Live Horse Racing Market Movement

16:05Newcastle (AW) • 1m2f42y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

3 runners

Market Intelligence

Weakest support: We've Got This (-0.52 probability points)

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Koko BlueDraw 4

Trainer: Tom Clover

Jockey: Molly Keegan-Price(7)

🟢 Needs Support (27%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tom Clover (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 24/208; first seen between 10am and 1pm 21/208; first seen after 1pm 7/208.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.61pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run30 days ago · 2 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 13/8 → 10/1 | Avg: 6/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (40%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/8Market avg 6/4

11/8 ↑ 6/4 → 6/4 ↓ 11/8 → 11/8 ↑ 6/4 → 6/4 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 11/8 → 11/8

PRICE MOVE

-1.61pp (-4.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Brighton on 21 Jun 2026 (-3.33pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4% • -1.61 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Brighton, 21 Jun 2026 — 3rd • open 4/1 → final 9/2 (-1.82pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

15/8 2.88 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/8	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.61ppOpen → now	6/4Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.61pp
Newcastle (AW)02 Sep 20261m 2f 43y · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/4	+3.74ppOpen → 10am	9/4	+11.25pp10am → 1pm	11/8	+0.00pp1pm → SP	11/8	1st	+14.99pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)23 Jul 20261m 4f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	14/1	+3.86ppOpen → 10am	17/2	+0.58pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-1.11pp1pm → SP	9/1	2nd	+3.33pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/8	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.61ppOpen → now	6/4Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.61pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Koko Blue is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 02 Sep 2026 · 1st · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Both previous top-two finishes came with support of 2.42pp+.

At 2.42pp+: 2/3 finished 1st or 2nd (67%).

Today: -1.61pp — trigger not reached.

Possible next price: 5/4

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

We've Got ThisDraw 3

Trainer: Ivan Furtado

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ivan Furtado (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 40/416; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/416; first seen after 1pm 13/416.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.52pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 2.2f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (33%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 13/2Market avg 7/1

13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1 ↓ 13/2 → 13/2 ↑ 7/1 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 15/2 ↓ 13/2 → 13/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.52pp (-4.1%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 6 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Thirsk on 01 Jul 2026 (-2.43pp); finished 5th at Redcar on 18 May 2026 (-2.78pp); and finished 6th at Pontefract on 29 Apr 2026 (-6.84pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.1% • -0.52 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Pontefract, 29 Apr 2026 — 6th • open 7/2 → final 11/2 (-6.84pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

15/2 8.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: We've Got This is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.52pp

Possible next price: 6/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Dinah MyteDraw 2

Trainer: John Gallagher

Jockey: William Pyle

🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer John Gallagher (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 14/102; first seen between 10am and 1pm 7/102; first seen after 1pm 3/102.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/12; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/12; first seen after 1pm 1/12.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.34pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run17 days ago · 15 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 3.8f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 12 | Fixed-odds range: 11/2 → 50/1 | Avg: 22/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Mid-market mover (25%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 15/2Market avg 15/2

8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 → 15/2 ↑ 8/1 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 8/1 ↓ 15/2 → 15/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.34pp (-2.9%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

9 of 12 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 15 Sep 2026 (-2.23pp); finished 1st at Leicester on 08 Sep 2026 (-5.84pp); finished 6th at Lingfield (AW) on 11 Aug 2026 (-0.95pp); finished 3rd at Yarmouth on 28 Jul 2026 (-9.76pp); finished 2nd at Nottingham on 04 Jul 2026 (-4.81pp); finished 1st at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Jun 2026 (-2.82pp); finished 7th at Beverley on 23 Apr 2026 (-3.85pp); finished 9th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 09 Apr 2026 (-2.04pp); and finished 7th at Southwell (AW) on 21 Mar 2026 (-4.75pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.9% • -0.34 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Yarmouth, 28 Jul 2026 — 3rd • open 10/3 → final 7/1 (-10.59pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

8/1 9 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.34ppOpen → now	15/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.34pp
Leicester08 Sep 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	-5.84ppOpen → 10am	8/1	+3.17pp10am → 1pm	6/1	+1.10pp1pm → SP	11/2	1st	-1.56pp
Post-race comment
Nottingham04 Jul 20261m 2f 50y · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	-4.81ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+1.40pp10am → 1pm	10/1	+3.41pp1pm → SP	7/1	2nd	+0.00pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)02 Jun 20261m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	14/1	-2.82ppOpen → 10am	25/1	-0.40pp10am → 1pm	28/1	-1.01pp1pm → SP	40/1	1st	-4.23pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.34ppOpen → now	15/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.34pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

9 of 12 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Dinah Myte is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 02 Jun 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 2f 42y · previous 1m 5y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Ffos Las, 28 Aug 2026 — 6th • open 11/2 → 1pm 15/8 → final 2/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.34pp

Possible next price: 7/1

12 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 10 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

16:40Newcastle (AW) • 1m2f42y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

4 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

KameelDraw 9

Trainer: Jessica Macey

Jockey: Oliver Stammers

🟢 Needs Support (8%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jessica Macey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 13/148; first seen between 10am and 1pm 6/148; first seen after 1pm 8/148.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.75pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run16 days ago · 16 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.7f from last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 15/2 → 8/1 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (50%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/2Market avg 5/2

11/4 ↓ 5/2 ↑ 11/4 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 ↑ 3/1 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.75pp (-2.7%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

90th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE90th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 10 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 9th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 06 Apr 2026 (-10.91pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.7% • -0.75 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 06 Apr 2026 — 9th • open 4/1 → final 10/1 (-10.91pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

3/1 4 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.75ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.75pp
Beverley16 Sep 20261m 100y · Class 6 · Good · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/1	+0.32ppOpen → 10am	17/2	-2.19pp10am → 1pm	11/1	+4.17pp1pm → SP	7/1	2nd	+2.30pp
Post-race comment
Redcar25 May 20261m 2f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	17/2	+1.24ppOpen → 10am	15/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	15/2	+1.57pp1pm → SP	13/2	2nd	+2.81pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.75ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.75pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 10 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Kameel is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 25 May 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Both previous top-two finishes came with support of 0.9pp+.

