Live Horse Racing Market Movement

13:38Musselburgh • 5f1y • Class 4 • Going: Good To Soft

3 runners

Market Intelligence

Strongest support: Just For Monty (+0.64 probability points)

Weakest support: Sod Hall Lane (-29.17 probability points)

LAST 5 MINUTE MOVES

Just For Monty → 67 → 51 (23.9%)

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Full field shown.

Sod Hall LaneDraw 3

Trainer: Declan Carroll

Jockey: Zak Wheatley

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Declan Carroll (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 21/170; first seen between 10am and 1pm 5/170; first seen after 1pm 7/170.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -29.17pp, placing it in this yard's 20pp+ 10am drift comparison.
There are no recorded trainer runners in the matching 20pp+ 10am drift band.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (0 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run29 days ago · 2 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: 5/4 → 18/1 | Avg: 10/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.

13:38Musselburgh

Opened 1/7Market avg 8/11

1/7 → 1/7 ↓ 1/20 ↑ 1/14 ↑ 1/7 ↓ 1/10 ↑ 1/8 ↑ 1/7 ↓ 1/10 → 1/10

PRICE MOVE

-29.17pp (-49.8%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 49.8% • -29.17 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Musselburgh, 07 Aug 2026 — 2nd • open 12/1 → final 18/1 (-1.88pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

5/1 6 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 3 runners	1/7	+3.19ppOpen → 10am	1/10	+1.68pp10am → 1pm	1/12	-34.04pp1pm → now	8/11Current; SP pending	Pending	-29.17pp
Hamilton02 Sep 20265f 7y · Class 4 · Soft · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/5	+13.58ppOpen → 10am	4/6	-4.32pp10am → 1pm	4/5	-13.54pp1pm → SP	11/8	1st	-4.28pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh07 Aug 20265f 1y · Class 2 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+0.55ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+1.40pp10am → 1pm	10/1	-4.33pp1pm → SP	20/1	2nd	-2.38pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 3 runners	1/7	+3.19ppOpen → 10am	1/10	+1.68pp10am → 1pm	1/12	-34.04pp1pm → now	8/11Current; SP pending	Pending	-29.17pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READSIGNIFICANT MARKET DRIFT DETECTED

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The trainer’s drift record adds context: There are no recorded trainer runners in the matching 20pp+ 10am drift band. Today’s move: Sod Hall Lane has moved from 1/7 to 8/11, a significant drift (-29.17pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Hamilton · 02 Sep 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Hamilton✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Soft✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held or strengthened.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 2 top-two finishes.

Today: -29.17pp

Possible next price: 1/8

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

Easing off

Sable NoirDraw 1

Trainer: Kevin Ryan

Jockey: Kevin Stott

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Kevin Ryan (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 42/436; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/436; first seen after 1pm 8/436.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -3.34pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run38 days ago · 24 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.

13:38Musselburgh

Opened 10/3Market avg 4/1

4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 5/1

PRICE MOVE

-3.34pp (-16.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 16.3% • -3.34 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Catterick, 22 Jun 2026 — 8th • open 10/1 → final 40/1 (-6.65pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

6/1 7 decimal Betano

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 3 runners	10/3	-1.59ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-1.76pp1pm → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.34pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 3 runners	10/3	-1.59ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-1.76pp1pm → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.34pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Sable Noir is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -3.34pp

Possible next price: 6/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

Easing off

Just For MontyDraw 2

Trainer: Katie Scott

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Katie Scott (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 14/166; first seen between 10am and 1pm 7/166; first seen after 1pm 5/166.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 2 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +0.64pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 3/18 won (16.7%); Open→SP 3/20 won (15%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run93 days ago · 30 Jun 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Runs: 2 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

LAST MINUTE BACKING (23.9%)

13:38Musselburgh

Opened 66/1Market avg 50/1

40/1 ↑ 50/1 ↑ 66/1 ↓ 50/1 ↓ 33/1 ↑ 40/1 ↑ 66/1 ↓ 40/1 → 40/1 ↑ 50/1

PRICE MOVE

+0.64pp (+31.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 31.1% • +0.64 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

66/1 67 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 3 runners	66/1	+1.03ppOpen → 10am	40/1	+1.01pp10am → 1pm	28/1	-1.40pp1pm → now	50/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.64pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 3 runners	66/1	+1.03ppOpen → 10am	40/1	+1.01pp10am → 1pm	28/1	-1.40pp1pm → now	50/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+0.64pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Today’s move: Just For Monty is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

2 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +0.64pp

Possible next price: 66/1

2 similar runs — 0 placed.

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

Easing off

Race market overview as at 00:59

Supported0 of 3 runners at +4pp or more
Drifting1 of 3 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Sod Hall Lane -29.17pp
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

14:13Musselburgh • 1m208y • Class 4 • Going: Good To Soft

7 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

NostrumDraw 4

Trainer: Michael Appleby

Jockey: Alistair Rawlinson

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Michael Appleby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 52/436; first seen between 10am and 1pm 21/436; first seen after 1pm 17/436.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +20.83pp, placing it in this yard's 20pp+ band.
At 20pp+: Open→1PM 2/4 won (50%); Open→SP 2/4 won (50%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run12 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 2.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 15/2 → 15/2 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening, but similar moves have not converted well before.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

Late move vs early profile

14:13Musselburgh

Opened 5/1Market avg 13/8

13/8 ↓ 6/4 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 6/4 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 6/4 → 6/4 ↓ 4/6 ↑ 6/4 ↑ 15/8

PRICE MOVE

+20.83pp (+55.6%)

NR adjusted

Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: +57.2% • +22.32pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +1.49pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 10/3 @ 08:26

NR @ 08:26: 7/2 → 10/3 (+1.49pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +20.83pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 8 previous runs.

0/2 placed when backed like this (0%).

When backed like this: 0/2 WON

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Newmarket, 19 Sep 2026 — 5th • open 12/1 → final 6/1 (+6.88pp).

All 2 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

Newmarket, 19 Sep 2026 — 5th • open 12/1 → final 6/1
Newmarket (July), 25 Jun 2026 — 8th • open 11/1 → final 7/1

BEST FIXED ODDS

2/1 3 decimal BetTom

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	5/1	+18.21ppOpen → 10am	7/4	+1.80pp10am → 1pm	13/8	+0.82pp1pm → now	13/8Current; SP pending	Pending	+20.83ppNR adjusted
Sandown28 May 20261m · Class 3 · Good · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	17/2	+0.58ppOpen → 10am	8/1	-1.11pp10am → 1pm	9/1	+3.33pp1pm → SP	13/2	2nd	+2.81pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	5/1	+18.21ppOpen → 10am	7/4	+1.80pp10am → 1pm	13/8	+0.82pp1pm → now	13/8Current; SP pending	Pending	+20.83ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 8 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 2 runs. The trainer evidence is important here: At 20pp+: Open→1PM 2/4 won (50%); Open→SP 2/4 won (50%). Today’s move: Nostrum has shortened from 5/1 to 13/8, which is exceptional support (+20.83pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Sandown · 28 May 2026 · 2nd · 0/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Sandown×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 208y · previous 1m×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Newmarket, 19 Sep 2026 — 5th • open 12/1 → 1pm 4/1 → final 6/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +20.83pp

Gamble exhaustion: Moves of this size have usually been close to exhaustion; chasing the shortened price carries extra risk.

After a 15pp+ move: 37% shortened another 1pp • 29% another 2pp • 21% another 3pp • 11% another 5pp (n=712)

Possible next price: 9/4

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

WalsinghamDraw 7

Trainer: David O'Meara

Jockey: Kevin Stott

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer David O'Meara (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 67/717; first seen between 10am and 1pm 52/717; first seen after 1pm 31/717.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +4.28pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 21/102 won (20.6%); Open→SP 25/115 won (21.7%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 30.8% (12/39).

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run14 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 0.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

1 historical matches

1/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: 10am

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 5/2 → 5/2 | Avg: 5/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening and the past evidence is positive.

10am plunger

Early money horse (33%)

14:13Musselburgh

Opened 5/2Market avg 15/8

15/8 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↓ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 15/8 → 15/8 → 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 9/4

PRICE MOVE

+4.28pp (+13.0%)

NR adjusted

Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: +19.6% • +6.97pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +2.68pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 2/1 @ 08:26

NR @ 08:26: 9/4 → 2/1 (+2.68pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +4.28pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 9 previous runs.

Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.

Built 14:10 → 14:17

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Beverley, 30 Aug 2026 — 8th • open 10/1 → final 11/2 (+6.29pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/4 3.25 decimal 10 Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	5/2	+6.77ppOpen → 10am	13/8	-4.69pp10am → 1pm	2/1	+2.20pp1pm → now	15/8Current; SP pending	Pending	+4.28ppNR adjusted
Pontefract29 Apr 20261m 6y · Class 4 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	3/1	+1.67ppOpen → 10am	11/4	-4.44pp10am → 1pm	7/2	+8.55pp1pm → SP	9/4	1st	+5.77pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	5/2	+6.77ppOpen → 10am	13/8	-4.69pp10am → 1pm	2/1	+2.20pp1pm → now	15/8Current; SP pending	Pending	+4.28ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

David O'Meara runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 25/115 (a 21.7% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 10.6% strike rate. Across 9 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. Today’s move: Walsingham has shortened from 5/2 to 15/8, which is support (+4.28pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Pontefract · 29 Apr 2026 · 1st · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Pontefract×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 208y · previous 1m 6y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good✓Class: Class 4

ACT NOW — DO NOT WAIT FOR ANOTHER 2PP

42.6% of David O'Meara runners backed by at least 4pp by 1pm continued to shorten into SP (55/129). Today’s live move of +4.28pp is in that matching band, and the horse or trainer evidence also supports it. That continuation record is the reason to act now: waiting for another 2pp risks losing the available price.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

9 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +4.28pp

Possible next price: 11/4

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

KaleidoDraw 6

Trainer: David O'Meara

Jockey: Mark Winn

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer David O'Meara (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 67/717; first seen between 10am and 1pm 52/717; first seen after 1pm 31/717.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/8; first seen after 1pm 1/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -2.57pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run28 days ago · 3 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 0.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

1 historical matches

1/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 2/1 → 4/1 | Avg: 3/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.

LAST MINUTE BACKING (15.4%)

Early money horse (25%)

14:13Musselburgh

Opened 6/1Market avg 7/1

9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↓ 9/2

PRICE MOVE

-2.57pp (-21.9%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -14.6% • -1.82pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +0.75pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 11/2 @ 08:26

NR @ 08:26: 6/1 → 11/2 (+0.75pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -2.57pp

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 2nd at Pontefract on 29 Jun 2026 (-5.00pp); and finished 6th at Epsom on 28 Apr 2026 (-3.62pp).

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Epsom, 28 Apr 2026 — 6th • open 11/2 → final 10/1 (-6.29pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

33/1 34 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	6/1	+3.15ppOpen → 10am	9/2	+4.04pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-9.75pp1pm → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.57ppNR adjusted
Hamilton11 Jul 20261m 68y · Class 4 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/4	+1.90ppOpen → 10am	5/2	-1.90pp10am → 1pm	11/4	+9.70pp1pm → SP	7/4	2nd	+9.70pp
Post-race comment
Pontefract29 Jun 20261m 6y · Class 4 · Good · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	3/1	-5.00ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	4/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	4/1	2nd	-5.00pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	6/1	+3.15ppOpen → 10am	9/2	+4.04pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-9.75pp1pm → now	7/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.57ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Kaleido is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Hamilton · 11 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Hamilton×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 208y · previous 1m 68y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -2.57pp

Possible next price: 9/2

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Humble SparkDraw 5

Trainer: Jim Goldie

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jim Goldie (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 82/607; first seen between 10am and 1pm 41/607; first seen after 1pm 16/607.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/14; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/14; first seen after 1pm 1/14.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -4.16pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬆ CLASS RISE

Last run10 days ago · 21 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 3.1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

3 historical matches

0/3 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 14 | Fixed-odds range: 5/2 → 7/2 | Avg: 3/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

LAST MINUTE BACKING (25%)

10am plunger

Early money horse (36%)

14:13Musselburgh

Opened 10/1Market avg 16/1

11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 10/1 ↓ 8/1

PRICE MOVE

-4.16pp (-84.2%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -53.3% • -3.16pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +1.00pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 15/2 @ 08:26

NR @ 08:26: 17/2 → 15/2 (+1.00pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -4.16pp

Move evidence

93th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE93rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 14 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 9th at Ayr on 20 Jun 2026 (-4.17pp).

