Live Horse Racing Market Movement

16:05Newcastle (AW) • 1m2f42y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

10 runners

Market Intelligence

Strongest support: Rajawail (+0.06 probability points)

Weakest support: We've Got This (-0.52 probability points)

LAST 5 MINUTE MOVES

Rajawail → 101 → 81 (19.8%)

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Koko BlueDraw 4

Trainer: Tom Clover

Jockey: Molly Keegan-Price(7)

🟢 Needs Support (27%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tom Clover (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 24/208; first seen between 10am and 1pm 21/208; first seen after 1pm 7/208.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.61pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run30 days ago · 2 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 13/8 → 10/1 | Avg: 6/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (40%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/8Market avg 6/4

11/8 ↑ 6/4 → 6/4 ↓ 11/8 → 11/8 ↑ 6/4 → 6/4 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 11/8 → 11/8

PRICE MOVE

-1.61pp (-4.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Brighton on 21 Jun 2026 (-3.33pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4% • -1.61 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Brighton, 21 Jun 2026 — 3rd • open 4/1 → final 9/2 (-1.82pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

15/8 2.88 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/8	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.61ppOpen → now	6/4Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.61pp
Newcastle (AW)02 Sep 20261m 2f 43y · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/4	+3.74ppOpen → 10am	9/4	+11.25pp10am → 1pm	11/8	+0.00pp1pm → SP	11/8	1st	+14.99pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)23 Jul 20261m 4f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	14/1	+3.86ppOpen → 10am	17/2	+0.58pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-1.11pp1pm → SP	9/1	2nd	+3.33pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/8	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.61ppOpen → now	6/4Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.61pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Koko Blue is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 02 Sep 2026 · 1st · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Both previous top-two finishes came with support of 2.42pp+.

At 2.42pp+: 2/3 finished 1st or 2nd (67%).

Today: -1.61pp — trigger not reached.

Possible next price: 5/4

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Gemini ManDraw 5

Trainer: Iain Jardine

Jockey: Andrew Mullen

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Iain Jardine (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 45/472; first seen between 10am and 1pm 26/472; first seen after 1pm 9/472.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 4/13; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/13; first seen after 1pm 1/13.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.06pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/60 won (25%); Open→SP 11/54 won (20.4%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 26.1% (6/23).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run7 days ago · 25 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 13 | Fixed-odds range: 8/11 → 13/2 | Avg: 7/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (54%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 10/3Market avg 10/3

10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3

PRICE MOVE

+0.06pp (+0.3%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

8 of 13 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 4th at Newcastle (AW) on 19 Sep 2026 (+4.58pp); finished 4th at Musselburgh on 07 Aug 2026 (+10.39pp); finished 2nd at Musselburgh on 31 Jul 2026 (+1.90pp); had no recorded finishing position at Musselburgh on 30 Jun 2026 (+7.79pp); finished 1st at Musselburgh on 22 Jun 2026 (+3.90pp); finished 2nd at Wolverhampton (AW) on 10 Mar 2026 (+11.11pp); finished 1st at Wolverhampton (AW) on 23 Feb 2026 (+8.57pp); and finished 6th at Musselburgh on 31 Jan 2026 (+1.76pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.3% • +0.06 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Wolverhampton (AW), 10 Mar 2026 — 2nd • open 2/1 → final 8/11 (+24.47pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/2 4.5 decimal William Hill

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	10/3	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.06ppOpen → now	10/3Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.06pp
Newcastle (AW)25 Sep 20261m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	-0.74ppOpen → 10am	15/2	+2.52pp10am → 1pm	6/1	+1.10pp1pm → SP	11/2	2nd	+2.88pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)03 Sep 20261m 4f 98y · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/1	-0.95ppOpen → 10am	13/2	+3.33pp10am → 1pm	5/1	+1.52pp1pm → SP	9/2	2nd	+3.90pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh31 Jul 20261m 5f · Class 6 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/4	+1.90ppOpen → 10am	5/2	+2.20pp10am → 1pm	9/4	+2.56pp1pm → SP	2/1	2nd	+6.67pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh22 Jun 20261m 4f 104y · Class 6 · Good · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/1	+3.90ppOpen → 10am	9/2	+12.59pp10am → 1pm	9/4	+0.00pp1pm → SP	9/4	1st	+16.48pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)02 Jun 20261m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	3/1	-11.67ppOpen → 10am	13/2	+2.05pp10am → 1pm	11/2	+1.28pp1pm → SP	5/1	1st	-8.33pp
Post-race comment
Wolverhampton (AW)10 Mar 20261m 4f 51y · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	2/1	+11.11ppOpen → 10am	5/4	+13.36pp10am → 1pm	8/11	-5.45pp1pm → SP	10/11	2nd	+19.02pp
Post-race comment
Wolverhampton (AW)23 Feb 20261m 1f 104y · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+8.57ppOpen → 10am	5/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	5/2	+2.20pp1pm → SP	9/4	1st	+10.77pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	10/3	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.06ppOpen → now	10/3Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.06pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

8 of 13 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Gemini Man is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 25 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +0.06pp

Possible next price: 10/3

13 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Course record
Course record of 3/5 at Newcastle (AW). The average SP at this course is 6.0 and today's market has the horse trading 28% shorter than usual.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

We've Got ThisDraw 3

Trainer: Ivan Furtado

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ivan Furtado (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 40/416; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/416; first seen after 1pm 13/416.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.52pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 2.2f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (33%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 13/2Market avg 7/1

13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1 ↓ 13/2 → 13/2 ↑ 7/1 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 15/2 ↓ 13/2 → 13/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.52pp (-4.1%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 6 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Thirsk on 01 Jul 2026 (-2.43pp); finished 5th at Redcar on 18 May 2026 (-2.78pp); and finished 6th at Pontefract on 29 Apr 2026 (-6.84pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.1% • -0.52 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Pontefract, 29 Apr 2026 — 6th • open 7/2 → final 11/2 (-6.84pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

15/2 8.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: We've Got This is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.52pp

Possible next price: 6/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Dinah MyteDraw 2

Trainer: John Gallagher

Jockey: William Pyle

🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer John Gallagher (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 14/102; first seen between 10am and 1pm 7/102; first seen after 1pm 3/102.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/12; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/12; first seen after 1pm 1/12.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.34pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run17 days ago · 15 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 3.8f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 12 | Fixed-odds range: 11/2 → 50/1 | Avg: 22/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Mid-market mover (25%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 15/2Market avg 15/2

8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 → 15/2 ↑ 8/1 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 8/1 ↓ 15/2 → 15/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.34pp (-2.9%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

9 of 12 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 15 Sep 2026 (-2.23pp); finished 1st at Leicester on 08 Sep 2026 (-5.84pp); finished 6th at Lingfield (AW) on 11 Aug 2026 (-0.95pp); finished 3rd at Yarmouth on 28 Jul 2026 (-9.76pp); finished 2nd at Nottingham on 04 Jul 2026 (-4.81pp); finished 1st at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Jun 2026 (-2.82pp); finished 7th at Beverley on 23 Apr 2026 (-3.85pp); finished 9th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 09 Apr 2026 (-2.04pp); and finished 7th at Southwell (AW) on 21 Mar 2026 (-4.75pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.9% • -0.34 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Yarmouth, 28 Jul 2026 — 3rd • open 10/3 → final 7/1 (-10.59pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

8/1 9 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.34ppOpen → now	15/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.34pp
Leicester08 Sep 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	-5.84ppOpen → 10am	8/1	+3.17pp10am → 1pm	6/1	+1.10pp1pm → SP	11/2	1st	-1.56pp
Post-race comment
Nottingham04 Jul 20261m 2f 50y · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	-4.81ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+1.40pp10am → 1pm	10/1	+3.41pp1pm → SP	7/1	2nd	+0.00pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)02 Jun 20261m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	14/1	-2.82ppOpen → 10am	25/1	-0.40pp10am → 1pm	28/1	-1.01pp1pm → SP	40/1	1st	-4.23pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.34ppOpen → now	15/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.34pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

9 of 12 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Dinah Myte is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 02 Jun 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 2f 42y · previous 1m 5y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Ffos Las, 28 Aug 2026 — 6th • open 11/2 → 1pm 15/8 → final 2/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.34pp

Possible next price: 7/1

12 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Jetpack JimmyDraw 1

Trainer: Simon Whitaker

Jockey: Andrew Elliott

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Simon Whitaker (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 5/72; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/72; first seen after 1pm 1/72.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.11pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/3 won (0%); Open→SP 0/4 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 2.2f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Late money horse (33%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 9/1

17/2 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 17/2 → 17/2 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 17/2 → 17/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.11pp (+1.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 3 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 1.1% • +0.11 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/1 11 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.11ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.11pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.11ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.11pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 3 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. The horse drops from Class 4 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Jetpack Jimmy is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.11pp

Possible next price: 8/1

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

MillbuieDraw 9

Trainer: Ewan Whillans

Jockey: Joanna Mason

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ewan Whillans (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 22/205; first seen between 10am and 1pm 14/205; first seen after 1pm 2/205.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/13; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/13; first seen after 1pm 0/13.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.07pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 3/28 won (10.7%); Open→SP 1/27 won (3.7%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 10% (1/10).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run11 days ago · 21 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Early

Runs: 13 | Fixed-odds range: 17/2 → 12/1 | Avg: 10/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (31%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 9/1

17/2 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 17/2 → 17/2 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 17/2 → 17/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.07pp (+0.6%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

23th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE23rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

10 of 13 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 2nd at Hamilton on 21 Sep 2026 (+1.68pp); finished 3rd at Ayr on 10 Aug 2026 (+10.71pp); finished 2nd at Newcastle (AW) on 31 Jul 2026 (+1.79pp); finished 7th at Ayr on 13 Jul 2026 (+4.17pp); finished 3rd at Ayr on 05 Jul 2026 (+2.31pp); finished 10th at Hamilton on 10 Jun 2026 (+1.81pp); finished 3rd at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Jun 2026 (+4.33pp); finished 8th at Newcastle (AW) on 12 Mar 2026 (+0.76pp); finished 4th at Newcastle (AW) on 15 Feb 2026 (+0.95pp); and finished 6th at Newcastle (AW) on 22 Jan 2026 (+0.90pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.6% • +0.07 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Ayr, 10 Aug 2026 — 3rd • open 6/1 → final 11/4 (+12.38pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/1 11 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.07ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.07pp
Hamilton21 Sep 20261m 68y · Class 6 · Soft · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+1.68ppOpen → 10am	10/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	10/1	+1.44pp1pm → SP	17/2	2nd	+3.12pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)31 Jul 20261m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard / Slow · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	+1.79ppOpen → 10am	6/1	-3.17pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-2.02pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	-3.41pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.07ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.07pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

10 of 13 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Millbuie is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 31 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Standard / Slow✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Newcastle (AW), 02 Jun 2026 — 3rd • open 20/1 → 1pm 9/1 → final 12/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +0.07pp

Possible next price: 8/1

13 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Newcastle (AW) stands at 1 placed effort from 6 runs. Today's market is 35% shorter than usual compared with a long-term course average SP of 15.3.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Daring LeaderDraw 8

Trainer: Christopher Kellett

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Christopher Kellett (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/58; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/58; first seen after 1pm 0/58.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.28pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/1 won (100%); Open→SP 1/1 won (100%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run11 days ago · 21 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 5/1 → 5/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 10/1Market avg 10/1

10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.28pp (+3.0%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 8 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 4th at Hamilton on 21 Sep 2026 (+0.60pp); and finished 1st at Pontefract on 29 Jun 2026 (+5.64pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3% • +0.28 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Pontefract, 29 Jun 2026 — 1st • open 12/1 → final 5/1 (+8.97pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	10/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.28ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.28pp
Pontefract29 Jun 20261m 6y · Class 6 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+5.64ppOpen → 10am	13/2	+3.33pp10am → 1pm	5/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	5/1	1st	+8.97pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	10/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.28ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.28pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Daring Leader is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Pontefract · 29 Jun 2026 · 1st · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Pontefract×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 2f 42y · previous 1m 6y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +0.28pp

Possible next price: 8/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
No placed efforts from 2 previous runs at Newcastle (AW). The current market is 54% shorter than usual compared with a typical course SP of 23.0.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

DistinctionDraw 10

Trainer: John Mackie

Jockey: Connor Beasley

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer John Mackie (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 6/112; first seen between 10am and 1pm 7/112; first seen after 1pm 5/112.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/11; first seen after 1pm 0/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.12pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 2/12 won (16.7%); Open→SP 6/16 won (37.5%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 71.4% (5/7).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (36%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 11/1

11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.12pp (+1.4%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

91th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE91st HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 11 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 8th at Southwell (AW) on 06 Aug 2026 (+1.12pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 1.4% • +0.12 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Beverley, 29 Aug 2026 — 5th • open 10/1 → final 8/1 (+2.02pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.12ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.12pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.12ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.12pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Distinction is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

11 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.12pp

Possible next price: 11/1

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Sovereign BrightDraw 7

Trainer: Charlie Johnston

Jockey: Jack Callan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Charlie Johnston (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 71/702; first seen between 10am and 1pm 46/702; first seen after 1pm 25/702.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.26pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 23/102 won (22.5%); Open→SP 25/109 won (22.9%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 36.8% (14/38).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run38 days ago · 25 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (29%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 14/1Market avg 14/1