At 0.9pp+: 2/8 finished 1st or 2nd (25%).

Today: -0.75pp — trigger not reached.

Possible next price: 5/2

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Newcastle (AW) is limited (2 runs without making the frame). Today's market is 66% shorter than usual against an average course SP profile of 10.5.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Bergamo GoldDraw 10

Trainer: Charlie Johnston

Jockey: Jack Callan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Charlie Johnston (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 71/702; first seen between 10am and 1pm 46/702; first seen after 1pm 25/702.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/11; first seen after 1pm 1/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.04pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run46 days ago · 17 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: EVS → 10/1 | Avg: 6/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (36%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/2Market avg 5/1

5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2

PRICE MOVE

-1.04pp (-6.1%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

36th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE36th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

7 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Leicester on 14 Jul 2026 (-1.40pp); finished 8th at Redcar on 18 May 2026 (-5.24pp); finished 9th at Lingfield (AW) on 30 Apr 2026 (-3.17pp); finished 3rd at Wolverhampton (AW) on 30 Mar 2026 (-14.72pp); finished 1st at Lingfield (AW) on 05 Mar 2026 (-7.94pp); finished 2nd at Chelmsford (AW) on 08 Feb 2026 (-4.17pp); and finished 5th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 03 Feb 2026 (-2.22pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.1% • -1.04 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 03 Feb 2026 — 5th • open 7/2 → final 16/1 (-16.34pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.04ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.04pp
Lingfield (AW)14 Apr 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+2.22pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-4.04pp1pm → SP	9/2	2nd	+1.52pp
Post-race comment
Wolverhampton (AW)13 Mar 20261m 1f 104y · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/8	+14.33ppOpen → 10am	10/11	-2.36pp10am → 1pm	EVS	+7.80pp1pm → SP	8/11	1st	+19.78pp
Post-race comment
Lingfield (AW)05 Mar 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/2	-7.94ppOpen → 10am	6/1	-0.95pp10am → 1pm	13/2	-2.81pp1pm → SP	17/2	1st	-11.70pp
Post-race comment
Chelmsford (AW)08 Feb 20261m · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	-4.17ppOpen → 10am	7/1	-1.97pp10am → 1pm	17/2	-2.19pp1pm → SP	11/1	2nd	-8.33pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.04ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.04pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

7 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Bergamo Gold is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Lingfield (AW) · 14 Apr 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Lingfield (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -1.04pp

Possible next price: 4/1

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

He's Our CrackerDraw 1

Trainer: Jennie Candlish

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jennie Candlish (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 48/403; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/403; first seen after 1pm 16/403.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 2/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.15pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run79 days ago · 15 Jul 2026

Distance changeDown 1.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

1 historical matches

0/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: 10am

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 8/1 → 8/1 | Avg: 8/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 13/2Market avg 7/1

15/2 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 15/2 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1

PRICE MOVE

-1.15pp (-9.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

63th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE63rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Catterick on 15 Jul 2026 (-1.52pp); finished 8th at Newcastle (AW) on 26 Jun 2026 (-3.99pp); and finished 12th at Leicester on 25 Apr 2026 (-1.82pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 9.4% • -1.15 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Catterick, 15 Jul 2026 — 4th • open 9/2 → final 13/2 (-4.85pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

17/2 9.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.15ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.15pp
Chelmsford (AW)12 Mar 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	5/1	-4.90pp10am → 1pm	15/2	+0.74pp1pm → SP	7/1	1st	-0.83pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.15ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.15pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 3 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: He's Our Cracker is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Chelmsford (AW) · 12 Mar 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Chelmsford (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -1.15pp

Possible next price: 7/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
No placed efforts from 2 previous runs at Newcastle (AW). The current market is 20% shorter than usual compared with a typical course SP of 10.3.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Hill O RueDraw 4

Trainer: Kevin Ryan

Jockey: Tom Eaves

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Kevin Ryan (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 42/440; first seen between 10am and 1pm 31/440; first seen after 1pm 9/440.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.52pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (40%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 12/1

12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.52pp (-6.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 6th at Pontefract on 17 Sep 2026 (-1.87pp); and finished 9th at Redcar on 20 Apr 2026 (-15.00pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.6% • -0.52 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Redcar, 20 Apr 2026 — 9th • open 3/1 → final 12/1 (-17.31pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Hill O Rue is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.52pp

Possible next price: 10/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 10 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

17:15Newcastle (AW) • 7f14y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

4 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Son of A FishDraw 4

Trainer: Richard Hannon

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard Hannon (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 94/764; first seen between 10am and 1pm 47/764; first seen after 1pm 34/764.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.82pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run9 days ago · 23 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 11/4 → 11/4 | Avg: 11/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Late money horse (40%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/2Market avg 5/2

11/4 ↓ 5/2 ↑ 11/4 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 ↓ 5/2 ↑ 10/3 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.82pp (-2.9%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Windsor on 24 Aug 2026 (-1.28pp); and finished 5th at Lingfield (AW) on 06 Jul 2026 (-3.07pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.9% • -0.82 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Redcar, 23 Sep 2026 — 2nd • open 2/1 → final 11/4 (-6.67pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/3 4.33 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.82ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.82pp
Redcar23 Sep 20267f 219y · Class 6 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	2/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	2/1	-6.67pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-4.44pp1pm → SP	7/2	2nd	-11.11pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.82ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.82pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Son of A Fish is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 23 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 7f 219y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.82pp

Possible next price: 5/2

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

OnslaughtDraw 6

Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey

Jockey: Billy Garritty

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 76/608; first seen between 10am and 1pm 28/608; first seen after 1pm 15/608.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.67pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run9 days ago · 23 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (17%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 5/1

