price often moves during the day, so keep checking it. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: +7.79pp
Possible next price: 5/6
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →

Trainer: Mrs C. Williams
Jockey: Adam Wedge
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +6.88pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/0 won (0%); Open→SP 0/0 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating58/100 · Neutral
Last run169 days ago · 4 Apr 2026
Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
Mid-market mover (40%)
02:08Plumpton
Opened 11/4Market avg 2/1
2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 → 2/1 → 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 → 2/1 → 2/1 ↓ 7/4
PRICE MOVE
+6.88pp (+20.5%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest support recorded across 5 previous runs.
Raw Open → Now price change: 20.5% • +6.88 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/4 3.13 decimal Unibet
MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 5 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. The trainer evidence is important here: At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/0 won (0%); Open→SP 0/0 won (0%). Today’s move: Getarose has shortened from 11/4 to 2/1, which is support (+6.88pp). Context verdict: the support is visible, but the evidence is not strong enough to materially improve the betting case because there is no reliable matching trainer record yet and the horse’s comparable record does not yet provide strong outcome confirmation.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This price often moves during the day, so keep checking it. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.
Today: +6.88pp
Possible next price: 13/8
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
ACTIONABLE RACE READONE RUNNER HAS THE CLEAREST POSITIVE CASE

Siorai leads the market because the trainer record improves materially and today’s support is unusual for this horse. Actionable read: the market-based preference is Siorai, subject to the form case and available price.

02:38Plumpton • 1m7f195y • Class 4
4 runners
🟢 Needs Support (27%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.
REPEAT WINNER SIGNAL
TURF PROFILE
Triggered at 07:54
Now 31.4% bigger than the trigger move

This horse has previously delivered under similar market conditions, but the live terminal is live and the move may have faded out - confirmed signals are on the 10am and 1pm page.
⚠️ Signal fading — move now below trigger

Trainer: James Owen
Jockey: Jonathan Burke
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +11.65pp, placing it in this yard's 10pp+ band.
At 10pp+: Open→1PM 37/94 won (39.4%); Open→SP 38/92 won (41.3%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 60% (24/40).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating73/100 · Ranked #2 today
Last run22 days ago · 29 Aug 2026
Distance changeUp 1.9f from last run
Usually attracts bookmaker support
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
2 qualifying historical matches

2/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 11/10 → 15/8 | Avg: 6/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening in a way that has worked for this horse before. Check the sample size before relying on it.
Early money horse (43%)
02:38Plumpton
Opened 9/4Market avg 4/9
2/5 ↑ 1/2 ↓ 2/5 ↑ 4/9 → 4/9 → 4/9 ↑ 1/2 ↓ 2/5 → 2/5 → 2/5
PRICE MOVE
+11.65pp (+27.5%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +55.7% • +38.72pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +27.07pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 2/5 @ 10:39
NR @ 07:56: 6/4 → 8/13 (+22.92pp removed)
NR @ 10:39: 1/2 → 2/5 (+4.15pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +11.65pp
Move evidence
86th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 2nd at Yarmouth on 14 Aug 2026 (+15.99pp).
100% repeat place strike (2 qualifying runs)
Repeat pattern record: 2/2 placed • 0/2 won
When backed like this: 0/2 WON
BEST FIXED ODDS
1/2 1.5 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

James Owen runners in the matching 10pp+ band have won 38/92 (a 41.3% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 16.5% strike rate. Just 1 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Under comparable market conditions it has finished first or second in 2 of 2 runs, including 0 wins. Today’s move: Arcturus Flame has shortened from 9/4 to 4/9, which is strong support (+11.65pp). Context verdict: this support is meaningful to bettors because the trainer normally wins about 17 in every 100 runners, but wins about 41 in every 100 when backed like this.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Both previous top-two finishes came with support of 9.72pp+.
At 9.72pp+: 2/4 finished 1st or 2nd (50%).
Today: +11.65pp — trigger reached.
Gamble exhaustion: Some further shortening may remain, but the move is entering its exhaustion zone.
After a 10–12pp move: 44% shortened another 1pp • 37% another 2pp • 29% another 3pp • 18% another 5pp (n=1269)
Possible next price: 4/11
7 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.
Raulin

Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
Jockey: Caoilin Quinn
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +1.98pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 22/76 won (28.9%); Open→SP 19/79 won (24.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 37.9% (11/29).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating65/100 · Positive
Last run27 days ago · 24 Aug 2026
Distance changeUp 4.4f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: 9/2 → 7/1 | Avg: 11/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (50%)
02:38Plumpton
Opened 9/2Market avg 15/8
15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 → 15/8 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 15/8
PRICE MOVE
+1.98pp (+9.8%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +47.6% • +16.49pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +14.52pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 2/1 @ 10:39
NR @ 07:56: 9/2 → 5/2 (+10.76pp removed)
NR @ 10:39: 5/2 → 2/1 (+3.76pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +1.98pp
Move evidence
83th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 6 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Pontefract on 08 Jun 2026 (+10.39pp).
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/4 3.25 decimal LiveScore Bet
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Raulin is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: +1.98pp
Possible next price: 2/1
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →

Trainer: Sheena West
Jockey: Marc Goldstein
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.94pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/7 won (14.3%); Open→SP 1/9 won (11.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 25% (1/4).
⬆ CLASS RISE
Market Form rating47/100 · Neutral
Last run19 days ago · 1 Sep 2026
Distance changeUp 5.9f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
Mid-market mover (33%)
02:38Plumpton
Opened 100/1Market avg 20/1
18/1 ↑ 20/1 ↓ 18/1 → 18/1 ↑ 20/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 22/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 20/1 → 20/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.94pp (+48.7%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +79.6% • +3.85pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +2.92pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 18/1 @ 10:39
NR @ 07:56: 66/1 → 25/1 (+2.32pp removed)
NR @ 10:39: 20/1 → 18/1 (+0.59pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.94pp
Move evidence
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest support recorded across 3 previous runs.
Built 00:00 → 13:51
BEST FIXED ODDS
25/1 26 decimal Unibet
MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 3 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. It is also stepping up from Class 6 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Sangara is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.
Today: +0.94pp
Possible next price: 22/1
3 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
Padel Whacker
NON-RUNNERNR @ 10:39
ACTIONABLE RACE READONE RUNNER HAS THE CLEAREST POSITIVE CASE

Arcturus Flame leads the market because the trainer record improves materially and today’s support is unusual for this horse. Actionable read: the market-based preference is Arcturus Flame, subject to the form case and available price.

03:08Plumpton • 2m4f116y • Class 4
3 runners
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

Trainer: Nick Scholfield
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +2.99pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 13/43 won (30.2%); Open→SP 13/46 won (28.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 44.4% (8/18).
⬆ CLASS RISE
Market Form rating47/100 · Neutral
Last run15 days ago · 5 Sep 2026
Distance changeDown 2f from last run
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 5/2 → 11/2 | Avg: 7/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (20%)
03:08Plumpton
Opened EVSMarket avg 10/11
10/11 → 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ 10/11 → 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6
PRICE MOVE
+2.99pp (+5.6%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 5th at Market Rasen on 19 Jun 2026 (+8.24pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 5.7% • +2.99 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
EVS 2 decimal Virgin Bet
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Premier Fantasy is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Limited data: one similar run only.
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: +2.99pp
Possible next price: 5/6
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
LIMITED DATA — 1 SIMILAR RUNThis is one previous example only. It is an early clue, not a proven repeat pattern.
⚠️ Signal fading — move now below trigger

Trainer: Max Comley
Jockey: David Bass
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +2.49pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 3/13 won (23.1%); Open→SP 4/17 won (23.5%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 37.5% (3/8).
⬇ CLASS DROP
Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral
Last run164 days ago · 9 Apr 2026
Distance changeUp 3.6f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
1 qualifying historical matches

1/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 7/2 | Avg: 7/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
LAST MINUTE BACKING (16.7%)
Early money horse (33%)
03:08Plumpton
Opened 7/2Market avg 3/1
3/1 → 3/1 ↓ 11/4 → 11/4 ↑ 3/1 ↑ 10/3 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 11/4 ↑ 3/1 ↓ 11/4
PRICE MOVE
+2.49pp (+10.1%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 1 of 3 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 2nd at Ascot on 14 Feb 2026 (+4.62pp).
Limited data: 1 similar run only.
Raw Open → Now price change: 10.1% • +2.49 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
7/2 4.5 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 3 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 1 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: One Dimensional is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
3 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.
Today: +2.49pp
Possible next price: 9/4
3 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →

Trainer: Warren Greatrex
Jockey: James Bowen
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.16pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 5/33 won (15.2%); Open→SP 5/33 won (15.2%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 20% (3/15).
⬆ CLASS RISE
Market Form rating43/100 · Negative
Last run46 days ago · 5 Aug 2026
Distance changeUp 4.5f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Late money horse (33%)
03:08Plumpton
Opened 9/1Market avg 9/1
9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↑ 9/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.16pp (+1.6%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
2 of 6 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 6th at Yarmouth on 20 May 2026 (+3.33pp); and finished 4th at Goodwood on 01 May 2026 (+0.78pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 1.6% • +0.16 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
10/1 11 decimal SportingIndex
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Golden Garden is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.
Today: +0.16pp
Possible next price: 9/1
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
ACTIONABLE RACE READNO ACTIONABLE MARKET EDGE YET

The market is not offering a sufficiently strong, evidence-backed signal in this race. Actionable read: wait rather than force a market-led position.

03:38Plumpton • 3m217y • Class 5
2 runners
LIMITED DATA — 1 SIMILAR RUNThis is one previous example only. It is an early clue, not a proven repeat pattern.

Trainer: Max Comley
Jockey: David Bass
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +2.06pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 3/13 won (23.1%); Open→SP 4/17 won (23.5%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 37.5% (3/8).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating69/100 · Ranked #5 today
Last run10 days ago · 10 Sep 2026
Distance changeUp 2f from last run
Usually attracts bookmaker support
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
1 qualifying historical matches

1/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 9/4 → 9/4 | Avg: 9/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (40%)
03:38Plumpton
Opened 11/4Market avg 2/1
2/1 → 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 → 2/1 → 2/1 → 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 → 2/1
PRICE MOVE
+2.06pp (+7.2%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +20.2% • +6.77pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +4.70pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/4 @ 07:59
NR @ 07:59: 11/4 → 9/4 (+4.70pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +2.06pp
Move evidence
60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
2 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse had no recorded finishing position at Stratford on 25 Aug 2026 (+12.67pp); and had no recorded finishing position at Newton Abbot on 03 Jun 2026 (+6.62pp).
Limited data: 1 similar run only.
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/4 3.13 decimal Unibet
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: French Diablo is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
3 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.
Today: +2.06pp
Possible next price: 2/1
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →

Trainer: Alexandra Dunn
Jockey: Isabelle Ryder(5)
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.93pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 5/7 won (71.4%); Open→SP 5/7 won (71.4%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 75% (3/4).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating49/100 · Neutral
Last run52 days ago · 30 Jul 2026
Distance changeUp 13f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Early PM
Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 50/1 → 50/1 | Avg: 50/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Best at SP (43%)
03:38Plumpton
Opened 9/1Market avg 7/1
13/2 ↑ 7/1 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 15/2 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.93pp (+8.5%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +20.0% • +2.50pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +1.57pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 15/2 @ 07:59
NR @ 07:59: 9/1 → 15/2 (+1.57pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.93pp
Move evidence
86th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Lingfield on 27 Jun 2026 (+3.42pp).
BEST FIXED ODDS
15/2 8.5 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Stage Show is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
7 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.
Today: +0.93pp
Possible next price: 15/2
7 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
ACTIONABLE RACE READNO ACTIONABLE MARKET EDGE YET

The market is not offering a sufficiently strong, evidence-backed signal in this race. Actionable read: wait rather than force a market-led position.

04:08Plumpton • 1m7f195y • Class 3
2 runners
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
LIMITED DATA — 1 SIMILAR RUNThis is one previous example only. It is an early clue, not a proven repeat pattern.

Trainer: Chris Gordon
Jockey: Fern O'Brien(5)
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +13.28pp, placing it in this yard's 10pp+ band.
At 10pp+: Open→1PM 2/13 won (15.4%); Open→SP 1/9 won (11.1%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 14.3% (1/7).
⬇ CLASS DROP
Market Form rating56/100 · Neutral
Last run36 days ago · 15 Aug 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
1 qualifying historical matches