12/1 ↑ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 ↓ 12/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 14/1 → 14/1 ↓ 12/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.26pp (+3.8%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

71th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE71st HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 6th at Lingfield (AW) on 25 Aug 2026 (+9.67pp); and finished 12th at Musselburgh on 26 Apr 2026 (+2.42pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.8% • +0.26 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Lingfield (AW), 25 Aug 2026 — 6th • open 16/1 → final 11/2 (+9.67pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Bet Victor

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	14/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.26ppOpen → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.26pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	14/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.26ppOpen → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.26pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Sovereign Bright is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

7 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.26pp

Possible next price: 10/1

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

RajawailDraw 6

Trainer: Brian Rothwell

Jockey: Faye McManoman

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Brian Rothwell (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/43; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/43; first seen after 1pm 0/43.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.06pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/0 won (0%); Open→SP 0/0 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run7 days ago · 25 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

LAST MINUTE BACKING (19.8%)

10am plunger

Late money horse (67%)

16:05Newcastle (AW)

Opened 100/1Market avg 100/1

100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 ↓ 80/1 ↑ 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 ↓ 80/1 → 80/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.06pp (+6.0%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 9 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 10th at Beverley on 16 Jun 2026 (+0.73pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6% • +0.06 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 101 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.06ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.06pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.06ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.06pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Rajawail is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This early support is unusual; the price has often drifted again later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

9 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.06pp

Possible next price: 66/1

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
This horse is 0/2 at Newcastle (AW) on our records. Today's market is 62% shorter than usual against an average course SP of 251.0.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 10 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

16:40Newcastle (AW) • 1m2f42y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

10 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

KameelDraw 9

Trainer: Jessica Macey

Jockey: Oliver Stammers

🟢 Needs Support (8%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jessica Macey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 13/148; first seen between 10am and 1pm 6/148; first seen after 1pm 8/148.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.75pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run16 days ago · 16 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.7f from last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 15/2 → 8/1 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (50%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/2Market avg 5/2

11/4 ↓ 5/2 ↑ 11/4 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 ↑ 3/1 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.75pp (-2.7%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

90th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE90th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 10 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 9th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 06 Apr 2026 (-10.91pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.7% • -0.75 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 06 Apr 2026 — 9th • open 4/1 → final 10/1 (-10.91pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

3/1 4 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.75ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.75pp
Beverley16 Sep 20261m 100y · Class 6 · Good · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/1	+0.32ppOpen → 10am	17/2	-2.19pp10am → 1pm	11/1	+4.17pp1pm → SP	7/1	2nd	+2.30pp
Post-race comment
Redcar25 May 20261m 2f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	17/2	+1.24ppOpen → 10am	15/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	15/2	+1.57pp1pm → SP	13/2	2nd	+2.81pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.75ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.75pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 10 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Kameel is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 25 May 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Both previous top-two finishes came with support of 0.9pp+.

At 0.9pp+: 2/8 finished 1st or 2nd (25%).

Today: -0.75pp — trigger not reached.

Possible next price: 5/2

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Course record
No placed efforts from 2 previous runs at Newcastle (AW). The current market is 66% shorter than usual compared with a typical course SP of 10.5.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

HaltonwoodDraw 6

Trainer: Ivan Furtado

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ivan Furtado (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 40/416; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/416; first seen after 1pm 13/416.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.87pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 8/54 won (14.8%); Open→SP 9/56 won (16.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 20.8% (5/24).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run120 days ago · 4 Jun 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Best at SP (40%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 4/1Market avg 4/1

4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.87pp (+4.2%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 5 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.2% • +0.87 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Doncaster, 16 May 2026 — 4th • open 33/1 → final 28/1 (+0.51pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

4/1 5 decimal BetTom

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.87ppOpen → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.87pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.87ppOpen → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.87pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 5 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. Today’s move: Haltonwood is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.87pp

Possible next price: 3/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
No placed efforts from 2 previous runs at Newcastle (AW). The current market is 91% shorter than usual compared with a typical course SP of 54.0.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

TypefaceDraw 2

Trainer: Ian Williams

Jockey: Stevie Donohoe

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ian Williams (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 66/593; first seen between 10am and 1pm 45/593; first seen after 1pm 21/593.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +1.31pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 28/98 won (28.6%); Open→SP 27/103 won (26.2%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 33.3% (16/48).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run13 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (67%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 9/2

9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2

PRICE MOVE

+1.31pp (+7.3%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 6 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 4th at Bath on 12 Sep 2026 (+6.26pp); finished 3rd at Ffos Las on 23 Jun 2026 (+21.36pp); finished 4th at Yarmouth on 28 May 2026 (+1.67pp); and finished 6th at Doncaster on 16 May 2026 (+3.33pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 7.3% • +1.31 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Ffos Las, 23 Jun 2026 — 3rd • open 5/1 → final 11/10 (+30.95pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

5/1 6 decimal William Hill

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+1.31ppOpen → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.31pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+1.31ppOpen → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.31pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

4 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Typeface is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +1.31pp

Possible next price: 9/2

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Bergamo GoldDraw 10

Trainer: Charlie Johnston

Jockey: Jack Callan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Charlie Johnston (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 71/702; first seen between 10am and 1pm 46/702; first seen after 1pm 25/702.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/11; first seen after 1pm 1/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.04pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run46 days ago · 17 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: EVS → 10/1 | Avg: 6/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (36%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/2Market avg 5/1

5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2

PRICE MOVE

-1.04pp (-6.1%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

36th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE36th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

7 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Leicester on 14 Jul 2026 (-1.40pp); finished 8th at Redcar on 18 May 2026 (-5.24pp); finished 9th at Lingfield (AW) on 30 Apr 2026 (-3.17pp); finished 3rd at Wolverhampton (AW) on 30 Mar 2026 (-14.72pp); finished 1st at Lingfield (AW) on 05 Mar 2026 (-7.94pp); finished 2nd at Chelmsford (AW) on 08 Feb 2026 (-4.17pp); and finished 5th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 03 Feb 2026 (-2.22pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.1% • -1.04 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 03 Feb 2026 — 5th • open 7/2 → final 16/1 (-16.34pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.04ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.04pp
Lingfield (AW)14 Apr 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+2.22pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-4.04pp1pm → SP	9/2	2nd	+1.52pp
Post-race comment
Wolverhampton (AW)13 Mar 20261m 1f 104y · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/8	+14.33ppOpen → 10am	10/11	-2.36pp10am → 1pm	EVS	+7.80pp1pm → SP	8/11	1st	+19.78pp
Post-race comment
Lingfield (AW)05 Mar 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/2	-7.94ppOpen → 10am	6/1	-0.95pp10am → 1pm	13/2	-2.81pp1pm → SP	17/2	1st	-11.70pp
Post-race comment
Chelmsford (AW)08 Feb 20261m · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	-4.17ppOpen → 10am	7/1	-1.97pp10am → 1pm	17/2	-2.19pp1pm → SP	11/1	2nd	-8.33pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.04ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.04pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

7 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Bergamo Gold is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Lingfield (AW) · 14 Apr 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Lingfield (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -1.04pp

Possible next price: 4/1

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Tiberio ForceDraw 7

Trainer: Simon Whitaker

Jockey: Mark Winn

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Simon Whitaker (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 5/72; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/72; first seen after 1pm 1/72.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/7; first seen after 1pm 1/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.04pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/3 won (0%); Open→SP 0/4 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run10 days ago · 22 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 15/2 → 15/2 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (57%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 13/2Market avg 13/2

13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 13/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.04pp (+0.3%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

29th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE29th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 1st at Ripon on 31 Aug 2026 (+1.30pp); finished 9th at Ripon on 15 Aug 2026 (+0.22pp); finished 8th at Newcastle (AW) on 31 Jul 2026 (+5.56pp); finished 7th at Redcar on 25 May 2026 (+2.52pp); and finished 6th at Ripon on 17 May 2026 (+0.64pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.3% • +0.04 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Redcar, 25 May 2026 — 7th • open 15/2 → final 9/2 (+6.42pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/1 8 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.04ppOpen → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.04pp
Ripon31 Aug 20261m 1f 170y · Class 6 · Soft · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	+1.30ppOpen → 10am	9/1	+1.11pp10am → 1pm	8/1	+1.39pp1pm → SP	7/1	1st	+3.80pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.04ppOpen → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.04pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Tiberio Force is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ripon · 31 Aug 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Ripon✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Soft✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

7 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +0.04pp

Possible next price: 13/2

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

He's Our CrackerDraw 1

Trainer: Jennie Candlish

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jennie Candlish (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 48/403; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/403; first seen after 1pm 16/403.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 2/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.15pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run79 days ago · 15 Jul 2026

Distance changeDown 1.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

1 historical matches

0/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: 10am

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 8/1 → 8/1 | Avg: 8/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 13/2Market avg 7/1

15/2 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 15/2 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1

PRICE MOVE

-1.15pp (-9.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

63th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE63rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Catterick on 15 Jul 2026 (-1.52pp); finished 8th at Newcastle (AW) on 26 Jun 2026 (-3.99pp); and finished 12th at Leicester on 25 Apr 2026 (-1.82pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 9.4% • -1.15 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Catterick, 15 Jul 2026 — 4th • open 9/2 → final 13/2 (-4.85pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

17/2 9.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.15ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.15pp
Chelmsford (AW)12 Mar 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	5/1	-4.90pp10am → 1pm	15/2	+0.74pp1pm → SP	7/1	1st	-0.83pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.15ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.15pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 3 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: He's Our Cracker is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Chelmsford (AW) · 12 Mar 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Chelmsford (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 2f 42y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -1.15pp

Possible next price: 7/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Newcastle (AW) is limited (2 runs without making the frame). Today's market is 20% shorter than usual against an average course SP profile of 10.3.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

SandretDraw 5

Trainer: Sam England

Jockey: P. J. McDonald

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Sam England (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 34/275; first seen between 10am and 1pm 21/275; first seen after 1pm 13/275.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.00pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 14/50 won (28%); Open→SP 16/52 won (30.8%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 31.8% (7/22).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run9 days ago · 23 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 3.2f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (20%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 15/2Market avg 15/2

15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 15/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.00pp (+0.0%)

No meaningful price change from the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 6th at Redcar on 23 Sep 2026 (+2.78pp); and finished 8th at Beverley on 28 Jul 2026 (+0.78pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0% • +0.00 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Redcar, 23 Sep 2026 — 6th • open 11/1 → final 9/1 (+1.67pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

8/1 9 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.00ppOpen → now	15/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.00pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.00ppOpen → now	15/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.00pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Sandret is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.00pp

Possible next price: 15/2

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Hill O RueDraw 4

Trainer: Kevin Ryan

Jockey: Tom Eaves

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Kevin Ryan (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 42/440; first seen between 10am and 1pm 31/440; first seen after 1pm 9/440.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.52pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (40%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 12/1

12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.52pp (-6.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 6th at Pontefract on 17 Sep 2026 (-1.87pp); and finished 9th at Redcar on 20 Apr 2026 (-15.00pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.6% • -0.52 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Redcar, 20 Apr 2026 — 9th • open 3/1 → final 12/1 (-17.31pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Hill O Rue is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.52pp

Possible next price: 10/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Mystic WaveDraw 8

Trainer: David Thompson

Jockey: Aiden Brookes

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer David Thompson (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/87; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/87; first seen after 1pm 2/87.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.15pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/3 won (33.3%); Open→SP 1/5 won (20%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run30 days ago · 2 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 4.2f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (67%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 66/1Market avg 66/1

66/1 → 66/1 → 66/1 → 66/1 ↓ 66/1 ↑ 66/1 ↓ 50/1 ↑ 66/1 → 66/1 ↑ 66/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.15pp (+9.9%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 3 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 9.9% • +0.15 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

66/1 71 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	66/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.15ppOpen → now	66/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.15pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	66/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.15ppOpen → now	66/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.15pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 3 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. The horse drops from Class 4 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Mystic Wave is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This early support is unusual; the price has often drifted again later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.15pp

Possible next price: 80/1

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
No placed efforts from 2 previous runs at Newcastle (AW). The current market is 77% shorter than usual compared with a typical course SP of 276.0.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

The Floors MunkyDraw 3

Trainer: Gary Rutherford

Jockey: Rhys Elliott(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Gary Rutherford (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 6/84; first seen between 10am and 1pm 3/84; first seen after 1pm 5/84.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.15pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/7 won (14.3%); Open→SP 1/13 won (7.7%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run13 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 2.2f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (33%)

16:40Newcastle (AW)

Opened 66/1Market avg 66/1

66/1 → 66/1 → 66/1 → 66/1 ↓ 66/1 ↑ 66/1 ↓ 50/1 ↑ 66/1 → 66/1 ↑ 66/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.15pp (+9.9%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 9 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 8th at Newcastle (AW) on 19 Sep 2026 (+0.47pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 9.9% • +0.15 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

66/1 71 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	66/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.15ppOpen → now	66/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.15pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 2f 42y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	66/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.15ppOpen → now	66/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.15pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: The Floors Munky is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

