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LIVE MARKET PRESSURE ⓘ
Odds database updated: 08:06:06 • LIVE
Featured meeting preview: Carlisle
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🔥 BEST BACKED
Heathers Feather
04:55 Carlisle
+15.2% (19.000 → 16.12)
Strongest market support today
⭐ STRONG FAV
Yellow Diamonds
04:55 Carlisle
+12.9% (2.900 → 2.526)
Strong favourite being backed
⚠️ WEAK FAV
Hares Bredth
04:55 Carlisle
-22.4% (5.000 → 6.12)
Market weakness — confidence dropping
STRONGEST SUPPORT: Heathers Feather (15.2%) 04:55 Carlisle    WEAK FAVOURITE: Hares Bredth (-22.4%) 04:55 Carlisle | 4/1 5/1    ⚡ HORSES ARE BEING BACKED IN THE SAME WAY AS A PREVIOUS WIN!     ⚠️ EMERGING SET UP AND REPEAT WINNER SIGNALS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY     ⭐ LIVE TERMINAL NOW ORDERED BY RACE FAVOURITE                                                                                                                              
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Carlisle ✓Kempton (AW) 🔒Sligo 🔒Worcester 🔒York 🔒
ALLBACKED 💰DRIFTERS
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
04:55Carlisle • 5f182y • Class 6
8 runners
Market Intelligence
Strongest support: Heathers Feather (+0.94 probability points)
Weakest support: Northern Tempest (-4.47 probability points)

Trainer: Julie Camacho
Jockey: Ryan Sexton
Trainer market read
Today's move is +3.08pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 11/31 won (35.5%); Open→SP 11/36 won (30.6%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 47.1% (8/17).
↔ SAME CLASS
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 15/2 → 15/2 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.
Late money horse (40%)
04:55Carlisle
Opened 15/8Market avg 6/4
6/4 → 6/4 → 6/4 → 6/4 → 6/4 ↑ 13/8 → 13/8 → 13/8 → 13/8 ↑ 7/4
PRICE MOVE
+5.11pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 5 previous comparable moves was stronger.
Price change: 12.9% • +5.11 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
STEAM
BEST FIXED ODDS
7/4 2.75 decimal Betfred
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This early support is unusual; the price has often drifted again later. (moderate)
Possible next price: 15/8
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

Trainer: Nigel Tinkler
Jockey: Alex Jary(3)
Trainer market read
Today's move is +2.60pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 7/31 won (22.6%); Open→SP 11/42 won (26.2%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 33.3% (1/3).
↔ SAME CLASS
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 7/1 → 11/1 | Avg: 9/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (33%)
04:55Carlisle
Opened 9/2Market avg 4/1
4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 5/1
PRICE MOVE
+1.82pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 9 previous comparable moves was stronger.
Price change: 9.1% • +1.82 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/1 6 decimal Betfred
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Limited data: one similar run only.
Possible next price: 6/1
9 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Tim Easterby
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.75pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 27/133 won (20.3%); Open→SP 29/138 won (21%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 27% (17/63).
↔ SAME CLASS
Usually attracts bookmaker support
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: 9/4 → 9/4 | Avg: 9/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
AVOID
This horse is usually backed but is drifting today. That change is a warning sign.
Early money horse (50%)
04:55Carlisle
Opened 4/1Market avg 5/1
5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↑ 6/1
PRICE MOVE
-3.66pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
17th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 5 of 6 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 22.4% • -3.66 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
DRIFT
BEST FIXED ODDS
6/1 7 decimal BetMGM
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)
Possible next price: 13/2
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: John & Sean Quinn
Jockey: Dougie Costello
Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.38pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 5/22 won (22.7%); Open→SP 5/23 won (21.7%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 28.6% (2/7).
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.
Early money horse (50%)
04:55Carlisle
Opened 5/1Market avg 6/1
6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 ↑ 13/2
PRICE MOVE
-1.94pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 4 of 4 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 13.2% • -1.94 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
13/2 7.5 decimal BetMGM
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)
Possible next price: 7/1
4 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Michael Dods
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.80pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 8/44 won (18.2%); Open→SP 9/51 won (17.6%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 35% (7/20).
↔ SAME CLASS
Usually attracts bookmaker support
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
1 historical matches

0/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
AVOID
This horse is usually backed but is drifting today. That change is a warning sign.
Early money horse (50%)
04:55Carlisle
Opened 11/2Market avg 8/1
17/2 → 17/2 → 17/2 → 17/2 → 17/2 → 17/2 → 17/2 → 17/2 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1
PRICE MOVE
-4.47pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
17th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 5 of 6 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 40.9% • -4.47 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
DRIFT
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/1 10 decimal BetMGM
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)
Possible next price: 10/1
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Tracy Waggott
Jockey: Barry McHugh
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.79pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 2/8 won (25%); Open→SP 1/5 won (20%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 33.3% (1/3).
↔ SAME CLASS
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
1 historical matches

0/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Late PM
Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
The price is shortening, but similar moves have not converted well before.
Best at SP (50%)
04:55Carlisle
Opened 18/1Market avg 16/1
16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.94pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest comparable move in 4 previous runs.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Price change: 15.2% • +0.94 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
16/1 17 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)
Possible next price: 16/1
4 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Jedd O'Keeffe
Jockey: James Sullivan
Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.72pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 4/10 won (40%); Open→SP 3/9 won (33.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (2/5).
↔ SAME CLASS
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
3 historical matches

1/3 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Late PM
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 18/1 → 18/1 | Avg: 18/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
AVOID
The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.
Late money horse (40%)
04:55Carlisle
Opened 12/1Market avg 16/1
16/1 → 16/1 → 16/1 ↑ 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1
PRICE MOVE
-2.00pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
40th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 3 of 5 previous comparable moves were stronger.
When drifting like this: failed 2/3Historical Drift Profile

21 May 26 | Catterick | Open: 16/1 → Final: 33/1 | SP: 33/1 | Fin: 11
05 Mar 26 | Newcastle (AW) | Open: 11/2 → Final: 10/1 | SP: 10/1 | Fin: 4
10 Feb 26 | Newcastle (AW) | Open: 12/1 → Final: 18/1 | SP: 18/1 | Fin: 2
Price change: 35.3% • -2.00 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
DRIFT
BEST FIXED ODDS
18/1 19 decimal William Hill
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (moderate)
Possible next price: 18/1
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Micky Hammond
Jockey: Aiden Brookes
Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.41pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 3/27 won (11.1%); Open→SP 5/31 won (16.1%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 36.4% (4/11).
↔ SAME CLASS
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: 9/1 → 9/1 | Avg: 9/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (33%)
04:55Carlisle
Opened 16/1Market avg 18/1
18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1
PRICE MOVE
-0.48pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 3 of 6 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 8.9% • -0.48 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
18/1 19 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
Possible next price: 18/1
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Carlisle. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A
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