When drifting like this: failed 3/3

When drifting like this: failed 3/3 — view runs

17 Sep 2026 · Ayr
Open 10/1 → final 14/1 · SP 16/1 · 5th

20 Jun 2026 · Ayr
Open 5/1 → final 9/1 · SP 8/1 · 9th

16 Jan 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 16/1 → final 40/1 · SP 40/1 · 5th

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ayr, 20 Jun 2026 — 9th • open 5/1 → final 9/1 (-6.67pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

80/1 81 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	10/1	+4.20ppOpen → 10am	6/1	-0.95pp10am → 1pm	13/2	-7.40pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.16ppNR adjusted
York13 Jun 20261m 3f 188y · Class 3 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+1.52ppOpen → 10am	9/2	+4.04pp10am → 1pm	7/2	+0.00pp1pm → SP	7/2	2nd	+5.56pp
Post-race comment
Hamilton15 May 20261m 3f 15y · Class 3 · Good · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	3/1	-1.91ppOpen → 10am	10/3	+5.48pp10am → 1pm	5/2	+2.20pp1pm → SP	9/4	2nd	+5.77pp
Post-race comment
Hamilton03 May 20261m 5f 16y · Class 3 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	8/1	+11.11ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+4.44pp10am → 1pm	11/4	+1.90pp1pm → SP	5/2	2nd	+17.46pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	10/1	+4.20ppOpen → 10am	6/1	-0.95pp10am → 1pm	13/2	-7.40pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.16ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READMEANINGFUL DRIFT DETECTED

Just 1 of 14 previous runs showed a larger drift, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Trainer-specific drift evidence begins at the -5pp band, which has not yet been reached. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Humble Spark has moved from 10/1 to 16/1, a developing drift (-4.16pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: York · 13 Jun 2026 · 2nd · 0/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous York×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 208y · previous 1m 3f 188y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -4.16pp

Possible next price: 11/2

14 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Musselburgh is limited (2 runs without making the frame). Today's market is 27% bigger than usual against an average course SP profile of 13.3.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

PriaposDraw 3

Trainer: Phillip Makin

Jockey: Sam James

🔴 Ignores MarketThis horse has won or placed despite drifting. Market weakness does NOT negatively impact performance. Can be a value angle when price weakens.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Phillip Makin (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 13/107; first seen between 10am and 1pm 8/107; first seen after 1pm 4/107.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -8.11pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 1/6 won (16.7%), compared with the yard's normal 14% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (6 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run19 days ago · 12 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.4f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

7 historical matches

1/7 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 8/1 → 11/1 | Avg: 9/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.

Early money horse (25%)

14:13Musselburgh

Opened 13/2Market avg 18/1

16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↓ 12/1 → 12/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1

PRICE MOVE

-8.11pp (-160.6%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -141.6% • -7.71pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +0.40pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 8/1 @ 08:26

NR @ 08:26: 17/2 → 8/1 (+0.40pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -8.11pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 8 previous runs.

When drifting like this: failed 6/7

When drifting like this: failed 6/7 — view runs

12 Sep 2026 · Chester
Open 14/1 → final 25/1 · SP 28/1 · 6th

30 Aug 2026 · Beverley
Open 25/1 → final 40/1 · SP 40/1 · 5th

01 Aug 2026 · Thirsk
Open 18/1 → final 40/1 · SP 40/1 · 11th

09 Jul 2026 · Newmarket
Open 16/1 → final 28/1 · SP 33/1 · 12th

24 Jun 2026 · Carlisle
Open 6/1 → final 11/1 · SP 12/1 · 1st

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Carlisle, 24 Jun 2026 — 1st • open 6/1 → final 11/1 (-5.95pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

66/1 67 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	13/2	-1.05ppOpen → 10am	7/1	-1.39pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-5.66pp1pm → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-8.11ppNR adjusted
Carlisle24 Jun 20267f 173y · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 14 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/1	-7.62ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+1.67pp10am → 1pm	11/1	-0.64pp1pm → SP	12/1	1st	-6.59pp
Post-race comment
Carlisle30 May 20267f 173y · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	-1.57ppOpen → 10am	15/2	-1.24pp10am → 1pm	17/2	+2.81pp1pm → SP	13/2	1st	+0.00pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	13/2	-1.05ppOpen → 10am	7/1	-1.39pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-5.66pp1pm → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-8.11ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 8 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 1/6 won (16.7%), compared with the yard's normal 14% strike rate. Importantly, this horse has previously won or placed despite drifting, so market weakness has not automatically prevented it from performing. Today’s move: Priapos has moved from 13/2 to 18/1, a significant drift (-8.11pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Carlisle · 24 Jun 2026 · 1st · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Carlisle×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 208y · previous 7f 173y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -8.11pp

Possible next price: 16/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

The Stone PowerDraw 2

Trainer: Ralph Beckett

Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ralph Beckett (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 91/528; first seen between 10am and 1pm 38/528; first seen after 1pm 20/528.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -21.56pp, placing it in this yard's 20pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 20pp+ by 10am, 1/1 won (100%), compared with the yard's normal 18% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (1 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

⬆ CLASS RISE

Last run34 days ago · 28 Aug 2026

Distance changeUp 1.6f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: 4/1 → 4/1 | Avg: 4/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

This horse is usually backed but is drifting today. That change is a warning sign.

LAST MINUTE BACKING (22.7%)

Early money horse (50%)

14:13Musselburgh

Opened 3/1Market avg 18/1

8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 8/1 ↑ 10/1 ↑ 25/1 ↓ 9/1 ↓ 15/2

PRICE MOVE

-21.56pp (-625.9%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -398.5% • -19.98pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +1.57pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 7/2 @ 08:26

NR @ 08:26: 4/1 → 7/2 (+1.57pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -21.56pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 6 previous runs.

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ffos Las, 12 Aug 2026 — 1st • open 10/3 → final 4/1 (-3.09pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 101 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	3/1	-3.48ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-4.91pp10am → 1pm	9/2	-13.17pp1pm → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-21.56ppNR adjusted
Ffos Las12 Aug 20261m · Class 5 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/3	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-3.09pp10am → 1pm	4/1	+3.09pp1pm → SP	10/3	1st	+0.00pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 208y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	3/1	-3.48ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-4.91pp10am → 1pm	9/2	-13.17pp1pm → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-21.56ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 6 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 20pp+ by 10am, 1/1 won (100%), compared with the yard's normal 18% strike rate. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: The Stone Power has moved from 3/1 to 18/1, a significant drift (-21.56pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ffos Las · 12 Aug 2026 · 1st · 0/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Ffos Las×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 208y · previous 1m×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -21.56pp

Possible next price: 7/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Sunriseontheboyne

NON-RUNNERNR @ 08:26

Race market overview as at 00:59

Supported2 of 6 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Nostrum +20.83pp
Drifting3 of 6 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: The Stone Power -21.56pp
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

14:48Musselburgh • 7f15y • Class 6 • Going: Good To Soft

11 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Kelpie GreyDraw 3

Trainer: Jim Goldie

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jim Goldie (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 82/607; first seen between 10am and 1pm 41/607; first seen after 1pm 16/607.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 4/12; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/12; first seen after 1pm 0/12.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +6.84pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/108 won (13.9%); Open→SP 15/105 won (14.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 19% (8/42).

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run2 days ago · 29 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening, but similar moves have not converted well before.

10am plunger

Early money horse (58%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 9/4Market avg 13/8

6/4 ↑ 7/4 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 7/4 → 7/4 ↓ 6/4 → 6/4 ↑ 13/8 ↑ 7/4 ↑ 15/8

PRICE MOVE

+6.84pp (+17.6%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

92th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE92nd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 12 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 5th at Ayr on 20 May 2026 (+18.92pp).

0/2 placed when backed like this (0%).

When backed like this: 0/2 WON

Raw Open → Now price change: 17.6% • +6.84 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Ayr, 20 May 2026 — 5th • open 10/3 → final 13/8 (+14.93pp).

All 2 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

Ayr, 08 Aug 2026 — 8th • open 4/1 → final 3/1
Ayr, 06 Jul 2026 — 13th • open 14/1 → final 11/1

BEST FIXED ODDS

2/1 3 decimal Hollywood Bets

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	9/4	+2.77ppOpen → 10am	15/8	+1.64pp10am → 1pm	7/4	+2.43pp1pm → now	13/8Current; SP pending	Pending	+6.84pp
Ayr29 Sep 20267f 50y · Class 6 · Heavy · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+3.05ppOpen → 10am	4/1	-3.33pp10am → 1pm	5/1	+1.52pp1pm → SP	9/2	2nd	+1.23pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	9/4	+2.77ppOpen → 10am	15/8	+1.64pp10am → 1pm	7/4	+2.43pp1pm → now	13/8Current; SP pending	Pending	+6.84pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READMEANINGFUL SUPPORT DETECTED

Just 1 of 12 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 2 runs. The trainer evidence is important here: At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/108 won (13.9%); Open→SP 15/105 won (14.3%). Today’s move: Kelpie Grey has shortened from 9/4 to 13/8, which is support (+6.84pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ayr · 29 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Ayr✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Heavy✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

12 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +6.84pp

Possible next price: 9/4

12 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

Late money still arriving

MonhammerDraw 8

Trainer: Linda Perratt

Jockey: Clifford Lee

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Linda Perratt (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 15/186; first seen between 10am and 1pm 8/186; first seen after 1pm 5/186.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +3.41pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 5/22 won (22.7%); Open→SP 6/20 won (30%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 44.4% (4/9).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run19 days ago · 12 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

1/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 13/8 → 10/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

10am plunger

Mid-market mover (22%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 11/2Market avg 9/2

9/2 → 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1

PRICE MOVE

+3.41pp (+18.2%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 9 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 6th at Musselburgh on 25 Aug 2026 (+4.85pp).

1/2 placed when backed like this (50%).

When backed like this: 1/2 WON

Raw Open → Now price change: 18.2% • +3.41 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Musselburgh, 07 Aug 2026 — 1st • open 5/2 → final 13/8 (+9.45pp).

All 2 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

Musselburgh, 07 Aug 2026 — 1st • open 5/2 → final 13/8
Ayr, 20 Jun 2026 — 3rd • open 12/1 → final 17/2

BEST FIXED ODDS

5/1 6 decimal Coral

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	11/2	+7.71ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-0.87pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-3.43pp1pm → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+3.41pp
Musselburgh07 Aug 20267f 15y · Class 6 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/2	-1.90ppOpen → 10am	11/4	+8.06pp10am → 1pm	15/8	+5.28pp1pm → SP	6/4	1st	+11.43pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh31 Jul 20267f 15y · Class 6 · Good · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/2	+0.87ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-3.09pp10am → 1pm	4/1	+5.00pp1pm → SP	3/1	1st	+2.78pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh30 Jun 20267f 15y · Class 6 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/2	-5.38ppOpen → 10am	9/1	-0.91pp10am → 1pm	10/1	+2.02pp1pm → SP	8/1	2nd	-4.27pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	11/2	+7.71ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-0.87pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-3.43pp1pm → now	9/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+3.41pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 1 of 2 runs. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Monhammer is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Musselburgh · 07 Aug 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Musselburgh✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +3.41pp

Possible next price: 4/1

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Musselburgh stands at 3 placed efforts from 6 runs. Today's market is 44% shorter than usual compared with a long-term course average SP of 9.6.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

MisemeraldDraw 7

Trainer: Philip Kirby

Jockey: Kevin Stott

🟢 Needs Support (10%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Philip Kirby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 32/315; first seen between 10am and 1pm 21/315; first seen after 1pm 8/315.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/10; first seen after 1pm 2/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.84pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run34 days ago · 28 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 9/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (50%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 5/1Market avg 11/2

5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 → 5/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.84pp (-5.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

2 of 10 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 4th at Thirsk on 16 Jul 2026 (-2.02pp); and finished 6th at Newcastle (AW) on 20 Apr 2026 (-2.45pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 5.3% • -0.84 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 20 Apr 2026 — 6th • open 11/1 → final 25/1 (-4.49pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

6/1 7 decimal Unibet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	5/1	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-4.18pp1pm → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.84pp
Musselburgh24 Aug 20261m 2y · Class 6 · Good · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+5.00ppOpen → 10am	3/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	3/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	3/1	1st	+5.00pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh31 Jul 20267f 15y · Class 6 · Good · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/2	+6.82ppOpen → 10am	3/1	-2.78pp10am → 1pm	7/2	+0.87pp1pm → SP	10/3	2nd	+4.91pp
Post-race comment
Catterick22 Jun 20267f 6y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	14/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+4.44pp10am → 1pm	8/1	+0.65pp1pm → SP	15/2	2nd	+5.10pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	5/1	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-4.18pp1pm → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.84pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 10 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Misemerald is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Musselburgh · 31 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Musselburgh✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

All 3 previous top-two finishes came with support of 3.33pp+.

At 3.33pp+: 3/5 finished 1st or 2nd (60%).

Today: -0.84pp — trigger not reached.

Possible next price: 5/1

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Musselburgh stands at 2 placed efforts from 4 runs. Today's market is 29% bigger than usual compared with a long-term course average SP of 4.9.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Filey BeachDraw 2

Trainer: Ruth Carr

Jockey: James Sullivan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ruth Carr (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 60/441; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/441; first seen after 1pm 16/441.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -11.87pp, placing it in this yard's 10pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 1/12 won (8.3%), compared with the yard's normal 10.4% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (12 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run23 days ago · 8 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

3 historical matches

0/3 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: EVS → 9/1 | Avg: 9/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (40%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 11/4Market avg 6/1

6/1 → 6/1 ↓ 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↑ 6/1 → 6/1 ↓ 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2

PRICE MOVE

-11.87pp (-80.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 10 previous runs.