9 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.15pp

Possible next price: 80/1

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Newcastle (AW) is limited (4 runs without making the frame). Today's market is 50% shorter than usual against an average course SP profile of 127.3.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 10 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

17:15Newcastle (AW) • 7f14y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

10 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Son of A FishDraw 4

Trainer: Richard Hannon

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard Hannon (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 94/764; first seen between 10am and 1pm 47/764; first seen after 1pm 34/764.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.82pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run9 days ago · 23 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 11/4 → 11/4 | Avg: 11/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Late money horse (40%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/2Market avg 5/2

11/4 ↓ 5/2 ↑ 11/4 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 ↓ 5/2 ↑ 10/3 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.82pp (-2.9%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Windsor on 24 Aug 2026 (-1.28pp); and finished 5th at Lingfield (AW) on 06 Jul 2026 (-3.07pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.9% • -0.82 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Redcar, 23 Sep 2026 — 2nd • open 2/1 → final 11/4 (-6.67pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/3 4.33 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.82ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.82pp
Redcar23 Sep 20267f 219y · Class 6 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	2/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	2/1	-6.67pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-4.44pp1pm → SP	7/2	2nd	-11.11pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.82ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.82pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Son of A Fish is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 23 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 7f 219y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.82pp

Possible next price: 5/2

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Perfect HopeDraw 8

Trainer: Tom Ward

Jockey: Jason Hart

🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tom Ward (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 11/149; first seen between 10am and 1pm 14/149; first seen after 1pm 5/149.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.03pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 7/24 won (29.2%); Open→SP 9/26 won (34.6%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (2/5).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run14 days ago · 18 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: 2/1 → 12/1 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Best at SP (33%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 4/1Market avg 4/1

4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 4/1 → 4/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.03pp (+0.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

83th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE83rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 6 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 2nd at Kempton (AW) on 19 Aug 2026 (+1.00pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.1% • +0.03 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/2 5.5 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.03ppOpen → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.03pp
Wolverhampton (AW)18 Sep 20267f 36y · Class 6 · Standard · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/8	-3.69ppOpen → 10am	15/8	-1.15pp10am → 1pm	2/1	-4.76pp1pm → SP	5/2	2nd	-9.60pp
Post-race comment
Leicester08 Sep 20267f · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/3	-5.63ppOpen → 10am	9/2	-7.66pp10am → 1pm	17/2	+0.00pp1pm → SP	17/2	2nd	-13.28pp
Post-race comment
Kempton (AW)19 Aug 20267f · Class 6 · Standard / Slow · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/1	+1.00ppOpen → 10am	17/2	-1.44pp10am → 1pm	10/1	+2.67pp1pm → SP	15/2	2nd	+2.24pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.03ppOpen → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.03pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Perfect Hope is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Wolverhampton (AW) · 18 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Wolverhampton (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +0.03pp

Possible next price: 4/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

OnslaughtDraw 6

Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey

Jockey: Billy Garritty

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 76/608; first seen between 10am and 1pm 28/608; first seen after 1pm 15/608.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.67pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run9 days ago · 23 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (17%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 5/1

11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.67pp (-4.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 6 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 5th at Carlisle on 11 Aug 2026 (-3.33pp); finished 3rd at Pontefract on 26 Jul 2026 (-5.56pp); finished 3rd at Hamilton on 11 Jul 2026 (-1.90pp); and finished 6th at Pontefract on 21 Jun 2026 (-9.47pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.2% • -0.67 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Pontefract, 21 Jun 2026 — 6th • open 4/1 → final 11/1 (-11.67pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

13/2 7.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.67ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.67pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.67ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.67pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

4 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Onslaught is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Redcar, 23 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 16/1 → 1pm 13/2 → final 15/2

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.67pp

Possible next price: 5/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Claret TimeDraw 2

Trainer: Nigel Tinkler

Jockey: Alex Jary(3)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Nigel Tinkler (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 30/325; first seen between 10am and 1pm 13/325; first seen after 1pm 11/325.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.80pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run18 days ago · 14 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Early PM

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 15/2 → 15/2 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (20%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 11/2

5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.80pp (-5.1%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Thirsk on 14 Sep 2026 (-5.45pp); finished 2nd at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Sep 2026 (-0.87pp); finished 8th at Doncaster on 18 Jul 2026 (-3.77pp); finished 7th at Thirsk on 01 Jul 2026 (-1.53pp); and finished 5th at Redcar on 20 Jun 2026 (-1.71pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.1% • -0.80 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Thirsk, 14 Sep 2026 — 4th • open 4/1 → final 6/1 (-6.55pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.80ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.80pp
Newcastle (AW)02 Sep 20266f 1y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	8/1	-0.87ppOpen → 10am	9/1	+2.50pp10am → 1pm	7/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	7/1	2nd	+1.63pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.80ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.80pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Claret Time is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 02 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 6f 1y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.80pp

Possible next price: 9/2

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

CallisterraDraw 10

Trainer: Michael Dods

Jockey: Connor Beasley

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Michael Dods (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 50/407; first seen between 10am and 1pm 15/407; first seen after 1pm 12/407.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

Most often first apparent by 10am in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.10pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 11/52 won (21.2%); Open→SP 11/60 won (18.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 36% (9/25).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: 9/2 → 9/2 | Avg: 9/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (50%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/2Market avg 11/2

11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.10pp (+0.7%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 4 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Thirsk on 05 Sep 2026 (+6.11pp); finished 3rd at Redcar on 22 Aug 2026 (+6.38pp); and finished 2nd at Redcar on 20 Jun 2026 (+7.58pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.7% • +0.10 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Redcar, 20 Jun 2026 — 2nd • open 10/1 → final 9/2 (+9.09pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

6/1 7 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.10ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.10pp
Redcar20 Jun 20265f 217y · Class 5 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	+7.58ppOpen → 10am	5/1	+3.33pp10am → 1pm	4/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	4/1	2nd	+10.91pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.10ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.10pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 2 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Callisterra is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 20 Jun 2026 · 2nd · 0/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 5f 217y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good×Class: Today Class 6 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +0.10pp

Possible next price: 11/2

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Soldier's EchoDraw 1

Trainer: Hugo Palmer

Jockey: Robert Havlin

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Hugo Palmer (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 62/446; first seen between 10am and 1pm 34/446; first seen after 1pm 17/446.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.16pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 24/79 won (30.4%); Open→SP 24/92 won (26.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 33.3% (11/33).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run14 days ago · 18 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (40%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 8/1Market avg 8/1

15/2 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.16pp (+1.4%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 5 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 1.4% • +0.16 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

8/1 9 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.16ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.16pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.16ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.16pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 5 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. Today’s move: Soldier's Echo is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This early support is unusual; the price has often drifted again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.16pp

Possible next price: 8/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Sankhum GalaxyDraw 3

Trainer: Ben Haslam

Jockey: Andrew Mullen

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ben Haslam (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 24/222; first seen between 10am and 1pm 16/222; first seen after 1pm 7/222.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.00pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 14/35 won (40%); Open→SP 9/32 won (28.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (6/15).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (67%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 11/1

12/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.00pp (+0.0%)

No meaningful price change from the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 3 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 0% • +0.00 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.00ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.00pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.00ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.00pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 3 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. The horse drops from Class 4 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Sankhum Galaxy is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.00pp

Possible next price: 12/1

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Waiting For ArchieDraw 9

Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey

Jockey: Barry McHugh

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 76/608; first seen between 10am and 1pm 28/608; first seen after 1pm 15/608.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.05pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run14 days ago · 18 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (20%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 12/1Market avg 12/1

12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.05pp (-0.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Leicester on 08 Jun 2026 (-0.58pp); and finished 5th at Thirsk on 02 May 2026 (-9.85pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.6% • -0.05 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Thirsk, 02 May 2026 — 5th • open 9/2 → final 16/1 (-12.30pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	12/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.05ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.05pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	12/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.05ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.05pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Waiting For Archie is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.05pp

Possible next price: 12/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Aurora ValkyrieDraw 7

Trainer: Katie Scott

Jockey: Sam James

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Katie Scott (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 15/170; first seen between 10am and 1pm 7/170; first seen after 1pm 5/170.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.19pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 3/19 won (15.8%); Open→SP 3/21 won (14.3%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run36 days ago · 27 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 0.7f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (40%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 16/1Market avg 16/1

16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 ↑ 16/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.19pp (+3.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

40th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE40th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 4th at Carlisle on 27 Aug 2026 (+0.26pp); finished 7th at Musselburgh on 31 Jul 2026 (+5.00pp); and finished 8th at Haydock on 22 May 2026 (+0.48pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.1% • +0.19 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Musselburgh, 31 Jul 2026 — 7th • open 4/1 → final 11/4 (+6.67pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

16/1 17 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.19ppOpen → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.19pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.19ppOpen → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.19pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 4 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Aurora Valkyrie is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.19pp

Possible next price: 16/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Kaiulani SpiritDraw 5

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Jockey: Duran Fentiman

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 151/1143; first seen between 10am and 1pm 66/1143; first seen after 1pm 34/1143.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.09pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 45/186 won (24.2%); Open→SP 47/195 won (24.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 34.1% (29/85).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run30 days ago · 2 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (50%)

17:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 25/1Market avg 25/1

25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 ↓ 22/1 ↑ 25/1 → 25/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 22/1 ↑ 25/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.09pp (+2.3%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

Only 1 of 4 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 7th at Leicester on 25 Jun 2026 (+1.40pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.3% • +0.09 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

28/1 29 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	25/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.09ppOpen → now	25/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.09pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	25/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.09ppOpen → now	25/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.09pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Kaiulani Spirit is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This early support is unusual; the price has often drifted again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.09pp

Possible next price: 25/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 10 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

17:45Newcastle (AW) • 1m5y • Class 4 • Going: Standard

6 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

NoozhaaDraw 1

Trainer: Roger Varian

Jockey: Jack Mitchell

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Roger Varian (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 74/323; first seen between 10am and 1pm 24/323; first seen after 1pm 18/323.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -2.10pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1f from last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 7/2 | Avg: 7/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

17:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 10/11Market avg EVS

EVS ↓ 10/11 ↑ EVS ↓ 10/11 ↑ EVS → EVS ↑ 11/10 → 11/10 ↓ 10/11 ↑ EVS

PRICE MOVE

-2.10pp (-4.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.2% • -2.10 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous open-to-final drift in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/10 2.1 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	10/11	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-2.10ppOpen → now	EVSCurrent; SP pending	Pending	-2.10pp
Kempton (AW)09 Sep 20267f · Class 4 · Standard / Slow · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+5.39ppOpen → 10am	3/1	-1.91pp10am → 1pm	10/3	-3.09pp1pm → SP	4/1	2nd	+0.39pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	10/11	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-2.10ppOpen → now	EVSCurrent; SP pending	Pending	-2.10pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Noozhaa is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Kempton (AW) · 09 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Kempton (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 5y · previous 7f×Ground: Today Standard · previous Standard / Slow✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -2.10pp

Possible next price: EVS

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

ManeuverDraw 4

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

Jockey: Robert Havlin

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer John & Thady Gosden (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 74/369; first seen between 10am and 1pm 32/369; first seen after 1pm 17/369.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 0 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.35pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 33/92 won (35.9%); Open→SP 34/93 won (36.6%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 48.8% (21/43).

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Runs: 0 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

17:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/2Market avg 5/2

5/2 ↓ 9/4 → 9/4 ↑ 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 ↓ 2/1 ↑ 9/4 ↑ 5/2 → 5/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.35pp (+1.2%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 1.2% • +0.35 probability points

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/4 3.75 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.35ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.35pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	5/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.35ppOpen → now	5/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.35pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Maneuver is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

Possible next price: 5/2

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Star MirageDraw 2

Trainer: Hamad Al Jehani

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Hamad Al Jehani (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 17/103; first seen between 10am and 1pm 8/103; first seen after 1pm 3/103.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.69pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run28 days ago · 4 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 3/1 | Avg: 3/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (33%)

17:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 7/2Market avg 7/2

7/2 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.69pp (-3.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 3 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 2nd at Kempton (AW) on 04 Sep 2026 (-0.71pp); and finished 7th at Kempton (AW) on 26 Aug 2026 (-0.76pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.2% • -0.69 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Kempton (AW), 26 Aug 2026 — 7th • open 10/1 → final 11/1 (-0.76pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/2 5.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	7/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.69ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.69pp
Kempton (AW)04 Sep 20261m · Class 3 · Standard / Slow · 4 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/3	-0.71ppOpen → 10am	10/3	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	10/3	+1.91pp1pm → SP	3/1	2nd	+1.19pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	7/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.69ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.69pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

2 of 3 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 3 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Star Mirage is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Kempton (AW) · 04 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Kempton (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Standard / Slow×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.69pp

Possible next price: 7/2

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Always SunnyDraw 6

Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Simon & Ed Crisford (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 37/278; first seen between 10am and 1pm 26/278; first seen after 1pm 20/278.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 0 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.11pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 17/60 won (28.3%); Open→SP 15/64 won (23.4%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 26.3% (5/19).