11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.67pp (-4.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 6 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 5th at Carlisle on 11 Aug 2026 (-3.33pp); finished 3rd at Pontefract on 26 Jul 2026 (-5.56pp); finished 3rd at Hamilton on 11 Jul 2026 (-1.90pp); and finished 6th at Pontefract on 21 Jun 2026 (-9.47pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.2% • -0.67 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Pontefract, 21 Jun 2026 — 6th • open 4/1 → final 11/1 (-11.67pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

13/2 7.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.67ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.67pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.67ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.67pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

4 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Onslaught is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Redcar, 23 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 16/1 → 1pm 13/2 → final 15/2

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.67pp

Possible next price: 5/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Claret TimeDraw 2

Trainer: Nigel Tinkler

Jockey: Alex Jary(3)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Nigel Tinkler (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 30/325; first seen between 10am and 1pm 13/325; first seen after 1pm 11/325.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.80pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run18 days ago · 14 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Early PM

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 15/2 → 15/2 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (20%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 11/2

5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.80pp (-5.1%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Thirsk on 14 Sep 2026 (-5.45pp); finished 2nd at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Sep 2026 (-0.87pp); finished 8th at Doncaster on 18 Jul 2026 (-3.77pp); finished 7th at Thirsk on 01 Jul 2026 (-1.53pp); and finished 5th at Redcar on 20 Jun 2026 (-1.71pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.1% • -0.80 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Thirsk, 14 Sep 2026 — 4th • open 4/1 → final 6/1 (-6.55pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.80ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.80pp
Newcastle (AW)02 Sep 20266f 1y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	8/1	-0.87ppOpen → 10am	9/1	+2.50pp10am → 1pm	7/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	7/1	2nd	+1.63pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.80ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.80pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Claret Time is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 02 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 6f 1y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.80pp

Possible next price: 9/2

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Waiting For ArchieDraw 9

Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey

Jockey: Barry McHugh

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 76/608; first seen between 10am and 1pm 28/608; first seen after 1pm 15/608.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.05pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run14 days ago · 18 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (20%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 12/1Market avg 12/1

12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.05pp (-0.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Leicester on 08 Jun 2026 (-0.58pp); and finished 5th at Thirsk on 02 May 2026 (-9.85pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.6% • -0.05 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Thirsk, 02 May 2026 — 5th • open 9/2 → final 16/1 (-12.30pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	12/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.05ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.05pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	12/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.05ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.05pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Waiting For Archie is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.05pp

Possible next price: 12/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 10 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

17:45Newcastle (AW) • 1m5y • Class 4 • Going: Standard

3 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

NoozhaaDraw 1

Trainer: Roger Varian

Jockey: Jack Mitchell

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Roger Varian (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 74/323; first seen between 10am and 1pm 24/323; first seen after 1pm 18/323.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -2.10pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1f from last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 7/2 | Avg: 7/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

17:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 10/11Market avg EVS

EVS ↓ 10/11 ↑ EVS ↓ 10/11 ↑ EVS → EVS ↑ 11/10 → 11/10 ↓ 10/11 ↑ EVS

PRICE MOVE

-2.10pp (-4.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.2% • -2.10 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous open-to-final drift in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/10 2.1 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	10/11	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-2.10ppOpen → now	EVSCurrent; SP pending	Pending	-2.10pp
Kempton (AW)09 Sep 20267f · Class 4 · Standard / Slow · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+5.39ppOpen → 10am	3/1	-1.91pp10am → 1pm	10/3	-3.09pp1pm → SP	4/1	2nd	+0.39pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	10/11	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-2.10ppOpen → now	EVSCurrent; SP pending	Pending	-2.10pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Noozhaa is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Kempton (AW) · 09 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Kempton (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 5y · previous 7f×Ground: Today Standard · previous Standard / Slow✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -2.10pp

Possible next price: EVS

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Star MirageDraw 2

Trainer: Hamad Al Jehani

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Hamad Al Jehani (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 17/103; first seen between 10am and 1pm 8/103; first seen after 1pm 3/103.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.69pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run28 days ago · 4 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 3/1 | Avg: 3/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (33%)

17:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 7/2Market avg 7/2

7/2 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.69pp (-3.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 3 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 2nd at Kempton (AW) on 04 Sep 2026 (-0.71pp); and finished 7th at Kempton (AW) on 26 Aug 2026 (-0.76pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.2% • -0.69 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Kempton (AW), 26 Aug 2026 — 7th • open 10/1 → final 11/1 (-0.76pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/2 5.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	7/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.69ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.69pp
Kempton (AW)04 Sep 20261m · Class 3 · Standard / Slow · 4 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/3	-0.71ppOpen → 10am	10/3	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	10/3	+1.91pp1pm → SP	3/1	2nd	+1.19pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	7/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.69ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.69pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

2 of 3 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 3 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Star Mirage is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Kempton (AW) · 04 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Kempton (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Standard / Slow×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.69pp

Possible next price: 7/2

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Walk In ProvenceDraw 3

Trainer: Charlie Johnston

Jockey: Connor Beasley

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Charlie Johnston (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 71/702; first seen between 10am and 1pm 46/702; first seen after 1pm 25/702.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.48pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: 17/2 → 17/2 | Avg: 17/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

17:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 12/1

11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.48pp (-6.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.2% • -0.48 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous open-to-final drift in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.48ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.48pp
Redcar09 Sep 20267f 219y · Class 4 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	+4.24ppOpen → 10am	13/2	-3.33pp10am → 1pm	9/1	+0.53pp1pm → SP	17/2	2nd	+1.44pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.48ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.48pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Walk In Provence is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 09 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.48pp

Possible next price: 10/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 6 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 6 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

18:45Newcastle (AW) • 7f14y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

8 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Cable BeachDraw 11

Trainer: Tom Tate

Jockey: Andrew Elliott

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tom Tate (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 7/26; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/26; first seen after 1pm 1/26.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