When drifting like this: failed 3/3

When drifting like this: failed 3/3 — view runs

07 Aug 2026 · Musselburgh
Open 9/2 → final 7/1 · SP 13/2 · 4th

25 Jul 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 11/4 → final 4/1 · SP 4/1 · 4th

08 Jul 2026 · Catterick
Open 6/4 → final 11/4 · SP 3/1 · 7th

Raw Open → Now price change: 80.3% • -11.87 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Catterick, 08 Jul 2026 — 7th • open 6/4 → final 11/4 (-13.33pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

13/2 7.5 decimal Coral

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	11/4	-6.67ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-5.21pp1pm → now	6/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-11.87pp
Catterick08 Sep 20267f 6y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/1	+9.21ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-6.43pp10am → 1pm	5/1	+8.33pp1pm → SP	3/1	1st	+11.11pp
Post-race comment
Catterick21 May 20267f 6y · Class 6 · Good · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/4	+8.08ppOpen → 10am	5/4	+1.01pp10am → 1pm	6/5	+0.00pp1pm → SP	6/5	1st	+9.09pp
Post-race comment
Catterick11 May 20267f 6y · Class 6 · Good · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/2	+1.57ppOpen → 10am	13/2	+0.95pp10am → 1pm	6/1	-4.29pp1pm → SP	9/1	1st	-1.76pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	11/4	-6.67ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-5.21pp1pm → now	6/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-11.87pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 10 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 1/12 won (8.3%), compared with the yard's normal 10.4% strike rate. Today’s move: Filey Beach has moved from 11/4 to 6/1, a significant drift (-11.87pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Catterick · 08 Sep 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Catterick✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y✓Ground: Good To Soft✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -11.87pp

Possible next price: 5/1

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
No placed efforts from 2 previous runs at Musselburgh. The current market is 35% bigger than usual compared with a typical course SP of 5.0.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

RwenearlytheredadDraw 1

Trainer: Declan Carroll

Jockey: Zak Wheatley

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Declan Carroll (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 21/170; first seen between 10am and 1pm 5/170; first seen after 1pm 7/170.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 1/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +1.09pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 5/24 won (20.8%); Open→SP 5/27 won (18.5%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run22 days ago · 9 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

10am plunger

Early money horse (67%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 10/1Market avg 9/1

9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 17/2 → 17/2 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 17/2 → 17/2

PRICE MOVE

+1.09pp (+10.7%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 3 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 5th at Carlisle on 08 Jun 2026 (+7.94pp); and finished 6th at Ayr on 20 May 2026 (+2.83pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 10.7% • +1.09 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Ayr, 20 May 2026 — 6th • open 12/1 → final 4/1 (+12.31pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/1 11 decimal Coral

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	10/1	+2.02ppOpen → 10am	8/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-0.93pp1pm → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.09pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	10/1	+2.02ppOpen → 10am	8/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-0.93pp1pm → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.09pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

2 of 3 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Rwenearlytheredad is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +1.09pp

Possible next price: 8/1

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

Jkr CobblerDraw 11

Trainer: Iain Jardine

Jockey: Andrew Mullen

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Iain Jardine (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 44/470; first seen between 10am and 1pm 26/470; first seen after 1pm 9/470.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/10; first seen after 1pm 1/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -4.33pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run14 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

3 historical matches

0/3 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 11/4 → 11/4 | Avg: 11/4Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (50%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 9/1Market avg 16/1

18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 ↓ 16/1 → 16/1 ↑ 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 ↓ 16/1 → 16/1

PRICE MOVE

-4.33pp (-76.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 10 previous runs.

When drifting like this: failed 3/3

When drifting like this: failed 3/3 — view runs

19 May 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 10/1 → final 14/1 · SP 14/1 · 7th

10 Apr 2026 · Thirsk
Open 7/1 → final 10/1 · SP 11/1 · 5th

16 Jan 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 14/1 → final 20/1 · SP 18/1 · 5th

Raw Open → Now price change: 76.4% • -4.33 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Thirsk, 10 Apr 2026 — 5th • open 7/1 → final 10/1 (-3.41pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

18/1 19 decimal Bet Victor

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	9/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	9/1	-0.91pp10am → 1pm	10/1	-3.42pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.33pp
Ayr05 Jul 20267f 50y · Class 6 · Good · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+5.00ppOpen → 10am	3/1	+1.67pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-1.67pp1pm → SP	3/1	1st	+5.00pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	9/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	9/1	-0.91pp10am → 1pm	10/1	-3.42pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.33pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 10 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. Trainer-specific drift evidence begins at the -5pp band, which has not yet been reached. Today’s move: Jkr Cobbler has moved from 9/1 to 16/1, a developing drift (-4.33pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ayr · 05 Jul 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Ayr✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

10 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -4.33pp

Possible next price: 14/1

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Due RespectDraw 6

Trainer: Catch Bissett

Jockey: Rhys Elliott(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Catch Bissett (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -2.77pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run19 days ago · 12 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

4 historical matches

0/4 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 11/1 → 11/1 | Avg: 11/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (30%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 11/1Market avg 16/1

16/1 → 16/1 ↑ 20/1 ↓ 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 → 18/1 ↑ 20/1 ↓ 18/1 → 18/1

PRICE MOVE

-2.77pp (-49.7%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

90th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE90th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 10 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Musselburgh on 29 Apr 2026 (-2.82pp).

When drifting like this: failed 4/4

When drifting like this: failed 4/4 — view runs

24 Aug 2026 · Musselburgh
Open 11/2 → final 9/1 · SP 9/1 · 8th

04 Aug 2026 · Catterick
Open 16/1 → final 25/1 · SP 22/1 · 5th

22 Jun 2026 · Musselburgh
Open 16/1 → final 40/1 · SP 33/1 · 4th

25 May 2026 · Redcar
Open 8/1 → final 11/1 · SP 12/1 · 11th

Raw Open → Now price change: 49.7% • -2.77 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Musselburgh, 24 Aug 2026 — 8th • open 11/2 → final 9/1 (-5.62pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

20/1 21 decimal Bet Victor

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	11/1	-1.67ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+1.03pp10am → 1pm	12/1	-2.12pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.77pp
Ayr10 Aug 20261m · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	20/1	-0.41ppOpen → 10am	22/1	+3.34pp10am → 1pm	12/1	+2.31pp1pm → SP	9/1	2nd	+5.24pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	11/1	-1.67ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+1.03pp10am → 1pm	12/1	-2.12pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.77pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 10 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Due Respect is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ayr · 10 Aug 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Ayr×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 15y · previous 1m✓Ground: Good To Soft✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Redcar, 07 May 2026 — 5th • open 10/1 → 10am 9/2 → final 6/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

10 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -2.77pp

Possible next price: 18/1

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
No placed efforts from 4 previous runs at Musselburgh. The current market is close to its historical average compared with a typical course SP of 17.8.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Keep Me StableDraw 9

Trainer: Linda Perratt

Jockey: Mark Winn

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Linda Perratt (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 15/186; first seen between 10am and 1pm 8/186; first seen after 1pm 5/186.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.16pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run14 days ago · 17 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 9/2 → 9/2 | Avg: 9/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

Late money horse (38%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 20/1Market avg 20/1

22/1 → 22/1 → 22/1 → 22/1 → 22/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 22/1 → 22/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 22/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.16pp (-3.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

6 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 13th at Ayr on 17 Sep 2026 (-3.83pp); finished 7th at Musselburgh on 25 Aug 2026 (-2.52pp); finished 3rd at Ayr on 10 Aug 2026 (-2.67pp); finished 8th at Ayr on 20 Jul 2026 (-0.90pp); finished 11th at Ayr on 06 Jul 2026 (-0.48pp); and finished 7th at Musselburgh on 22 Jun 2026 (-12.22pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 3.4% • -0.16 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Musselburgh, 22 Jun 2026 — 7th • open 7/2 → final 20/1 (-17.46pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

22/1 23 decimal 10 Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	20/1	-0.92ppOpen → 10am	25/1	+5.24pp10am → 1pm	10/1	-4.49pp1pm → now	20/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.16pp
Musselburgh07 Aug 20267f 15y · Class 6 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/2	+4.62ppOpen → 10am	4/1	-3.33pp10am → 1pm	5/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	5/1	2nd	+1.28pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	20/1	-0.92ppOpen → 10am	25/1	+5.24pp10am → 1pm	10/1	-4.49pp1pm → now	20/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.16pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

6 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Keep Me Stable is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Musselburgh · 07 Aug 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Musselburgh✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -0.16pp

Possible next price: 25/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Musselburgh stands at 1 placed effort from 4 runs. Today's market is 77% bigger than usual compared with a long-term course average SP of 12.3.

Best time: 10am was biggest

Weakening late

Concert BoyDraw 5

Trainer: Katie Scott

Jockey: Sam James

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Katie Scott (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 14/166; first seen between 10am and 1pm 7/166; first seen after 1pm 5/166.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/15; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/15; first seen after 1pm 1/15.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.97pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run52 days ago · 10 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

6 historical matches

0/6 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 15 | Fixed-odds range: 9/2 → 9/2 | Avg: 9/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (20%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 18/1Market avg 28/1

28/1 → 28/1 → 28/1 ↓ 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 ↑ 28/1 → 28/1 ↓ 25/1 → 25/1

PRICE MOVE

-1.97pp (-59.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

73th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE73rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

4 of 15 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 10th at Carlisle on 08 Jun 2026 (-2.43pp); finished 6th at Newcastle (AW) on 21 Mar 2026 (-6.67pp); finished 3rd at Newcastle (AW) on 10 Jan 2026 (-3.57pp); and finished 4th at Newcastle (AW) on 01 Jan 2026 (-2.86pp).

When drifting like this: failed 6/6

When drifting like this: failed 6/6 — view runs

22 Jun 2026 · Musselburgh
Open 20/1 → final 28/1 · SP 28/1 · 8th

08 Jun 2026 · Carlisle
Open 12/1 → final 33/1 · SP 40/1 · 10th

21 Mar 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 5/1 → final 11/1 · SP 11/1 · 6th

15 Feb 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 13/2 → final 10/1 · SP 10/1 · 5th

22 Jan 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 15/2 → final 12/1 · SP 11/1 · 4th

Raw Open → Now price change: 59.6% • -1.97 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 01 Jan 2026 — 4th • open 11/4 → final 7/1 (-14.17pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

40/1 41 decimal Betfair Sportsbook

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	18/1	-0.50ppOpen → 10am	20/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	20/1	-1.46pp1pm → now	28/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.97pp
Newcastle (AW)12 Mar 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/1	+2.38ppOpen → 10am	5/1	-1.28pp10am → 1pm	11/2	+4.62pp1pm → SP	4/1	2nd	+5.71pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	18/1	-0.50ppOpen → 10am	20/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	20/1	-1.46pp1pm → now	28/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.97pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 4 of 15 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Concert Boy is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 12 Mar 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

15 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -1.97pp

Possible next price: 25/1

15 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Pallas LordDraw 4

Trainer: Donald Whillans

Jockey: Jason Hart

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Donald Whillans (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/75; first seen between 10am and 1pm 11/75; first seen after 1pm 3/75.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 3/11; first seen after 1pm 0/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -8.27pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 1/8 won (12.5%), compared with the yard's normal 13.3% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (8 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run115 days ago · 8 Jun 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

5 historical matches

1/5 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: 2/1 → 14/1 | Avg: 8/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

LAST MINUTE BACKING (29.3%)

10am plunger

Early money horse (27%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 8/1Market avg 33/1

40/1 ↓ 33/1 → 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1 → 33/1 ↑ 40/1 ↓ 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↓ 28/1

PRICE MOVE

-8.27pp (-291.1%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

82th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE82nd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

2 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Hamilton on 15 May 2026 (-8.67pp); and finished 11th at Newcastle (AW) on 12 Mar 2026 (-8.33pp).