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Runs: 0 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

17:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 9/1

9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 17/2 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 17/2 ↑ 9/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.11pp (+1.0%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 1% • +0.11 probability points

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/1 10 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.11ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.11pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.11ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.11pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Always Sunny is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

Possible next price: 9/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Walk In ProvenceDraw 3

Trainer: Charlie Johnston

Jockey: Connor Beasley

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Charlie Johnston (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 71/702; first seen between 10am and 1pm 46/702; first seen after 1pm 25/702.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.48pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: 17/2 → 17/2 | Avg: 17/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

17:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 12/1

11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.48pp (-6.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.2% • -0.48 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous open-to-final drift in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.48ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.48pp
Redcar09 Sep 20267f 219y · Class 4 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	+4.24ppOpen → 10am	13/2	-3.33pp10am → 1pm	9/1	+0.53pp1pm → SP	17/2	2nd	+1.44pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.48ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.48pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Walk In Provence is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 09 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.48pp

Possible next price: 10/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Lazy In RedDraw 5

Trainer: Donald Whillans

Jockey: Greg Fairley

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Donald Whillans (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/76; first seen between 10am and 1pm 11/76; first seen after 1pm 3/76.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.14pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 4/12 won (33.3%); Open→SP 4/14 won (28.6%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (2/5).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 3.2f from last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

17:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 100/1Market avg 100/1

100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 ↓ 100/1 ↑ 100/1 → 100/1 ↑ 100/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.14pp (+17.7%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 17.7% • +0.14 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 151 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.14ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.14pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.14ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.14pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 3 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Lazy In Red is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.14pp

Possible next price: 100/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 6 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 6 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

18:15Newcastle (AW) • 6f • Class 4 • Going: Standard

12 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

AsheyraDraw 8

Trainer: Roger Varian

Jockey: Jack Mitchell

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Roger Varian (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 74/323; first seen between 10am and 1pm 24/323; first seen after 1pm 18/323.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +2.66pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 34/83 won (41%); Open→SP 37/93 won (39.8%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40.7% (22/54).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: 4/1 → 4/1 | Avg: 4/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened EVSMarket avg 10/11

10/11 → 10/11 → 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ EVS ↓ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ 11/10 ↓ 5/6 ↑ 10/11

PRICE MOVE

+2.66pp (+5.0%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.1% • +2.66 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Ascot, 05 Sep 2026 — 2nd • open 4/1 → final 4/1 (+0.77pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/10 2.1 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	EVS	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+2.66ppOpen → now	10/11Current; SP pending	Pending	+2.66pp
Ascot05 Sep 20266f · Class 2 · Good To Firm · 4 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+2.99ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-2.22pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-1.82pp1pm → SP	9/2	2nd	-1.05pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	EVS	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+2.66ppOpen → now	10/11Current; SP pending	Pending	+2.66pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 2 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Asheyra is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ascot · 05 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Ascot✓Trip (within ½f): 6f×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 2

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +2.66pp

Possible next price: 10/11

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

High ThresholdDraw 10

Trainer: Archie Watson

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Archie Watson (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 30/370; first seen between 10am and 1pm 20/370; first seen after 1pm 8/370.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 0 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +1.42pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 12/41 won (29.3%); Open→SP 10/42 won (23.8%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 27.8% (5/18).

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Runs: 0 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 3/1Market avg 11/4

11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 ↑ 3/1 ↓ 11/4 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2 ↑ 11/4 ↑ 3/1

PRICE MOVE

+1.42pp (+5.4%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.4% • +1.42 probability points

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/3 4.33 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	3/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+1.42ppOpen → now	11/4Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.42pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	3/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+1.42ppOpen → now	11/4Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.42pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: High Threshold is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

Possible next price: 10/3

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

PrincelandDraw 12

Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

Jockey: Robert Havlin

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Simon & Ed Crisford (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 37/278; first seen between 10am and 1pm 26/278; first seen after 1pm 20/278.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.63pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 17/60 won (28.3%); Open→SP 15/64 won (23.4%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 26.3% (5/19).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run47 days ago · 16 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 4/1Market avg 4/1

4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 4/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.63pp (+3.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.1% • +0.63 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.63ppOpen → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.63pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.63ppOpen → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.63pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 3 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Princeland is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.63pp

Possible next price: 9/2

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

HunstantonDraw 6

Trainer: George Boughey

Jockey: Jack Callan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer George Boughey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 79/417; first seen between 10am and 1pm 23/417; first seen after 1pm 12/417.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.03pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 29/83 won (34.9%); Open→SP 28/79 won (35.4%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 42.5% (17/40).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run8 days ago · 24 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 11/1

11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 11/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.03pp (+0.3%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.3% • +0.03 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Southwell (AW), 24 Sep 2026 — 9th • open 7/2 → final 3/1 (+2.78pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal BetWright

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.03ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.03pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.03ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.03pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Hunstanton is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.03pp

Possible next price: 11/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

MollishaDraw 11

Trainer: Brian Ellison

Jockey: Joanna Mason

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Brian Ellison (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 32/351; first seen between 10am and 1pm 23/351; first seen after 1pm 14/351.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +1.07pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 7/50 won (14%); Open→SP 6/47 won (12.8%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 16.7% (1/6).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run13 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening, but similar moves have not converted well before.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 16/1Market avg 14/1

14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 ↓ 12/1 ↑ 14/1 → 14/1 ↓ 12/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 12/1 ↑ 14/1

PRICE MOVE

+1.07pp (+15.3%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.

Raw Open → Now price change: 15.3% • +1.07 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Chester, 19 Sep 2026 — 4th • open 9/2 → final 10/3 (+4.23pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+1.07ppOpen → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.07pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+1.07ppOpen → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.07pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Mollisha is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Chester, 19 Sep 2026 — 4th • open 9/2 → 1pm 3/1 → final 10/3

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +1.07pp

Possible next price: 14/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Big TribeDraw 5

Trainer: Michael Appleby

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Michael Appleby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 53/438; first seen between 10am and 1pm 21/438; first seen after 1pm 17/438.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 0 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.25pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 13/63 won (20.6%); Open→SP 13/65 won (20%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 32.4% (11/34).

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Runs: 0 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 16/1Market avg 16/1

16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 ↑ 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 12/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 18/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.25pp (+4.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.1% • +0.25 probability points

BEST FIXED ODDS

18/1 19 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.25ppOpen → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.25pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.25ppOpen → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.25pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Big Tribe is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

Possible next price: 20/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

KnightboltDraw 9

Trainer: Kevin Ryan

Jockey: Shane Gray

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Kevin Ryan (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 42/440; first seen between 10am and 1pm 31/440; first seen after 1pm 9/440.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.12pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 22/65 won (33.8%); Open→SP 22/56 won (39.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 60% (15/25).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run49 days ago · 14 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 16/1Market avg 16/1

16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 16/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.12pp (+2.0%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 2% • +0.12 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

16/1 17 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.12ppOpen → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.12pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.12ppOpen → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.12pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Knightbolt is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.12pp

Possible next price: 16/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Espresso BreezeDraw 7

Trainer: Bryan Smart

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Bryan Smart (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 16/139; first seen between 10am and 1pm 10/139; first seen after 1pm 4/139.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.10pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 6/21 won (28.6%); Open→SP 4/20 won (20%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (2/5).

⬆ CLASS RISE

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run16 days ago · 16 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1f from last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 20/1Market avg 20/1

20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 20/1 → 20/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 22/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 20/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.10pp (+2.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.1% • +0.10 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

22/1 23 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	20/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.10ppOpen → now	20/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.10pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	20/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.10ppOpen → now	20/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.10pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Espresso Breeze is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.10pp

Possible next price: 20/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Val De GreyDraw 13

Trainer: Simon Waugh

Jockey: Connor Beasley

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Simon Waugh (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/33; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/33; first seen after 1pm 1/33.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 0 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.37pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/3 won (0%); Open→SP 0/4 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Runs: 0 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 33/1Market avg 33/1

33/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1 → 33/1 ↓ 25/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.37pp (+11.8%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 11.8% • +0.37 probability points

BEST FIXED ODDS

33/1 36 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	33/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.37ppOpen → now	33/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.37pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	33/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.37ppOpen → now	33/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.37pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Val De Grey is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

Possible next price: 40/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

SpruceDraw 3

Trainer: Grant Tuer

Jockey: Oliver Stammers

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Grant Tuer (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 21/187; first seen between 10am and 1pm 11/187; first seen after 1pm 7/187.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.05pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 7/28 won (25%); Open→SP 5/28 won (17.9%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 33.3% (4/12).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run94 days ago · 30 Jun 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 100/1Market avg 100/1

100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 ↓ 80/1 ↑ 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 ↑ 100/1 ↓ 80/1 ↑ 100/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.05pp (+5.0%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 5% • +0.05 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 126 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.05ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.05pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.05ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.05pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 3 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Spruce is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.05pp

Possible next price: 100/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

AughavannonDraw 1

Trainer: Simon Waugh

Jockey: Harry Russell

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Simon Waugh (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/33; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/33; first seen after 1pm 1/33.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.05pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/3 won (0%); Open→SP 0/4 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

⬆ CLASS RISE

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run16 days ago · 16 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1f from last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 100/1Market avg 100/1

100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 ↓ 80/1 ↑ 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 ↑ 100/1 ↓ 80/1 ↑ 100/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.05pp (+5.0%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 5% • +0.05 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 126 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.05ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.05pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.05ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.05pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Aughavannon is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.05pp

Possible next price: 100/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Five Star GeorgeDraw 4

Trainer: Julie Camacho

Jockey: Ryan Sexton

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Julie Camacho (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 30/285; first seen between 10am and 1pm 18/285; first seen after 1pm 9/285.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.11pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 12/41 won (29.3%); Open→SP 12/45 won (26.7%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (8/20).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1.1f from last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

18:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 100/1Market avg 100/1

100/1 → 100/1 ↓ 100/1 → 100/1 ↑ 100/1 ↓ 100/1 ↓ 100/1 ↑ 100/1 ↓ 100/1 ↑ 100/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.11pp (+17.8%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 17.8% • +0.11 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 201 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.11ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.11pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.11ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.11pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Five Star George is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.11pp

Possible next price: 100/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 12 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 12 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

18:45Newcastle (AW) • 7f14y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

13 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Finn IronsideDraw 8

Trainer: Ivan Furtado

Jockey: Elle-May Croot(5)

🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ivan Furtado (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 40/416; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/416; first seen after 1pm 13/416.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.00pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 8/54 won (14.8%); Open→SP 9/56 won (16.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 20.8% (5/24).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 15/2 | Avg: 11/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (44%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 3/1Market avg 3/1

3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 ↓ 11/4 ↑ 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 11/4 ↑ 3/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.00pp (+0.0%)

No meaningful price change from the open.

Move evidence

44th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE44th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 9 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 1st at Newcastle (AW) on 05 Sep 2026 (+0.30pp); finished 8th at Doncaster on 06 Jun 2026 (+3.90pp); finished 3rd at Doncaster on 24 Apr 2026 (+0.53pp); finished 4th at Newcastle (AW) on 12 Mar 2026 (+5.39pp); and finished 10th at Southwell (AW) on 05 Feb 2026 (+0.50pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0% • +0.00 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Doncaster, 06 Jun 2026 — 8th • open 6/1 → final 4/1 (+5.71pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/2 4.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	3/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.00ppOpen → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.00pp
Newcastle (AW)05 Sep 20267f 14y · Class 5 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	+0.30ppOpen → 10am	7/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	7/1	-0.74pp1pm → SP	15/2	1st	-0.43pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)31 Jul 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard / Slow · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/3	-0.87ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	7/2	+0.87pp1pm → SP	10/3	2nd	+0.00pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	3/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.00ppOpen → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.00pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Finn Ironside is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 05 Sep 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard×Class: Today Class 6 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +0.00pp

Possible next price: 3/1

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Newcastle (AW) stands at 2 placed efforts from 3 runs. Today's market is 57% shorter than usual compared with a long-term course average SP of 9.3.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Luminous WarriorDraw 3

Trainer: Christopher Kellett

Jockey: Jason Hart

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Christopher Kellett (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/58; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/58; first seen after 1pm 0/58.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/11; first seen after 1pm 0/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.54pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/1 won (100%); Open→SP 1/1 won (100%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: 8/11 → 16/1 | Avg: 7/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (36%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 5/1

5/1 ↓ 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.54pp (+3.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

36th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE36th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

7 of 11 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 2nd at Redcar on 09 Sep 2026 (+4.76pp); finished 2nd at Musselburgh on 25 Aug 2026 (+0.64pp); finished 1st at Yarmouth on 28 Jul 2026 (+16.67pp); finished 8th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 01 Jun 2026 (+2.31pp); finished 7th at Kempton (AW) on 06 May 2026 (+4.07pp); finished 12th at Kempton (AW) on 25 Feb 2026 (+1.79pp); and finished 7th at Chelmsford (AW) on 29 Jan 2026 (+3.90pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.1% • +0.54 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Yarmouth, 28 Jul 2026 — 1st • open 2/1 → final 8/11 (+24.47pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

