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LIVE MARKET PRESSURE ⓘ
Odds database updated: 08:06:06 • LIVE
Featured meeting preview: Carlisle
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🔥 BEST BACKED
Big Apple Jack
03:48 Carlisle
+14.3% (4.330 → 3.71)
Strongest market support today
STRONGEST SUPPORT: Big Apple Jack (14.3%) 03:48 Carlisle    WEAK FAVOURITE: Hey Havana (-6.3%) 03:48 Carlisle | 9/4 5/2    ⚡ HORSES ARE BEING BACKED IN THE SAME WAY AS A PREVIOUS WIN!     ⚠️ EMERGING SET UP AND REPEAT WINNER SIGNALS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY     ⭐ LIVE TERMINAL NOW ORDERED BY RACE FAVOURITE                                                                                                                              
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Carlisle ✓Kempton (AW) 🔒Sligo 🔒Worcester 🔒York 🔒
ALLBACKED 💰DRIFTERS
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
03:48Carlisle • 6f195y • Class 6
9 runners
Market Intelligence
Strongest support: Big Apple Jack (+3.86 probability points)
Weakest support: Tago Mago (-1.38 probability points)
🟢 Needs Support (35%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

Trainer: Geoffrey Harker
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.11pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/6 won (0%); Open→SP 0/7 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
↔ SAME CLASS
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 11/8 → 6/1 | Avg: 10/3Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (40%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 9/4Market avg 5/2
5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2 → 5/2
PRICE MOVE
-1.82pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
20th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 4 of 5 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 6.3% • -1.82 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/2 3.5 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)
Possible next price: 5/2
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A
🟢 Needs Support (11%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

Trainer: Michael & David Easterby
Jockey: Billy Garritty
Trainer market read
Today's move is +3.86pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 10/58 won (17.2%); Open→SP 8/59 won (13.6%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 40% (2/5).
↔ SAME CLASS
Usually attracts bookmaker support
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
1 historical matches

1/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 7/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
The price is shortening and the past evidence is positive.
Early money horse (67%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 10/3Market avg 11/4
11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 → 11/4 ↑ 3/1
PRICE MOVE
+3.86pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 2 of 6 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Price change: 14.3% • +3.86 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
STEAM
BEST FIXED ODDS
3/1 4 decimal BetTom
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)
Possible next price: 10/3
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A
🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey
Jockey: Ethan Tindall(5)
Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.06pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/64 won (23.4%); Open→SP 17/57 won (29.8%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 30.4% (7/23).
↔ SAME CLASS
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: 14/1 → 20/1 | Avg: 16/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (100%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 7/2Market avg 7/2
7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 → 7/2 ↑ 4/1
PRICE MOVE
+0.10pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest comparable move in 3 previous runs.
Price change: 0.5% • +0.10 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
4/1 5 decimal Bet365
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)
Possible next price: 9/2
3 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Denis Coakley
Jockey: Sam James
Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.11pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 2/14 won (14.3%); Open→SP 2/10 won (20%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 50% (2/4).
⬇ CLASS DROP
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Best at SP (50%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 15/2Market avg 13/2
13/2 → 13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 ↑ 15/2 → 15/2 ↑ 8/1 → 8/1
PRICE MOVE
+1.22pp
Shortening: bookmaker support is increasing.
50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 2 of 4 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 9.4% • +1.22 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
8/1 9 decimal Spreadex
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)
Possible next price: 9/1
4 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Open was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Fionn McSharry
Jockey: Harry Russell
Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.16pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 2/8 won (25%); Open→SP 2/8 won (25%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 66.7% (2/3).
↔ SAME CLASS
Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.
03:48Carlisle
Opened 6/1Market avg 7/1
7/1 → 7/1 → 7/1 ↑ 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2 → 15/2
PRICE MOVE
-1.91pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
Price change: 15.4% • -1.91 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
DRIFT
BEST FIXED ODDS
15/2 8.5 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Limited data: one similar run only.
Possible next price: 15/2
No historical data
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Sam England
Jockey: Shane Gray
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.04pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 11/40 won (27.5%); Open→SP 13/39 won (33.3%).
Watch for 15pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 44.4% (4/9).
↔ SAME CLASS
Often drifts in the market
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
AVOID
The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.
Late money horse (33%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 14/1Market avg 18/1
20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1
PRICE MOVE
-1.38pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 2 of 3 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 26.1% • -1.38 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
DRIFT
BEST FIXED ODDS
20/1 21 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
Possible next price: 20/1
3 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Steph Hollinshead
Jockey: Tom Eaves
Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.04pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 2/11 won (18.2%); Open→SP 2/10 won (20%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
↔ SAME CLASS
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: 10am
Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
No clear bookmaker move yet.
Early money horse (40%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 18/1Market avg 20/1
20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1
PRICE MOVE
-0.39pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 5 previous comparable moves was stronger.
Price change: 8% • -0.39 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
N/A
BEST FIXED ODDS
20/1 21 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)
Possible next price: 20/1
5 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: David & Nicola Barron
Jockey: William Pyle
Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.50pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 5/19 won (26.3%); Open→SP 5/27 won (18.5%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.
↔ SAME CLASS
Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
AVOID
The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.
03:48Carlisle
Opened 18/1Market avg 22/1
25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1
PRICE MOVE
-1.04pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
Price change: 24.6% • -1.04 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
DRIFT
BEST FIXED ODDS
25/1 26 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
N/A
Possible next price: 25/1
No historical data
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A

Trainer: Tim Easterby
Jockey: Oisin McSweeney
Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.15pp (drifting). The first supported band is 5pp+.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 27/133 won (20.3%); Open→SP 29/138 won (21%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 27% (17/63).
↔ SAME CLASS
No consistent price pattern yet
📊 Market Behaviour Rating
Best Time: Pre-Off
Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.
WATCH
The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.
Early money horse (33%)
03:48Carlisle
Opened 28/1Market avg 33/1
40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1 → 40/1
PRICE MOVE
-0.50pp
Drifting: bookmaker support is weakening.
67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
Only 2 of 6 previous comparable moves were stronger.
Price change: 18.3% • -0.50 probability points
LIVE SIGNAL
DRIFT
BEST FIXED ODDS
40/1 41 decimal Paddy Power
WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT
Limited data: one similar run only.
Possible next price: 40/1
6 runs (Market Form)
TIMING & CONTEXT
Best time: Now was biggest
N/A
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