Most often first apparent by 10am in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.72pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run36 days ago · 27 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 11/4 → 11/4 | Avg: 11/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (60%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 11/2

11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.72pp (-4.5%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Jun 2026 (-13.24pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.5% • -0.72 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 02 Jun 2026 — 7th • open 3/1 → final 7/1 (-12.50pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.72ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.72pp
Southwell (AW)27 Aug 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+10.54ppOpen → 10am	11/4	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-1.67pp1pm → SP	3/1	2nd	+8.87pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.72ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.72pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Cable Beach is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 27 Aug 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.72pp

Possible next price: 9/2

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
No placed efforts from 3 previous runs at Newcastle (AW). The current market is 18% shorter than usual compared with a typical course SP of 7.7.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Spartan FighterDraw 6

Trainer: Antony Brittain

Jockey: Cam Hardie

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Antony Brittain (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 12/206; first seen between 10am and 1pm 9/206; first seen after 1pm 6/206.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.07pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 9/4 → 80/1 | Avg: 16/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 13/2Market avg 13/2

13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.07pp (-0.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

63th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE63rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Newcastle (AW) on 06 Mar 2026 (-4.12pp); finished 2nd at Newcastle (AW) on 04 Feb 2026 (-3.03pp); and finished 1st at Newcastle (AW) on 10 Jan 2026 (-3.57pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.6% • -0.07 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 04 Feb 2026 — 2nd • open 7/4 → final 5/1 (-19.70pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/1 8 decimal Hollywood Bets

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.07ppOpen → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.07pp
Newcastle (AW)05 Sep 20267f 14y · Class 5 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	100/1	+0.97ppOpen → 10am	50/1	-0.47pp10am → 1pm	66/1	-0.26pp1pm → SP	80/1	1st	+0.24pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)10 Feb 20266f · Class 5 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/1	+1.10ppOpen → 10am	11/2	+6.84pp10am → 1pm	7/2	+0.00pp1pm → SP	7/2	1st	+7.94pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)04 Feb 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/4	-3.03ppOpen → 10am	2/1	-13.33pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-7.50pp1pm → SP	7/1	2nd	-23.86pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)20 Jan 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/4	+2.75ppOpen → 10am	5/2	-4.41pp10am → 1pm	3/1	+3.57pp1pm → SP	5/2	1st	+1.90pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)10 Jan 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/2	-3.57ppOpen → 10am	3/1	-1.91pp10am → 1pm	10/3	+5.48pp1pm → SP	5/2	1st	+0.00pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)01 Jan 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/2	+1.82ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+8.57pp10am → 1pm	5/2	+3.48pp1pm → SP	2/1	1st	+13.87pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.07ppOpen → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.07pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 3 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Spartan Fighter is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 05 Sep 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard×Class: Today Class 6 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.07pp

Possible next price: 13/2

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course record of 6/8 at Newcastle (AW). The average SP at this course is 17.1 and today's market has the horse trading 56% shorter than usual.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

PalmarianDraw 5

Trainer: Ruth Carr

Jockey: James Sullivan

🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ruth Carr (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 60/444; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/444; first seen after 1pm 16/444.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/12; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/12; first seen after 1pm 0/12.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.49pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 12 | Fixed-odds range: 6/1 → 7/1 | Avg: 13/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (25%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 15/2Market avg 8/1

8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.49pp (-4.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 12 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 10th at Hamilton on 02 Sep 2026 (-0.66pp); finished 8th at Doncaster on 23 Jul 2026 (-2.78pp); finished 5th at Redcar on 07 May 2026 (-1.49pp); and finished 7th at Southwell (AW) on 02 Apr 2026 (-4.71pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.4% • -0.49 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Southwell (AW), 02 Apr 2026 — 7th • open 14/1 → final 66/1 (-5.17pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

8/1 9 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.49ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.49pp
Doncaster18 Jul 20267f 213y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	4/1	-4.62pp10am → 1pm	11/2	-7.05pp1pm → SP	11/1	2nd	-8.33pp
Post-race comment
Leicester04 Jul 20261m 53y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/2	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	11/2	-1.10pp10am → 1pm	6/1	-0.95pp1pm → SP	13/2	1st	-2.05pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.49ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.49pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 4 of 12 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Palmarian is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Doncaster · 18 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Doncaster×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 7f 213y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.49pp

Possible next price: 8/1

12 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Why BecauseDraw 1

Trainer: Paul Midgley

Jockey: Oisin McSweeney

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Paul Midgley (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 31/243; first seen between 10am and 1pm 14/243; first seen after 1pm 7/243.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.25pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run18 days ago · 14 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (50%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 8/1Market avg 8/1

17/2 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 → 8/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.25pp (-2.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

6 of 6 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Thirsk on 14 Sep 2026 (-0.76pp); finished 5th at Carlisle on 19 Aug 2026 (-2.80pp); finished 5th at Newcastle (AW) on 31 Jul 2026 (-1.11pp); finished 7th at Doncaster on 03 Jul 2026 (-0.62pp); finished 4th at Catterick on 21 May 2026 (-0.92pp); and finished 6th at Redcar on 30 Apr 2026 (-6.59pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.3% • -0.25 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Redcar, 30 Apr 2026 — 6th • open 6/1 → final 14/1 (-7.62pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/1 10 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.25ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.25pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.25ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.25pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

6 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Why Because is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.25pp

Possible next price: 8/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Age of BaroqueDraw 4

Trainer: Jessica Macey

Jockey: Oliver Stammers

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jessica Macey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 13/148; first seen between 10am and 1pm 6/148; first seen after 1pm 8/148.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.28pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 11/1 → 11/1 | Avg: 11/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 8/1Market avg 8/1