13/2 7.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.54ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.54pp
Redcar09 Sep 20267f · Class 6 · Good · 15 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/2	+4.76ppOpen → 10am	5/1	-6.14pp10am → 1pm	17/2	-1.44pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	-2.81pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh25 Aug 20267f 15y · Class 6 · Good · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+0.64ppOpen → 10am	11/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/1	-3.99pp1pm → SP	22/1	2nd	-3.34pp
Post-race comment
Yarmouth05 Aug 20266f 3y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/8	-9.60ppOpen → 10am	5/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	5/2	-6.35pp1pm → SP	7/2	1st	-15.95pp
Post-race comment
Yarmouth28 Jul 20261m 3y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	2/1	+16.67ppOpen → 10am	EVS	+9.88pp10am → 1pm	4/6	+0.00pp1pm → SP	4/6	1st	+26.55pp
Post-race comment
Yarmouth02 Jul 20261m 3y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	-8.24ppOpen → 10am	15/2	+4.90pp10am → 1pm	5/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	5/1	2nd	-3.33pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.54ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.54pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

7 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Luminous Warrior is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 09 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +0.54pp

Possible next price: 9/2

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Cable BeachDraw 11

Trainer: Tom Tate

Jockey: Andrew Elliott

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tom Tate (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 7/26; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/26; first seen after 1pm 1/26.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

Most often first apparent by 10am in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.72pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run36 days ago · 27 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 11/4 → 11/4 | Avg: 11/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (60%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 11/2

11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.72pp (-4.5%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Jun 2026 (-13.24pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.5% • -0.72 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 02 Jun 2026 — 7th • open 3/1 → final 7/1 (-12.50pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.72ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.72pp
Southwell (AW)27 Aug 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+10.54ppOpen → 10am	11/4	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-1.67pp1pm → SP	3/1	2nd	+8.87pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.72ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.72pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Cable Beach is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 27 Aug 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.72pp

Possible next price: 9/2

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
This horse is 0/3 at Newcastle (AW) on our records. Today's market is 18% shorter than usual against an average course SP of 7.7.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Victory SoundDraw 7

Trainer: Mark Usher

Jockey: Connor Beasley

🟢 Needs Support (17%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Mark Usher (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 19/180; first seen between 10am and 1pm 7/180; first seen after 1pm 7/180.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.15pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 6/22 won (27.3%); Open→SP 8/24 won (33.3%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run9 days ago · 23 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 13/8 → 4/1 | Avg: 11/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (33%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/2Market avg 11/2

11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↑ 11/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.15pp (+1.0%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 9 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 1st at Newcastle (AW) on 03 Sep 2026 (+8.59pp); finished 2nd at Lingfield (AW) on 18 Aug 2026 (+5.55pp); and finished 3rd at Ffos Las on 29 Jun 2026 (+6.67pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 1% • +0.15 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Newcastle (AW), 03 Sep 2026 — 1st • open 5/2 → final 13/8 (+10.25pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

13/2 7.5 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	11/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.15ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.15pp
Newcastle (AW)03 Sep 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/2	+8.59ppOpen → 10am	7/4	+1.66pp10am → 1pm	13/8	-4.69pp1pm → SP	2/1	1st	+5.56pp
Post-race comment
Lingfield (AW)18 Aug 20267f 1y · Class 6 · Standard · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/2	+5.55ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-0.87pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-2.22pp1pm → SP	4/1	2nd	+2.46pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	11/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.15ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.15pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 3 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Victory Sound is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 03 Sep 2026 · 1st · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held or strengthened.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Both previous top-two finishes came with support of 2.45pp+.

At 2.45pp+: 2/3 finished 1st or 2nd (67%).

Today: +0.15pp — trigger not reached.

Possible next price: 6/1

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Spartan FighterDraw 6

Trainer: Antony Brittain

Jockey: Cam Hardie

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Antony Brittain (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 12/206; first seen between 10am and 1pm 9/206; first seen after 1pm 6/206.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.07pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 9/4 → 80/1 | Avg: 16/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 13/2Market avg 13/2

13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.07pp (-0.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

63th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE63rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Newcastle (AW) on 06 Mar 2026 (-4.12pp); finished 2nd at Newcastle (AW) on 04 Feb 2026 (-3.03pp); and finished 1st at Newcastle (AW) on 10 Jan 2026 (-3.57pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.6% • -0.07 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 04 Feb 2026 — 2nd • open 7/4 → final 5/1 (-19.70pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/1 8 decimal Hollywood Bets

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.07ppOpen → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.07pp
Newcastle (AW)05 Sep 20267f 14y · Class 5 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	100/1	+0.97ppOpen → 10am	50/1	-0.47pp10am → 1pm	66/1	-0.26pp1pm → SP	80/1	1st	+0.24pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)10 Feb 20266f · Class 5 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/1	+1.10ppOpen → 10am	11/2	+6.84pp10am → 1pm	7/2	+0.00pp1pm → SP	7/2	1st	+7.94pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)04 Feb 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/4	-3.03ppOpen → 10am	2/1	-13.33pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-7.50pp1pm → SP	7/1	2nd	-23.86pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)20 Jan 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/4	+2.75ppOpen → 10am	5/2	-4.41pp10am → 1pm	3/1	+3.57pp1pm → SP	5/2	1st	+1.90pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)10 Jan 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/2	-3.57ppOpen → 10am	3/1	-1.91pp10am → 1pm	10/3	+5.48pp1pm → SP	5/2	1st	+0.00pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)01 Jan 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/2	+1.82ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+8.57pp10am → 1pm	5/2	+3.48pp1pm → SP	2/1	1st	+13.87pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.07ppOpen → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.07pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 3 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Spartan Fighter is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 05 Sep 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard×Class: Today Class 6 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.07pp

Possible next price: 13/2

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Course record
Previous course evidence shows 6 placed efforts from 8 runs at Newcastle (AW). Compared with an average course SP of 17.1, today's price is 56% shorter than usual.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

PalmarianDraw 5

Trainer: Ruth Carr

Jockey: James Sullivan

🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ruth Carr (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 60/444; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/444; first seen after 1pm 16/444.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/12; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/12; first seen after 1pm 0/12.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.49pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 12 | Fixed-odds range: 6/1 → 7/1 | Avg: 13/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (25%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 15/2Market avg 8/1

8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.49pp (-4.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 12 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 10th at Hamilton on 02 Sep 2026 (-0.66pp); finished 8th at Doncaster on 23 Jul 2026 (-2.78pp); finished 5th at Redcar on 07 May 2026 (-1.49pp); and finished 7th at Southwell (AW) on 02 Apr 2026 (-4.71pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.4% • -0.49 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Southwell (AW), 02 Apr 2026 — 7th • open 14/1 → final 66/1 (-5.17pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

8/1 9 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.49ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.49pp
Doncaster18 Jul 20267f 213y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	4/1	-4.62pp10am → 1pm	11/2	-7.05pp1pm → SP	11/1	2nd	-8.33pp
Post-race comment
Leicester04 Jul 20261m 53y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/2	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	11/2	-1.10pp10am → 1pm	6/1	-0.95pp1pm → SP	13/2	1st	-2.05pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	15/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.49ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.49pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 4 of 12 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Palmarian is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Doncaster · 18 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Doncaster×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 7f 213y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.49pp

Possible next price: 8/1

12 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Why BecauseDraw 1

Trainer: Paul Midgley

Jockey: Oisin McSweeney

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Paul Midgley (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 31/243; first seen between 10am and 1pm 14/243; first seen after 1pm 7/243.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.25pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run18 days ago · 14 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (50%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 8/1Market avg 8/1

17/2 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 → 8/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.25pp (-2.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

6 of 6 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Thirsk on 14 Sep 2026 (-0.76pp); finished 5th at Carlisle on 19 Aug 2026 (-2.80pp); finished 5th at Newcastle (AW) on 31 Jul 2026 (-1.11pp); finished 7th at Doncaster on 03 Jul 2026 (-0.62pp); finished 4th at Catterick on 21 May 2026 (-0.92pp); and finished 6th at Redcar on 30 Apr 2026 (-6.59pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.3% • -0.25 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Redcar, 30 Apr 2026 — 6th • open 6/1 → final 14/1 (-7.62pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/1 10 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.25ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.25pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.25ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.25pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

6 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Why Because is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.25pp

Possible next price: 8/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Age of BaroqueDraw 4

Trainer: Jessica Macey

Jockey: Oliver Stammers

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jessica Macey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 13/148; first seen between 10am and 1pm 6/148; first seen after 1pm 8/148.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.28pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 11/1 → 11/1 | Avg: 11/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 8/1Market avg 8/1

17/2 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1 → 8/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 8/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.28pp (-2.5%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Doncaster on 15 Aug 2026 (-0.91pp); finished 5th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 18 May 2026 (-3.21pp); finished 4th at Southwell (AW) on 25 Apr 2026 (-0.91pp); finished 9th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 20 Mar 2026 (-5.56pp); and finished 8th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 17 Feb 2026 (-10.89pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.5% • -0.28 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 20 Mar 2026 — 9th • open 5/1 → final 12/1 (-8.97pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/1 12 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.28ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.28pp
Doncaster06 Jun 20267f 6y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	14/1	+3.86ppOpen → 10am	17/2	-2.19pp10am → 1pm	11/1	+0.76pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	+2.42pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	8/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.28ppOpen → now	8/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.28pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Age of Baroque is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Doncaster · 06 Jun 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Doncaster✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.28pp

Possible next price: 8/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Just Queen HighDraw 13

Trainer: Ian Williams

Jockey: Jack Callan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ian Williams (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 66/593; first seen between 10am and 1pm 45/593; first seen after 1pm 21/593.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.02pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run30 days ago · 2 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Best at SP (60%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 9/1

9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.02pp (-0.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Kempton (AW) on 02 Sep 2026 (-1.12pp); finished 9th at Epsom on 01 Jul 2026 (-2.80pp); finished 10th at Pontefract on 08 Jun 2026 (-3.34pp); finished 9th at Leicester on 13 Apr 2026 (-4.44pp); and finished 14th at Doncaster on 29 Mar 2026 (-8.15pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.2% • -0.02 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Doncaster, 29 Mar 2026 — 14th • open 7/1 → final 28/1 (-9.05pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/1 11 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.02ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.02pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.02ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.02pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Just Queen High is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.02pp

Possible next price: 9/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

SurprisedDraw 9

Trainer: Bryan Smart

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Bryan Smart (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 16/139; first seen between 10am and 1pm 10/139; first seen after 1pm 4/139.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.03pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run18 days ago · 14 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (50%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 12/1Market avg 12/1

12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.03pp (-0.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

6 of 6 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 10th at Thirsk on 14 Sep 2026 (-5.15pp); finished 7th at Southwell (AW) on 05 Jul 2026 (-1.40pp); finished 8th at Carlisle on 08 Jun 2026 (-6.42pp); finished 3rd at Carlisle on 18 May 2026 (-3.73pp); finished 6th at Catterick on 11 May 2026 (-2.82pp); and finished 10th at Beverley on 23 Apr 2026 (-4.24pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.3% • -0.03 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Thirsk, 14 Sep 2026 — 10th • open 17/2 → final 28/1 (-6.97pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	12/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.03ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.03pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	12/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.03ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.03pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

6 of 6 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Surprised is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.03pp

Possible next price: 12/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Secret RoadDraw 10

Trainer: Samantha & Jacqueline Coward

Jockey: David Allan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Samantha & Jacqueline Coward (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/24; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/24; first seen after 1pm 0/24.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/13; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/13; first seen after 1pm 0/13.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.04pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/2 won (50%); Open→SP 1/2 won (50%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run24 days ago · 8 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 13 | Fixed-odds range: 4/6 → 13/2 | Avg: 5/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (31%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 40/1Market avg 40/1

40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.04pp (+1.4%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

85th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE85th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

2 of 13 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 1st at Lingfield (AW) on 10 Jan 2026 (+4.08pp); and finished 1st at Wolverhampton (AW) on 06 Jan 2026 (+12.90pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 1.4% • +0.04 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Wolverhampton (AW), 06 Jan 2026 — 1st • open 15/8 → final 4/5 (+20.83pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

40/1 41 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	40/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.04ppOpen → now	40/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.04pp
Lingfield (AW)05 Mar 20261m 1y · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/2	-3.90ppOpen → 10am	6/1	+1.34pp10am → 1pm	11/2	-3.12pp1pm → SP	7/1	1st	-5.68pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)17 Jan 20261m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/8	-8.68ppOpen → 10am	2/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	2/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	2/1	2nd	-8.68pp
Post-race comment
Chelmsford (AW)11 Jan 20267f · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/4	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	11/4	+1.90pp10am → 1pm	5/2	-3.57pp1pm → SP	3/1	2nd	-1.67pp
Post-race comment
Lingfield (AW)10 Jan 20267f 1y · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	8/15	+4.08ppOpen → 10am	4/9	-9.56pp10am → 1pm	4/6	+6.79pp1pm → SP	1/2	1st	+1.31pp
Post-race comment
Wolverhampton (AW)06 Jan 20266f 20y · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/8	+12.90ppOpen → 10am	11/10	+10.18pp10am → 1pm	8/11	+13.63pp1pm → SP	2/5	1st	+36.71pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	40/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.04ppOpen → now	40/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.04pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 13 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Secret Road is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Chelmsford (AW) · 11 Jan 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Chelmsford (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +0.04pp

