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LIVE MARKET PRESSURE ⓘ
Odds database updated: 06:47:18 • LIVE
Featured meeting preview: Carlisle
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🔥 BEST BACKED
Big Apple Jack
03:48 Carlisle
+14.1% (4.330 → 3.72)
Strongest market support today
STRONGEST SUPPORT: Big Apple Jack (14.1%) 03:48 Carlisle    ⚡ HORSES ARE BEING BACKED IN THE SAME WAY AS A PREVIOUS WIN!     ⚠️ EMERGING SET UP AND REPEAT WINNER SIGNALS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY     ⭐ LIVE TERMINAL NOW ORDERED BY RACE FAVOURITE                                                                                                                              
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Carlisle ✓Kempton (AW) 🔒Sligo 🔒Worcester 🔒York 🔒
ALLBACKED 💰DRIFTERS
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
03:48Carlisle • 6f195y • Class 6
9 runners
Market Intelligence
Strongest support: Big Apple Jack (+3.79 probability points)
Weakest support: Danrana (-0.40 probability points)
🟢 Needs Support (35%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

Trainer: Geoffrey Harker
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.15pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/6 won (0%); Open→SP 0/7 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
↔ SAME CLASS
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 11/8 → 6/1 | Avg: 10/3Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (40%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 9/4Market avg 9/4
9/4 → 9/4 → 9/4 → 9/4 → 9/4 → 9/4 → 9/4 → 9/4 → 9/4 → 9/4
PRICE MOVE
-0.15pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
40th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 3 of 5 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 0.5% • -0.15 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/2 3.5 decimal Bet365
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)
Possible next price: 9/4
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A
🟢 Needs Support (11%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

Trainer: Michael & David Easterby
Jockey: Billy Garritty
Trainer market read
Today's move is +3.71pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 10/58 won (17.2%); Open→SP 8/59 won (13.6%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (2/5).
↔ SAME CLASS
Usually attracts bookmaker support
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
1 historical matches

1/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 7/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
The price is shortening and the past evidence is positive.
Early money horse (67%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 10/3Market avg 11/4
11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 ↓ 5/2 → 5/2 ↑ 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4
PRICE MOVE
+3.79pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 2 of 6 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Price change: 14.1% • +3.79 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
STEAM
BEST FIXED ODDS
11/4 3.75 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)
Possible next price: 3/1
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey
Jockey: Ethan Tindall(5)
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.20pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/64 won (23.4%); Open→SP 17/57 won (29.8%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 30.4% (7/23).
↔ SAME CLASS
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: 14/1 → 20/1 | Avg: 16/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (100%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 7/2Market avg 7/2
7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3 ↑ 7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 7/2
PRICE MOVE
+0.17pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest comparable move in 3 previous runs.
Price change: 0.8% • +0.17 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
7/2 4.5 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)
Possible next price: 7/2
3 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Fionn McSharry
Jockey: Harry Russell
Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.40pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 2/8 won (25%); Open→SP 2/8 won (25%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 66.7% (2/3).
↔ SAME CLASS
Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
03:48Carlisle
Opened 6/1Market avg 6/1
6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 13/2
PRICE MOVE
-0.40pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
Price change: 2.9% • -0.40 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
13/2 7.5 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Limited data: one similar run only.
Possible next price: 7/1
No historical data
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Denis Coakley
Jockey: Sam James
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.00pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 2/14 won (14.3%); Open→SP 2/10 won (20%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 50% (2/4).
⬇ CLASS DROP
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Best at SP (50%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 15/2Market avg 15/2
15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 15/2
PRICE MOVE
+0.00pp
No meaningful price change.
50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 2 of 4 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 0% • +0.00 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
8/1 9 decimal BetMGM
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)
Possible next price: 15/2
4 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Sam England
Jockey: Shane Gray
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.11pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 11/40 won (27.5%); Open→SP 13/39 won (33.3%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 44.4% (4/9).
↔ SAME CLASS
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Late money horse (33%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 14/1Market avg 14/1
14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 ↓ 12/1 ↑ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.11pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest comparable move in 3 previous runs.
Price change: 1.6% • +0.11 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
14/1 15 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
Possible next price: 16/1
3 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Steph Hollinshead
Jockey: Tom Eaves
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.02pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 2/11 won (18.2%); Open→SP 2/10 won (20%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
↔ SAME CLASS
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (40%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 18/1Market avg 18/1
18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 ↓ 16/1 ↑ 18/1 → 18/1 ↓ 16/1 ↑ 18/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.04pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 5 previous comparable moves was stronger.
Price change: 0.8% • +0.04 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
20/1 21 decimal BetMGM
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)
Possible next price: 20/1
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A

Trainer: David & Nicola Barron
Jockey: William Pyle
Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.13pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 5/19 won (26.3%); Open→SP 5/27 won (18.5%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
↔ SAME CLASS
Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
03:48Carlisle
Opened 18/1Market avg 18/1
18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 ↑ 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1
PRICE MOVE
-0.13pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
Price change: 2.5% • -0.13 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
20/1 21 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
Possible next price: 22/1
No historical data
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Tim Easterby
Jockey: Oisin McSweeney
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.09pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 27/133 won (20.3%); Open→SP 29/138 won (21%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 27% (17/63).
↔ SAME CLASS
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (33%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 28/1Market avg 28/1
28/1 → 28/1 → 28/1 → 28/1 → 28/1 → 28/1 → 28/1 ↑ 33/1 → 33/1 → 33/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.09pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 2 of 6 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 2.7% • +0.09 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
33/1 34 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Limited data: one similar run only.
Possible next price: 40/1
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
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