17/2 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.28pp (-2.5%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Doncaster on 15 Aug 2026 (-0.91pp); finished 5th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 18 May 2026 (-3.21pp); finished 4th at Southwell (AW) on 25 Apr 2026 (-0.91pp); finished 9th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 20 Mar 2026 (-5.56pp); and finished 8th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 17 Feb 2026 (-10.89pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.5% • -0.28 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 20 Mar 2026 — 9th • open 5/1 → final 12/1 (-8.97pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/1 12 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.28ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.28pp
Doncaster06 Jun 20267f 6y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	14/1	+3.86ppOpen → 10am	17/2	-2.19pp10am → 1pm	11/1	+0.76pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	+2.42pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.28ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.28pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Age of Baroque is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Doncaster · 06 Jun 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Doncaster✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.28pp

Possible next price: 8/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Just Queen HighDraw 13

Trainer: Ian Williams

Jockey: Jack Callan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ian Williams (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 66/593; first seen between 10am and 1pm 45/593; first seen after 1pm 21/593.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.02pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run30 days ago · 2 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Best at SP (60%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 9/1

9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.02pp (-0.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Kempton (AW) on 02 Sep 2026 (-1.12pp); finished 9th at Epsom on 01 Jul 2026 (-2.80pp); finished 10th at Pontefract on 08 Jun 2026 (-3.34pp); finished 9th at Leicester on 13 Apr 2026 (-4.44pp); and finished 14th at Doncaster on 29 Mar 2026 (-8.15pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.2% • -0.02 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Doncaster, 29 Mar 2026 — 14th • open 7/1 → final 28/1 (-9.05pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/1 11 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.02ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.02pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.02ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.02pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Just Queen High is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.02pp

Possible next price: 9/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

SurprisedDraw 9

Trainer: Bryan Smart

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Bryan Smart (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 16/139; first seen between 10am and 1pm 10/139; first seen after 1pm 4/139.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.03pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run18 days ago · 14 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (50%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 12/1Market avg 12/1

12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.03pp (-0.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

6 of 6 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 10th at Thirsk on 14 Sep 2026 (-5.15pp); finished 7th at Southwell (AW) on 05 Jul 2026 (-1.40pp); finished 8th at Carlisle on 08 Jun 2026 (-6.42pp); finished 3rd at Carlisle on 18 May 2026 (-3.73pp); finished 6th at Catterick on 11 May 2026 (-2.82pp); and finished 10th at Beverley on 23 Apr 2026 (-4.24pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.3% • -0.03 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Thirsk, 14 Sep 2026 — 10th • open 17/2 → final 28/1 (-6.97pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	12/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.03ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.03pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	12/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.03ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.03pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

6 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Surprised is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.03pp

Possible next price: 12/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

SadiikiDraw 2

Trainer: Fred Watson

Jockey: Rhys Elliott(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Fred Watson (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.02pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run29 days ago · 3 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 80/1Market avg 80/1

80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1 ↓ 66/1 ↑ 80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.02pp (-1.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 1.4% • -0.02 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 03 Sep 2026 — 7th • open 4/1 → final 66/1 (-19.34pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 101 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	80/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.02ppOpen → now	80/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.02pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	80/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.02ppOpen → now	80/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.02pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Sadiiki is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.02pp

Possible next price: 80/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 13 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 13 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

19:15Newcastle (AW) • 7f14y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

8 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Soul WarriorDraw 3

Trainer: Nigel Tinkler

Jockey: Alex Jary(3)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Nigel Tinkler (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 30/325; first seen between 10am and 1pm 13/325; first seen after 1pm 11/325.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.76pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run9 days ago · 23 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 8/1 → 8/1 | Avg: 8/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (25%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 10/3Market avg 7/2

10/3 ↑ 7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3

PRICE MOVE

-0.76pp (-3.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

63th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE63rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 8th at Thirsk on 07 Aug 2026 (-1.97pp); finished 5th at Ayr on 20 Jul 2026 (-8.72pp); and finished 8th at Newcastle (AW) on 21 Mar 2026 (-4.04pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.4% • -0.76 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ayr, 20 Jul 2026 — 5th • open 11/2 → final 18/1 (-10.12pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

4/1 5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	10/3	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.76ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.76pp
Redcar23 Sep 20267f · Class 6 · Good · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	13/2	-2.22pp10am → 1pm	8/1	+0.65pp1pm → SP	15/2	1st	-1.57pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	10/3	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.76ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.76pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 3 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Soul Warrior is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 23 Sep 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Redcar, 09 Sep 2026 — 7th • open 18/1 → 10am 17/2 → final 11/1
Doncaster, 14 Jun 2026 — 10th • open 20/1 → 10am 17/2 → final 18/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.76pp

Possible next price: 10/3

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

LanarraDraw 9

Trainer: R. Mike Smith

Jockey: James Sullivan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer R. Mike Smith (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/17; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/17; first seen after 1pm 0/17.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.95pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run24 days ago · 8 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 33/1 | Avg: 18/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (71%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/2Market avg 5/1

9/2 ↑ 5/1 → 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.95pp (-5.5%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

71th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE71st HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 7 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Ayr on 20 Jul 2026 (-7.05pp); and finished 2nd at Catterick on 21 May 2026 (-8.32pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.5% • -0.95 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ayr, 20 Jul 2026 — 4th • open 11/2 → final 16/1 (-9.50pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.95ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.95pp
Catterick26 Aug 20267f 6y · Class 6 · Good · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	17/2	+9.36ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	4/1	+2.22pp1pm → SP	7/2	1st	+11.58pp
Post-race comment
Catterick21 May 20265f 212y · Class 6 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/2	-8.32ppOpen → 10am	28/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	28/1	-0.51pp1pm → SP	33/1	2nd	-8.82pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.95ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.95pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Lanarra is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Catterick · 26 Aug 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Catterick✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.95pp

Possible next price: 4/1

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Trucial PearlDraw 14

Trainer: Michael & David Easterby

Jockey: Joanna Mason

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Michael & David Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 54/498; first seen between 10am and 1pm 30/498; first seen after 1pm 16/498.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/11; first seen after 1pm 0/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.35pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run32 days ago · 31 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 2.7f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 14/1 | Avg: 17/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (45%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/2Market avg 11/2