When drifting like this: failed 4/5

When drifting like this: failed 4/5 — view runs

29 May 2026 · Carlisle
Open 6/1 → final 14/1 · SP 14/1 · 7th

15 May 2026 · Hamilton
Open 8/1 → final 28/1 · SP 25/1 · 3rd

12 Mar 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 5/1 → final 11/1 · SP 11/1 · 11th

19 Feb 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 8/1 → final 11/1 · SP 11/1 · 5th

31 Jan 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 10/1 → final 14/1 · SP 16/1 · 2nd

Raw Open → Now price change: 291.1% • -8.27 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 12 Mar 2026 — 11th • open 5/1 → final 11/1 (-8.33pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

40/1 41 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	8/1	-5.23ppOpen → 10am	16/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	16/1	-3.04pp1pm → now	33/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-8.27pp
Newcastle (AW)24 Feb 20267f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+20.88pp10am → 1pm	5/2	-1.90pp1pm → SP	11/4	1st	+18.97pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)31 Jan 20261m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	+3.41ppOpen → 10am	7/1	-4.81pp10am → 1pm	12/1	-1.81pp1pm → SP	16/1	2nd	-3.21pp
Post-race comment
Newcastle (AW)01 Jan 20261m 5y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/1	+1.76ppOpen → 10am	15/2	-1.24pp10am → 1pm	17/2	-1.44pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	-0.91pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	8/1	-5.23ppOpen → 10am	16/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	16/1	-3.04pp1pm → now	33/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-8.27pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READSIGNIFICANT MARKET DRIFT DETECTED

Just 2 of 11 previous runs showed a larger drift, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 1/8 won (12.5%), compared with the yard's normal 13.3% strike rate. Today’s move: Pallas Lord has moved from 8/1 to 33/1, a significant drift (-8.27pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 24 Feb 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Standard✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -8.27pp

Possible next price: 25/1

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Escape ActDraw 10

Trainer: Jean McGregor

Jockey: Greg Fairley

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jean McGregor (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Timing evidence for This horse: only 0 complete checkpoint runs; too few for a usual time.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -3.10pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

Runs: 0 | Fixed-odds range: N/A → N/A | Avg: N/AFractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

LAST MINUTE BACKING (33.7%)

14:48Musselburgh

Opened 22/1Market avg 80/1

100/1 ↓ 80/1 → 80/1 ↓ 66/1 ↑ 80/1 ↓ 66/1 ↑ 100/1 ↓ 80/1 ↓ 66/1 ↓ 66/1

PRICE MOVE

-3.10pp (-248.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

Raw Open → Now price change: 248% • -3.10 probability points

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 111 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	22/1	-0.90ppOpen → 10am	28/1	+0.40pp10am → 1pm	25/1	-2.60pp1pm → now	80/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.10pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 11 runners	22/1	-0.90ppOpen → 10am	28/1	+0.40pp10am → 1pm	25/1	-2.60pp1pm → now	80/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.10pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Escape Act is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

Possible next price: 66/1

No historical data

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Race market overview as at 00:59

Supported1 of 11 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Kelpie Grey +6.84pp
Drifting3 of 11 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Filey Beach -11.87pp
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

15:23Musselburgh • 7f15y • Class 5 • Going: Good To Soft

8 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Sir SiriusDraw 2

Trainer: Kevin Ryan

Jockey: Kevin Stott

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Kevin Ryan (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 42/436; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/436; first seen after 1pm 8/436.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +4.07pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 21/63 won (33.3%); Open→SP 21/53 won (39.6%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 60.9% (14/23).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run20 days ago · 11 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

Best at SP (50%)

15:23Musselburgh

Opened 4/1Market avg 3/1

3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↓ 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1

PRICE MOVE

+4.07pp (+16.9%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 4 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 16.9% • +4.07 probability points

Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final support in the recorded sample.

BEST FIXED ODDS

4/1 5 decimal BetWright

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	4/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+5.00pp10am → 1pm	3/1	-0.93pp1pm → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+4.07pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	4/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+5.00pp10am → 1pm	3/1	-0.93pp1pm → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+4.07pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

Kevin Ryan runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 21/53 (a 39.6% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 9.9% strike rate. Across 4 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 4 to Class 5, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Sir Sirius has shortened from 4/1 to 3/1, which is support (+4.07pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +4.07pp

Possible next price: 11/4

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

Rock Steady BeatDraw 1

Trainer: K. R. Burke

Jockey: Clifford Lee

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer K. R. Burke (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 23/259; first seen between 10am and 1pm 21/259; first seen after 1pm 12/259.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -3.78pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run16 days ago · 15 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: 5/6 → 4/1 | Avg: 5/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.

Early money horse (40%)

15:23Musselburgh

Opened 3/1Market avg 7/2

4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2

PRICE MOVE

-3.78pp (-17.8%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Redcar on 20 Jun 2026 (-4.76pp); and finished 6th at York on 14 May 2026 (-8.48pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 17.8% • -3.78 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: York, 14 May 2026 — 6th • open 11/4 → final 11/2 (-11.28pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

4/1 5 decimal Bet Victor

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	3/1	-2.78ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-2.22pp10am → 1pm	4/1	+1.22pp1pm → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.78pp
Redcar15 Sep 20265f 217y · Class 4 · Good · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/2	+0.87ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-4.91pp10am → 1pm	9/2	+1.82pp1pm → SP	4/1	1st	-2.22pp
Post-race comment
Carlisle09 Jun 20265f · Class 3 · Good To Soft · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/5	+6.90ppOpen → 10am	10/11	+3.20pp10am → 1pm	4/5	-0.91pp1pm → SP	5/6	2nd	+9.19pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	3/1	-2.78ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-2.22pp10am → 1pm	4/1	+1.22pp1pm → now	7/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.78pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 4 to Class 5, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Rock Steady Beat is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Carlisle · 09 Jun 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Carlisle×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 15y · previous 5f✓Ground: Good To Soft×Class: Today Class 5 · previous Class 3

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -3.78pp

Possible next price: 7/2

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: 1pm was biggest

Weakening late

BrandenburgDraw 5

Trainer: Ann Duffield

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ann Duffield (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.37pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run43 days ago · 19 Aug 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: 10am

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: 5/4 → 33/1 | Avg: 18/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (50%)

15:23Musselburgh

Opened 7/2Market avg 4/1

4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1

PRICE MOVE

-1.37pp (-6.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

Only 1 of 4 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 1st at Hamilton on 17 Jul 2026 (-1.39pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 6.6% • -1.37 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: York, 11 Jul 2026 — 2nd • open 16/1 → final 33/1 (-2.94pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/2 5.5 decimal Virgin Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	7/2	+4.44ppOpen → 10am	11/4	-3.57pp10am → 1pm	10/3	-2.24pp1pm → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.37pp
Hamilton17 Jul 20266f 6y · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	15/8	-1.39ppOpen → 10am	2/1	+8.68pp10am → 1pm	11/8	+7.98pp1pm → SP	EVS	1st	+15.28pp
Post-race comment
York11 Jul 20266f · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	16/1	-1.12ppOpen → 10am	20/1	-1.82pp10am → 1pm	33/1	-0.98pp1pm → SP	50/1	2nd	-3.92pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	7/2	+4.44ppOpen → 10am	11/4	-3.57pp10am → 1pm	10/3	-2.24pp1pm → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.37pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 2 to Class 5, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Brandenburg is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Hamilton · 17 Jul 2026 · 1st · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Hamilton×Trip (within ½f): Today 7f 15y · previous 6f 6y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -1.37pp

Possible next price: 9/2

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Inns And OutDraw 7

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 146/1132; first seen between 10am and 1pm 65/1132; first seen after 1pm 34/1132.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +4.59pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 41/181 won (22.7%); Open→SP 43/190 won (22.6%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 30.9% (25/81).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run13 days ago · 18 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

1 historical matches

0/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 15/2 → 15/2 | Avg: 15/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening, but similar moves have not converted well before.

10am plunger

Early money horse (43%)

15:23Musselburgh

Opened 8/1Market avg 11/2

13/2 → 13/2 ↑ 7/1 ↓ 11/2 → 11/2 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 7/1 ↓ 13/2 ↑ 7/1

PRICE MOVE

+4.59pp (+29.2%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

86th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE86th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 1st at Musselburgh on 25 Aug 2026 (+4.97pp).

Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.

Raw Open → Now price change: 29.2% • +4.59 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Beverley, 30 Aug 2026 — 3rd • open 5/1 → final 4/1 (+3.33pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/1 8 decimal 10 Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	8/1	+11.11ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-4.04pp10am → 1pm	9/2	-2.48pp1pm → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+4.59pp
Musselburgh25 Aug 20267f 15y · Class 4 · Good · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	17/2	+4.97ppOpen → 10am	11/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/2	-2.88pp1pm → SP	7/1	1st	+2.08pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	8/1	+11.11ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-4.04pp10am → 1pm	9/2	-2.48pp1pm → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+4.59pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

Tim Easterby runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 41/181 (a 22.7% Open→1PM strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 9.5% strike rate. Just 1 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 2 to Class 5, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Inns And Out has shortened from 8/1 to 11/2, which is support (+4.59pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Musselburgh · 25 Aug 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Musselburgh✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good×Class: Today Class 5 · previous Class 4

ACT NOW — DO NOT WAIT FOR ANOTHER 2PP

40.1% of Tim Easterby runners backed by at least 4pp by 1pm continued to shorten into SP (93/232). Today’s live move of +4.59pp is in that matching band, and the horse or trainer evidence also supports it. That continuation record is the reason to act now: waiting for another 2pp risks losing the available price.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

7 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +4.59pp

Possible next price: 15/2

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

Sovereigns HighDraw 8

Trainer: Ralph Beckett

Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ralph Beckett (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 91/528; first seen between 10am and 1pm 38/528; first seen after 1pm 20/528.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.65pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run12 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

1 historical matches

0/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.

Late money horse (40%)

15:23Musselburgh

Opened 5/1Market avg 11/2

5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 ↑ 5/1

PRICE MOVE

-1.65pp (-11.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 8th at Windsor on 13 Jul 2026 (-18.02pp); and finished 3rd at Kempton (AW) on 29 Jun 2026 (-4.86pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 11% • -1.65 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Windsor, 13 Jul 2026 — 8th • open 13/8 → final 11/2 (-22.64pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

12/1 13 decimal SportingIndex

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	5/1	+6.43ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-0.87pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-7.21pp1pm → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.65pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	5/1	+6.43ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-0.87pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-7.21pp1pm → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.65pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Sovereigns High is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -1.65pp

Possible next price: 5/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

The First DropDraw 3

Trainer: Adrian Keatley

Jockey: M. P. Sheehy

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Adrian Keatley (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 12/89; first seen between 10am and 1pm 6/89; first seen after 1pm 2/89.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -13.85pp, placing it in this yard's 10pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 0/3 won (0%), compared with the yard's normal 13.5% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (3 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run47 days ago · 15 Aug 2026

Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

1/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: 33/1 → 33/1 | Avg: 33/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.

Early money horse (33%)

15:23Musselburgh

Opened 7/2Market avg 11/1

11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↓ 17/2 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 12/1

PRICE MOVE

-13.85pp (-165.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 3 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 165.3% • -13.85 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Carlisle, 24 Jun 2026 — 2nd • open 10/1 → final 33/1 (-6.15pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

16/1 17 decimal SportingIndex

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	7/2	-4.04ppOpen → 10am	9/2	-3.90pp10am → 1pm	6/1	-5.91pp1pm → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-13.85pp
Carlisle24 Jun 20266f 195y · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	-4.33ppOpen → 10am	20/1	-1.31pp10am → 1pm	28/1	+0.40pp1pm → SP	25/1	2nd	-5.24pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	7/2	-4.04ppOpen → 10am	9/2	-3.90pp10am → 1pm	6/1	-5.91pp1pm → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-13.85pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 3 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 0/3 won (0%), compared with the yard's normal 13.5% strike rate. Despite dropping from Class 2 to Class 5, the market is still weakening. Today’s move: The First Drop has moved from 7/2 to 11/1, a significant drift (-13.85pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Carlisle · 24 Jun 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Carlisle✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 15y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good To Firm×Class: Today Class 5 · previous Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

N/A

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -13.85pp

Possible next price: 14/1

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Deputy ViceDraw 6

Trainer: Rebecca Menzies

Jockey: Rhys Elliott(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Rebecca Menzies (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 26/335; first seen between 10am and 1pm 12/335; first seen after 1pm 7/335.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -9.36pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 4/36 won (11.1%), compared with the yard's normal 7.8% strike rate.
The sample is reliable enough to inspect, but the strike-rate fall is not large enough to call a serious trainer warning.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run13 days ago · 18 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 1.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Early PM

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Mid-market mover (40%)

15:23Musselburgh

Opened 5/1Market avg 12/1

10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 10/1 → 10/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 10/1

PRICE MOVE

-9.36pp (-128.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 5 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 128% • -9.36 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Carlisle, 08 Jun 2026 — 4th • open 2/1 → final 10/3 (-10.24pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

33/1 34 decimal Virgin Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	5/1	-4.90ppOpen → 10am	15/2	+0.74pp10am → 1pm	7/1	-5.19pp1pm → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-9.36pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	5/1	-4.90ppOpen → 10am	15/2	+0.74pp10am → 1pm	7/1	-5.19pp1pm → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-9.36pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 5 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 4/36 won (11.1%), compared with the yard's normal 7.8% strike rate. Despite dropping from Class 2 to Class 5, the market is still weakening. Today’s move: Deputy Vice has moved from 5/1 to 12/1, a significant drift (-9.36pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This price often moves during the day, so keep checking it. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -9.36pp

Possible next price: 9/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Beauty For LoveDraw 4

Trainer: Charlie Johnston

Jockey: Sam James

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Charlie Johnston (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 71/697; first seen between 10am and 1pm 46/697; first seen after 1pm 25/697.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.81pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run51 days ago · 11 Aug 2026

Distance changeUp 2.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.

10am plunger

Late money horse (60%)

15:23Musselburgh

Opened 18/1Market avg 22/1

22/1 ↑ 25/1 ↓ 22/1 → 22/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 22/1 → 22/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 25/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.81pp (-18.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

40th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE40th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 7th at Carlisle on 11 Aug 2026 (-2.80pp); finished 3rd at Hamilton on 17 Jul 2026 (-6.67pp); and finished 6th at Doncaster on 03 Jul 2026 (-4.71pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 18.3% • -0.81 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Hamilton, 17 Jul 2026 — 3rd • open 11/4 → final 13/2 (-13.33pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

28/1 29 decimal BetTom

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	18/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	18/1	+0.62pp10am → 1pm	16/1	-1.43pp1pm → now	22/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.81pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday7f 15y · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 8 runners	18/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	18/1	+0.62pp10am → 1pm	16/1	-1.43pp1pm → now	22/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.81pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Beauty For Love is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -0.81pp

Possible next price: 33/1

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Race market overview as at 00:59

Supported2 of 8 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Inns And Out +4.59pp
Drifting2 of 8 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: The First Drop -13.85pp
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

15:58Musselburgh • 5f1y • Class 4 • Going: Good To Soft

12 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Mo of CairoDraw 9

Trainer: Kevin Ryan

Jockey: Kevin Stott

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Kevin Ryan (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 42/436; first seen between 10am and 1pm 29/436; first seen after 1pm 8/436.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/5; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/5; first seen after 1pm 0/5.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +5.04pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 21/63 won (33.3%); Open→SP 21/53 won (39.6%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 60.9% (14/23).