Possible next price: 40/1

13 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

SadiikiDraw 2

Trainer: Fred Watson

Jockey: Rhys Elliott(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Fred Watson (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.02pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run29 days ago · 3 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 80/1Market avg 80/1

80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1 ↓ 66/1 ↑ 80/1 → 80/1 → 80/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.02pp (-1.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 1.4% • -0.02 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 03 Sep 2026 — 7th • open 4/1 → final 66/1 (-19.34pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 101 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	80/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.02ppOpen → now	80/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.02pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	80/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.02ppOpen → now	80/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.02pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Sadiiki is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.02pp

Possible next price: 80/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Aurora's DoublesixDraw 12

Trainer: Brian Rothwell

Jockey: Faye McManoman

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Brian Rothwell (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/43; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/43; first seen after 1pm 0/43.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/12; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/12; first seen after 1pm 0/12.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.02pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/0 won (0%); Open→SP 0/0 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run7 days ago · 25 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 12 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Late money horse (42%)

18:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 100/1Market avg 100/1

100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 → 100/1 ↑ 100/1 ↓ 100/1 → 100/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.02pp (+2.4%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 12 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 11th at Newcastle (AW) on 25 Sep 2026 (+0.24pp); finished 5th at Catterick on 26 Aug 2026 (+0.33pp); finished 9th at Wetherby on 15 Jun 2026 (+0.47pp); and finished 4th at Doncaster on 25 Apr 2026 (+0.17pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.4% • +0.02 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Doncaster, 25 Apr 2026 — 4th • open 100/1 → final 100/1 (+0.07pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 126 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.02ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.02pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners	100/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.02ppOpen → now	100/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.02pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 4 of 12 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Aurora's Doublesix is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This early support is unusual; the price has often drifted again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

12 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.02pp

Possible next price: 100/1

12 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
This horse is 0/3 at Newcastle (AW) on our records. Today's market is 41% shorter than usual against an average course SP of 167.7.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 13 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 13 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

19:15Newcastle (AW) • 7f14y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

14 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Soul WarriorDraw 3

Trainer: Nigel Tinkler

Jockey: Alex Jary(3)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Nigel Tinkler (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 30/325; first seen between 10am and 1pm 13/325; first seen after 1pm 11/325.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.76pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run9 days ago · 23 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 8/1 → 8/1 | Avg: 8/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (25%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 10/3Market avg 7/2

10/3 ↑ 7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3

PRICE MOVE

-0.76pp (-3.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

63th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE63rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 8th at Thirsk on 07 Aug 2026 (-1.97pp); finished 5th at Ayr on 20 Jul 2026 (-8.72pp); and finished 8th at Newcastle (AW) on 21 Mar 2026 (-4.04pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.4% • -0.76 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ayr, 20 Jul 2026 — 5th • open 11/2 → final 18/1 (-10.12pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

4/1 5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	10/3	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.76ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.76pp
Redcar23 Sep 20267f · Class 6 · Good · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	13/2	-2.22pp10am → 1pm	8/1	+0.65pp1pm → SP	15/2	1st	-1.57pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	10/3	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.76ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.76pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 3 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Soul Warrior is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 23 Sep 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Redcar✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Redcar, 09 Sep 2026 — 7th • open 18/1 → 10am 17/2 → final 11/1
Doncaster, 14 Jun 2026 — 10th • open 20/1 → 10am 17/2 → final 18/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.76pp

Possible next price: 10/3

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

LanarraDraw 9

Trainer: R. Mike Smith

Jockey: James Sullivan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer R. Mike Smith (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/17; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/17; first seen after 1pm 0/17.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.95pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run24 days ago · 8 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 33/1 | Avg: 18/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (71%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/2Market avg 5/1

9/2 ↑ 5/1 → 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.95pp (-5.5%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

71th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE71st HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 7 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Ayr on 20 Jul 2026 (-7.05pp); and finished 2nd at Catterick on 21 May 2026 (-8.32pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.5% • -0.95 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ayr, 20 Jul 2026 — 4th • open 11/2 → final 16/1 (-9.50pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.95ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.95pp
Catterick26 Aug 20267f 6y · Class 6 · Good · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	17/2	+9.36ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	4/1	+2.22pp1pm → SP	7/2	1st	+11.58pp
Post-race comment
Catterick21 May 20265f 212y · Class 6 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/2	-8.32ppOpen → 10am	28/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	28/1	-0.51pp1pm → SP	33/1	2nd	-8.82pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.95ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.95pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Lanarra is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Catterick · 26 Aug 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Catterick✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.95pp

Possible next price: 4/1

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Trucial PearlDraw 14

Trainer: Michael & David Easterby

Jockey: Joanna Mason

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Michael & David Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 54/498; first seen between 10am and 1pm 30/498; first seen after 1pm 16/498.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/11; first seen after 1pm 0/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.35pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run32 days ago · 31 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 2.7f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 14/1 | Avg: 17/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (45%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/2Market avg 11/2

11/2 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.35pp (-2.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

55th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE55th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Musselburgh on 25 Aug 2026 (-4.39pp); finished 3rd at Catterick on 21 May 2026 (-3.33pp); finished 5th at Doncaster on 02 May 2026 (-5.56pp); finished 6th at Pontefract on 07 Apr 2026 (-2.80pp); and finished 2nd at Chelmsford (AW) on 12 Mar 2026 (-4.81pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.3% • -0.35 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Musselburgh, 25 Aug 2026 — 4th • open 3/1 → final 13/2 (-11.06pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

13/2 7.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.35ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.35pp
Ripon18 Jun 20261m · Class 6 · Good · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/2	+0.87ppOpen → 10am	10/3	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	10/3	+0.00pp1pm → SP	10/3	1st	+0.87pp
Post-race comment
Chelmsford (AW)12 Mar 20267f · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	-4.81ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+1.40pp10am → 1pm	10/1	-1.40pp1pm → SP	12/1	2nd	-4.81pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.35ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.35pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 5 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Trucial Pearl is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Chelmsford (AW) · 12 Mar 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Chelmsford (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.35pp

Possible next price: 11/2

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Territorial StarDraw 6

Trainer: Rebecca Menzies

Jockey: Ethan Tindall(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Rebecca Menzies (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 26/337; first seen between 10am and 1pm 12/337; first seen after 1pm 7/337.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.12pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 9/28 won (32.1%); Open→SP 10/35 won (28.6%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run13 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (40%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 13/2Market avg 13/2

13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 13/2 → 13/2 ↓ 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 ↑ 13/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.12pp (+0.9%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 5th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 08 May 2026 (+5.23pp); and finished 6th at Newcastle (AW) on 20 Apr 2026 (+7.50pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.9% • +0.12 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Newcastle (AW), 20 Apr 2026 — 6th • open 7/1 → final 4/1 (+7.50pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/1 8 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.12ppOpen → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.12pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	13/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.12ppOpen → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.12pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Territorial Star is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.12pp

Possible next price: 13/2

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Course record
Course evidence at Newcastle (AW) is limited (2 runs without making the frame). Today's market is 41% shorter than usual against an average course SP profile of 12.5.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Ice ShowDraw 8

Trainer: David O'Meara

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer David O'Meara (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 67/720; first seen between 10am and 1pm 52/720; first seen after 1pm 31/720.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.36pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run55 days ago · 8 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (40%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 7/1Market avg 7/1

7/1 ↑ 15/2 → 15/2 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.36pp (-3.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Redcar on 08 Aug 2026 (-2.80pp); and finished 5th at Hamilton on 27 May 2026 (-3.07pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3% • -0.36 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Hamilton, 27 May 2026 — 5th • open 11/1 → final 25/1 (-4.49pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

17/2 9.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	7/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.36ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.36pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	7/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.36ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.36pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Ice Show is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.36pp

Possible next price: 7/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Dream ForeverDraw 11

Trainer: Jedd O'Keeffe

Jockey: Jack Garritty

🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jedd O'Keeffe (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 9/88; first seen between 10am and 1pm 4/88; first seen after 1pm 1/88.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.07pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 4/10 won (40%); Open→SP 3/9 won (33.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (2/5).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.2f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Early PM

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 17/2 → 33/1 | Avg: 20/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Mid-market mover (25%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 9/1

9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 17/2 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 → 17/2 ↑ 9/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.07pp (+0.6%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 8 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 12th at Redcar on 07 May 2026 (+0.78pp); and finished 13th at Pontefract on 07 Apr 2026 (+2.50pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.6% • +0.07 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Redcar, 07 May 2026 — 12th • open 16/1 → final 14/1 (+0.78pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/1 11 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.07ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.07pp
Newcastle (AW)03 Sep 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	-6.12ppOpen → 10am	6/1	-2.52pp10am → 1pm	15/2	+0.74pp1pm → SP	7/1	2nd	-7.91pp
Post-race comment
Carlisle19 Aug 20265f 182y · Class 6 · Soft · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	-14.02ppOpen → 10am	28/1	+0.62pp10am → 1pm	25/1	-0.90pp1pm → SP	33/1	1st	-14.30pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)10 Feb 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	12/1	-1.03pp10am → 1pm	14/1	-1.40pp1pm → SP	18/1	2nd	-2.43pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.07ppOpen → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.07pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Dream Forever is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 03 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 6f✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +0.07pp

Possible next price: 9/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course record of 2/3 at Newcastle (AW). The average SP at this course is 12.7 and today's market has the horse trading 22% shorter than usual.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

SonbelievableDraw 10

Trainer: Joseph Parr

Jockey: Jack Mitchell

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Joseph Parr (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 11/103; first seen between 10am and 1pm 11/103; first seen after 1pm 0/103.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.52pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run77 days ago · 17 Jul 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Best at SP (67%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 10/1

9/1 ↑ 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.52pp (-5.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 3 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 8th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 17 Jul 2026 (-4.03pp); and finished 9th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 28 Jun 2026 (-1.01pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.4% • -0.52 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 17 Jul 2026 — 8th • open 18/1 → final 100/1 (-4.77pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/1 12 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.52ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.52pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

2 of 3 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 4 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Sonbelievable is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.52pp

Possible next price: 8/1

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Forever TwentyDraw 12

Trainer: Ivan Furtado

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ivan Furtado (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 40/416; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/416; first seen after 1pm 13/416.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/11; first seen after 1pm 1/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.57pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run16 days ago · 16 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1.4f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Late money horse (27%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/1Market avg 10/1

9/1 ↑ 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.57pp (-6.1%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 6th at Beverley on 16 Sep 2026 (-2.42pp); finished 9th at Thirsk on 16 Jul 2026 (-3.21pp); finished 10th at Doncaster on 14 Jun 2026 (-5.23pp); and finished 7th at Newcastle (AW) on 13 Apr 2026 (-5.73pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.1% • -0.57 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Doncaster, 14 Jun 2026 — 10th • open 8/1 → final 18/1 (-5.85pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/1 11 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.57ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.57pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	9/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.57ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.57pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 4 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Forever Twenty is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Redcar, 18 May 2026 — 6th • open 7/1 → 1pm 3/1 → final 7/2

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

11 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.57pp

Possible next price: 8/1

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
This horse is 0/2 at Newcastle (AW) on our records. Today's market is 20% shorter than usual against an average course SP of 13.3.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Elias EscapeDraw 13

Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey

Jockey: Cam Hardie

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 76/608; first seen between 10am and 1pm 28/608; first seen after 1pm 15/608.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.04pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run14 days ago · 18 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (75%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 10/1Market avg 10/1

10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↑ 10/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.04pp (-0.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 4 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 8th at Beverley on 16 Jun 2026 (-0.73pp); finished 8th at Doncaster on 16 May 2026 (-1.71pp); and finished 5th at Redcar on 30 Apr 2026 (-5.23pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.4% • -0.04 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Redcar, 30 Apr 2026 — 5th • open 8/1 → final 25/1 (-7.26pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	10/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.04ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.04pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	10/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.04ppOpen → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.04pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Elias Escape is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.04pp

Possible next price: 10/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Claytons KolatonicDraw 2

Trainer: Dominic Ffrench Davis

Jockey: Sam James

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Dominic Ffrench Davis (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/93; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/93; first seen after 1pm 2/93.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.06pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/3 won (0%); Open→SP 1/5 won (20%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run19 days ago · 13 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 3.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (33%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 11/1

11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 ↑ 11/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.06pp (+0.7%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

78th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE78th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 9 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 5th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 07 Sep 2026 (+1.11pp); and finished 6th at Chelmsford (AW) on 12 Feb 2026 (+1.89pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.7% • +0.06 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Wolverhampton (AW), 07 Sep 2026 — 5th • open 9/1 → final 8/1 (+1.11pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.06ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.06pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.06ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.06pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Claytons Kolatonic is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

9 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.06pp

Possible next price: 11/1

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Diamond AuraDraw 4

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Jockey: David Allan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 151/1143; first seen between 10am and 1pm 66/1143; first seen after 1pm 34/1143.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.46pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run16 days ago · 16 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1.4f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 33/1 → 33/1 | Avg: 33/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (38%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 12/1

11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.46pp (-5.8%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

13th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE13th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