11/2 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.35pp (-2.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

55th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE55th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Musselburgh on 25 Aug 2026 (-4.39pp); finished 3rd at Catterick on 21 May 2026 (-3.33pp); finished 5th at Doncaster on 02 May 2026 (-5.56pp); finished 6th at Pontefract on 07 Apr 2026 (-2.80pp); and finished 2nd at Chelmsford (AW) on 12 Mar 2026 (-4.81pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.3% • -0.35 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Musselburgh, 25 Aug 2026 — 4th • open 3/1 → final 13/2 (-11.06pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

13/2 7.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.35ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.35pp
Ripon18 Jun 20261m · Class 6 · Good · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/2	+0.87ppOpen → 10am	10/3	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	10/3	+0.00pp1pm → SP	10/3	1st	+0.87pp
Post-race comment
Chelmsford (AW)12 Mar 20267f · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	-4.81ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+1.40pp10am → 1pm	10/1	-1.40pp1pm → SP	12/1	2nd	-4.81pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.35ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.35pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 5 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Trucial Pearl is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Chelmsford (AW) · 12 Mar 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Chelmsford (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.35pp

Possible next price: 11/2

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Ice ShowDraw 8

Trainer: David O'Meara

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer David O'Meara (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 67/720; first seen between 10am and 1pm 52/720; first seen after 1pm 31/720.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.36pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run55 days ago · 8 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (40%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 7/1Market avg 7/1

7/1 ↑ 15/2 → 15/2 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.36pp (-3.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Redcar on 08 Aug 2026 (-2.80pp); and finished 5th at Hamilton on 27 May 2026 (-3.07pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3% • -0.36 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Hamilton, 27 May 2026 — 5th • open 11/1 → final 25/1 (-4.49pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

17/2 9.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	7/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.36ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.36pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	7/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.36ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.36pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Ice Show is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.36pp

Possible next price: 7/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

SonbelievableDraw 10

Trainer: Joseph Parr

Jockey: Jack Mitchell

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Joseph Parr (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 11/103; first seen between 10am and 1pm 11/103; first seen after 1pm 0/103.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.52pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run77 days ago · 17 Jul 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Best at SP (67%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 10/1

9/1 ↑ 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.52pp (-5.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 3 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 8th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 17 Jul 2026 (-4.03pp); and finished 9th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 28 Jun 2026 (-1.01pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.4% • -0.52 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 17 Jul 2026 — 8th • open 18/1 → final 100/1 (-4.77pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/1 12 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

2 of 3 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 4 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Sonbelievable is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.52pp

Possible next price: 8/1

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Forever TwentyDraw 12

Trainer: Ivan Furtado

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ivan Furtado (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 40/416; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/416; first seen after 1pm 13/416.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/11; first seen after 1pm 1/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.57pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run16 days ago · 16 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1.4f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Late money horse (27%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 10/1

9/1 ↑ 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.57pp (-6.1%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 6th at Beverley on 16 Sep 2026 (-2.42pp); finished 9th at Thirsk on 16 Jul 2026 (-3.21pp); finished 10th at Doncaster on 14 Jun 2026 (-5.23pp); and finished 7th at Newcastle (AW) on 13 Apr 2026 (-5.73pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.1% • -0.57 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Doncaster, 14 Jun 2026 — 10th • open 8/1 → final 18/1 (-5.85pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/1 11 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.57ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.57pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.57ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.57pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 4 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Forever Twenty is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Redcar, 18 May 2026 — 6th • open 7/1 → 1pm 3/1 → final 7/2

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

11 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.57pp

Possible next price: 8/1

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Newcastle (AW) is limited (2 runs without making the frame). Today's market is 20% shorter than usual against an average course SP profile of 13.3.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Elias EscapeDraw 13

Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey

Jockey: Cam Hardie

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 76/608; first seen between 10am and 1pm 28/608; first seen after 1pm 15/608.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.04pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run14 days ago · 18 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (75%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 10/1Market avg 10/1

10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↑ 10/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.04pp (-0.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 4 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 8th at Beverley on 16 Jun 2026 (-0.73pp); finished 8th at Doncaster on 16 May 2026 (-1.71pp); and finished 5th at Redcar on 30 Apr 2026 (-5.23pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.4% • -0.04 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Redcar, 30 Apr 2026 — 5th • open 8/1 → final 25/1 (-7.26pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	10/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.04ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.04pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	10/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.04ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.04pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Elias Escape is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.04pp

Possible next price: 10/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Diamond AuraDraw 4

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Jockey: David Allan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 151/1143; first seen between 10am and 1pm 66/1143; first seen after 1pm 34/1143.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.46pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run16 days ago · 16 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1.4f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 33/1 → 33/1 | Avg: 33/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (38%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 12/1

11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.46pp (-5.8%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

13th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE13th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

7 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Beverley on 16 Sep 2026 (-2.14pp); finished 9th at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Sep 2026 (-3.33pp); finished 6th at Redcar on 08 Aug 2026 (-1.88pp); finished 4th at Redcar on 19 Jul 2026 (-0.74pp); finished 2nd at Leicester on 04 Jul 2026 (-30.89pp); finished 4th at Brighton on 22 Jun 2026 (-8.97pp); and finished 5th at Chepstow on 29 May 2026 (-1.82pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.8% • -0.46 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Leicester, 04 Jul 2026 — 2nd • open 2/1 → final 33/1 (-30.39pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.46ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.46pp
Leicester04 Jul 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	2/1	-30.89ppOpen → 10am	40/1	+1.01pp10am → 1pm	28/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	28/1	2nd	-29.89pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.46ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.46pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

7 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Diamond Aura is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Leicester · 04 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Leicester×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 1m 2f×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.46pp

Possible next price: 10/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 14 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 14 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