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run18 days ago · 13 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 5 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

10am plunger

Early money horse (40%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 4/1Market avg 3/1

10/3 ↓ 11/4 ↑ 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3

PRICE MOVE

+5.04pp (+20.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 5 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 4th at Windsor on 01 Jun 2026 (+6.62pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 20.1% • +5.04 probability points

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Windsor, 01 Jun 2026 — 4th • open 16/1 → final 7/1 (+6.62pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/2 4.5 decimal Hollywood Bets

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	4/1	+5.00ppOpen → 10am	3/1	+1.67pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-1.62pp1pm → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+5.04pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	4/1	+5.00ppOpen → 10am	3/1	+1.67pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-1.62pp1pm → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+5.04pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

Kevin Ryan runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 21/53 (a 39.6% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 9.9% strike rate. Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Mo of Cairo has shortened from 4/1 to 3/1, which is support (+5.04pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

5 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +5.04pp

Possible next price: 10/3

5 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

Jer BattDraw 6

Trainer: David & Nicola Barron

Jockey: Clifford Lee

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer David & Nicola Barron (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 16/179; first seen between 10am and 1pm 12/179; first seen after 1pm 8/179.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/7; first seen after 1pm 1/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -5.66pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 1/24 won (4.2%), compared with the yard's normal 8.4% strike rate.
The sample is reliable enough to inspect, but the strike-rate fall is not large enough to call a serious trainer warning.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run18 days ago · 13 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

This horse is usually backed but is drifting today. That change is a warning sign.

10am plunger

Early money horse (43%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 11/4Market avg 4/1

7/2 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2 ↑ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1

PRICE MOVE

-5.66pp (-26.9%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 7 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 26.9% • -5.66 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Musselburgh, 07 Aug 2026 — 4th • open 4/1 → final 9/2 (-1.82pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/2 5.5 decimal Midnite

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	11/4	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	11/4	-1.67pp10am → 1pm	3/1	-3.99pp1pm → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-5.66pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	11/4	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	11/4	-1.67pp10am → 1pm	3/1	-3.99pp1pm → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-5.66pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 7 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 1/24 won (4.2%), compared with the yard's normal 8.4% strike rate. Despite dropping from Class 3 to Class 4, the market is still weakening. Today’s move: Jer Batt has moved from 11/4 to 4/1, a developing drift (-5.66pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

7 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -5.66pp

Possible next price: 9/2

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
No placed efforts from 4 previous runs at Musselburgh. The current market is close to its historical average compared with a typical course SP of 4.6.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

MontezumaDraw 4

Trainer: Jim Goldie

Jockey: Paul Mulrennan

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jim Goldie (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 82/607; first seen between 10am and 1pm 41/607; first seen after 1pm 16/607.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 5/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +7.41pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/108 won (13.9%); Open→SP 15/105 won (14.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 19% (8/42).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run10 days ago · 21 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 2/1 → 5/1 | Avg: 3/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening, but similar moves have not converted well before.

10am plunger

Early money horse (70%)

Late move vs early profile

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 12/1Market avg 11/2

6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 → 6/1 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 11/2 → 11/2 ↑ 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2

PRICE MOVE

+7.41pp (+49.1%)

Shortening: the market price is shorter than at the open.

Move evidence

80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

2 of 10 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Hamilton on 17 Jun 2026 (+11.28pp); and finished 1st at Musselburgh on 12 Apr 2026 (+8.33pp).

0/2 placed when backed like this (0%).

When backed like this: 0/2 WON

Raw Open → Now price change: 49.1% • +7.41 probability points

Built 15:53 → 16:05

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Hamilton, 17 Jun 2026 — 3rd • open 11/2 → final 3/1 (+9.62pp).

All 2 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

Hamilton, 21 Sep 2026 — 4th • open 8/1 → final 5/1
Hamilton, 17 Jun 2026 — 3rd • open 11/2 → final 3/1

BEST FIXED ODDS

13/2 7.5 decimal 10 Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	12/1	+7.69ppOpen → 10am	11/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/2	-0.28pp1pm → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+7.41pp
Musselburgh31 Jul 20265f 1y · Class 4 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/4	+6.67ppOpen → 10am	2/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	2/1	-2.56pp1pm → SP	9/4	2nd	+4.10pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh26 Apr 20265f 1y · Class 4 · Good · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/4	+1.90ppOpen → 10am	5/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	5/2	+0.00pp1pm → SP	5/2	2nd	+1.90pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh12 Apr 20265f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 17 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	3/1	+8.33ppOpen → 10am	2/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	2/1	-4.76pp1pm → SP	5/2	1st	+3.57pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh04 Apr 20265f 1y · Class 4 · Soft · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+6.67ppOpen → 10am	11/4	-3.57pp10am → 1pm	10/3	-9.76pp1pm → SP	13/2	2nd	-6.67pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	12/1	+7.69ppOpen → 10am	11/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	11/2	-0.28pp1pm → now	11/2Current; SP pending	Pending	+7.41pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READMEANINGFUL SUPPORT DETECTED

Just 2 of 10 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 2 runs. The trainer evidence is important here: At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/108 won (13.9%); Open→SP 15/105 won (14.3%). The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 3 to Class 4, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Montezuma has shortened from 12/1 to 11/2, which is support (+7.41pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Musselburgh · 12 Apr 2026 · 1st · 4/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Musselburgh✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y✓Ground: Good To Soft✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: +7.41pp

Possible next price: 15/2

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
This runner has made the frame 4 times from 5 starts at Musselburgh. Historical course average SP is 4.2, while today's market is 60% bigger than usual.

Best time: Open was biggest

Late money still arriving

AzuinthejungleDraw 8

Trainer: Nigel Tinkler

Jockey: Alex Jary(3)

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Nigel Tinkler (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 30/324; first seen between 10am and 1pm 13/324; first seen after 1pm 11/324.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 4/11; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/11; first seen after 1pm 0/11.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -3.73pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬆ CLASS RISE

Last run12 days ago · 19 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

3 historical matches

0/3 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 11 | Fixed-odds range: 9/4 → 17/2 | Avg: 4/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (55%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 15/2Market avg 11/1

15/2 ↑ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 15/2 ↓ 7/1 ↑ 15/2 → 15/2 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 15/2 → 15/2

PRICE MOVE

-3.73pp (-46.4%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

91th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE91st HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 1st at Ayr on 13 Jul 2026 (-6.35pp).

When drifting like this: failed 3/3

When drifting like this: failed 3/3 — view runs

20 Aug 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 5/1 → final 8/1 · SP 7/1 · 6th

17 May 2026 · Hamilton
Open 25/1 → final 33/1 · SP 25/1 · 12th

26 Apr 2026 · Musselburgh
Open 16/1 → final 33/1 · SP 33/1 · 7th

Raw Open → Now price change: 46.4% • -3.73 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 20 Aug 2026 — 6th • open 5/1 → final 8/1 (-5.84pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

50/1 51 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	15/2	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	15/2	+1.57pp10am → 1pm	13/2	-5.29pp1pm → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.73pp
Newcastle (AW)19 Sep 20265f · Class 5 · Standard · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+0.28ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+2.31pp10am → 1pm	9/1	+1.11pp1pm → SP	8/1	1st	+3.70pp
Post-race comment
Thirsk07 Aug 20265f · Class 5 · Good · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	3/1	+3.57ppOpen → 10am	5/2	+4.76pp10am → 1pm	2/1	-2.56pp1pm → SP	9/4	1st	+5.77pp
Post-race comment
Beverley28 Jul 20265f · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+14.72ppOpen → 10am	15/8	-9.72pp10am → 1pm	3/1	+1.67pp1pm → SP	11/4	1st	+6.67pp
Post-race comment
Ayr13 Jul 20266f · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/2	-6.35ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+2.78pp10am → 1pm	3/1	-2.78pp1pm → SP	7/2	1st	-6.35pp
Post-race comment
Hamilton11 Jul 20265f 7y · Class 6 · Good · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/2	+6.82ppOpen → 10am	3/1	+5.77pp10am → 1pm	9/4	-2.20pp1pm → SP	5/2	2nd	+10.39pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	15/2	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	15/2	+1.57pp10am → 1pm	13/2	-5.29pp1pm → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.73pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 11 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Azuinthejungle is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 19 Sep 2026 · 1st · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Standard×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -3.73pp

Possible next price: 15/2

11 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Hanney GirlDraw 3

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Jockey: Duran Fentiman

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 146/1132; first seen between 10am and 1pm 65/1132; first seen after 1pm 34/1132.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -1.10pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬆ CLASS RISE

Last run9 days ago · 22 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 10/3 → 10/3 | Avg: 10/3Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.

10am plunger

Early money horse (56%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 12/1Market avg 14/1

14/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1

PRICE MOVE

-1.10pp (-16.6%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

78th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE78th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 9 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Southwell (AW) on 22 Sep 2026 (-5.56pp); and finished 7th at Thirsk on 18 Apr 2026 (-1.53pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 16.6% • -1.10 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Southwell (AW), 22 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 7/2 → final 14/1 (-15.56pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

16/1 17 decimal Betfred

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	12/1	-1.03ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	14/1	-0.07pp1pm → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.10pp
Catterick08 Sep 20265f · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	9/2	+4.91ppOpen → 10am	10/3	-0.87pp10am → 1pm	7/2	+0.87pp1pm → SP	10/3	2nd	+4.91pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	12/1	-1.03ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	14/1	-0.07pp1pm → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-1.10pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Hanney Girl is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Catterick · 08 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Catterick✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y✓Ground: Good To Soft×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

9 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -1.10pp

Possible next price: 14/1

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Wen MoonDraw 11

Trainer: Ben Haslam

Jockey: Andrew Mullen

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ben Haslam (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 24/220; first seen between 10am and 1pm 15/220; first seen after 1pm 7/220.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 1/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -4.94pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬆ CLASS RISE

Last run23 days ago · 8 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.

Mid-market mover (25%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 8/1Market avg 16/1

16/1 ↑ 18/1 ↓ 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1

PRICE MOVE

-4.94pp (-80.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 4 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Ripon on 03 Jun 2026 (-19.44pp); and finished 15th at Ripon on 16 Apr 2026 (-6.62pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 80% • -4.94 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ripon, 03 Jun 2026 — 3rd • open 5/4 → final 7/2 (-22.22pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

20/1 21 decimal SportingIndex

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	8/1	+0.65ppOpen → 10am	15/2	-0.65pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-4.94pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.94pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	8/1	+0.65ppOpen → 10am	15/2	-0.65pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-4.94pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.94pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READMEANINGFUL DRIFT DETECTED

2 of 4 previous runs showed a larger drift, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Trainer-specific drift evidence begins at the -5pp band, which has not yet been reached. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Wen Moon has moved from 8/1 to 16/1, a developing drift (-4.94pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -4.94pp

Possible next price: 14/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Thunderstorm KatieDraw 12

Trainer: Jim Goldie

Jockey: Lauren Young(5)

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jim Goldie (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 82/607; first seen between 10am and 1pm 41/607; first seen after 1pm 16/607.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/13; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/13; first seen after 1pm 0/13.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -2.31pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬆ CLASS RISE

Last run3 days ago · 28 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

3 historical matches

1/3 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 13 | Fixed-odds range: 6/4 → 12/1 | Avg: 13/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 11/1Market avg 16/1

10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1

PRICE MOVE

-2.31pp (-38.3%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

85th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE85th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

2 of 13 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 1st at Ayr on 08 Aug 2026 (-3.41pp); and finished 7th at Hamilton on 03 May 2026 (-3.86pp).