7 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Beverley on 16 Sep 2026 (-2.14pp); finished 9th at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Sep 2026 (-3.33pp); finished 6th at Redcar on 08 Aug 2026 (-1.88pp); finished 4th at Redcar on 19 Jul 2026 (-0.74pp); finished 2nd at Leicester on 04 Jul 2026 (-30.89pp); finished 4th at Brighton on 22 Jun 2026 (-8.97pp); and finished 5th at Chepstow on 29 May 2026 (-1.82pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.8% • -0.46 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Leicester, 04 Jul 2026 — 2nd • open 2/1 → final 33/1 (-30.39pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

14/1 15 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.46ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.46pp
Leicester04 Jul 20261m 2f · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	2/1	-30.89ppOpen → 10am	40/1	+1.01pp10am → 1pm	28/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	28/1	2nd	-29.89pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.46ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.46pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

7 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Diamond Aura is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Leicester · 04 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Leicester×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 14y · previous 1m 2f×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.46pp

Possible next price: 10/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Tago MagoDraw 1

Trainer: Sam England

Jockey: P. J. McDonald

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Sam England (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 34/275; first seen between 10am and 1pm 21/275; first seen after 1pm 13/275.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.26pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 14/50 won (28%); Open→SP 16/52 won (30.8%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 31.8% (7/22).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run25 days ago · 7 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1.6f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (40%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 33/1Market avg 33/1

33/1 → 33/1 → 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1 → 33/1 ↓ 25/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.26pp (+8.7%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 5 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 8.7% • +0.26 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

33/1 36 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	33/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.26ppOpen → now	33/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.26pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	33/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.26ppOpen → now	33/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.26pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 5 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. Today’s move: Tago Mago is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This early support is unusual; the price has often drifted again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.26pp

Possible next price: 40/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Lady GreyDraw 5

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Jockey: Duran Fentiman

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 151/1143; first seen between 10am and 1pm 66/1143; first seen after 1pm 34/1143.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.07pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 45/186 won (24.2%); Open→SP 47/195 won (24.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 34.1% (29/85).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run41 days ago · 22 Aug 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (25%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 40/1Market avg 40/1

40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 ↓ 33/1 ↑ 40/1 → 40/1 ↓ 33/1 ↑ 50/1 ↓ 33/1 ↑ 40/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.07pp (+2.7%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

Only 1 of 4 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 14th at Redcar on 22 Aug 2026 (+2.14pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 2.7% • +0.07 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

50/1 51 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	40/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.07ppOpen → now	40/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.07pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	40/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.07ppOpen → now	40/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.07pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Lady Grey is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.07pp

Possible next price: 40/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Nefyn QueenDraw 7

Trainer: Stephen Hanlon

Jockey: Oliver Stammers

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Stephen Hanlon (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 13/94; first seen between 10am and 1pm 5/94; first seen after 1pm 6/94.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.09pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 3/16 won (18.8%); Open→SP 2/15 won (13.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 16.7% (1/6).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run30 days ago · 2 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 3.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (50%)

19:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 50/1Market avg 50/1

50/1 → 50/1 → 50/1 ↓ 40/1 ↑ 50/1 → 50/1 ↓ 40/1 ↑ 50/1 ↓ 40/1 ↑ 50/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.09pp (+4.3%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

Only 1 of 4 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 11th at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Sep 2026 (+0.84pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.3% • +0.09 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Newcastle (AW), 02 Sep 2026 — 11th • open 40/1 → final 33/1 (+0.56pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

50/1 51 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	50/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.09ppOpen → now	50/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.09pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners	50/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.09ppOpen → now	50/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.09pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Nefyn Queen is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.09pp

Possible next price: 50/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 14 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 14 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

19:45Newcastle (AW) • 1m5y • Class 6 • Going: Standard

6 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

IzzariDraw 4

Trainer: Iain Jardine

Jockey: Cara Tuke(7)

🟢 Needs Support (33%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Iain Jardine (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 45/472; first seen between 10am and 1pm 26/472; first seen after 1pm 9/472.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/9; first seen after 1pm 1/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.30pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/60 won (25%); Open→SP 11/54 won (20.4%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 26.1% (6/23).

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run6 days ago · 26 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 10/3 → 4/1 | Avg: 7/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (22%)

19:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 15/8Market avg 15/8

15/8 → 15/8 → 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 → 15/8 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8

PRICE MOVE

+0.30pp (+0.9%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

44th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE44th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 9 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 1st at Southwell (AW) on 26 Sep 2026 (+3.33pp); finished 8th at Southwell (AW) on 31 Aug 2026 (+3.33pp); finished 2nd at Carlisle on 11 Aug 2026 (+7.50pp); finished 9th at Newcastle (AW) on 25 Jul 2026 (+2.82pp); and finished 4th at Newcastle (AW) on 27 Mar 2026 (+0.78pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.9% • +0.30 probability points

Built 00:00 → 05:03

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Carlisle, 11 Aug 2026 — 2nd • open 7/1 → final 10/3 (+10.59pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

2/1 3 decimal BetMGM

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	15/8	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.30ppOpen → now	15/8Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.30pp
Southwell (AW)26 Sep 20261m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	5/1	+1.52pp10am → 1pm	9/2	+0.00pp1pm → SP	9/2	1st	+4.85pp
Post-race comment
Carlisle11 Aug 20267f 173y · Class 6 · Good · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	+7.50ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+3.09pp10am → 1pm	10/3	+0.00pp1pm → SP	10/3	2nd	+10.59pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	15/8	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.30ppOpen → now	15/8Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.30pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Izzari is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 26 Sep 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Both previous top-two finishes came with support of 6.66pp+.

At 6.66pp+: 2/2 finished 1st or 2nd (100%).

Today: +0.30pp — trigger not reached.

Possible next price: 15/8

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
This horse is 0/2 at Newcastle (AW) on our records. Today's market is 84% shorter than usual against an average course SP of 18.0.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

King SharjaDraw 5

Trainer: Ruth Carr

Jockey: James Sullivan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ruth Carr (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 60/444; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/444; first seen after 1pm 16/444.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 3/11; first seen after 1pm 0/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.27pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run8 days ago · 24 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: 13/8 → 12/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (36%)

19:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/4Market avg 3/1

11/4 ↑ 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 ↓ 11/4 → 11/4 ↑ 3/1 → 3/1

PRICE MOVE

-1.27pp (-5.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 5th at Musselburgh on 31 Jul 2026 (-1.79pp); finished 10th at Beverley on 03 Jul 2026 (-4.81pp); finished 2nd at Carlisle on 29 May 2026 (-1.97pp); and finished 11th at Southwell (AW) on 28 Apr 2026 (-3.42pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5% • -1.27 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Southwell (AW), 24 Sep 2026 — 1st • open 3/1 → final 4/1 (-5.00pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

3/1 4 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	11/4	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.27ppOpen → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.27pp
Southwell (AW)24 Sep 20261m 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	3/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	3/1	-2.78pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-2.22pp1pm → SP	4/1	1st	-5.00pp
Post-race comment
Wolverhampton (AW)18 Sep 20267f 36y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/2	+7.79ppOpen → 10am	7/4	-1.64pp10am → 1pm	15/8	+3.45pp1pm → SP	13/8	1st	+9.60pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh12 Sep 20261m 2y · Class 6 · Good · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+6.09ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-4.04pp10am → 1pm	9/2	+0.00pp1pm → SP	9/2	1st	+2.05pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)27 Aug 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	+3.51ppOpen → 10am	5/1	-1.28pp10am → 1pm	11/2	-1.10pp1pm → SP	6/1	2nd	+1.13pp
Post-race comment
Carlisle29 May 20266f 195y · Class 6 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	-1.97ppOpen → 10am	17/2	-2.83pp10am → 1pm	12/1	+0.64pp1pm → SP	11/1	2nd	-4.17pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)21 May 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+3.09pp10am → 1pm	10/3	+0.00pp1pm → SP	10/3	2nd	+6.43pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	11/4	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.27ppOpen → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.27pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 4 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: King Sharja is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 24 Sep 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held or strengthened.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -1.27pp

Possible next price: 3/1

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Jamaican StormDraw 1

Trainer: Bryan Smart

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Bryan Smart (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 16/139; first seen between 10am and 1pm 10/139; first seen after 1pm 4/139.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/11; first seen after 1pm 0/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.87pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 6/21 won (28.6%); Open→SP 4/20 won (20%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (2/5).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: 4/1 → 11/2 | Avg: 9/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (45%)

19:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/2Market avg 4/1

9/2 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.87pp (+4.5%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

82th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE82nd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

2 of 11 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 6th at Carlisle on 15 Jun 2026 (+3.90pp); and finished 3rd at Carlisle on 29 May 2026 (+8.97pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 4.5% • +0.87 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Carlisle, 29 May 2026 — 3rd • open 12/1 → final 5/1 (+8.97pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

5/1 6 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.87ppOpen → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.87pp
Newcastle (AW)05 Sep 20267f 14y · Class 5 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	-1.28ppOpen → 10am	11/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/2	+0.00pp1pm → SP	11/2	2nd	-1.28pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)31 Jul 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard / Slow · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/2	-2.80ppOpen → 10am	11/2	+4.62pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-1.82pp1pm → SP	9/2	1st	+0.00pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)27 Mar 20261m 5y · Class 5 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	-1.82ppOpen → 10am	9/2	+1.82pp10am → 1pm	4/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	4/1	1st	+0.00pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)13 Mar 20261m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/2	-7.94ppOpen → 10am	6/1	+5.71pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-1.82pp1pm → SP	9/2	2nd	-4.04pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.87ppOpen → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.87pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Jamaican Storm is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 27 Mar 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y✓Ground: Standard×Class: Today Class 6 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +0.87pp

Possible next price: 4/1

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
At Newcastle (AW) this horse has recorded 3 placed efforts from 4 runs. The current market is 34% shorter than usual against an average course SP profile of 8.0.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

CoramentoDraw 6

Trainer: Ray Craggs

Jockey: Connor Beasley

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ray Craggs (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/12; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/12; first seen after 1pm 0/12.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.71pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/0 won (0%); Open→SP 0/0 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 17/2 → 17/2 | Avg: 17/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (40%)

19:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/2Market avg 9/2

9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 9/2

PRICE MOVE

+0.71pp (+3.8%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 6th at Southwell (AW) on 23 Jan 2026 (+1.52pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.8% • +0.71 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Newcastle (AW), 31 Jul 2026 — 1st • open 12/1 → final 17/2 (+2.83pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/2 5.5 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.71ppOpen → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.71pp
Newcastle (AW)31 Jul 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard / Slow · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+0.64ppOpen → 10am	11/1	+2.78pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-1.11pp1pm → SP	9/1	1st	+2.31pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.71ppOpen → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.71pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Coramento is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 31 Jul 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 5y · previous 7f 14y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Standard / Slow✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +0.71pp

Possible next price: 5/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Newcastle (AW) stands at 1 placed effort from 4 runs. Today's market is 30% shorter than usual compared with a long-term course average SP of 7.6.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Beauty GenerationDraw 2

Trainer: Ross Burdon

Jockey: Jason Hart

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ross Burdon (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 14/98; first seen between 10am and 1pm 15/98; first seen after 1pm 5/98.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/8; first seen after 1pm 1/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.98pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run52 days ago · 11 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 2.2f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 6/1 → 11/1 | Avg: 17/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (50%)

19:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 5/1Market avg 11/2

11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.98pp (-6.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 2nd at Nottingham on 11 Aug 2026 (-3.33pp); and finished 7th at Kempton (AW) on 07 Jan 2026 (-1.40pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.3% • -0.98 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Leicester, 25 Apr 2026 — 4th • open 4/1 → final 17/2 (-9.47pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal 7Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.98ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.98pp
Nottingham11 Aug 20261m 2f 50y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	-3.33ppOpen → 10am	13/2	-2.22pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-2.02pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	-7.58pp
Post-race comment
Nottingham02 Jul 20261m 2f 50y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	+1.44ppOpen → 10am	17/2	+2.81pp10am → 1pm	13/2	-1.57pp1pm → SP	15/2	1st	+2.67pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	5/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.98ppOpen → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.98pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Beauty Generation is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Nottingham · 11 Aug 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Nottingham×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 5y · previous 1m 2f 50y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.98pp

Possible next price: 11/2

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Relevant RangeDraw 3

Trainer: Ivan Furtado

Jockey: Elle-May Croot(5)

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ivan Furtado (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 40/416; first seen between 10am and 1pm 22/416; first seen after 1pm 13/416.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/15; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/15; first seen after 1pm 0/15.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.40pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 15 | Fixed-odds range: 5/4 → 11/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (20%)

19:45Newcastle (AW)

Opened 16/1Market avg 18/1

18/1 ↓ 16/1 ↑ 18/1 ↓ 16/1 → 16/1 ↑ 18/1 → 18/1 ↑ 22/1 ↓ 16/1 → 16/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.40pp (-7.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

27th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE27th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