1/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Early
Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 5/1 → 9/1 | Avg: 7/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening, but similar moves have not converted well before.
Mid-market mover (43%)
04:08Plumpton
Opened 10/3Market avg 6/4
11/8 ↑ 6/4 ↓ 11/8 → 11/8 → 11/8 → 11/8 ↑ 6/4 ↓ 11/8 → 11/8 ↑ 6/4
PRICE MOVE
+13.28pp (+36.5%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +43.7% • +17.92pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +4.64pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 5/2 @ 07:59
NR @ 07:59: 10/3 → 5/2 (+4.64pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +13.28pp
Move evidence
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest support recorded across 7 previous runs.
Limited data: 1 similar run only.
When backed like this: 0/2 WON
BEST FIXED ODDS
6/4 2.5 decimal 10 Bet
MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 7 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 2 runs. The trainer evidence is important here: At 10pp+: Open→1PM 2/13 won (15.4%); Open→SP 1/9 won (11.1%). The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 2 to Class 3, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Nap Hand has shortened from 10/3 to 6/4, which is strong support (+13.28pp). Context verdict: the support is visible, but the evidence is not strong enough to materially improve the betting case because the trainer normally wins about 14 in every 100 runners and about 15 in every 100 when backed like this, which is not a big enough improvement to strengthen the bet materially and the horse’s comparable record does not yet provide strong outcome confirmation.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This price often moves during the day, so keep checking it. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
No positive support trigger.
This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.
Today: +13.28pp
Gamble exhaustion: Some further shortening may remain, but the move is entering its exhaustion zone.
After a 12–15pp move: 44% shortened another 1pp • 35% another 2pp • 29% another 3pp • 19% another 5pp (n=1117)
Possible next price: 13/8
7 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Plumpton. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
🟢 Needs Support (16%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.
REPEAT WINNER SIGNAL
TURF PROFILE
Triggered at 08:25
Now 22.8% bigger than the trigger move

This horse has previously delivered under similar market conditions, but the live terminal is live and the move may have faded out - confirmed signals are on the 10am and 1pm page.
⚠️ Signal fading — move now below trigger

Trainer: Tom Lacey
Jockey: Stan Sheppard
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +3.14pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 7/29 won (24.1%); Open→SP 8/30 won (26.7%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (6/15).
⬆ CLASS RISE
Market Form rating64/100 · Neutral
Last run36 days ago · 15 Aug 2026
Distance changeDown 0.7f from last run
Usually attracts bookmaker support
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
4 qualifying historical matches

4/4 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 1/2 → 11/10 | Avg: 8/11Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
Early money horse (60%)
04:08Plumpton
Opened 4/1Market avg 5/2
5/2 ↓ 9/4 → 9/4 ↑ 5/2 ↑ 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 ↓ 9/4 ↑ 5/2 → 5/2
PRICE MOVE
+3.14pp (+13.6%)
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +30.8% • +8.89pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +5.74pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 5/2 @ 07:59
NR @ 07:59: 10/3 → 5/2 (+5.74pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +3.14pp
Move evidence
20th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
4 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 2nd at Market Rasen on 15 Aug 2026 (+16.08pp); finished 1st at Uttoxeter on 07 Jul 2026 (+25.36pp); finished 2nd at Uttoxeter on 13 Jun 2026 (+5.45pp); and finished 1st at Huntingdon on 25 May 2026 (+21.68pp).
100% repeat place strike (4 qualifying runs)
Repeat pattern record: 4/4 placed • 2/4 won
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/2 3.5 decimal 10 Bet
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

4 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Under comparable market conditions it has finished first or second in 4 of 4 runs, including 2 wins. It is also stepping up from Class 4 to Class 3, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Eternal Angel is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
All 4 previous top-two finishes came with support of 7.61pp+.
At 7.61pp+: 4/4 finished 1st or 2nd (100%).
Today: +3.14pp — trigger not reached.
Possible next price: 5/2
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
ACTIONABLE RACE READSUPPORT IS VISIBLE — BUT NOT YET ACTIONABLE

Nap Hand leads the market because the move is unusual for this horse but lacks enough outcome or trainer confirmation. Actionable read: do not follow the shortening price without further confirmation.

04:38Plumpton • 2m4f116y • Class 5
3 runners

Trainer: Chris Gordon
Jockey: Freddie Gordon
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.54pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 3/33 won (9.1%); Open→SP 4/31 won (12.9%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 14.3% (1/7).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating49/100 · Neutral
Last run23 days ago · 28 Aug 2026
Distance changeUp 1.4f from last run
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Mid
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (20%)
04:38Plumpton
Opened 9/2Market avg 9/2
4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 9/2 → 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 9/2 → 9/2
PRICE MOVE
+0.54pp (+2.9%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 7th at Worcester on 01 Jul 2026 (+7.62pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 2.9% • +0.54 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/2 5.5 decimal 10 Bet
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Khalk'eau Spigao is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.
Today: +0.54pp
Possible next price: 5/1
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Plumpton. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →

Trainer: Sheena West
Jockey: Marc Goldstein
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +4.47pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/7 won (14.3%); Open→SP 1/9 won (11.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 25% (1/4).
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating46/100 · Neutral
Last run70 days ago · 12 Jul 2026
Distance changeUp 1.9f from last run
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 3/1 | Avg: 3/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
Early money horse (25%)
04:38Plumpton
Opened 8/1Market avg 11/2
11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 ↑ 6/1 → 6/1 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2
PRICE MOVE
+4.47pp (+28.7%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
2 of 8 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Plumpton on 16 Mar 2026 (+4.91pp); and finished 2nd at Plumpton on 09 Feb 2026 (+10.71pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 28.7% • +4.47 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
6/1 7 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

Sheena West runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 1/7 (a 14.3% Open→1PM strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 6.2% strike rate. Just 2 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: A Tickatickatiming has shortened from 8/1 to 11/2, which is support (+4.47pp). Context verdict: the support is visible, but the evidence is not strong enough to materially improve the betting case because the trainer’s matching backed record is based on only 7 runners and is not yet reliable enough and the horse’s comparable record does not yet provide strong outcome confirmation.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
7 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.
Today: +4.47pp
Possible next price: 5/1
8 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Course record
Previous course evidence shows 1 placed efforts from 4 runs at Plumpton. Compared with an average course SP of 5.1, today's price is 25% bigger than usual.
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →

Trainer: Cynthia Woods
Jockey: Freddie Mitchell(3)
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.43pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/0 won (0%); Open→SP 0/0 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
↔ SAME CLASS
Market Form rating45/100 · Neutral
Last run137 days ago · 6 May 2026
Distance changeDown 1.2f from last run
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
LAST MINUTE BACKING (17.1%)
Early money horse (40%)
04:38Plumpton
Opened 33/1Market avg 28/1
22/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 25/1 ↑ 33/1 ↑ 40/1 ↓ 25/1 ↑ 40/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 28/1 ↑ 33/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.43pp (+13.4%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 5th at Fontwell on 24 Apr 2026 (+3.44pp).
Raw Open → Now price change: 13.4% • +0.43 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
40/1 41 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Bread And Butter is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER
Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.
4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.
Today: +0.43pp
Possible next price: 40/1
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Plumpton. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
ACTIONABLE RACE READSUPPORT IS VISIBLE — BUT NOT YET ACTIONABLE

A Tickatickatiming leads the market because the move lacks a strong historical confirmation. Actionable read: do not follow the shortening price without further confirmation.

05:08Plumpton • 2m1f169y • Class 5
1 runners

Trainer: Max Comley
Jockey: David Bass
Horse & Trainer Evidence
Trainer market read
Today's move is +10.86pp, placing it in this yard's 10pp+ band.
At 10pp+: Open→1PM 3/8 won (37.5%); Open→SP 3/8 won (37.5%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 66.7% (2/3).
Market Form rating62/100 · Neutral
Runs: 0 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
LAST MINUTE BACKING (20%)
05:08Plumpton
Opened 15/2Market avg 7/2
7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 10/3 → 10/3 ↑ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 10/3 ↓ 3/1
PRICE MOVE
+10.86pp (+48.0%)
Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.
Move evidence
Raw Open → Now price change: 48% • +10.86 probability points
BEST FIXED ODDS
4/1 5 decimal Bet365
MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

Max Comley runners in the matching 10pp+ band have won 3/8 (a 37.5% Open→1PM strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 8.2% strike rate. There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Kap In Hand has shortened from 15/2 to 7/2, which is strong support (+10.86pp). Context verdict: the support is visible, but the evidence is not strong enough to materially improve the betting case because the trainer’s matching backed record is based on only 8 runners and is not yet reliable enough and the horse’s comparable record does not yet provide strong outcome confirmation.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
Gamble exhaustion: Moves of this size have usually been close to exhaustion; chasing the shortened price carries extra risk.
After a 10–12pp move: 35% shortened another 1pp • 23% another 2pp • 19% another 3pp • 11% another 5pp (n=1224)
Possible next price: 5/2
No historical data
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
OPEN RACECARD →
ACTIONABLE RACE READSUPPORT IS VISIBLE — BUT NOT YET ACTIONABLE

Kap In Hand leads the market because the move lacks a strong historical confirmation. Actionable read: do not follow the shortening price without further confirmation.

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