When drifting like this: failed 2/3

When drifting like this: failed 2/3 — view runs

31 Jul 2026 · Musselburgh
Open 11/2 → final 15/2 · SP 11/2 · 2nd

03 May 2026 · Hamilton
Open 17/2 → final 12/1 · SP 12/1 · 7th

20 Jan 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 12/1 → final 18/1 · SP 20/1 · 9th

Raw Open → Now price change: 38.3% • -2.31 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Musselburgh, 31 Jul 2026 — 2nd • open 11/2 → final 15/2 (-3.62pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

80/1 81 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	11/1	+2.78ppOpen → 10am	8/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-5.09pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.31pp
Ayr17 Sep 20265f · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 20 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+0.93ppOpen → 10am	11/1	+0.76pp10am → 1pm	10/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	10/1	2nd	+1.68pp
Post-race comment
Ayr08 Aug 20266f · Class 6 · Good · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/1	-3.41ppOpen → 10am	10/1	+2.67pp10am → 1pm	15/2	-0.65pp1pm → SP	8/1	1st	-1.39pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh31 Jul 20265f 1y · Class 6 · Good · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/2	-1.10ppOpen → 10am	6/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	6/1	+1.10pp1pm → SP	11/2	2nd	+0.00pp
Post-race comment
Hamilton04 Jun 20266f 5y · Class 5 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/2	+2.80ppOpen → 10am	9/2	-1.52pp10am → 1pm	5/1	-1.28pp1pm → SP	11/2	2nd	+0.00pp
Post-race comment
Ayr20 May 20265f · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/2	+9.45ppOpen → 10am	13/8	+1.98pp10am → 1pm	6/4	+7.62pp1pm → SP	11/10	2nd	+19.05pp
Post-race comment
Hamilton15 May 20265f 7y · Class 6 · Good · 10 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	+4.24ppOpen → 10am	13/2	+2.05pp10am → 1pm	11/2	+1.28pp1pm → SP	5/1	2nd	+7.58pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	11/1	+2.78ppOpen → 10am	8/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-5.09pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.31pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 13 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Thunderstorm Katie is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ayr · 17 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Ayr✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y✓Ground: Good To Soft×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -2.31pp

Possible next price: 10/1

13 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

StartlingDraw 2

Trainer: John Wainwright

Jockey: Jason Hart

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer John Wainwright (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 4/66; first seen between 10am and 1pm 2/66; first seen after 1pm 2/66.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -12.22pp, placing it in this yard's 10pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 1/1 won (100%), compared with the yard's normal 10.6% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (1 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

⬆ CLASS RISE

Last run16 days ago · 15 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

3 historical matches

1/3 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 4/6 → 16/1 | Avg: 6/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (33%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 9/2Market avg 16/1

14/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1

PRICE MOVE

-12.22pp (-204.7%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 9 previous runs.

When drifting like this: failed 2/3

When drifting like this: failed 2/3 — view runs

08 Aug 2026 · Ayr
Open 8/1 → final 16/1 · SP 16/1 · 2nd

05 Jun 2026 · Thirsk
Open 20/1 → final 40/1 · SP 33/1 · 3rd

18 May 2026 · Redcar
Open 16/1 → final 66/1 · SP 66/1 · 8th

Raw Open → Now price change: 204.7% • -12.22 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ayr, 08 Aug 2026 — 2nd • open 8/1 → final 16/1 (-5.23pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

28/1 29 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	9/2	-5.68ppOpen → 10am	7/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	7/1	-6.53pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-12.22pp
Redcar15 Sep 20265f · Class 5 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/3	+2.86ppOpen → 10am	11/4	+1.90pp10am → 1pm	5/2	-1.90pp1pm → SP	11/4	1st	+2.86pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)03 Sep 20264f 215y · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/4	+4.44ppOpen → 10am	5/4	+3.17pp10am → 1pm	11/10	+2.38pp1pm → SP	EVS	1st	+10.00pp
Post-race comment
Ayr08 Aug 20265f · Class 6 · Good · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	8/1	-1.11ppOpen → 10am	9/1	-2.31pp10am → 1pm	12/1	-1.81pp1pm → SP	16/1	2nd	-5.23pp
Post-race comment
Ayr27 Jul 20265f · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+5.56ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-2.22pp1pm → SP	4/1	2nd	+3.33pp
Post-race comment
Leicester25 Jun 20265f · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 3 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/5	+25.97ppOpen → 10am	2/5	-11.55pp10am → 1pm	4/6	+0.00pp1pm → SP	4/6	2nd	+14.43pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)18 Jun 20264f 214y · Class 5 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	8/1	-1.11ppOpen → 10am	9/1	-0.91pp10am → 1pm	10/1	+0.91pp1pm → SP	9/1	2nd	-1.11pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	9/2	-5.68ppOpen → 10am	7/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	7/1	-6.53pp1pm → now	16/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-12.22pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 9 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 1/1 won (100%), compared with the yard's normal 10.6% strike rate. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Startling has moved from 9/2 to 16/1, a significant drift (-12.22pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Redcar · 15 Sep 2026 · 1st · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Redcar✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held or strengthened.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -12.22pp

Possible next price: 14/1

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Shes Got A BrotherDraw 1

Trainer: Michael & David Easterby

Jockey: Rhys Elliott(5)

🟢 Needs Support (23%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Michael & David Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 54/494; first seen between 10am and 1pm 30/494; first seen after 1pm 16/494.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -2.89pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run13 days ago · 18 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: 10am

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: EVS → 10/1 | Avg: 11/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (38%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 11/1Market avg 18/1

11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 10/1 → 10/1 → 10/1

PRICE MOVE

-2.89pp (-53.0%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

2 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Epsom on 05 Jun 2026 (-4.27pp); and finished 1st at Southwell (AW) on 09 Apr 2026 (-4.33pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 53% • -2.89 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Ayr, 20 Jun 2026 — 5th • open 16/1 → final 28/1 (-2.43pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 101 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	11/1	+2.19ppOpen → 10am	17/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	17/2	-5.08pp1pm → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.89pp
Southwell (AW)28 Apr 20264f 214y · Class 3 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/2	+25.40ppOpen → 10am	11/10	-2.16pp10am → 1pm	6/5	+9.19pp1pm → SP	5/6	1st	+32.42pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)09 Apr 20264f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	10/1	-4.33ppOpen → 10am	20/1	+5.76pp10am → 1pm	17/2	-2.19pp1pm → SP	11/1	1st	-0.76pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	11/1	+2.19ppOpen → 10am	17/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	17/2	-5.08pp1pm → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.89pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 2 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 1 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Shes Got A Brother is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 09 Apr 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Standard✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

York, 19 Aug 2026 — 10th • open 14/1 → 1pm 15/2 → final 17/2

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -2.89pp

Possible next price: 9/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

LipsinkDraw 10

Trainer: Michael Appleby

Jockey: Alistair Rawlinson

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Michael Appleby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 52/436; first seen between 10am and 1pm 21/436; first seen after 1pm 17/436.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -0.72pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run27 days ago · 4 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Mid

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: 15/2 → 33/1 | Avg: 20/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and is not attracting bookmaker support.

Mid-market mover (50%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 16/1Market avg 18/1

20/1 ↑ 22/1 ↓ 20/1 → 20/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 20/1 → 20/1 → 20/1 ↓ 18/1 ↑ 20/1

PRICE MOVE

-0.72pp (-13.9%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE25th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

3 of 4 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 11th at Haydock on 04 Sep 2026 (-3.39pp); finished 10th at Hamilton on 21 Aug 2026 (-3.54pp); and finished 2nd at Sandown on 12 Jun 2026 (-7.26pp).

Raw Open → Now price change: 13.9% • -0.72 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Sandown, 12 Jun 2026 — 2nd • open 8/1 → final 33/1 (-8.17pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

22/1 23 decimal Betfred

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	16/1	+1.81ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	12/1	-2.53pp1pm → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.72pp
Sandown29 Aug 20265f 10y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+0.28ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	12/1	+2.31pp1pm → SP	9/1	2nd	+2.59pp
Post-race comment
Sandown12 Jun 20265f 10y · Class 4 · Good · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	8/1	-7.26ppOpen → 10am	25/1	-0.90pp10am → 1pm	33/1	+0.00pp1pm → SP	33/1	2nd	-8.17pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	16/1	+1.81ppOpen → 10am	12/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	12/1	-2.53pp1pm → now	18/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-0.72pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

3 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is not unusual for this horse. Today’s move: Lipsink is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Sandown · 29 Aug 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Sandown✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y✓Ground: Good To Soft✓Class: Class 4

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This price often moves during the day, so keep checking it. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -0.72pp

Possible next price: 20/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

AnaisaDraw 7

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Jockey: Sean Kirrane

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 146/1132; first seen between 10am and 1pm 65/1132; first seen after 1pm 34/1132.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -3.16pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run16 days ago · 15 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (63%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 12/1Market avg 22/1

12/1 ↑ 14/1 ↑ 18/1 ↓ 12/1 → 12/1 ↑ 14/1 → 14/1 ↑ 18/1 ↓ 12/1 → 12/1

PRICE MOVE

-3.16pp (-69.5%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 8 previous runs.

Raw Open → Now price change: 69.5% • -3.16 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: York, 24 Jul 2026 — 6th • open 11/1 → final 20/1 (-3.57pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 101 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	12/1	+1.40ppOpen → 10am	10/1	+0.91pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-5.46pp1pm → now	22/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.16pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	12/1	+1.40ppOpen → 10am	10/1	+0.91pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-5.46pp1pm → now	22/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-3.16pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 8 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. Today’s move: Anaisa is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This is weaker than its usual early pattern; the price may shorten again later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -3.16pp

Possible next price: 10/1

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Call MargotDraw 5

Trainer: Gemma Tutty

Jockey: Sam James

🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Gemma Tutty (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 18/189; first seen between 10am and 1pm 5/189; first seen after 1pm 3/189.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/10; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/10; first seen after 1pm 0/10.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -6.72pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 2/14 won (14.3%), compared with the yard's normal 10.1% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (14 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run18 days ago · 13 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

5 historical matches

1/5 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 10 | Fixed-odds range: 5/1 → 18/1 | Avg: 11/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (30%)

15:58Musselburgh

Opened 9/1Market avg 28/1

25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 → 25/1 ↓ 22/1 ↑ 25/1 → 25/1 ↓ 22/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 22/1

PRICE MOVE

-6.72pp (-205.2%)

Drifting: the market price is longer than at the open.

Move evidence

90th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE90th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 10 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 6th at Hamilton on 17 Jun 2026 (-10.77pp).

When drifting like this: failed 4/5

When drifting like this: failed 4/5 — view runs

13 Sep 2026 · Doncaster
Open 11/2 → final 10/1 · SP 10/1 · 9th

19 Aug 2026 · York
Open 20/1 → final 33/1 · SP 33/1 · 13th

17 Jun 2026 · Hamilton
Open 9/4 → final 4/1 · SP 4/1 · 6th

28 Feb 2026 · Southwell (AW)
Open 13/2 → final 9/1 · SP 8/1 · 2nd

23 Jan 2026 · Southwell (AW)
Open 16/1 → final 28/1 · SP 28/1 · 5th

Raw Open → Now price change: 205.2% • -6.72 probability points

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Hamilton, 17 Jun 2026 — 6th • open 9/4 → final 4/1 (-10.77pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 101 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	9/1	-2.31ppOpen → 10am	12/1	-1.03pp10am → 1pm	14/1	-3.39pp1pm → now	28/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-6.72pp
Epsom05 Jun 20265f · Class 2 · Good · 16 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	28/1	+2.04ppOpen → 10am	18/1	+2.43pp10am → 1pm	12/1	-2.43pp1pm → SP	18/1	2nd	+2.04pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)09 Apr 20264f 214y · Class 5 · Standard · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	5/1	+3.33ppOpen → 10am	4/1	-1.82pp10am → 1pm	9/2	-4.85pp1pm → SP	13/2	1st	-3.33pp
Post-race comment
Southwell (AW)28 Feb 20264f 214y · Class 5 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	-4.24ppOpen → 10am	10/1	+2.67pp10am → 1pm	15/2	-0.65pp1pm → SP	8/1	2nd	-2.22pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 12 runners	9/1	-2.31ppOpen → 10am	12/1	-1.03pp10am → 1pm	14/1	-3.39pp1pm → now	28/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-6.72pp
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READMEANINGFUL DRIFT DETECTED

Just 1 of 10 previous runs showed a larger drift, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 2/14 won (14.3%), compared with the yard's normal 10.1% strike rate. Today’s move: Call Margot has moved from 9/1 to 28/1, a developing drift (-6.72pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Epsom · 05 Jun 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Epsom✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 2

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -6.72pp

Possible next price: 20/1

10 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Race market overview as at 00:59

Supported2 of 12 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Montezuma +7.41pp
Drifting4 of 12 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Startling -12.22pp
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

16:33Musselburgh • 5f1y • Class 6 • Going: Good To Soft

7 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

Lairy MaryDraw 2

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Jockey: Duran Fentiman

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 146/1132; first seen between 10am and 1pm 65/1132; first seen after 1pm 34/1132.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 1/7; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/7; first seen after 1pm 0/7.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +7.62pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 41/181 won (22.7%); Open→SP 43/190 won (22.6%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 30.9% (25/81).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run8 days ago · 23 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Early PM

Runs: 7 | Fixed-odds range: 5/1 → 5/1 | Avg: 5/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

10am plunger

Early money horse (29%)

Late move vs early profile

16:33Musselburgh

Opened 11/2Market avg 2/1

2/1 → 2/1 → 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 → 2/1 → 2/1 → 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↓ 15/8

PRICE MOVE

+7.62pp (+33.1%)

NR adjusted

Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: +54.0% • +18.09pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +10.47pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/4 @ 13:57

NR @ 13:57: 4/1 → 9/4 (+10.47pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +7.62pp

Move evidence

86th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE86th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 7 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 1st at Beverley on 27 May 2026 (+7.94pp).