11 of 15 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 11th at Southwell (AW) on 31 Aug 2026 (-0.74pp); finished 4th at Nottingham on 30 Jul 2026 (-2.22pp); finished 1st at Doncaster on 18 Jul 2026 (-28.06pp); finished 6th at Kempton (AW) on 08 Jul 2026 (-2.38pp); finished 2nd at Musselburgh on 22 Jun 2026 (-0.91pp); finished 8th at Doncaster on 25 Apr 2026 (-1.90pp); finished 10th at Doncaster on 28 Mar 2026 (-5.10pp); finished 4th at Southwell (AW) on 13 Mar 2026 (-2.52pp); finished 3rd at Southwell (AW) on 04 Mar 2026 (-4.29pp); finished 6th at Newcastle (AW) on 31 Jan 2026 (-4.10pp); and finished 1st at Newcastle (AW) on 24 Jan 2026 (-2.43pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 7.4% • -0.40 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Doncaster, 18 Jul 2026 — 1st • open 15/8 → final 11/1 (-26.39pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

22/1 23 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.40ppOpen → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.40pp
Doncaster18 Jul 20267f 213y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/8	-28.06ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+1.67pp10am → 1pm	11/1	+2.78pp1pm → SP	8/1	1st	-23.61pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh22 Jun 20261m 2y · Class 6 · Good · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/1	-0.91ppOpen → 10am	10/1	+3.41pp10am → 1pm	7/1	+0.83pp1pm → SP	13/2	2nd	+3.33pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)24 Jan 20261m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/4	-2.43ppOpen → 10am	11/8	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/8	-2.02pp1pm → SP	6/4	1st	-4.44pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)17 Jan 20261m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/8	+10.73ppOpen → 10am	6/5	+4.55pp10am → 1pm	EVS	-4.55pp1pm → SP	6/5	1st	+10.73pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)10 Jan 20261m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/4	-2.20ppOpen → 10am	5/2	+9.45pp10am → 1pm	13/8	+0.15pp1pm → SP	13/8	2nd	+7.40pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today1m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners	16/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.40ppOpen → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.40pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

11 of 15 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Relevant Range is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 24 Jan 2026 · 1st · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 5y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Wolverhampton (AW), 19 Jan 2026 — 3rd • open 11/8 → 1pm EVS → final 11/10
Southwell (AW), 17 Jan 2026 — 1st • open 15/8 → 1pm EVS → final 5/4

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.40pp

Possible next price: 14/1

15 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Newcastle (AW) stands at 1 placed effort from 3 runs. Today's market is 188% bigger than usual compared with a long-term course average SP of 6.3.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 6 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 6 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

20:15Newcastle (AW) • 6f • Class 6 • Going: Standard

10 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Get Up EverybodyDraw 10

Trainer: Paul Midgley

Jockey: David Nolan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Paul Midgley (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 31/243; first seen between 10am and 1pm 14/243; first seen after 1pm 7/243.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 2/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.04pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 6/37 won (16.2%); Open→SP 6/39 won (15.4%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run13 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 5/1 → 5/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (75%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 3/1Market avg 3/1

3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 ↓ 11/4 ↑ 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 ↑ 10/3 ↓ 11/4 ↑ 3/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.04pp (+0.2%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 8 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 4th at Newcastle (AW) on 19 Sep 2026 (+6.31pp); finished 5th at Doncaster on 03 Jul 2026 (+7.71pp); finished 7th at Carlisle on 29 May 2026 (+0.87pp); finished 4th at Redcar on 18 May 2026 (+0.95pp); and finished 3rd at Pontefract on 07 Apr 2026 (+4.27pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.2% • +0.04 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Newcastle (AW), 19 Sep 2026 — 4th • open 5/2 → final EVS (+21.83pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/3 4.33 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	3/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.04ppOpen → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.04pp
Newcastle (AW)20 Aug 20266f · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/2	-0.34ppOpen → 10am	9/2	+4.04pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-4.04pp1pm → SP	9/2	1st	-0.34pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	3/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.04ppOpen → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.04pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Get Up Everybody is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 20 Aug 2026 · 1st · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 6f✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +0.04pp

Possible next price: 3/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
This runner has made the frame 1 times from 2 starts at Newcastle (AW). Historical course average SP is 3.8, while today's market is close to its historical average.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Blazing SonDraw 3

Trainer: Bryan Smart

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Bryan Smart (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 16/139; first seen between 10am and 1pm 10/139; first seen after 1pm 4/139.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.21pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 6/21 won (28.6%); Open→SP 4/20 won (20%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (2/5).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run27 days ago · 5 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 8/1 → 8/1 | Avg: 8/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (30%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 7/2Market avg 7/2

7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3

PRICE MOVE

+0.21pp (+0.9%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 10 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 8th at Newcastle (AW) on 05 Sep 2026 (+3.42pp); finished 10th at Southwell (AW) on 23 Jul 2026 (+1.40pp); finished 3rd at Southwell (AW) on 05 Jul 2026 (+1.11pp); finished 2nd at Newcastle (AW) on 06 Mar 2026 (+0.83pp); and finished 5th at Newcastle (AW) on 29 Dec 2025 (+12.50pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.9% • +0.21 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Newcastle (AW), 29 Dec 2025 — 5th • open 7/1 → final 10/3 (+10.59pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

4/1 5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	7/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.21ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.21pp
Newcastle (AW)06 Mar 20267f 14y · Class 5 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	+0.83ppOpen → 10am	13/2	-2.22pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-1.11pp1pm → SP	9/1	2nd	-2.50pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	7/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.21ppOpen → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.21pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 10 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Blazing Son is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 06 Mar 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 6f · previous 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard×Class: Today Class 6 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Newcastle (AW), 29 Dec 2025 — 5th • open 7/1 → 10am 3/1 → final 10/3

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

10 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +0.21pp

Possible next price: 10/3

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
At Newcastle (AW) this horse has recorded 1 placed effort from 4 runs. The current market is 60% shorter than usual against an average course SP profile of 11.3.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Mayo CountyDraw 6

Trainer: Julie Camacho

Jockey: Ryan Sexton

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Julie Camacho (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 30/285; first seen between 10am and 1pm 18/285; first seen after 1pm 9/285.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.03pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run23 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 11/4 → 12/1 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (50%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 4/1Market avg 9/2

9/2 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 9/2

PRICE MOVE

-1.03pp (-5.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

70th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE70th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 10 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Doncaster on 06 Jun 2026 (-2.80pp); finished 5th at Newcastle (AW) on 14 Feb 2026 (-4.17pp); and finished 3rd at Southwell (AW) on 23 Jan 2026 (-4.17pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.4% • -1.03 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 29 Dec 2025 — 2nd • open 7/1 → final 12/1 (-4.81pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

5/1 6 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.03ppOpen → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.03pp
Redcar25 May 20267f · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+6.67ppOpen → 10am	11/4	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-1.67pp1pm → SP	3/1	1st	+5.00pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)29 Dec 20256f · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	+9.72ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-12.22pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-0.91pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	-3.41pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	4/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-1.03ppOpen → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.03pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 3 of 10 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Mayo County is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 29 Dec 2025 · 2nd · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 6f✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -1.03pp

Possible next price: 5/1

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course record of 1/3 at Newcastle (AW). The average SP at this course is 11.3 and today's market has the horse trading 53% shorter than usual.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Dance FantasyDraw 8

Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

Jockey: Jack Mitchell

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Simon & Ed Crisford (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 37/278; first seen between 10am and 1pm 26/278; first seen after 1pm 20/278.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.98pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run20 days ago · 12 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Mid

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (75%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 9/2Market avg 5/1

5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2

PRICE MOVE

-0.98pp (-5.7%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

Only 1 of 4 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Kempton (AW) on 02 Mar 2026 (-8.33pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.7% • -0.98 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Kempton (AW), 02 Mar 2026 — 4th • open 3/1 → final 9/1 (-15.00pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

5/1 6 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.98ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.98pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	9/2	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.98ppOpen → now	5/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.98pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Dance Fantasy is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.98pp

Possible next price: 4/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Men of HonourDraw 2

Trainer: Ruth Carr

Jockey: James Sullivan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ruth Carr (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 60/444; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/444; first seen after 1pm 16/444.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.19pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run13 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Early money horse (14%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 7/1Market avg 7/1

7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.19pp (-1.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

29th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE29th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

5 of 7 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 5th at Redcar on 22 Aug 2026 (-1.71pp); finished 9th at Thirsk on 01 Jul 2026 (-0.50pp); finished 6th at Doncaster on 20 Jun 2026 (-0.92pp); finished 9th at Ripon on 03 Jun 2026 (-3.83pp); and finished 9th at Doncaster on 16 May 2026 (-2.93pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 1.6% • -0.19 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ripon, 03 Jun 2026 — 9th • open 10/1 → final 18/1 (-3.83pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

17/2 9.5 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	7/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.19ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.19pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	7/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.19ppOpen → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.19pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

5 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Men of Honour is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Newcastle (AW), 19 Sep 2026 — 7th • open 9/1 → 1pm 9/2 → final 6/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

7 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.19pp

Possible next price: 7/1

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Coulsty ExchangeDraw 7

Trainer: Iain Jardine

Jockey: Andrew Mullen

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Iain Jardine (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 45/472; first seen between 10am and 1pm 26/472; first seen after 1pm 9/472.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.03pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/60 won (25%); Open→SP 11/54 won (20.4%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 26.1% (6/23).

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run233 days ago · 11 Feb 2026

Distance changeDown 2f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (67%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 11/1

11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 10/1 ↑ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.03pp (+0.3%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 3 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.3% • +0.03 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Dundalk (AW) (IRE), 30 Jan 2026 — 3rd • open 12/1 → final 13/2 (+5.64pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Midnite

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.03ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.03pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.03ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.03pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 3 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. Today’s move: Coulsty Exchange is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This early support is unusual; the price has often drifted again later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.03pp

Possible next price: 11/1

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

PockleyDraw 5

Trainer: Linda Perratt

Jockey: David Allan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Linda Perratt (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 16/188; first seen between 10am and 1pm 8/188; first seen after 1pm 5/188.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 1 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.03pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run15 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1f from last run

Runs: 1 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

Limited data: this is based on one previous run, so it is not a proven pattern yet.

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 11/1

11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.03pp (-0.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 0.3% • -0.03 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ayr, 17 Sep 2026 — 20th • open 28/1 → final 100/1 (-2.46pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.03ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.03pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.03ppOpen → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.03pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Pockley is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

1 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.03pp

Possible next price: 11/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Bellagio ManDraw 4

Trainer: Antony Brittain

Jockey: Cam Hardie

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Antony Brittain (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 12/206; first seen between 10am and 1pm 9/206; first seen after 1pm 6/206.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.41pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run37 days ago · 26 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 11/1Market avg 12/1

12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.41pp (-5.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.2% • -0.41 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 01 May 2026 — 10th • open 12/1 → final 33/1 (-4.75pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.41ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.41pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	11/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.41ppOpen → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.41pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Bellagio Man is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.41pp

Possible next price: 10/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Newcastle (AW). Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Brazen IdolDraw 1

Trainer: John Ryan

Jockey: Stevie Donohoe

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer John Ryan (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 11/92; first seen between 10am and 1pm 5/92; first seen after 1pm 4/92.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.00pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 1/13 won (7.7%); Open→SP 2/15 won (13.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 14.3% (1/7).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run24 days ago · 8 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 22/1 | Avg: 12/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Best at SP (43%)

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 14/1Market avg 14/1

14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 ↓ 12/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.00pp (+0.0%)

No meaningful price change from the open.

Move evidence

71th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE71st HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 2nd at Ffos Las on 23 Jun 2026 (+16.43pp); and finished 7th at Lingfield on 06 Jun 2026 (+0.64pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 0% • +0.00 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Ffos Las, 23 Jun 2026 — 2nd • open 14/1 → final 3/1 (+18.33pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

16/1 17 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	14/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.00ppOpen → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.00pp
Ffos Las23 Jun 20265f · Class 5 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	14/1	+16.43ppOpen → 10am	10/3	+3.57pp10am → 1pm	11/4	+0.00pp1pm → SP	11/4	2nd	+20.00pp
Post-race comment
Kempton (AW)18 Mar 20266f · Class 5 · Standard To Slow · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	-4.74ppOpen → 10am	22/1	+0.92pp10am → 1pm	18/1	+0.62pp1pm → SP	16/1	2nd	-3.21pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	14/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	+0.00ppOpen → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.00pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Brazen Idol is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Kempton (AW) · 18 Mar 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Newcastle (AW) · previous Kempton (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 6f×Ground: Today Standard · previous Standard To Slow×Class: Today Class 6 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +0.00pp

Possible next price: 14/1

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

N/A

Cape SovereignDraw 9

Trainer: Rebecca Menzies

Jockey: Ethan Tindall(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Rebecca Menzies (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 26/337; first seen between 10am and 1pm 12/337; first seen after 1pm 7/337.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.68pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Market Form rating50/100 · Neutral

Last run2 days ago · 30 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.

20:15Newcastle (AW)

Opened 18/1Market avg 20/1

22/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 22/1 ↓ 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 20/1 → 20/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.68pp (-14.9%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 14.9% • -0.68 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Carlisle, 09 Sep 2026 — 10th • open 14/1 → final 33/1 (-3.31pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

28/1 29 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	18/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.68ppOpen → now	20/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.68pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
Newcastle (AW)Today6f · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners	18/1	—No checkpoint	—	—No checkpoint	—	-0.68ppOpen → now	20/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.68pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Cape Sovereign is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.68pp

Possible next price: 20/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

N/A

Race market overview as at 05:16

Supported0 of 10 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting0 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

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