19:45Newcastle (AW) • 1m5y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

3 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

King SharjaDraw 5

Trainer: Ruth Carr

Jockey: James Sullivan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ruth Carr (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 60/444; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/444; first seen after 1pm 16/444.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 3/11; first seen after 1pm 0/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.27pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run8 days ago · 24 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: 13/8 → 12/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (36%)

19:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/4Market avg 3/1

11/4 ↑ 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 ↓ 11/4 → 11/4 ↑ 3/1 → 3/1

PRICE MOVE

-1.27pp (-5.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 5th at Musselburgh on 31 Jul 2026 (-1.79pp); finished 10th at Beverley on 03 Jul 2026 (-4.81pp); finished 2nd at Carlisle on 29 May 2026 (-1.97pp); and finished 11th at Southwell (AW) on 28 Apr 2026 (-3.42pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5% • -1.27 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Southwell (AW), 24 Sep 2026 — 1st • open 3/1 → final 4/1 (-5.00pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

3/1 4 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	11/4	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.27ppOpen → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.27pp
Southwell (AW)24 Sep 20261m 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	3/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	3/1	-2.78pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-2.22pp1pm → SP	4/1	1st	-5.00pp
Post-race comment
Wolverhampton (AW)18 Sep 20267f 36y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/2	+7.79ppOpen → 10am	7/4	-1.64pp10am → 1pm	15/8	+3.45pp1pm → SP	13/8	1st	+9.60pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh12 Sep 20261m 2y · Class 6 · Good · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+6.09ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-4.04pp10am → 1pm	9/2	+0.00pp1pm → SP	9/2	1st	+2.05pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)27 Aug 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	+3.51ppOpen → 10am	5/1	-1.28pp10am → 1pm	11/2	-1.10pp1pm → SP	6/1	2nd	+1.13pp
Post-race comment
Carlisle29 May 20266f 195y · Class 6 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	-1.97ppOpen → 10am	17/2	-2.83pp10am → 1pm	12/1	+0.64pp1pm → SP	11/1	2nd	-4.17pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)21 May 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+3.09pp10am → 1pm	10/3	+0.00pp1pm → SP	10/3	2nd	+6.43pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	11/4	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.27ppOpen → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.27pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 4 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: King Sharja is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 24 Sep 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held or strengthened.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -1.27pp

Possible next price: 3/1

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Beauty GenerationDraw 2

Trainer: Ross Burdon

Jockey: Jason Hart

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ross Burdon (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 14/98; first seen between 10am and 1pm 15/98; first seen after 1pm 5/98.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/8; first seen after 1pm 1/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.98pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run52 days ago · 11 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 2.2f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 6/1 → 11/1 | Avg: 17/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (50%)

19:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 11/2

11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.98pp (-6.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 2nd at Nottingham on 11 Aug 2026 (-3.33pp); and finished 7th at Kempton (AW) on 07 Jan 2026 (-1.40pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.3% • -0.98 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Leicester, 25 Apr 2026 — 4th • open 4/1 → final 17/2 (-9.47pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.98ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.98pp
Nottingham11 Aug 20261m 2f 50y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	-3.33ppOpen → 10am	13/2	-2.22pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-2.02pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	-7.58pp
Post-race comment
Nottingham02 Jul 20261m 2f 50y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	+1.44ppOpen → 10am	17/2	+2.81pp10am → 1pm	13/2	-1.57pp1pm → SP	15/2	1st	+2.67pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.98ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.98pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Beauty Generation is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Nottingham · 11 Aug 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Nottingham×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 5y · previous 1m 2f 50y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.98pp

Possible next price: 11/2

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Relevant RangeDraw 3

Trainer: Ivan Furtado

Jockey: Elle-May Croot(5)

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ivan Furtado (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 40/416; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/416; first seen after 1pm 13/416.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/15; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/15; first seen after 1pm 0/15.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.40pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 15 | Fixed-odds range: 5/4 → 11/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (20%)

19:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 16/1Market avg 18/1

18/1 ↓ 16/1 ↑ 18/1 ↓ 16/1 → 16/1 ↑ 18/1 → 18/1 ↑ 22/1 ↓ 16/1 → 16/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.40pp (-7.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

27th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE27th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

11 of 15 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 11th at Southwell (AW) on 31 Aug 2026 (-0.74pp); finished 4th at Nottingham on 30 Jul 2026 (-2.22pp); finished 1st at Doncaster on 18 Jul 2026 (-28.06pp); finished 6th at Kempton (AW) on 08 Jul 2026 (-2.38pp); finished 2nd at Musselburgh on 22 Jun 2026 (-0.91pp); finished 8th at Doncaster on 25 Apr 2026 (-1.90pp); finished 10th at Doncaster on 28 Mar 2026 (-5.10pp); finished 4th at Southwell (AW) on 13 Mar 2026 (-2.52pp); finished 3rd at Southwell (AW) on 04 Mar 2026 (-4.29pp); finished 6th at Newcastle (AW) on 31 Jan 2026 (-4.10pp); and finished 1st at Newcastle (AW) on 24 Jan 2026 (-2.43pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 7.4% • -0.40 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Doncaster, 18 Jul 2026 — 1st • open 15/8 → final 11/1 (-26.39pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

22/1 23 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.40ppOpen → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.40pp
Doncaster18 Jul 20267f 213y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/8	-28.06ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+1.67pp10am → 1pm	11/1	+2.78pp1pm → SP	8/1	1st	-23.61pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh22 Jun 20261m 2y · Class 6 · Good · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/1	-0.91ppOpen → 10am	10/1	+3.41pp10am → 1pm	7/1	+0.83pp1pm → SP	13/2	2nd	+3.33pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)24 Jan 20261m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/4	-2.43ppOpen → 10am	11/8	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/8	-2.02pp1pm → SP	6/4	1st	-4.44pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)17 Jan 20261m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/8	+10.73ppOpen → 10am	6/5	+4.55pp10am → 1pm	EVS	-4.55pp1pm → SP	6/5	1st	+10.73pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)10 Jan 20261m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/4	-2.20ppOpen → 10am	5/2	+9.45pp10am → 1pm	13/8	+0.15pp1pm → SP	13/8	2nd	+7.40pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.40ppOpen → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.40pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