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Beverley, 27 May 2026 — 1st • open 6/1 → final 5/1 (+2.38pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

9/4 3.25 decimal Unibet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	11/2	+6.84ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+11.11pp10am → 1pm	2/1	-10.33pp1pm → now	2/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+7.62ppNR adjusted
Beverley27 May 20265f · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/1	+7.94ppOpen → 10am	7/2	-4.04pp10am → 1pm	9/2	-2.80pp1pm → SP	11/2	1st	+1.10pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	11/2	+6.84ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+11.11pp10am → 1pm	2/1	-10.33pp1pm → now	2/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+7.62ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT

Tim Easterby runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 41/181 (a 22.7% Open→1PM strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 9.5% strike rate. Just 1 of 7 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 5 to Class 6, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Lairy Mary has shortened from 11/2 to 2/1, which is support (+7.62pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Beverley · 27 May 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Beverley✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good To Firm✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

7 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +7.62pp

Possible next price: 7/4

7 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

Yorkshire DreamDraw 3

Trainer: Ben Haslam

Jockey: William Pyle

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Ben Haslam (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 24/220; first seen between 10am and 1pm 15/220; first seen after 1pm 7/220.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +1.41pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 14/34 won (41.2%); Open→SP 9/31 won (29%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 42.9% (6/14).

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run29 days ago · 2 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Usually attracts bookmaker support

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Opening

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

No clear bookmaker move yet.

10am plunger

Early money horse (50%)

16:33Musselburgh

Opened 6/1Market avg 3/1

3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 ↑ 10/3 ↓ 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1

PRICE MOVE

+1.41pp (+9.0%)

NR adjusted

Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: +44.3% • +11.35pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +9.94pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 3/1 @ 13:57

NR @ 13:57: 11/2 → 3/1 (+9.94pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +1.41pp

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

Only 1 of 4 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Newcastle (AW) on 02 Sep 2026 (+4.55pp).

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Newcastle (AW), 02 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 20/1 → final 12/1 (+3.15pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

10/3 4.33 decimal William Hill

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	6/1	+2.38ppOpen → 10am	5/1	+10.00pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-10.97pp1pm → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.41ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	6/1	+2.38ppOpen → 10am	5/1	+10.00pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-10.97pp1pm → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+1.41ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Today’s move: Yorkshire Dream is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This horse often keeps shortening after early support. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +1.41pp

Possible next price: 11/4

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

CalefDraw 5

Trainer: David O'Meara

Jockey: Jason Hart

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer David O'Meara (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 67/717; first seen between 10am and 1pm 52/717; first seen after 1pm 31/717.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 2/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -4.62pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run10 days ago · 21 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Early money horse (33%)

16:33Musselburgh

Opened 9/2Market avg 10/3

10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3 ↓ 11/4 ↑ 3/1 ↑ 10/3 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3

PRICE MOVE

-4.62pp (-34.0%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: +22.9% • +5.41pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +10.03pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 3/1 @ 13:57

NR @ 13:57: 11/2 → 3/1 (+10.03pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -4.62pp

Move evidence

89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE

Only 1 of 9 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 3rd at Wolverhampton (AW) on 21 Sep 2026 (-7.13pp).

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 21 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 3/1 → final 6/1 (-11.03pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/2 4.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	9/2	-1.52ppOpen → 10am	5/1	+8.33pp10am → 1pm	3/1	-11.43pp1pm → now	10/3Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.62ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	9/2	-1.52ppOpen → 10am	5/1	+8.33pp10am → 1pm	3/1	-11.43pp1pm → now	10/3Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.62ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READMEANINGFUL DRIFT DETECTED

Just 1 of 9 previous runs showed a larger drift, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. Trainer-specific drift evidence begins at the -5pp band, which has not yet been reached. Today’s move: Calef has moved from 9/2 to 10/3, a developing drift (-4.62pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

Recorded examples where 5pp+ early support was followed by a longer final price:

Wolverhampton (AW), 07 Sep 2026 — 4th • open 17/2 → 10am 4/1 → final 5/1

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

8 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -4.62pp

Possible next price: 10/3

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: 11am was biggest

Weakening late

Tricky JennyDraw 4

Trainer: James Owen

Jockey: Clifford Lee

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer James Owen (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 139/892; first seen between 10am and 1pm 80/892; first seen after 1pm 40/892.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/6; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/6; first seen after 1pm 0/6.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -8.12pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 23/137 won (16.8%), compared with the yard's normal 16.3% strike rate.
The sample is reliable enough to inspect, but the strike-rate fall is not large enough to call a serious trainer warning.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run39 days ago · 23 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 6 | Fixed-odds range: 7/1 → 7/1 | Avg: 7/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

Early money horse (33%)

16:33Musselburgh

Opened 4/1Market avg 13/2

13/2 ↑ 15/2 ↓ 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2 ↑ 7/1 → 7/1 ↓ 13/2 → 13/2 → 13/2

PRICE MOVE

-8.12pp (-68.3%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -52.4% • -6.88pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +1.24pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 15/2 @ 13:57

NR @ 13:57: 17/2 → 15/2 (+1.24pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -8.12pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 6 previous runs.

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Brighton, 23 Aug 2026 — 6th • open 5/2 → final 5/1 (-11.11pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

15/2 8.5 decimal Betfred

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	4/1	-7.50ppOpen → 10am	7/1	+7.50pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-8.12pp1pm → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-8.12ppNR adjusted
Bath15 Jul 20265f 10y · Class 5 · Firm · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	8/1	-0.58ppOpen → 10am	17/2	+1.97pp10am → 1pm	7/1	+0.83pp1pm → SP	13/2	2nd	+2.22pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	4/1	-7.50ppOpen → 10am	7/1	+7.50pp10am → 1pm	4/1	-8.12pp1pm → now	13/2Current; SP pending	Pending	-8.12ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 6 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 23/137 won (16.8%), compared with the yard's normal 16.3% strike rate. Despite dropping from Class 5 to Class 6, the market is still weakening. Today’s move: Tricky Jenny has moved from 4/1 to 13/2, a significant drift (-8.12pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Bath · 15 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Bath✓Trip (within ½f): 5f 1y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Firm×Class: Today Class 6 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have often faded. Be cautious.Comparable moves have had few top-two finishes. Be cautious.

Did the early price move fade?

No documented early-support reversal in this horse’s recorded checkpoint sample. The older wording referred to finishing results, not a verified intraday price fade.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

6 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -8.12pp

Possible next price: 6/1

6 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: 10am was biggest

Weakening late

Savoy BlueDraw 1

Trainer: Jim Goldie

Jockey: Lauren Young(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jim Goldie (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 82/607; first seen between 10am and 1pm 41/607; first seen after 1pm 16/607.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +2.87pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/108 won (13.9%); Open→SP 15/105 won (14.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 19% (8/42).

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run37 days ago · 25 Aug 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Early PM

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

10am plunger

Mid-market mover (50%)

16:33Musselburgh

Opened 25/1Market avg 9/1

9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 8/1 → 8/1 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 17/2 ↑ 9/1

PRICE MOVE

+2.87pp (+42.7%)

NR adjusted

Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: +61.8% • +6.21pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +3.34pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 10/1 @ 13:57

NR @ 13:57: 16/1 → 10/1 (+3.34pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +2.87pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 4 previous runs.

Built 16:34 → 16:39

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Musselburgh, 25 Aug 2026 — 4th • open 20/1 → final 18/1 (+0.50pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/1 12 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	25/1	+2.82ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+3.33pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-3.28pp1pm → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+2.87ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	25/1	+2.82ppOpen → 10am	14/1	+3.33pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-3.28pp1pm → now	9/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+2.87ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 4 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. Today’s move: Savoy Blue is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This price often moves during the day, so keep checking it. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +2.87pp

Possible next price: 9/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Limited data: this runner has one previous run at Musselburgh. Do not treat that single result as a reliable course pattern.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

North CoatesDraw 6

Trainer: Michael & David Easterby

Jockey: James Sullivan

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Michael & David Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 54/494; first seen between 10am and 1pm 30/494; first seen after 1pm 16/494.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -2.34pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run3 days ago · 28 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

2 historical matches

0/2 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.

10am plunger

Early money horse (25%)

16:33Musselburgh

Opened 12/1Market avg 12/1

11/1 ↑ 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 10/1 → 10/1 ↑ 11/1 → 11/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 11/1 → 11/1

PRICE MOVE

-2.34pp (-43.6%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -2.8% • -0.21pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +2.13pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 11/1 @ 13:57

NR @ 13:57: 16/1 → 11/1 (+2.13pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -2.34pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 4 previous runs.

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Pontefract, 16 Aug 2026 — 5th • open 25/1 → final 66/1 (-2.35pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

18/1 19 decimal Paddy Power

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	12/1	+0.64ppOpen → 10am	11/1	+1.67pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-4.64pp1pm → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.34ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday5f 1y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	12/1	+0.64ppOpen → 10am	11/1	+1.67pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-4.64pp1pm → now	12/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-2.34ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 4 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: North Coates is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -2.34pp

Possible next price: 11/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Stay On Tab

NON-RUNNERNR @ 13:57

Race market overview as at 00:59

Supported1 of 6 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Lairy Mary +7.62pp
Drifting2 of 6 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Tricky Jenny -8.12pp
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

17:08Musselburgh • 1m5f216y • Class 6 • Going: Good To Soft

7 runners

Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

RiddikulusDraw 5

Trainer: Grant Tuer

Jockey: Oliver Stammers

🟢 Needs Support (15%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Grant Tuer (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 21/186; first seen between 10am and 1pm 11/186; first seen after 1pm 7/186.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/8; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/8; first seen after 1pm 0/8.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -18.05pp, placing it in this yard's 15pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 15pp+ by 10am, 0/4 won (0%), compared with the yard's normal 11.8% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (4 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run47 days ago · 15 Aug 2026

Distance changeUp 4.2f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

1 historical matches

0/1 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Opening

Runs: 8 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 11/1 | Avg: 13/2Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

Early money horse (38%)

17:08Musselburgh

Opened 15/8Market avg 3/1

10/3 → 10/3 ↓ 5/2 ↑ 3/1 ↓ 11/4 ↑ 10/3 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 3/1 ↓ 11/4 ↑ 3/1

PRICE MOVE

-18.05pp (-109.8%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -38.3% • -9.55pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +8.50pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 11/10 @ 07:05

NR @ 07:05: 6/4 → 11/10 (+8.50pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -18.05pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 8 previous runs.

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Newcastle (AW), 14 Feb 2026 — 4th • open 10/1 → final 40/1 (-6.65pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

7/2 4.5 decimal Bet365

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	15/8	-2.99ppOpen → 10am	6/4	-9.23pp10am → 1pm	9/4	-5.83pp1pm → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-18.05ppNR adjusted
Ripon15 Aug 20261m 1f 170y · Class 6 · Good · 13 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	8/1	+0.65ppOpen → 10am	15/2	+0.74pp10am → 1pm	7/1	+1.79pp1pm → SP	6/1	2nd	+3.17pp
Post-race comment
Ripon27 Jul 20261m 1f 170y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	4/1	+0.00ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+5.00pp10am → 1pm	3/1	+3.57pp1pm → SP	5/2	1st	+8.57pp
Post-race comment
Ripon06 Jul 20261m 4f 10y · Class 6 · Good · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+0.64ppOpen → 10am	11/1	+0.76pp10am → 1pm	10/1	-0.76pp1pm → SP	11/1	1st	+0.64pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	15/8	-2.99ppOpen → 10am	6/4	-9.23pp10am → 1pm	9/4	-5.83pp1pm → now	3/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-18.05ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 8 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 15pp+ by 10am, 0/4 won (0%), compared with the yard's normal 11.8% strike rate. Today’s move: Riddikulus has moved from 15/8 to 3/1, a significant drift (-18.05pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ripon · 15 Aug 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Ripon×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 5f 216y · previous 1m 1f 170y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

All 3 previous top-two finishes came with support of 0.64pp+.

At 0.64pp+: 3/4 finished 1st or 2nd (75%).

Today: -18.05pp — trigger not reached.

Possible next price: 11/4

8 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Simple StarDraw 2

Trainer: Gary Rutherford

Jockey: Sam James

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Gary Rutherford (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 5/83; first seen between 10am and 1pm 3/83; first seen after 1pm 5/83.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/9; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/9; first seen after 1pm 0/9.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +9.03pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/6 won (0%); Open→SP 0/12 won (0%).
No higher tracked band currently improves this yard's Open→SP strike rate.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run19 days ago · 12 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 4.1f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 9 | Fixed-odds range: 3/1 → 3/1 | Avg: 3/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

10am plunger

Late money horse (33%)

Late support match

17:08Musselburgh

Opened 9/1Market avg 4/1

4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2

PRICE MOVE

+9.03pp (+47.5%)

NR adjusted

Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: +51.7% • +10.69pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +1.66pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 13/2 @ 07:05

NR @ 07:05: 15/2 → 13/2 (+1.66pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +9.03pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Strongest support recorded across 9 previous runs.

