DC NETWORK · VARIANCE LAB
Losing Run
Reality
See the longest losing sequence a strategy can reasonably produce—even when its strike rate is genuine and nothing is broken.
YOUR STRATEGY
Set the sample
Use the long-term strike rate you genuinely expect—not the rate from a small hot run.
EXPECTED LONGEST LOSING RUN
losses
Across 100 bets at a 20% strike rate, planning for a losing sequence of roughly 16 is sensible.
VISUALISE THE RUN
What 16 straight losses feels like
Each red block represents one losing bet at a 1-unit stake.
VARIANCE SCHOOL
Three truths about losing runs
A larger sample gives variance more opportunities to produce an extreme sequence—even when the strike rate never changes.
Results cluster naturally. Review selection quality and price value, but never treat a single losing sequence as proof by itself.
If the expected losing run would force you to stop, the stake is too large. Plan for the harsh scenario, not the average afternoon.
Method: Uses an extreme-value approximation for the expected maximum losing run and a run-occurrence model for the planning range. Results are estimates, not guarantees; bets are assumed independent with a stable strike rate.
Educational variance tool only. It does not predict future results or prove profitability. Please gamble responsibly.