11 of 15 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Relevant Range is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 24 Jan 2026 · 1st · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Wolverhampton (AW), 19 Jan 2026 — 3rd • open 11/8 → 1pm EVS → final 11/10
Southwell (AW), 17 Jan 2026 — 1st • open 15/8 → 1pm EVS → final 5/4

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.40pp

Possible next price: 14/1

15 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
At Newcastle (AW) this horse has recorded 1 placed effort from 3 runs. The current market is 188% bigger than usual against an average course SP profile of 6.3.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 6 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 6 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

20:15Newcastle (AW) • 6f • Class 6 • Going: Standard

6 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Mayo CountyDraw 6

Trainer: Julie Camacho

Jockey: Ryan Sexton

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Julie Camacho (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 30/285; first seen between 10am and 1pm 18/285; first seen after 1pm 9/285.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.03pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 11/4 → 12/1 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (50%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 4/1Market avg 9/2

9/2 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 9/2

PRICE MOVE

-1.03pp (-5.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

70th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE70th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 10 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Doncaster on 06 Jun 2026 (-2.80pp); finished 5th at Newcastle (AW) on 14 Feb 2026 (-4.17pp); and finished 3rd at Southwell (AW) on 23 Jan 2026 (-4.17pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.4% • -1.03 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 29 Dec 2025 — 2nd • open 7/1 → final 12/1 (-4.81pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

5/1 6 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.03ppOpen → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.03pp
Redcar25 May 20267f · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+6.67ppOpen → 10am	11/4	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-1.67pp1pm → SP	3/1	1st	+5.00pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)29 Dec 20256f · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	+9.72ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-12.22pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-0.91pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	-3.41pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.03ppOpen → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.03pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 3 of 10 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Mayo County is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 29 Dec 2025 · 2nd · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 6f✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -1.03pp

Possible next price: 5/1

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Previous course evidence shows 1 placed efforts from 3 runs at Newcastle (AW). Compared with an average course SP of 11.3, today's price is 53% shorter than usual.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Dance FantasyDraw 8

Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

Jockey: Jack Mitchell

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Simon & Ed Crisford (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 37/278; first seen between 10am and 1pm 26/278; first seen after 1pm 20/278.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.98pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run20 days ago · 12 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Mid

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (75%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/2Market avg 5/1

5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.98pp (-5.7%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

Only 1 of 4 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Kempton (AW) on 02 Mar 2026 (-8.33pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.7% • -0.98 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Kempton (AW), 02 Mar 2026 — 4th • open 3/1 → final 9/1 (-15.00pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

5/1 6 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.98ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.98pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.98ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.98pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Dance Fantasy is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.98pp

Possible next price: 4/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Men of HonourDraw 2

Trainer: Ruth Carr

Jockey: James Sullivan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ruth Carr (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 60/444; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/444; first seen after 1pm 16/444.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.19pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run13 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (14%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 7/1Market avg 7/1

7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.19pp (-1.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

29th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE29th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 7 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 5th at Redcar on 22 Aug 2026 (-1.71pp); finished 9th at Thirsk on 01 Jul 2026 (-0.50pp); finished 6th at Doncaster on 20 Jun 2026 (-0.92pp); finished 9th at Ripon on 03 Jun 2026 (-3.83pp); and finished 9th at Doncaster on 16 May 2026 (-2.93pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 1.6% • -0.19 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ripon, 03 Jun 2026 — 9th • open 10/1 → final 18/1 (-3.83pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

17/2 9.5 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	7/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.19ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.19pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	7/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.19ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.19pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Men of Honour is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Newcastle (AW), 19 Sep 2026 — 7th • open 9/1 → 1pm 9/2 → final 6/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

7 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.19pp

Possible next price: 7/1

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

PockleyDraw 5

Trainer: Linda Perratt

Jockey: David Allan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Linda Perratt (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 16/188; first seen between 10am and 1pm 8/188; first seen after 1pm 5/188.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.03pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1f from last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 11/1

11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.03pp (-0.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.3% • -0.03 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ayr, 17 Sep 2026 — 20th • open 28/1 → final 100/1 (-2.46pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.03ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.03pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.03ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.03pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Pockley is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.03pp

Possible next price: 11/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Bellagio ManDraw 4

Trainer: Antony Brittain

Jockey: Cam Hardie

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Antony Brittain (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 12/206; first seen between 10am and 1pm 9/206; first seen after 1pm 6/206.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.41pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run37 days ago · 26 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 12/1

12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.41pp (-5.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.2% • -0.41 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 01 May 2026 — 10th • open 12/1 → final 33/1 (-4.75pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.41ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.41pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.41ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.41pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Bellagio Man is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.41pp

Possible next price: 10/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Cape SovereignDraw 9

Trainer: Rebecca Menzies

Jockey: Ethan Tindall(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Rebecca Menzies (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 26/337; first seen between 10am and 1pm 12/337; first seen after 1pm 7/337.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.68pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run2 days ago · 30 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 18/1Market avg 20/1

22/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 22/1 ↓ 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 20/1 → 20/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.68pp (-14.9%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 14.9% • -0.68 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Carlisle, 09 Sep 2026 — 10th • open 14/1 → final 33/1 (-3.31pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

28/1 29 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	18/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.68ppOpen → now	20/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.68pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	18/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.68ppOpen → now	20/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.68pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Cape Sovereign is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.68pp

Possible next price: 20/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 10 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

Try Market Form free for 7 days.

Market moves. Straight to your device.

Get the most from Market Form on desktop.

Next-Off Market Intelligence

Our Mission

Gamble Responsibly 18+

COPYRIGHT & IP

Next-Off Market Intelligence

Get live market movement straight to your device.

Our Mission

Social Channels

Gamble Responsibly 18+

COPYRIGHT & IP