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Musselburgh, 05 Jun 2026 — 2nd • open 7/2 → final 3/1 (+2.78pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

11/2 6.5 decimal BetTom

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	9/1	+19.11ppOpen → 10am	9/4	-4.10pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-5.98pp1pm → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+9.03ppNR adjusted
Musselburgh05 Jun 20261m 7f 217y · Class 5 · Good · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	7/2	+0.87ppOpen → 10am	10/3	+3.57pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-4.44pp1pm → SP	7/2	2nd	+0.00pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	9/1	+19.11ppOpen → 10am	9/4	-4.10pp10am → 1pm	11/4	-5.98pp1pm → now	4/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+9.03ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S STRONGEST RECORDED SUPPORT

Across 9 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support. The trainer evidence is important here: At 5pp+: Open→1PM 0/6 won (0%); Open→SP 0/12 won (0%). The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 4 to Class 6, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Simple Star has shortened from 9/1 to 4/1, which is strong support (+9.03pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Musselburgh · 05 Jun 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Musselburgh×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 5f 216y · previous 1m 7f 217y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good×Class: Today Class 6 · previous Class 5

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Limited data: one similar run only.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

9 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: +9.03pp

Gamble exhaustion: Moves of this size have usually been close to exhaustion; chasing the shortened price carries extra risk.

After a 8–10pp move: 36% shortened another 1pp • 22% another 2pp • 19% another 3pp • 10% another 5pp (n=1321)

Possible next price: 5/1

9 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
At Musselburgh this horse has recorded 1 placed effort from 7 runs. The current market is 86% shorter than usual against an average course SP profile of 34.6.

Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

Falaise BlancDraw 4

Trainer: Katie Scott

Jockey: Jason Hart

🟢 Needs Support (7%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Katie Scott (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 14/166; first seen between 10am and 1pm 7/166; first seen after 1pm 5/166.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 3/14; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/14; first seen after 1pm 0/14.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -11.91pp, placing it in this yard's 10pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 0/3 won (0%), compared with the yard's normal 5.4% strike rate.
Trainer drift evidence is limited (3 runners), so treat it as context rather than a reliable warning.

↔ SAME CLASS

Last run6 days ago · 25 Sep 2026

Distance changeUp 3.8f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

7 historical matches

0/7 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 14 | Fixed-odds range: 7/2 → 12/1 | Avg: 6/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price has drifted clearly. Bookmaker support is against this horse.

10am plunger

Late money horse (29%)

17:08Musselburgh

Opened 9/2Market avg 10/1

7/4 → 7/4 ↑ 11/4 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 9/4 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↑ 2/1

PRICE MOVE

-11.91pp (-190.0%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -100.4% • -9.11pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +2.80pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 10/3 @ 07:05

NR @ 07:05: 4/1 → 10/3 (+2.80pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -11.91pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 14 previous runs.

When drifting like this: failed 7/7

When drifting like this: failed 7/7 — view runs

25 Sep 2026 · Newcastle (AW)
Open 16/1 → final 33/1 · SP 33/1 · 5th

27 Aug 2026 · Carlisle
Open 7/2 → final 7/1 · SP 15/2 · 4th

31 Jul 2026 · Musselburgh
Open 9/2 → final 8/1 · SP 15/2 · 7th

19 Jun 2026 · Ayr
Open 5/1 → final 9/1 · SP 9/1 · 5th

11 May 2026 · Catterick
Open 20/1 → final 50/1 · SP 50/1 · 8th

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Carlisle, 27 Aug 2026 — 4th • open 7/2 → final 7/1 (-9.72pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

100/1 101 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	9/2	+9.79ppOpen → 10am	9/4	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	9/4	-21.70pp1pm → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-11.91ppNR adjusted
Hamilton11 Aug 20261m 4f 15y · Class 6 · Good · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	11/2	-2.05ppOpen → 10am	13/2	+2.05pp10am → 1pm	11/2	+1.28pp1pm → SP	5/1	2nd	+1.28pp
Post-race comment
Musselburgh30 Jun 20261m 4f 104y · Class 6 · Good · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	13/2	+15.24ppOpen → 10am	5/2	-6.35pp10am → 1pm	7/2	+0.87pp1pm → SP	10/3	2nd	+9.76pp
Post-race comment
Hamilton25 Jun 20261m 5f 16y · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	6/1	+5.71ppOpen → 10am	4/1	+2.22pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-2.22pp1pm → SP	4/1	2nd	+5.71pp
Post-race comment
Hamilton04 Jun 20261m 4f 15y · Class 6 · Good · 11 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	12/1	+1.95ppOpen → 10am	10/1	-2.42pp10am → 1pm	14/1	+1.03pp1pm → SP	12/1	2nd	+0.55pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	9/2	+9.79ppOpen → 10am	9/4	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	9/4	-21.70pp1pm → now	10/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-11.91ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 14 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 10pp+ by 10am, 0/3 won (0%), compared with the yard's normal 5.4% strike rate. Today’s move: Falaise Blanc has moved from 9/2 to 10/1, a significant drift (-11.91pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Musselburgh · 30 Jun 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match

✓Track: Musselburgh×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 5f 216y · previous 1m 4f 104y×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Good✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

Similar moves have usually held their position.

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

No positive support trigger.

This horse has previously finished 1st or 2nd without shortening from its opening price.

Today: -11.91pp

Possible next price: 9/4

14 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Course record
Course evidence at Musselburgh stands at 1 placed effort from 3 runs. Today's market is close to its historical average compared with a long-term course average SP of 11.3.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Bollin NeilDraw 1

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Jockey: Sean Kirrane

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Tim Easterby (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 146/1132; first seen between 10am and 1pm 65/1132; first seen after 1pm 34/1132.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 1/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -6.21pp, placing it in this yard's 5pp+ 10am drift comparison.
When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 7/90 won (7.8%), compared with the yard's normal 9.5% strike rate.
The sample is reliable enough to inspect, but the strike-rate fall is not large enough to call a serious trainer warning.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run20 days ago · 11 Sep 2026

Distance changeDown 1.9f from last run

No consistent price pattern yet

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Late PM

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: 12/1 → 12/1 | Avg: 12/1Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.

10am plunger

Best at SP (75%)

17:08Musselburgh

Opened 13/2Market avg 11/1

9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 9/2 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1

PRICE MOVE

-6.21pp (-87.3%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -56.9% • -4.84pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +1.38pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 4/1 @ 07:05

NR @ 07:05: 9/2 → 4/1 (+1.38pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -6.21pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 4 previous runs.

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Chester, 11 Sep 2026 — 7th • open 12/1 → final 14/1 (-1.03pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

80/1 81 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	13/2	+7.51ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-13.73pp1pm → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-6.21ppNR adjusted
Ripon01 Sep 20262m · Class 6 · Soft · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾	16/1	+2.78ppOpen → 10am	11/1	-0.64pp10am → 1pm	12/1	-2.43pp1pm → SP	18/1	2nd	-0.29pp
Post-race comment

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	13/2	+7.51ppOpen → 10am	7/2	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	7/2	-13.73pp1pm → now	11/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-6.21ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 4 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. The trainer’s drift record adds context: When this trainer's runners had drifted by 5pp+ by 10am, 7/90 won (7.8%), compared with the yard's normal 9.5% strike rate. Despite dropping from Class 5 to Class 6, the market is still weakening. Today’s move: Bollin Neil has moved from 13/2 to 11/1, a developing drift (-6.21pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ripon · 01 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match

×Track: Today Musselburgh · previous Ripon×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 5f 216y · previous 2m×Ground: Today Good To Soft · previous Soft✓Class: Class 6

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

The price has been unpredictable before and may move sharply again. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 1 top-two finish.

Today: -6.21pp

Possible next price: 7/2

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Togeather ForeverDraw 7

Trainer: Jim Goldie

Jockey: Rhys Elliott(5)

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Jim Goldie (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 82/607; first seen between 10am and 1pm 41/607; first seen after 1pm 16/607.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/4; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/4; first seen after 1pm 0/4.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is +2.64pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp support band.
At 5pp+: Open→1PM 15/108 won (13.9%); Open→SP 15/105 won (14.3%).
Watch for 10pp+: the yard's Open→SP strike rate rises to 19% (8/42).

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run6 days ago · 25 Sep 2026

Distance changeSimilar trip to last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 4 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is shortening. Bookmaker support is building, so keep watching.

10am plunger

Late money horse (50%)

Late support match

17:08Musselburgh

Opened 25/1Market avg 14/1

12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 ↑ 14/1 ↓ 12/1 → 12/1

PRICE MOVE

+2.64pp (+40.7%)

NR adjusted

Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: +45.7% • +3.23pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +0.60pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 22/1 @ 07:05

NR @ 07:05: 25/1 → 22/1 (+0.60pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +2.64pp

Move evidence

75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE

NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE

Only 1 of 4 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 12th at Carlisle on 09 Sep 2026 (+3.59pp).

Built 00:02 → 17:16

Previous market evidence

Strongest previous support: Haydock, 25 Sep 2026 — 8th • open 50/1 → final 40/1 (+0.48pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

22/1 23 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	25/1	+6.67ppOpen → 10am	8/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-4.03pp1pm → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+2.64ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	25/1	+6.67ppOpen → 10am	8/1	+0.00pp10am → 1pm	8/1	-4.03pp1pm → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	+2.64ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READNO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YET

Just 1 of 4 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse. The horse drops from Class 5 to Class 6, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Togeather Forever is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This early support is unusual; the price has often drifted again later. (moderate)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

4 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: +2.64pp

Possible next price: 12/1

4 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

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Best time: Open was biggest

Weakening late

Tide LinesDraw 6

Trainer: Charlie Johnston

Jockey: Andrew Mullen

PRO RACECARD ↗

Horse & Trainer Evidence

When has support appeared?

Trainer Charlie Johnston (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 71/697; first seen between 10am and 1pm 46/697; first seen after 1pm 25/697.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

This horse (5pp+ support from open): by 10am 0/3; first seen between 10am and 1pm 0/3; first seen after 1pm 0/3.

No clear usual support time in this sample.

Complete historical open, 10am, 1pm and final/SP checkpoints only. This records market prices, not who placed a bet.

Trainer market read
Today's move is -4.44pp. It remains below the first tracked 5pp+ trainer drift band.
The move has not reached the first tracked trainer drift band, so no trainer drift strike-rate comparison is being applied.
Watch for -5pp: that is the first point at which the matching trainer drift record becomes relevant.

⬇ CLASS DROP

Last run43 days ago · 19 Aug 2026

Distance changeUp 2f from last run

Often drifts in the market

📊 Market Behaviour Rating

3 historical matches

0/3 finished 1st or 2nd
Best Time: Pre-Off

Runs: 3 | Fixed-odds range: - → - | Avg: -Fractional bookmaker prices recorded when this horse finished 1st or 2nd.

The price is drifting and this horse often weakens in the market. Support is hard to justify.

Late money horse (67%)

17:08Musselburgh

Opened 9/1Market avg 14/1

12/1 → 12/1 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1 → 12/1

PRICE MOVE

-4.44pp (-80.0%)

NR adjusted

Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.

Raw Open → Now: -46.2% • -3.16pp

Measured NR price effect removed: +1.28pp

Latest confirmed post-NR price: 8/1 @ 07:05

NR @ 07:05: 9/1 → 8/1 (+1.28pp removed)

GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -4.44pp

Move evidence

100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)

EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE

Largest drift recorded across 3 previous runs.

When drifting like this: failed 3/3

When drifting like this: failed 3/3 — view runs

19 Aug 2026 · Kempton (AW)
Open 20/1 → final 100/1 · SP 100/1 · 10th

08 Jul 2026 · Kempton (AW)
Open 28/1 → final 50/1 · SP 25/1 · 7th

22 Apr 2026 · Catterick
Open 12/1 → final 25/1 · SP 25/1 · 4th

Previous market evidence

Largest previous drift: Kempton (AW), 19 Aug 2026 — 10th • open 20/1 → final 100/1 (-3.97pp).

BEST FIXED ODDS

40/1 41 decimal LiveScore Bet

What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Each change compares adjacent checkpoints; measured non-runner effects are removed from today’s moves.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	9/1	-0.17ppOpen → 10am	8/1	-1.11pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-3.16pp1pm → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.44ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.

Racecourse	Open	Open → 10am	10am	10am → 1pm	1pm	Last → SP/Now	SP / current	Finish	Total pp
MusselburghToday1m 5f 216y · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 6 runners	9/1	-0.17ppOpen → 10am	8/1	-1.11pp10am → 1pm	9/1	-3.16pp1pm → now	14/1Current; SP pending	Pending	-4.44ppNR adjusted
Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions.

MARKET FORM READTHIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFT

Across 3 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift. Trainer-specific drift evidence begins at the -5pp band, which has not yet been reached. Despite dropping from Class 4 to Class 6, the market is still weakening. Today’s move: Tide Lines has moved from 9/1 to 14/1, a developing drift (-4.44pp).

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN NEXT

This matches its usual pattern; support has often arrived later. (strong)

HISTORICAL DELIVERY TRIGGER

Limited evidence — no reliable trigger yet.

3 tracked runs • 0 top-two finishes.

Today: -4.44pp

Possible next price: 12/1

3 runs (Market Form)

TIMING & CONTEXT

EARLY BETTING MARKET

Previous evening · average odds · UK time

Open this section to load the evening prices.

Best time: Now was biggest

Weakening late

Aighear

NON-RUNNERNR @ 07:05

Race market overview as at 00:59

Supported1 of 6 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Simple Star +9.03pp
Drifting4 of 6 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Riddikulus -18.05pp
Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.

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